From copper to stocks, several world markets are dancing with key technical support levels and the way they break could set the tone for investors’ fortunes for the rest of the year.
Amid the uncertainty, investors pour into gold, sending spot prices to a new record high Tuesday of just more than US$1,252 an ounce.
“The markets around the world, they’re at critical support areas, and they really have to hold in here,” said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist at Bell Curve Trading. “I’m watching the S&P 500, because if the U.S. rally fails, I can’t imagine the other countries rallying while the U.S. gets crushed. All these markets are struggling.”
Soothing words from Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, broke the negative spell Tuesday but investor uncertainty reigns.
He said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and the country should avoid a double-dip recession.
“I would say if nothing else, bearish sentiment rules the market,” said John Lonski, chief economist with Moody’s Investment Services Inc. in New York. “There’s a lot of anxiety. That’s what all these [gold and copper] prices are telling me.”
Copper prices slipped through February lows around US$2.90 per pound on Friday. While the industrial metal, used extensively in construction, broke a six-day losing streak to close up at US$2.78 Tuesday, it is still in danger of breaking key support from the fall of 2009.
“In April we saw copper at over $3.60,” said Bart Melek, economist BMO Capital Markets. “But then we started seeing concern that China might slow its economy down intentionally, which has led to concerns that the real estate market in China could slide.”
The Dow Jones industrial average is 11% off its late April high while the S&P 500 has dropped 13%, a decline that puts them over the 10% level that marks a correction.
The S&P/TSX Composite has fallen 6% since its April high of 12,280.97, the most severe setback for Canadian markets since stocks began to recover in March 2009.
The slide in U.S. stocks has taken the S&P 500 to within striking distance oft the October 2009 lows of around 1,036.
Mr. Strazzullo said the 1,040 to 1,050 areas are crucial for the market. “This is really the last line in the sand,” he said. “If you don’t hold it here the rally from the March 2009 rally is over.”
Worries that have been driving stocks and copper lower — the European sovereign debt crisis and concerns about global growth — have been driving gold higher.
The metal is up 14% this year and could be heading for its 10th consecutive annual gain, which would be the longest winning streak since 1920. Holdings in ETFs backed by gold reached records in May, while there has been an increase in coin sales from mints.
Despite bearish signs throughout global markets, Mr. Bernanke’s comments were able to reassure investors Tuesday.
The S&P/TSX ended up 12.44 to 11,517.18 while the S&P 500 posted a gain of 1.1% to 1,062. and the Dow closed up 1.3% to 9,939.98.
However, Mr. Lonski said the gains aren’t anything to celebrate just yet, and judging from previous market corrections, things could get worse.
“I still see a lot of volatility still ahead,” Mr. Lonski said. “[The] peak U.S. value of market common stock is only off by 14%, and previous corrections of this particular sort, especially 1998 and 2002, included peak-to-trough decline by the market of between 20% and 30%.”
Financial Post
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