The chase by Marty Cej:
This debate was brought to you by the letter R. R stands for Romney and rout. It stands for Republican and rebound. The letter R can be found in retort and recharge. The letter R comes before the letter S in the alphabet. S is for Sesame Street, and so long.
The first U.S. presidential debate went off last night without much debate. While there is not a single American this morning who has a clearer idea of what either side's economic plan is than they had yesterday, but they do have a clearer idea of who was prepared and who wasn't. The most important question for the market to answer is whether Republican candidate Mitt Romney's late charge is too late to make a difference. Remember, while the November 6 election is still a month away, voting has already begun in 35 states and some 6 percent of those able to vote early have already cast their ballots.
We will check in with Kenneth Bickers at 9:05 am Eastern. He's a poli-sci prof at the University of Colorado whose proprietary statistical analysis has correctly predicted each presidential election since 1980. His research in late August predicted a Romney win (I know, right!); we'll see if that still stands. Carl Wolfenden, Exchange Operations Manager at Intrade, joins us at 9:45 am Eastern for the most up-to-date read on the market's expectations for the election outcome.
Headline will feature an all-star political panel to weigh the changing fortunes of the candidates vying for control of the world's biggest economy at 1:00 pm Eastern. Howard sits down with Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office and Jeff Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and a member of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Bill Clinton.
At 1:20, we'll look specifically at what's at stake for Canada with Raymond Chretien, former Canadian ambassador to the U.S.
The European Central Bank lefts its benchmark interest rate unchanged this morning at 0.75 percent as expected while it waits for Spain to ask for a bailout, a move that would act as a spark to light the fuse of the ECB's bond-buying blunderbuss. It was a month ago when ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a plan to backstop the euro by promising to buy bonds from the governments that needed the most help to drive borrowing costs lower. The thing of it is, the countries that need the most help have to ask for help and whatever help is granted will come with conditions. Draghi's bold move – when you stand up to the Bundesbank and Bundestag you are bold, period - was successful in driving yields lower in Spain and Italy as the promise/threat of unlimited bond-buying sent bond vultures off in search of other corpses. Draghi's plan would be called a perfect success if the promise of boundless debt purchases resulted in no bond purchases at all, but it's almost as if the market wants to see the ECB pull out the big gun so it is goading Spain into asking for a bailout (oh, go on, Spain. Everyone's doing it. What? Are you chicken?). Draghi has begun to take questions from the media beginning at 8:30 am Eastern. He should be wearing a pancho and spurs and chewing on a cigarillo.
The NDP will reveal its official position on CNOOC's proposed takeover of Nexen at 10:00 am Eastern. We'll take the announcement live and try to handicap what the NDP's position, as the official opposition in Parliament, will mean to the potential success or failure of the bid.
U.S. retailers are releasing same-store sales for September as I type. So far, of the 14 big retailers that have reported, 54 percent have missed expectations. The stocks will move: Canaccord cut its price target for Limited Brands to $48 a few moments ago. The stock closed yesterday at $50.24.
