And from this post from Atheena wrote on Stockhouse: Hello again friends :-)
I've already posted about what the near term catalysts are, but in the spirit of trying to get some of the group members to climb off the ledge of the mountain here goes...
The cannabis space is in its infancy. I know there were chances to buy these companies at under a dollar and some for pennies but that was for people who were willing to accept more risk. It was never certain that Cannabis would become legal on the REC side and so all the hype could have ended badly for those that invested early. (However I think that the medical alone would have justified their early investment as anything bought under 100 million market cap was an obvious long term win)
Now we fast forward 18-24 months and we are set on OCT 17th for FULL LEGALIZATION.
Please let that sink in. That means that a BRAND NEW market is being established. If it were coffee/tea that was the product would that excite you? We can all agree that the coffee/tea market is massive and people can make it at home and do...however many people LOVE to buy a freshly brewed cup of coffee/tea at their local spots like Starbucks/Timmies/McDonald's and various mom and pop shops and restaurants. Regardless of how much people brew at home, the market at 1-4 dollars a drink is crushing it, recording massive profits for those involved.
So we have a new market that has 3-6 major players in it. The rest are not major players and don't have the volume to compete globally. The coffee/tea market has FAR more than 6 major players and they've been consolidating in that space for the last 30 years!!! The Canadian market for coffee and tea was under 2 billion total last year. Am I starting to create interest? The cannabis market is going to be over 6 billion (by some reports 10 billion +). No matter how it all shakes out a few things will be absolutely certain. There will be consolidation (buyouts will continue) and larger companies in the PHARMA, ALCOHOL and TOBACCO space will NEED to gain entry.
How does this happen? Well first thing is that in any business plan a large company is looking to gain market share immediately. This is what Constellation Brands did by investing in Canopy Growth. They wanted first mover advantage and made a VERY astute move by getting the largest company and securing their position. This is FANTASTIC NEWS for AURORA and APHRIA which are next in line for a HUGE investment which will solidify their position as it did for Canopy Growth (putting a price base in effect that is rock solid).
Now to evaluate the suitors.
In the Tobacco space we have:
Imperial tobacco 39 billion USD
Phillip Morris 27 billion USD
British Imperial 20 billion USD
In the Alcohol space we have:
Anheuser-Busch 46 billion USD
Heinekin 23 billion USD
Diageo 15 billion USD
Constellation Brands 7 billion USD
Molson-Coors 5 billion USD
In the Big Pharma space we have:
Johnson & Johnson 77 billion USD
Roche 57 billion USD
Pfizer 53 billion USD
Novartis 49 billion USD
These are just SOME of the players...each list could have had at least 5-10 more suitors that have 5-40 billion is sales.
Now let's look at what we know about APHRIA. There are over 150 employees with ramp up we'll be at 400+. All the facilities (and there are a lot of them! Check them out online...look at the pictures!) are fully paid for and Aphria has hundreds of millions in the bank at the moment ready to be deployed. Aphria is well capitalized and their corporate infrastruture is solid. They have a very strong group of talented people in management and are constantly improving their depth.
APH has hired key members of DIAGEO, MOLSON-COORS and SOUTHERN GLAZER'S. They are developing a corporate structure that will entice a large entity to either invest heavily as Constellation Brands did with Canopy OR attempt a buy out. The beauty of this is that DIAGEO is more than double the size of Constellation!!
That type of investment or interest could catapult APHRIA into a different league. An interest from Molson Coors would in the same approximate scale as Constellation Brands but keep in mind that the MAJOR players are not in the picture as far as we can see now. If a PHARMA or TOBACCO company joined the fray things would get very interesting immediately. Remember that the ONLY 2 companies left with any real capacity for 2019 are AURORA and APHRIA.
Aurora is hamstrung because they have WAY too many shares outstanding. It will limit their valuation.
Well I hope that this info might help calm the nerves of some of the people that refuse or do not know how to read and do research on the internet. Other than my accumen of being a business person for 27 years in senior management I don't have any skills that the average person doesn't also have at their disposal. I know that my profession helps me see the big picture clearer than most people but the info that is on the internet can paint you the same picture if you use your common sense.
The CANNABIS market is going to be huge. IT is going to be profitable and it is going to garner the attention of many larger WHALES in the industry. Stop wasting your time hating and trying to scare off inexperienced investors. There is LIFE ALTERING money to made here still. We are in the early stages. Many people have already made millions between the under a dollar stage and now. I suggest that some of you load up with RRSP's and TAX FREE savings accounts at these prices as we are in for a double in 18 months (with absolute certainty). After that? Who knows...it's too early to tell. Just don't be overly greedy. Buy in, don't sell if it goes below your entry...wait 6-18 months and set a price to cash out that is AT LEAST 50% higher than today. Take my advice and you'll make a ton of easy money.
I wish you all much success and happiness...don't invest more than you afford to lose (unlike me, who is 100% invested in APH...to the tune of a lot of money)
Good luck,
Atheena
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.aph/aphria-inc?postid=28219873#6dFSVhfJdbyK38Yh.99
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