KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, October 9, 2009
8:30 AM ET. Aug Trade Balance, in dollars
Deficit (Expected 33.6B; previous 31.96B)
Exports (previous 127.59B)
Exports Percent Change (previous +2.2%)
Imports (previous 159.55B)
Imports Percent Change (previous +4.7%)
The STOCK INDEXES
The December NASDAQ 100 was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1732.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1578.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1730.75. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1732.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1699.75. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1649.75. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 6.75 pts. at 1709.75 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The December S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 1065.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, September's low crossing at 987.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1067.20. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1075.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1051.46. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1048.05. The December S&P 500 Index was down 1.50 pts. at 1062.30 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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December T-bonds were slightly higher overnight due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 123-32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 123-25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 123-32. First support is the overnight low crossing at 120-31. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-26. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/
November crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last month's low, September's high crossing at 73.58 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 68.05 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 72.55. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 73.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.01. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.05.
November heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 188.78 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 173.77 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 186.15. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 188.78. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 179.74. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 173.77.
November unleaded gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 187.36 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 168.85 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 180.86. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 187.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 174.88. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 173.34.
November Henry natural gas was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.888. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 5.133 then the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 5.320 are the next upside targets. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 4.351 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.120. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 5.133. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.842. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.720. CURRENCIES
The December Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above monthly support crossing at 75.73. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 77.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.78. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 77.74. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 75.68. Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39.
The December Euro was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 148.440 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 144.790 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 148.160. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 148.440. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.759. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 144.790.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6135 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1.5394 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.6124. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6135. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 1.5766. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1.5394.
The December Swiss Franc was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this rally, September's high crossing at .9920 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at .9522 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .9785. Second resistance is September's high crossing at .9920. First support is last week's low crossing at .9522. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .9376.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week's breakout above September's high crossing at 94.44. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 96.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 95.61. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 96.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.24. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 91.24.
The December Japanese Yen was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 2008 high crossing at .11472 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11090 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .11368. Second resistance is the 2008 high crossing at .11472. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11201. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11090.
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December gold was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. A rebound in the U.S. Dollar overnight helped to trigger a round of profit taking in the gold market. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. As December extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1014.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1062.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1021.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1014.40.
December silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level of 2008's decline crossing at 18.180 on the weekly continuation chart is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-
day moving average crossing at 16.851 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 17.955. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2008's decline crossing at 18.180. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.857. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.851.
December copper was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 295.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 277.56 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 298.95 or below 266.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of the current trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 290.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 295.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.75. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 277.56. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/
December coffee closed higher on Thursday and spiked above September's high as it extends the rally off last week's low. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, August's high crossing at 14.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.99 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 32.90 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 29.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.68. A short covering rally tempered early session gains and the mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low crossing at 21.95 would confirm this summer's head and shoulders top while opening the door for a larger-degree decline this fall.
December cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, December needs to close above the reaction high crossing at 65.47 or below the reaction low crossing at 54.77 to confirm a breakout of this year's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
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December corn was steady overnight in quiet trading as the market awaits the results of this morning's monthly USDA supply-demand report for direction. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of trade analysts suggests that traders have priced expectations of a 12.993 billion-bushel corn crop on a 162.7 bushel per acre yield into the market. That's up from USDA's September estimate of a 12.955 billion-bushel crop on a yield of 161.9 bushels yield. The trade expects USDA to peg 2009-
10 ending corn stocks at 1.675 billion bushels, up 40 million from the previous month. The high-
range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 3.75 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.38 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.75 1/4. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 3.48 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.38 3/4.
December wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as traders completed final position squaring ahead of this morning's monthly supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, long-term support crossing at 4.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.81 1/2. Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 1/2. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 4.39 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 1/2-cents at 4.89 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's breakout above the 20-day moving average. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 4.50 then 4.33 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.93. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 4.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.72 1/2.Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.58 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it awaits the results of this morning's monthly supply-demand report. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.12 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.12 3/4. Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 5.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.91. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 4.77.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of trade analysts suggests that USDA will peg this year's soybean crop at 3.291 billion bushels on a yield of 42.9 bushels per acre. USDA pegged the crop at 3.245 billion bushels on a yield of 42.3 bushels per acre in September. The trade expects USDA to peg this year's ending stocks at 257 million bushels, up 37 million from September. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.37 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.14 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 9.42. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.77 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.22 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.14 1/4.
December soybean meal was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 298.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 281.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 291.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 298.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 282.20. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 281.10.
December soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 36.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 32.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 34.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 36.19. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 33.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 33.45.
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December hogs closed up $1.77 at $53.53.
December hogs closed higher on Thursday and above September's high crossing at 53.05 thereby renewing the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 55.69 is the next upside target. Today's close below Monday's low crossing at 47.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 53.95. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 55.69. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 49.77. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 47.50.
February bellies closed up $2.38 at $82.77.
February bellies closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.05 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 89.40 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at 80.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 84.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 89.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.60. Second support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 80.70.
December cattle closed up $0.25 at 84.32.
December cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 80.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 83.50. Second support is psychological support crossing at 80.00.
November feeder cattle closed up $0.62 at $93.80.
November Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 91.11 is the next downside target. ______________________________
Friday, October 9, 2009
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
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