Sunday, August 28, 2011

Ivan Lo Equedia Weekly Says...



For months, we have been waiting on Bernanke to make his speech at Jackson Hole. For months, the market has been on tilt with some of the wildest trading days we have ever seen. For months, gold has been making new highs.

For months, it has been the same old story.

There's no doubt in my mind that everywhere you turned Friday, Bernanke was the focus. So I am not going to bore you. In short, Bernanke said everything we already know in his opening paragraph:

"The financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth, might not now be facing a prolonged period of stagnation, regardless of its public policy choices. Might not the very slow pace of economic expansion of the past few years, not only in the United States but also in a number of other advanced economies, morph into something far more long-lasting? "

His speech spoke volumes without saying anything: QE3 is needed.

In past letters, I have maintained my stance that QE3 is inevitable (see Time to Feel the Pain). In a note published earlier this week, Goldman Sachs said that $1 trillion in QE3 is an absolute minimum if the Fed wants to get GDP higher by at least 0.5%:

"Taken together, our analysis suggests that QE3 is unlikely to be a panacea for growth. Nonetheless, our estimates suggests that $1trillion of asset purchases-or an equivalent increase in the duration of the Fed's balance sheet-might increase GDP growth by up to 0.5 percentage point in the first year after any announcement of QE3."

I know QE3 will do more harm than good in the long term. I know it may not be as effective as QE1 or QE2. I know the effects of QE3 on financial conditions may be at least partially offset by the Treasury's debt management policies. But for now, both the market and overall consumer confidence, need to be addressed for the short term.

Bernanke knows it. That is why he announced that a second day has been added to the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September to "allow a fuller discussion" of the economy and the Fed's possible response. Something will happen on those days. But again, we just don't know what.

Over my recent letters, I talked about focusing on what we do know, rather than what we don't. So I gathered up some facts that'll give you a broader picture of what's happening in the U.S. -- word of caution, it ain't pretty:

Nearly one out of every five American men between the ages of 25 and 54 does not have a job at the moment

Approximately one million homes were repossessed by financial institutions in 2010 and a similar number of repossessions is expected in 2011.

The combination of federal government spending, state government spending and local government spending now accounts for a larger share of U.S. GDP than at any other time in our history

The supply of existing homes for sale continues to go up

The value of U.S. homes has fallen by a total of approximately 6.6 trillion dollars since the peak of the housing market

The more money you make, the less taxes you pay: General Electric, the nation's largest corporation, reported worldwide profits of $14.2 billion, and said $5.1 billion of the total came from its operations in the United States. Its American tax bill? None. In fact, G.E. claimed a tax benefit of $3.2 billion. Meanwhile, citizens are being forced to pay taxes with money they don't have.

Ten years ago, the United States was ranked number one in average wealth per adult. In 2010, the United States fell to seventh

In 2010, the United States had the worst current account balance in the world. The U.S. had a current account balance of negative 561 billion dollars for 2010 (see The Shocking Truth)

It takes the average unemployed worker about 40 weeks to find a new job.

Today, one out of every four American children is on food stamps: It is being projected that approximately 50 percent of all U.S. children will be on food stamps at some point in their lives before they reach the age of 18

To date, American household wealth has lost $7.7 trillion since the recession: U.S. household wealth fell by about $16.4 trillion of net worth from its peak in spring 2007, about six months before the start of the recession, to when things hit bottom in the first quarter of 2009, according to figures from the Federal Reserve.

While a rebound in the stock market, an improved savings rate and consumer steps to reduce debt resulted in net worth gains since 2009, only a little more than half of that lost wealth - $8.7 trillion -- is back on household balance sheets.

That leaves American household wealth $7.7 trillion less than it was before the recession.

Those are just some of the little details that the US is afraid to tell you. But there's more. There's always more...

America Up for Sale

Pieces of America are literally being auctioned off just to help state and local governments minimize their debt problems.

Earlier last month, a bill that will allow the state government of Ohio to proceed with plans to lease the Ohio Turnpike to investors was approved.

Highways have also been auctioned off (most of the time to foreign investors): A toll highway in Indiana (sold to a Spanish and Australian joint venture), the Chicago skyway, and stretches of highway in Florida, Virginia and Texas.

In Chicago, it's the sale of parking meters to the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi. Parking meters in Nashville, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and other cities are also being sold.

In Wisconsin it's public health and food programs. In California it's libraries, water treatment plants, schools, toll roads, airports, and power plants. It's Amtrak.

Oh, and guess what?

