Tuesday, March 29, 2016

It's a Yellen kind of day


The chase by Frances Horodelski:

According to Music History, on this day in 1980, Pink Floyd’s album The Dark Side of the Moon spent its 303rd week on the U.S. album chart. It went on to stay on that list for a total of 741 weeks – and combined with other charts is was listed for a total of 1500 weeks from 1973 through 2006.
Today is a Yellen kind of day. After various members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee (Barron’s frequently uses this description) spoke hawkishly last week, many expect Janet Yellenwho is speaking at the Economic Club of New York to be her usual dovish self. Note that the futures curve shows a 6 percent probability of a hike in April and just 38 percent probability for June. Watchers suggest that there is zero chance that the Fed will make a decision in the face of a Brexit vote (scheduled for June 23 while the Fed decision in June 15). A July move is a coin toss. There are two other FOMC members speaking today, including John Williams from San Francisco, who is already on the tape discussing gradual and thoughtful increases as warranted by the data. However, Yellen’s comments will be most watched, and “inflation expectations” will be a key to understanding what she is thinking.
There are also earnings from companies such as Lennar, and 3M has an investor day. In Canada, Finance Minister Morneau will be in Quebec marketing his budget. Economically, we have the Case Shiller housing data and March consumer confidence in the U.S. and industrial product pricing in Canada.
In corporate news, we’ll follow up on the FBI’s ability to unlock a terrorist’s iPhone as it relates generally to security and cyber issues, and how it might impact Blackberry (which reports on Friday). Currently there are 41 buy ratings on Apple, six holds and just two sells.

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