Editor Marc Faber ,publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report says Too Late To Enter Stocks Before Summer

Hoping all that momentum-stock selling lately is just a blip on your radar screen? Sorry, it’s just a warmup for the bigger a-stock-alypse, says renowned doomster Marc Faber.

“We’ve already had a big break in the market, but we haven’t had yet the big break in the overall market,” he told CNBC on Wednesday, rattling off stocks that have been getting hit by the growth-stock backlash — Twitter TWTR , which is getting creamed post-earnings in the premarket, and Yelp YELP +4.08% , to name a pair. “

As U.S. investors, you have to choose the time to buy. I believe it’s too late to buy the U.S. stock market.”

The editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report blames the Fed for that biotech and momentum-stock selloff, and individual investors for having “excessively optimistic expectations about their future returns.”

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/30/crashy-marc-faber-its-too-late-to-buy-u-s-stocks-now/

Dow Jones Swings Show Bull Vs Bears with no winner thus far...

Francis H. States...

• Yesterday was fun. The Dow Jones had three swings of 150+ points up and down over the course of the day from high to low. According to work done by Howard Silverblatt over at S&P Capital IQ however, this is nothing. His data, going back to 1963, shows that the current high/low spread in the S&P 500 is only a modest 0.95% this year compared to 1.07% in 2012 and 1.64% in 2010 and 1.47% average over the period - so more wild swings ahead are certainly possible and maybe inevitable.

• Yesterday's mid-day swoon was ostensibly caused by a speech from Mario Draghi that QE was "relatively unlikely" but since the meeting was private, the street is still of the belief that some sort of quantitative easing remains on the agenda. Ukrainian sanctions escalated from the EU and the US yesterday but despite Canada sending six CF-18 fighter jets to assist NATO operations in eastern Europe, tensions seem to have eased a bit, at least in traders' minds (my experience is that traders can only focus on one thing at a time - and today we're back to digesting earnings). 

http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/04/29/A-swingin-Dow-Jones.aspx

Has the S&P 500 broken the downside setup?

By Avi Gilburt

If you were hoping that I was going to be able to present some magical count to clear this chart up, then I am sorry to say, I am going to seriously disappoint you. Not only do we not have clearer indications in the market, but the difference between this week's close and last week's close was not even a full 1.50 points. Talk about going nowhere fast.

For months now, this market has been up, down and all around — in other words, a corrective mess. It has not given any strong indication as to the next larger moves, which all smacks of corrective action. Yes, I know there are some who are so certain about the market’s next big move, but most of them have been saying the same thing for months as well. If we all take a step back and look at this market from an honest and larger-degree perspective, we will realize we have gone nowhere. Coming into 2014, I was quite clear that I expected the early part of 2014 to represent the market at an inflection point, and it surely has not disappointed.

Read Full Article At MarketWatch Source

Sell in May and go-away?

May is approaching and everyone (and their brother-in-law) will be out with the "sell in May and go-away" thesis. FBN Financial's technical analyst is one of the first with a report today that notes there is validity to the argument after assessing 20-years of data. The May-October period has accounted for -4% of the return from the S&P 500 over the period. Combine this with the historical market uncertainty that usually falls through the summer during mid-term election years, one should keep their options open.

http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/04/25/SP-slashes-Russias-rating.aspx

Apple Earnings +16% above the Street's estimate...Merger's Continue

Apple -- the grand daddy of value
The chase by Frances Horodelski:

Whew - the day hasn't even started and there is so much going on.

First, so far this year, across the world there have been $1.3 trillion US worth of mergers announced and we're running at levels last seen on a quarterly basis in 2008. Today, we have a number in the works including GE sniffing around France's Alstom SA, according to Bloomberg and other sources. GE has some $57 billion in stranded cash overseas and this acquisition could eat up $13 billion or so for the builder of trains and power plants. Telekom Austria is up on America Movil (Carlos Slim's company) moves. There are rumours that LG Household could be looking at Elizabeth Arden - and it's not even 7 o'clock ET. And another one just in with Zimmer Holdings (the knees and hips company) has offered to buyBiomet (a worldwide leader in the design and manufacture of products for the orthopedic, sports medicine, dental markets and more.)

Second, earnings. I count at least 60 first quarter earnings reports today from companies as diverse asEquifax, Altria, Caterpillar and D.R. Horton through Hershey, Dunkin' Donuts, Eli Lilly, 3M and after the closeStarbucks, Amazon and Microsoft. Canada plays the game as well with Potash, OpenText, Transforce, Toromont and Lundin Mining reporting. AndCaterpillar just reported a big beat at $1.61 vs $1.23 expectations and raised its 2014 forecast - what slowdown you say?

