Friday, April 30, 2010

Technically Speaking Time To Buy YRI-T



Highlighting: Yamana Gold Inc. (Public, TSE:YRI)

The markets get battered and gold stocks rally. This was the theme of the day on Tuesday that saw Gold stocks rally to gains of as much as 2%. So I suppose you want a Gold play… well here it is. Yamana Gold Inc. gained just over 2% on the day as investors sought safety in Gold following the bottom falling out in equities. Wednesday brings upon earnings from Goldcorp and Barrick, so best bet is to wait for the morning earnings report to make your play.

Stocks were clobbered today, averaging losses of 2.29% on volumes over 30% higher than the day previous. Of the 1661 stocks analyzed, only 145 advanced, 1506 declined and the last 10 were dead even…or possibly just dead. Overbought levels have come way down, now only in the single digit percentage points according to stochastics and RSI. Small-Caps won the session yet again, losing the least amount of value at 2.32% on average. Mid-Caps and Large-Caps rounded out the losses at 2.39% and 2.68%, respectively. Bolstering the losses amongst the stocks analyzed were equities traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange, which only saw losses of 0.89%.

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV (YRI.TO) Seasonality Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 19 and a sell date of February 22, investors have benefited from a total return of 2732.96% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 8 of those periods. Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of December 3 and a sell date of February 22, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 1795.55% with positive results in 10 of those periods. The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 4.53%. Comments:

Yamana is rebounding from a significant support level at $10 after finding significant volume on Tuesday, floating the stock amongst the losses present in the market. With volatility increasing, Gold is being sought as a safe haven, however with earnings continuing to progress the ideal entry point at this level is all but certain. Two majors within this space, Goldcorp and Barrick, report on Wednesday, which may subject this stock to pressure if the earnings are not interpreted well. But for the most part, Gold and Gold related stocks are seen as a safe choice and poised to receive a little bit of strength after being ignored in the market upturn since February lows.

The stock faces a quick spurt coming off of Q1 earnings season in the month of May for gains reaching 10% on average. Will history repeat? The main period of strength for the equity is at year end for substantial returns over the period.


YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV (YRI.TO) 10.59 + 0.21 (2.02%) Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Point Resistance 1 Resistance 2 10.19 10.39 10.54 10.74 10.89 Expected Short-Term Trading Range: 10.07 – 10.55 Support & Resistance Analysis Broke Lwr Resistance (1) MACD Analysis Negative/Increasing MACD MACD vs. Signal Above/Widening -0.032 RSI Analysis Bullish RSI Stochastic (Fast) Analysis Neutral 56.811 50-Day MA Analysis Above 50-Day MA – Crossover %K (fast) 200-Day MA Analysis Below 200-Day MA 78.824 Critical Level Analysis Broke Above Previous Trend

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