Saturday, September 27, 2014
Goldman Sachs predicted gold will hit US$1,050 by the end of the year
North American Large Caps & ETFs
FOCUS: North American Large Caps & ETFs
It has been proven that what hurts portfolios are the unknown, and the surprise events. Going back 20 years history has proven that planned events have no bearing on the markets. Y2K, debt ceiling announcements, interest rate hikes, wars, all have no effect over the intermediate term. It is the tsunamis, and the 9/11s that can devastate portfolios.
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Monday, September 22, 2014
Russell 2000 a Death Cross...
A death cross occurs when a nearer-term 50-day moving average falls below a longer-term, 200-day moving average. Technicians argue that a death cross can be a bearish sign.
The chase by Frances Horodelski:
“………and to be brutally honest, unlike their male counterparts with thinning hair, laugh lines, and graying temples, these ladies’ on-camera careers typically have a “sell-by” date…..” Randall Forsyth, Barron’s. Ouch.So with that as your thought for the day, let’s get going.
Last week was miserable for commodity and Canadian stock investors. There were margin calls (or the worry of them) as well as some wholesale selling of Canadian equities (program trades) with no-one on the other side willing to step up. We are also into the end of the quarter which can see wild shifts in portfolios.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar’s bid hasn’t dissipated putting further pressure on the commodity trade. Last week saw the material sub-sector decline almost 5%. Only utilities and industries were up last week on the TSX. In other weakness, the small cap sectors in the U.S. were bleeding and not keeping up with the big cap new highs. Indeed, the Russell 2000 was down 1.21% last week and has declined three weeks in a row.
The week isn’t quite as busy as last week, but influential things are happening. First, we start with merger Monday with more than $25 billion worth of deals announced – all kind of “old-tech” with Siemens buying Dresser-Rand and Merck KGaA buying Sigma-Aldrich. Both deals are all cash and at premiums of 14% and 37%, respectively (with DRC the premium is based on the price before the rumour spiked the stock on Friday and +37% since July). EMC is highlighted in the Wall Street Journal as talking about a potential combination with the likes of Hewlett Packard.
In other news, the week is active with climate change front and centre in advance of the UN’s climate change summit which starts tomorrow. It is also “flash” PMI time (again!) with HSBC’s PMI for China to be released tonight (estimate 50 versus last month’s 50.2). We will see similar numbers for the U.S. and Europe tomorrow with France being the expected very weak link with a 47 level (versus last month’s 46.9). A number under 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy.
We’ll also get a third and final look at U.S. GDP that is estimated to be even higher than the previous look at 4.2% (that number comes out Friday). There are a few major companies reporting results including Bed Bath & Beyond on Tuesday and Nike on Thursday. We have Blackberry’s new product launch (the Passport) on Thursday.
With respect to monetary policy, this week will see speeches from eight Federal Reserve officials including New York Fed Dudley today. Also today, Mario Draghi attends a European Parliament committee on monetary policy.
Other things to be watching. The price of gasoline in the U.S. is down 34 cents in the past 13 weeks. For context, each penny drop in gasoline adds $1 billion to consumers’ pockets – like a tax cut. Barron’s has bullish stories on Bank of America (50% upside), Yahoo! (potential value to $58) and a positive turn to European equities and beer stocks.
According to people who watch the calendar, beware the autumnal equinox “markets have a history of moving up or down” into this day (uh, duh, don’t they always go up or down?). Alternatively, there is the old “sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur” adage. The Jewish New Year holiday begins Wednesday evening.
According to Richard Ross, technician at Auerbach Grayson who has been negative on equities, watch the dollar index as it approaches the 89 level where previously two spikes there have resulted in a 57% and 17% declines in the S&P 500. Standard & Poor’s notes that 46% of S&P 500 sales come from foreign sources – a strong dollar can ultimately pressure those return profits (I say ultimately because hedging and smooth are on-going ways that big corporations alleviate the immediate pain).
And that’s it. Market weakness is evident this morning as investors grapple with the euphoria of Alibaba, enthusiastic pace of M&A, the narrowing breadth in the markets but more importantly, for Canadian investors, who wants to buy our “stuff” and our companies? It’s tough out there – looking for opportunities requires a very sharp pencil. We’ll cover the opportunities all day long on BNN. Join us.
Every morning Business Day Host Frances Horodelski
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Market Today
Friday, September 12, 2014
Canada's Small Business Job Credit Flaws
The proposed “Small Business Job Credit” has major structural flaws that, in many cases, give firms an incentive to fire workers and cut salaries. Like my colleague Stephen Gordon, I am no fan of this proposal.
This “EI cliff” kicks in fairly early, as a small business with as few as 12 employees can have EI contribution costs above $15,000 per year. Those firms then face a decision: Are they close enough to the edge of the cliff that they should cut staff or wages in order to obtain the tax credit. (Full disclosure: I own such a company that is on the “wrong” side of the cliff). The way this proposed system is designed is that the maximum benefit a company can receive from firing a worker and going under the $15,000 threshold far exceeds the maximum benefit a small business can receive from hiring an additional worker:
- The maximum benefit a firm can receive from firing a worker is $2234.04.