Third, how about that Apple? Revenue beat and iPhone unit sales were about 16% above the Street's estimate. And then, of course, there is the buyback increase (50% boost), a higher dividend (by 25 cents/quarter) and a 7-1 split (making Apple a more eligible candidate for the Dow Jones Industrials Average). Carl Icahn is happy - here's one of his two tweets following the earnings announcement "Agree completely with $AAPL's increased buyback and extremely pleased with results. Believe we'll also be happy when we see new products." My problem is that the company, to pay for its increased buyback and dividend activity will be borrowing this year an amount similar to last year's borrowings. My quick calculation shows that since 2008, Apple's total asset have risen 5.7-fold, BUT total long-term liabilities have risen 16-fold. Now, don't get me wrong, Apple is still wildly underleveraged (total equity is $120 billion with cash and long term investments of $150 billion versus debt of $17 billion (and total long term liabilities of $39.4 billion). But borrowing to buy back stock - I just don't know. BUT enjoy the ride, the stock is cheap, the balance sheet is strong and as growth gives way to value, Apple, as I have noted repeatedly on The Buzz and elsewhere, is the grand-daddy of value.

Fourth, with all the earnings (65% beating expectations on earnings which are growing at a very modest 1.6% year over year), don't forget the trees. After six days of gains, yesterday was a day of rest. Apple and Facebook are boosting sentiment this morning and 1,900 on the S&P is so tantalizingly close, a shot at it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. And with sentiment muted and lots of money on the sidelines it seems like an easy forecast. But the easy forecast isn't always the one that materializes. While the world seems to have turned their attention inward, don't forget the hot spots like Ukraine/Russia and China/Japan are still there waiting to be reviewed again.

Markets Wrap

Market
INDEX	CLOSE	CHANGE	% CHANGE
S&P/TSX	14493.6800	-6.710	-0.050%
S&P/TSX V	997.2100	-1.560	-0.160%
CAN $	0.9066	-0.001	-0.090%
DJIA	16449.2500	+40.710	0.250%
S&P 500	1871.8900	+7.040	0.380%
Nasdaq	4121.5500	+26.030	0.640%
Gold	1290.0000	-3.900	-0.300%
Oil	103.5900	+0.220	0.210%

This stock market needs a correction Opinion: Be proactive, not reactive — and buckle up

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — When the stock market becomes unmanageable – as it’s been lately — you have to manage expectations.

Easier said than done. With the S&P 500 SPX -0.95%   down 2% on Thursday , and the Nasdaq COMP -1.34%   down 3%, anxiety grows and perspective goes.

What now? Contain your emotions. This market is in transition, and transitions are rarely as smooth as we would like. You have to find ways to handle change more skillfully. Not more easily, because change is hard. But competently, composed, and with the conviction that if you can’t do this yourself, there are trustworthy financial professionals who can help.

There’s an old truism about investing that a stock doesn’t know you own it and doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Yet after the stunning 30% return the S&P 500 gave investors in 2013, it’s been easy to welcome stocks back into the fold. That market meltdown is so 2008; all is forgiven, please come home.

Instead, stocks have been unforgiving. Another old adage -- “Don’t confuse brilliance with a bull market”-- also applies now. Anyone can make money in a bull market. Investors prove themselves when they can outsmart the average bear.

That’s your job now. The slide in highflying biotechnology IBB -2.90%and other momentum stocks could trigger a real correction for the S&P 500 – that painful 10%-plus tumble which hasn’t been experienced since the summer of 2011.

So pay attention to investors who’ve seen it all before. Retired market technician Bob Farrell is always a good resource. His 10 “Market Rules to Remember” offers investors a reality check on stocks, bonds and their money.

For example, consider Farrell’s Rule No. 6: “Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.”

What Farrell is saying is that investors can be their own worst enemy. The counter to fear and greed is self-control. Don’t believe it’s different this time. Don’t chase the hottest sectors and stocks. Keep enough cash on hand so you’re not dumping stocks at fire-sale prices when pessimism is high.

In this way, you can be ready to buy when others are selling and scoop up the bargains from your stock-market shopping list (Always have a shopping list.)

Remember, Mr. Market is mortal. “There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent,” Farrell noted in another of his famous rules.

In other words, wait for your pitch. Diversify your portfolio’s risk to a level that is true and honest, and then the stock market’s stumbles can become opportunities.

Source

Markets Fear Vs Greed

Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices way too far.

So what emotion is driving the market now? CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index makes it clear.

We look at 7 indicators:

•Stock Price Momentum: The S&P 500 (SPX) versus its 125-day moving average

•Stock Price Strength: The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange

•Stock Price Breadth: The volume of shares trading in stocks on the rise versus those declining.

•Put and Call Options: The put/call ratio, which compares the trading volume of bullish call options relative to the trading volume of bearish put options

•Junk Bond Demand: The spread between yields on investment grade bonds and junk bonds

•Market Volatility: The VIX (VIX), which measures volatility

•Safe Haven Demand: The difference in returns for stocks versus Treasuries

For each indicator, we look at how far they've veered from their average relative to how far they normally veer. We look at each on a scale from 0 - 100. The higher the reading, the greedier investors are being, and 50 is neutral.

Then we put all the indicators together - equally weighted - for a final index reading.

Source

Indexes Pull Back Dow, Russell,Nasdaq,S+P

This Is A Favorite Interactive Commercial Of Ours - Hope You Enjoy It!