It's the bankers that caused our financial mess in the first place that are selling these pieces of assets from taxpayers, to private investors.

In Goldman Sach's 2010 SEC filing, Goldman says it will be involved with "ownership and operation of public services, such as airports, toll roads and shipping ports, as well as power generation facilities, physical commodities and other commodities infrastructure components, both within and outside the United States."

I am not done.

America Selling Out

All this talk about infrastructure and job creation by the government is just that...talk.

Much of U.S' infrastructure is not even built in the country anymore.

For example, a 2,050ft-long bridge spanning the San Francisco bay is actually being built in China by the China State Construction Engineering Group and is being shipped over to the U.S. piece by piece.

According to an article in the Telegraph:

According to Engineering News Record, five of the world's top 10 contractors, in terms of revenue, are now Chinese, with likes of China State Construction Engineering Group (CSCEC) overtaking established American giants like Bechtel.

CSCEC has already built seven schools in the US, apartment blocks in Washington DC and New York and is in the middle of building a 4,000-room casino in Atlantic City. In New York, it has won contracts to renovate the subway system, build a new metro platform near Yankee stadium, and refurbish the Alexander Hamilton Bridge over the Harlem river.

Massive corporations that are either fully or partially owned by the Chinese government are deeply integrating themselves into the U.S. economy.

So what happened to infrastructure as part of Obama's promise of new job creation? I'll let you figure that one out for yourself.

While the long term outlook for the US doesn't look pretty, it doesn't mean everything is going to collapse right now. The fact is, the US is still the world power - even with the economic turmoil brewing. Let's not forget that all of these negative statements are a reflection of what the US once was.

If you think the US is no longer a player, you'd be nuts. Even without growth, the US is still number one. While this may not last, there is still a window of opportunity for profits in the US markets. So buck up and stop worrying because the time for worry will come later.

Summer is almost over, which means play time is over. The markets will be back in full swing over the next few weeks and I have a strong feeling that we're going to see a rally soon enough.

Enjoy the last days of sun because its back to work and back to aggressively making money. The time period to do so will be short lived, so be ready to make moves.

Feel free to spread the word. Information is knowledge and knowledge should never be restricted.


Source

Friday, August 26, 2011

Gold Bugs Getting Swatted?

Where are you on this scale ?







What Goes [Straight] Up...

Thursday August 25, 2011 09:02 AM

The biggest decline in gold since 1980 (and not many readers may personally recall that fateful year) unfolded in recent hours and the rout extended into the morning hours on Thursday as the yellow metal fell yet another nearly $50 to touch the $1,702 mark overseas. On Wednesday, spot gold fell by another $77.90 per ounce to finish the stormy day at $1,751.30 the ounce. Silver lost $2.11 to end at $39.69. Spot gold dealings opened with pared losses in New York this morning as some of the selling let up momentarily.

Quotes indicated bullion on the bid-side at $1,727.00 the ounce but the market was far from exhibiting signs that the anxiety that has developed since Tuesday has even remotely dissipated. The $1,650 to $1,680 area still presents itself as a target for the bears to try to test but some corrective bounce at this juncture would be as unsurprising as the fact that Apple will continue to exist even after the untimely departure of it cherished CEO.

Silver was off by 31 cents at the opening bell and it was quoted at $39.38 the ounce. The $36.96 level is still apparently the one to breach for the white metal to possibly commence an even more substantial decline than what has been experienced this week. Silver had “refused” to join gold’s rally up until almost the very last minute, and then, it too, attracted a sizeable crowd of latecomers who saw another chance for $50 (or more) to be achieved.

Platinum and palladium both opened unchanged (at $1,799 and at $745) this morning and the recent selling damage ($60 in platinum yesterday but only $13 in palladium) was less severe in this complex, albeit platinum is now trading some $100 under the recent peak it achieved. Palladium still appears as the most ‘stable’ one in this stable; its losses (and by some opinions) its potential downside risk are both on the small side.

