Cheap earnings growth, according to PEGY

What are we looking for?

A screen for dividend stocks that are cheap yet have strong earnings growth.

More about today’s screen

We’ll use PEG ratios again today. PEG stands for price/earnings to growth and is a ratio that helps investors figure out whether they’re overpaying for a stock’s earnings growth.

A week ago, we asked Morningstar CPMS to help us with a PEG screen for Canadian stocks and today we take that screen a step further for dividend stocks.

First, some more background. As we said a week ago, PEG is calculated by taking the P/E and dividing it by earnings growth. For instance, if a company’s P/E is 10 and its earnings growth is 10 per cent, then its PEG would be 1. If the P/E were just five on earnings growth of 10 per cent, then the PEG would be 0.5. If the P/E were 20 on growth of 10 per cent then the PEG would be 2.

Lower PEGs are better if you want to buy cheap growth.

Morningstar CPMS, a Toronto-based equity research and portfolio analysis firm, maintains a database of about 660 of the largest and more liquid stocks in the country and spends a lot of time adjusting for unusual accounting items in each company’s quarterly results to make sure screens can perform correctly.

After reading about the PEG screen last week, one reader, Biff Matthews, who is chairman of Manitou Investment Management Ltd., suggested the screen be adjusted for dividend stocks using what is called the PEGY ratio. This ratio is calculated by taking the P/E and dividing it by: five-year normalized earnings growth plus expected dividend yield (the Y in PEGY stands for yield).

Jamie Hynes, senior consultant at Morningstar CPMS, also added the following criteria to the screen: Stocks are selected from the S&P/TSX equity index, and limited to a maximum five stocks per sector and a dividend yield greater than 1 per cent.

CPMS uses five-year earnings growth normalized to remove unusual accounting items. Some readers wrote last week that using historical earnings can be misleading because historical results do not necessarily indicate future results. That might be true, but it’s the best measurement we have. Few analysts forecast out more than two years and we want to make sure the screen isn’t thrown off by short-term or temporary earnings fluctuations.

What did we find out?

Over the past year, the PEGY screen has done well, but not as well as the PEG screen. The PEGY screen returned 17 per cent over the past year, versus 11.6 per cent for the S&P/TSX total return index and 23 per cent for the PEG screen.

It’s over the long term where PEGY shines.

“Simply reselecting the top 20 stocks based on the PEGY ratio annually produces an annualized return of 17.5 per cent versus 9.9 per cent for the S&P/TSX total return index and 13.7 per cent for the PEG ratio since Dec. 31, 1992,” Mr. Hynes said.

(Stocks in this screen include: Rogers Communications , Fairfax Financial , Bombardier Inc. , Aecon Group Inc. , Home Capital Group , Shaw Communications SJR.B-T, Yamana Gold Inc. , Laurentian Bank , Genworth MI Canada Inc. , SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. , Cogeco Cable Inc. , Atco Ltd. , Corus Entertainment CJR.B-T, Canadian Western Bank , WestJet Airlines Ltd. , Forzani Group Ltd. , CAE Inc. , Metro Inc. , TELUS Corp. and Saputo Inc. )

VOLUME LEADERS

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Volume Related Info PVE-DBE.TO PROVIDENT ENERGY TRUST DEBS 100.30 9:45AM EST 0.30 (0.30%) 3,249,000 More FAN.TO FARALLON MINING LTD. 0.68 9:45AM EST 0.02 (3.03%) 2,269,804 Reports, More DML.TO DENISON MINES CORP. 2.99 9:44AM EST 0.19 (6.79%) 1,703,545 Reports, More UUU.TO URANIUM ONE INC. 5.14 9:44AM EST 0.04 (0.78%) 1,693,549 Reports, More ELR.TO EASTERN PLATINUM LIMITED 1.88 9:44AM EST 0.06 (3.30%) 1,635,458 Reports, More OEX.TO ORLEANS ENERGY LTD. 2.20 9:41AM EST 0.00 (0.00%) 1,510,520 Reports, More FIU.TO FIRST URANIUM CORPORATION 1.34 9:44AM EST 0.16 (13.56%) 1,510,372 Reports, More FTS.TO FORTIS INC 33.04 9:44AM EST 0.28 (0.84%) 1,289,693 Reports, More SQZ.TO SERICA ENERGY PLC 0.73 9:40AM EST 0.07 (10.61%) 1,099,104 More YRI.TO YAMANA GOLD INC 12.31 9:44AM EST 0.38 (3.19%) 1,078,132 Reports, More ECU.TO ECU SILVER MINING INC. 1.30 9:44AM EST 0.17 (15.04%) 1,035,056 Reports, More EQN.TO EQUINOX MINERALS LIMITED 5.87 9:44AM EST 0.52 (8.14%) 1,034,807 Reports, More LUN.TO LUNDIN MINING CORP. 7.05 9:44AM EST 0.22 (3.22%) 1,020,583 Reports, More ORV.TO ORVANA MINERALS J 3.50 9:44AM EST 0.16 (4.79%) 980,877 Reports, More PDN.TO PALADIN ENERGY LTD. 5.02 9:44AM EST 0.16 (3.29%) 923,997 Reports, More TLM.TO TALISMAN ENERGY INC. 20.30 9:45AM EST 0.42 (2.11%) 910,583 Reports, More RSC.TO STRATECO RESOURCES INC. 0.83 9:43AM EST 0.07 (9.21%) 907,600 Reports, More CCO.TO CAMECO CORP 37.75 9:45AM EST 1.77 (4.92%) 859,232 Reports, More OPC.TO OPTI CANADA INC. 0.88 9:44AM EST 0.02 (2.22%) 815,117 Reports, More BIM.TO BAFFINLAND IRON MINES CORP 1.12 9:37AM EST 0.01 (0.90%) 788,302 Reports, More MFC.TO MANULIFE FIN 15.32 9:45AM EST 0.08 (0.52%) 779,206 Reports, More VRO.TO VERO ENERGY INC. 6.50 9:43AM EST 0.04 (0.61%) 751,000 Reports, More HNU.TO HORIZONS BETA PRO NYMEX NAT GAS 6.56 9:44AM EST 0.02 (0.30%) 739,747 More UEX.TO UEX CORP 2.39 9:44AM EST 0.31 (14.90%) 732,038 Reports, More G.TO GOLDCORP INC 48.85 9:44AM EST 0.98 (2.05%) 718,934 Reports, More