- The maximum benefit a firm can receive from hiring a worker is $190.52.
A larger problem with this proposal is the discontinuity that occurs when a firm reaches $15,000 in EI payments to the government. Once a firm crosses that threshold, it goes from collecting a tax credit of $2234.04 to collecting nothing.
Mike Moffat Articles On Canadian Business
Source
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Broadbent Institute: Top 10% own 50% of Canada's wealth (Statistics Canada data on wealth)
Top 10% own 50% of Canada's wealth
In a report out Thursday, the Broadbent Institute looked at the most recent Statistics Canada data on wealth levels of Canadians. The data agency typically divides the country into five groups of 20% of the population, known as "quintiles" but the Broadbent Institute divided the number into deciles — 10 groups, each making up 10% of the population — for a new look at the data.
Under that analysis, income looks to be distributed even more unevenly than previously thought.
The report found that the top 10% of Canadians owned almost half — 47.9% — of all the assets in the country.
The bottom half of the population, on the other hand, shares a total of 6% of the wealth. And the majority of Canadians own no financial assets at all, except any pensions they may have access to.
Similar reports have made the claim that while the rich are, in fact, getting richer, the average person is also benefiting from wealth gains — albeit less extravagant ones. Statistics Canada's own data shows that the richest 20% of Canadians saw their net worth increase by 40.6% between 2005 and 2012 — more than any other group — while the net worth of the poorest 20 per cent was unchanged.
The report adds fuel to the income inequality fire, noting that since 1999, all four of the poorest deciles in Canada (in other words, the poorest 40% of the country) have seen their share of total wealth decline.
The share of total wealth for the fifth through the ninth deciles (the richest 40% to 90% of Canada) all saw their share of total wealth increase, by about one per cent each over the last decade and a half.
The report also found that the wealth gap changes significantly across the country. The concentration of wealth for the top decile is highest in British Columbia at 56.2% and lowest in Atlantic Canada at 31.7%.
And In all regions except Atlantic Canada, the bottom half of the population held less than 10% of all wealth.
Source
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Apple Pay will struggle...
Company News Alert
Retailers seen unlikely to warm up to Apple Pay (RTGAM)
Tanya Agrawal and Anil D’Silva
Apple Inc.’s launch of its own tap-to-pay system using near-field communication in its new iPhones and smartwatches may not be a game changer after all.
The success of Apple Pay, unveiled at a gala launch on Tuesday, hinges on the willingness of retailers to use NFC-based payment systems, industry experts said.
So far the technology, which uses wireless technology to transfer data over short distances, has failed to catch on due to the high costs involved.
An NFC-enabled reader costs between $250 and $300. In addition to that, merchants also need to train staff and set up backend IT systems.
Apple is betting on the popularity of its iPhones and the convenience and security of its payment system to prompt customers and retailers to make the shift.
The technology will allow iPhone users to pay for anything from office supplies to burgers at the tap of a button, using their American Express Co., Visa Inc. or Mastercard Inc. bank cards.
But Apple first needs to swiftly add more retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Best Buy Co. Inc., which recently stopped accepting payments using NFC terminals.
“At this point we have no plans to accept Apple Pay,” Best Buy spokesman Jeff Shelman said.
U.S. retailers have been notoriously slow when it comes to adopting new payment technology.
They are already lagging in the adoption of payment systems that can read chip-enabled credit and debit cards, a move hastened by a massive data breach at Target Corp. last Christmas.
Trying to convince them to move to mobile-based payment terminals can be a big challenge.
“Apple’s tremendous failure [Tuesday] was in demonstrating anything that was merchant-friendly,” said Tom Noyes, chief executive of Commercesignal Inc., a data and payments company.
“There is nothing they showed that wasn’t possible seven years ago. There’s nothing for the merchants,” added Noyes, a former Citigroup Inc. executive.
Apple declined to comment.
RIVAL SYSTEMS
Apple Pay also faces competition from Merchant Customer Exchange (MCX) – a consortium of retailers including Wal-Mart and Best Buy – which is developing its own mobile payment platform.
MCX merchants account for over $1-trillion of consumer spending, or roughly a quarter of the total retail spending in the United States, Morgan Stanley analyst Smittipon Srethapramote wrote in a note to clients.
Its members are currently prohibited from accepting all other mobile wallets. Some members have even flipped the switch on their NFC terminals.
Mobile handset makers included NFC chips in about 300 million smartphones last year, a third of all smartphones shipped.
The number of NFC-enabled phones is expected to touch 550 million this year, helped by Apple’s devices and an expanding number of Android gadgets, Gartner analyst Mark Hung estimated.
Gartner Research had projected last year that the value of mobile payments by 2017 would be $721-million globally, with only 5 per cent coming from NFC payments.
“The economics of NFC implementation for the issuing and acquiring communities have been a challenge, resulting in slow adoption of the technology,” industry association Smart Card Alliance said in a report published in November, 2013.