Japanese investors meanwhile have been stepping up their purchases of physical but mostly ETF-based platinum since the noble metal has come to near-parity with the yellow one. Investment in platinum by Japanese buyers has doubled since July. Meanwhile, the same Japanese investor has been a consistent seller of gold into market strength in recent months (and even years)…

Spokesmen from Mitsubishi UFJ Trust noted that “While platinum prices are prone to downside risks as they are tied to industrial demand, the metal is more precious in nature than gold and its value is more stable. The fact our ETFs are growing may indicate more Japanese investors are shifting away from physical investment in precious metals." Reuters reports that the spread on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) between gold and platinum, which is usually priced higher than gold (historically, an average of $200), narrowed this month and fell into negative territory for one day in early August.
While $215 of a cave-in in the yellow is surely quite painful to the multitudes seen still piling into bullion holdings in the initial hours of this trading week, the 12%+ correction is not yet eliciting any bullish towels being thrown into the market’s dirty laundry hamper. To the contrary, various forms of reality denial have been on display, complete with increasing decibel levels as to why gold must and will attain not just mid-four-digit, but also five-figure values…later. Not everyone agrees with that take, however, hefty recent gains notwithstanding.

Well, at least to time of day or a particular year were given as bait. To be fair, there were those who looked at this event and waxed somewhat ‘nostalgic’ as in: Dennis Gartman, for one. Dennis noted that “we exited one third of our gold position yesterday, and in retrospect we should have exited 150 percent of our long position. The biggest news of all, in our opinion, was that the capitalization of the” gold fund had surpassed the equity ETF.”

Wells Fargo deputy chief investment officer Erik Davidson kindly reminded shocked gold market spectators that “The motions that you are seeing are now indications of a market pop.” More importantly, he also advised that “people should keep in mind that a reserve currency does not fluctuate as much as gold.” There was a lot of contending lately that gold was acting as a reserve currency and that it was poised to unseat the [insert your least favorite currency here].

See if you can identify where on this scale (below) that puts things at the present time…and where sentiment stood three days ago, aside from the mere fact that the gold market Daily Sentiment Index touched 98% on Monday (and the last two remaining bears were euthanized that night).

Overconfidence levels were also damaged as the CME hiked its gold futures trading margins by 27% (the second such adjustment in one month) on the heels of the SGE having done so in China. Adding to the anxiety-denial combination were conflicting expectations as to what the Fed’s Jackson Hole retreat might yield. Many –too many- are still expecting a full-bore “give” by the US central bank.QE-call-it-whatever-you-will-point-0 is being demanded by those whose party glass is near empty and they cannot leave the rave that has been oh-so-good to them for several years now.

Others see Mr. Bernanke as taking a wait-and-see attitude as he is cognizant of the heat coming from politicians as well as some of his own FOMC team members as regards the efficacy of more easing/bond/buying/etc. and the inflation risks they all carry. Expectations and speculative posturing surrounding the Wyoming Fed camping trip have become an annual ritual by now, but this time the emotions run higher than ever perhaps. In a nutshell, says Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, “We have created a very bad precedent. The financial markets whine and policy officials jump. The Fed has become the Pavlov’s dog of the stock market, and this is a horrible precedent for policy makers.”

Some observers believe that Mr. Bernanke may take Mr. Paulsen’s criticism to heart and simply let markets (pick one) down for a change tomorrow when he fails to offer a concrete stimulus offering but only pledges to do so when/if it becomes necessary (pretty much the same language as the one used when the 2013 ‘extension’ of low rates was recently mentioned by the Fed but was grossly misinterpreted by certain markets).

There are some valid reasons for Mr. Bernanke to abstain from unconditionally pleasing certain market players with a further helping of asset purchases. For starters, the specter of deflation has shrunk to less scary proportions while inflation (ex energy and food) is now running but two-tenths of a percent under the Fed’s target of 2%.

Hold on tight; there is only one day left to wait for the “Wyoming Words.”

Jon Nadler
Senior Metals Analyst – Kitco Metals

Friday, August 19, 2011

Markets wait on Carney as rout continues

The Chase by Marty Cej:

Asian stocks tumbled, European equities are sliding and U.S. index futures are pointing to declines at the open of North American trading. Judging from the number of photographs of floor traders pinching the bridges of their noses on front pages and news websites, it could be another rough ride for equity investors.

Not so much for bond markets and gold investors, though. Government bond yields in Canada and the U.S. were driven to record lows yesterday and remain close to those levels while gold has pushed to new records. With no U.S. data out this morning to confirm or undermine economic worries, investors will be hard pressed to come up with an easy excuse to buy or sell.

It will be a different story in Canada, however, as Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney testify before a parliamentary committee on the impact the European debt crisis and U.S. slowdown will have on the Canadian economy and financial markets. We'll take Minister Flaherty's testimony live beginning at 9 am Eastern. Carney sits down at 10 am. TD Bank Chief Economist Craig Alexander will follow the testimony for us in studio.

Economists and traders expect the Canadian fiscal- and monetary policy decision makers to insist that the Canadian economy and Canuck companies will remain resilient in the event of a more severe economic downturn.