VOLUME LEADERS

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Volume Related Info BTR.V BONTERRA RESOURCES INC. 0.295 9:45AM EST 0.06 (25.53%) 3,423,000 Profile, Reports, More CMA.V Cream Minerals Ltd. 0.155 9:45AM EST 0.045 (40.91%) 2,657,800 Profile, Reports, More GCM.V GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD CORP 0.47 9:45AM EST 0.01 (2.17%) 2,356,100 Profile, Reports, More RUU.V STANS ENERGY CORP. 1.10 9:45AM EST 0.12 (12.24%) 2,203,913 Profile, Reports, More ORM.V OREMEX RESOURCES INC 0.265 9:45AM EST 0.05 (23.26%) 1,347,850 Profile, Reports, More BSX.V BELO SUN MINING CORP. 0.76 9:45AM EST 0.12 (18.75%) 948,520 Profile, Reports, More USA.V U.S. SILVER CORPORATION 0.81 9:45AM EST 0.10 (14.08%) 908,887 Profile, Reports, More CBX.V CORTEX BUSINESS SOLUTIONS INC. 0.50 9:42AM EST 0.00 (0.00%) 752,500 Profile, Reports, More TWD.V TRADE WINDS VENTURES INC. 0.35 9:43AM EST 0.02 (6.06%) 598,327 Profile, Reports, More VAE.V VIRGINIA ENERGY RESOURCES INC. 0.55 9:43AM EST 0.08 (17.02%) 588,500 Profile, Reports, More CUI.V Currie Rose Resources Inc. 0.245 9:45AM EST 0.015 (6.52%) 577,000 Profile, Reports, More MMT.V Mart Resources Inc 0.59 9:45AM EST 0.04 (7.27%) 499,842 Profile, Reports, More PIE.V PRIMARY PETROLEUM CORPORATION 0.63 9:45AM EST 0.07 (12.50%) 496,480 Profile, Reports, More IAE.V ITHACA ENERGY INC. 2.38 9:44AM EST 0.05 (2.06%) 472,469 Profile, Reports, More UCU.V UCORE RARE METALS INC 0.46 9:45AM EST 0.01 (2.13%) 466,100 Profile, Reports, More AVR.V AVION GOLD CORPORATION 1.04 9:45AM EST 0.07 (7.22%) 456,256 Profile, Reports, More TVC.V TOURNIGAN ENERGY LTD. 0.355 9:43AM EST 0.005 (1.43%) 451,937 Profile, Reports, More WOF.V WOULFE MINING CORP. 0.19 9:43AM EST 0.025 (15.15%) 440,600 Profile, Reports, More RPX.V RED PINE EXPLORATION INC. 0.12 9:43AM EST 0.01 (7.69%) 440,000 Profile, Reports, More STM.V STRATHMORE MINERALS CORP. 1.04 9:45AM EST 0.11 (11.83%) 420,550 Profile, Reports, More UC.V UC RESOURCES LTD. 0.11 9:42AM EST 0.00 (0.00%) 395,000 Profile, Reports, More XEL.V XCITE ENERGY LIMITED 3.80 9:45AM EST 0.33 (9.51%) 390,734 Profile, More URC.V URACAN RESOURCES LTD. 0.315 9:44AM EST 0.005 (1.56%) 389,100 Profile, Reports, More TUE.V TITAN URANIUM INC. 0.40 9:42AM EST 0.005 (1.27%) 383,803 Profile, Reports, More KWG.V KWG RESOURCES INC. 0.105 9:30AM EST 0.005 (4.55%) 49,391 Profile, Reports, More