For traders this is the most important data point of the month

Double jobs day
The chase by Frances Horodelski:

“If jobs were so important, everyone would have one”

For traders this is the most important data point of the month. Way back in the caveman days of trading, we used to all hang around the Dow Jones Newswirewaiting for the CPI data every month – that was the most important data point when inflation was rising and the Fed was tightening, but that is a story foranother day.

The U.S. estimate for jobs is around 200,000 jobs (although the consensus has waivered to 195,000 a few times) versus last month at 162,000 with a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.6%. Economists at RBC say they will be watching wages. “Given the uninterrupted uptrend in hourly wages, a reversal higher (estimate 0.2%) in hours means there is potential upside to the wage pie near-term. This is after all what matters for consumption (not the level of headcount).”

Those wages are needed to pay debts and according to a recent report on delinquency rates in the U.S. on consumer debt, those wages are needed.

Mortgage debt delinquencies (which were 1.5% in 2007) are now 4.5%; student debt delinquencies are running at 12%.

In Canada, it is also jobs day. After a crazy year of big increases and big declines, this month the dart has landed on an estimate of +22,500 for March. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 7%.

Another casualty of the railcar capacity issues – ethanol. According to a letter to Dennis Gartman “our ethanol plants have been running at reduced capacity not for economic reasons but because our finished ethanol tanks are almost running over with no railcars in sight.”

Also with reference to Gartman, he has added “coal” in the past few days as it seems inordinately cheap. Yesterday morning our colleague Andrew McCreath noted his homework was being done on the thermal coal names such as Peabody (BTU) – you have two days in front of you to do your own analysis.

Let’s talk rumours. Yesterday it was that Lululemon (LULU-Q) could be a take-out target. With 21% of LULU short, that could be a painful for traders. This morning, those who follow options activity suggest that Kellogg (K-N) might be a target. Almost 21% of Kellogg is owned by the Kellogg foundation. Remy Cointreau was up 11% at one time in Paris trading as a trading blog said Brown-Forman is working with Goldman Sachs to consider a possible purchase.

Some interesting weak names in the market so far this year (and some which have been previous darlings): Whole Foods (-10%), Amazon (-17%), Mattel (-16%), Catamaran (-4%), Avigilon (-3%), Empire (-8%), Horizon North (-16%), Dream Unlimited (-9%) and Air Canada (22%). AC.B was upgraded to buy at Scotia this morning with a an outperform and $7.25 target.

In research, an item that stands out is one on Apple from BMO Capital Markets that notes that June quarterly numbers on the street, in their view, are too high especially the revenue line. BMO however has raised its own earnings estimates due to the aggressive share buyback, they rate the stock outperform with a $565 target (up $5 from the previous target). Three catalysts for the shares are highlighted: 1) large screen iPhone; 2) a wearable category; 3) more services. Apple did lose a patent-use bid in a $2 billion Samsung trial.

Canadian politicians are talking today: Industry Minister Moore is in Waterloo on the digital economy (BNN will be there as will the CEO of OpenText), Transportation Minister Raitt will be presenting at the CAPP conference speaking on energy on behalf of Energy Minister Rickford. We will be interviewing the head of pipelines from TransCanada and the CEO of Nuvista – both from the conference.

Grubhub was priced last night (the online restaurant delivery and pick-up service) at $26 (above the $23-$25 range). It starts trading today under the symbol GRUB. And while it seems like the IPO market is running over, it is only in the number of deals, not dollar value. Last February, there were 179 IPOs for a total value of $33.64 billion. This February, 212 deals but only $17.8B in value. March 2013 233 deals at $30.7 billion; this March 262 deals but 12% less in value ($27 billion).

Markets are higher in Europe and the futures. Chinese markets bounced. Everyone is waiting – for what? The Blue Jays opener? Disney’s Captain America? Itis a big day. Enjoy.

S&P 500 will peak around 1,900 to 1,950 then drop 30%

 

S&P 500 will peak around 1,900 to 1,950 then drop 30%: Saxo Bank strategist

 

And if investors only have the potential of around 5% upside from here, Jakobsen says it may be worth backing out of equities starting now. “Take out the money you earned over the last year and if you want to invest it right now, put it in U.S. and German bonds,” he says.

 

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/03/sp-500-will-peak-around-1900-to-1950-then-drop-30-saxo-bank-strategist/ 

 

 

Markets crash all the time...YET S&P 500 made another new high yesterday

"Markets crash all the time. You should, at minimum, expect stocks to fall at least 10% once a year, 20% once every few years, 30% or more once ortwice a decade, and 50% or more once or twice during your lifetime. Those who don't understand this will eventually learn it the hard way." - MorganHousel (from Barry Ritholtz)

The S&P 500 made another new high yesterday. According to Howard Silverblatt, there have been 565 new closing highs since 1977. Of those, the index went on to post another new closing high the next day 25.7% of the time and then to produce a third consecutive high 56.3% of the time. The TSX is trading at the highest level since 2008.

http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/04/03/Staying-safe-as-markets-surge.aspx