Inflation is not a major concern, as evidenced by this morning's Canadian CPI data; corporate balance sheets are strong and many commodity prices are at or near record highs. They can expect Flaherty to tout the "soundness" of the Canadian banks and scold the profligate ways of other nations. Governor Carney will assure the committee that the central bank has all the tools necessary to help stimulate the economy in the event of a severe downturn and the Bank of Canada is one of the few members of the Group of Seven that is able to cut rates if needs be. But is there a need?

The markets should brace for any change in the fiscal projections by the government or cuts to economic growth assumptions.

Canadian tech stocks could garner a lot of attention this morning. Research In Motion continues to be the subject of intense takeover speculation in the wake of Google's $12.5-billion takeover of Motorola Mobility and the successful multi-billion-dollar auction of Nortel's patents. Bloomberg reports this morning that analysts at Morgan Keegan estimate that RIM may now be worth $25 billion thanks to the value of its patents.

Sure, that's a far cry from the $83 billion that RIM was valued at during its peak, but it's a nice premium on the $13.5 billion market cap the company now sports. Analyst Peter Misek at Jefferies raised the stock to "hold" from "underperform."

Open Text will also be in focus after HP said it would buy Autonomy of the UK for $11 billion. Analysts at National Bank say Open Text could be the next target in the industry and IBM the most likely buyer. National Bank also says a bidding war between SAP and Oracle is not out of the question.

Banks will be a key sector for us to follow today and in the coming weeks. How "sound" are Canadian banks relative to the rest of the world? How do they measure up in terms of Tier 1 capital, for example, or tangible common equity? It is not enough for us to refer back to a report written months ago. Times have changed and so have the banks.

Gold has soared to another record high. The commodity, the companies, the ETFs… buy, sell, hold? They are all angles.

Oil is slumping. Same deal as gold, only different.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

A Red Day Across The World -

Volume Leaders

SymbolNameLast TradeChangeVolumeRelated Info
SU.TOSUNCOR ENERGY INC.30.1210:42AM EDTDown 1.61 (5.07%)2,673,534Chart, Profile, More
MFC.TOMANULIFE FIN13.2010:42AM EDTDown 0.72 (5.17%)2,504,137Chart, Profile, More
YLO.TOYELLOW MEDIA INC.1.1010:41AM EDTDown 0.05 (4.35%)2,482,622Chart, More
LUN.TOLUNDIN MINING CORP.5.2410:42AM EDTDown 0.21 (3.85%)2,113,409Chart, Profile, More
YRI.TOYAMANA GOLD INC15.5310:42AM EDTUp 0.33 (2.17%)1,953,453Chart, Profile, More
K.TOKINROSS GOLD CORP.16.5010:42AM EDTUp 0.05 (0.30%)1,808,353Chart, More
BBD-B.TOBOMBARDIER INC., CL. B, SV4.9410:38AM EDTDown 0.16 (3.14%)1,604,184Chart, Profile, More
TRE.TOSINO-FOREST CORP5.2010:42AM EDTDown 0.16 (2.99%)1,534,789Chart, Profile, More
TCK-B.TOTeck Resources Limited39.7210:42AM EDTDown 2.61 (6.17%)1,348,119Chart, Profile, More
WIN.TOWI-LAN INC6.7610:42AM EDTDown 0.33 (4.65%)1,247,910Chart, Profile, More
ABX.TOBARRICK GOLD CORPORATION49.5310:42AM EDTDown 0.02 (0.04%)1,152,217Chart, Profile, More
RY.TOROYAL BANK OF CANADA50.3410:42AM EDTDown 1.34 (2.59%)1,095,820Chart, Profile, More
UUU.TOURANIUM ONE INC.2.8510:42AM EDTDown 0.11 (3.72%)1,056,340Chart, Profile, More
ECA.TOENCANA CORP.23.9810:42AM EDTDown 1.28 (5.07%)1,022,234Chart, Profile, More
G.TOGOLDCORP INC50.2710:42AM EDTDown 0.03 (0.06%)968,582Chart, Profile, More
COS.TOCANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED21.3810:42AM EDTDown 1.05 (4.68%)960,964Chart, More
TD.TOTD US Small-Cap Equity - I74.2610:42AM EDTDown 2.23 (2.92%)944,286Chart, Profile, More
POT.TOPOTASH CORP OF SASK INC52.2810:42AM EDTDown 1.90 (3.51%)937,215Chart, Profile, More
CMK.TOCLINE MINING CORP1.7610:40AM EDTDown 0.20 (10.20%)935,331Chart, Profile, More
PRQ.TOPROGRESS ENERGY RESOURCES CORP.12.4610:42AM EDTDown 0.43 (3.34%)923,040Chart, Profile, More
CNQ.TOCDN NATURAL RES34.5110:42AM EDTDown 1.64 (4.54%)892,164Chart, Profile, More
RIM.TORESEARCH IN MOTION LIMITED25.3710:42AM EDTDown 0.91 (3.46%)889,997Chart, Profile, More
NGD.TONEW GOLD INC.12.3510:42AM EDTUp 0.38 (3.17%)870,143Chart, Profile, More
LSG.TOLAKE SHORE GOLD CORP.2.2310:41AM EDTDown 0.07 (3.04%)865,927Chart, Profile, More
NEM.TONEO MATERIAL TECHNOLOGIES INC9.1010:42AM EDTDown 0.45 (4.71%)866,638Chart, Profile, More

Volume Leaders

SymbolNameLast TradeChangeVolumeRelated Info
BACBank of America Corporation Com6.9010:45AM EDTDown 0.56 (7.51%)116,460,784Chart, Profile, More
GEGeneral Electric Company Common15.3710:45AM EDTDown 0.86 (5.31%)35,030,050Chart, Profile, More
CCitigroup, Inc. New Common Stoc27.0010:45AM EDTDown 2.85 (9.55%)34,432,499Chart, Profile, More
VXXiPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Fu38.4410:45AM EDTUp 4.91 (14.64%)34,352,807Chart, Profile, More
EMCEMC Corporation Common Stock20.1310:45AM EDTDown 2.38 (10.57%)32,217,896Chart, Profile, More
SDSProShares UltraShort S&P50025.9410:45AM EDTUp 2.05 (8.58%)29,091,962Chart, Profile, More
FFord Motor Company Common Stock10.4210:45AM EDTDown 0.69 (6.21%)28,957,879Chart, Profile, More
EKEastman Kodak Company Common St3.0210:45AM EDTUp 0.33 (12.26%)25,234,783Chart, Profile, More
SSprint Nextel Corporation Comm3.5910:45AM EDTDown 0.13 (3.49%)23,256,155Chart, Profile, More
FASDirexion Financial Bull 3X Shar12.6910:45AM EDTDown 2.08 (14.08%)22,039,284Chart, Profile, More
NOKNokia Corporation Sponsored Ame5.6110:45AM EDTDown 0.32 (5.40%)20,890,951Chart, Profile, More
MGMMGM Resorts International Commo10.1310:45AM EDTDown 1.41 (12.22%)20,318,972Chart, Profile, More
PFEPfizer, Inc. Common Stock17.8610:45AM EDTDown 0.63 (3.38%)18,014,447Chart, Profile, More
JPMJP Morgan Chase & Co. Common St34.9110:45AM EDTDown 1.66 (4.54%)16,534,770Chart, Profile, More
TAT&T Inc.28.5410:45AM EDTDown 0.63 (2.16%)14,955,995Chart, Profile, More
SSOProShares Ultra S&P50038.9910:45AM EDTDown 3.69 (8.65%)14,140,626Chart, Profile, More
HPQHewlett-Packard Company Common29.2010:45AM EDTDown 2.19 (6.98%)13,423,706Chart, Profile, More
WFCWells Fargo & Company Common St23.7010:45AM EDTDown 1.18 (4.74%)13,316,988Chart, Profile, More
FAZDirexion Financial Bear 3X Shar65.6910:45AM EDTUp 8.13 (14.12%)13,016,947Chart, Profile, More
TBTProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+23.7810:45AM EDTDown 1.43 (5.66%)11,911,554Chart, Profile, More
AAAlcoa Inc. Common Stock11.5810:45AM EDTDown 0.68 (5.55%)11,814,972Chart, Profile, More
NLYAnnaly Capital Management Inc C18.1710:45AM EDTDown 0.14 (0.76%)11,042,045Chart, Profile, More
IVRINVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Co17.5910:45AM EDTDown 1.70 (8.80%)11,040,556Chart, Profile, More
MSMorgan Stanley Common Stock15.7210:45AM EDTDown 1.29 (7.58%)10,574,569Chart, Profile, More
TZADirexion Small Cap Bear 3X Shar53.7710:45AM EDTUp 6.78 (14.43%)10,358,845Chart, Profile, More

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