Canada’s Stock Market Is Beating the World—But Is the Viral Claim True?

Canada’s Stock Market Is Beating the World—But Is the Viral Claim True?

🇨🇦 A striking claim has been circulating online:

“Canada’s stock market is the fastest-growing among the world’s 10 largest since March 2025.”

The verdict from Treasure Picks: The underlying story is true, but the wording needs clarification.

Canada Really Was a Global Market Leader

Canada delivered one of the strongest stock-market performances in the world during 2025.

The S&P/TSX Composite gained approximately 30% during the year, substantially outperforming the American market. Morningstar reported that Canadian stocks had risen more than 29% through December 19, 2025, while its broad U.S. market index had gained about 15%.

That performance placed Canada at or near the top when the world’s 10 largest stock markets were ranked by their 2025 returns.

Canada’s rally also continued into 2026. On August 10, 2026, the S&P/TSX Composite closed at a record 36,458.33—up more than 31% from one year earlier.

Where Does the “Since March 2025” Claim Come From?

The viral claim appears to combine Canada’s top-ranking 2025 performance with the market’s continued advance since March 2025.

Depending on the exact March starting date and measurement used, the gain can vary considerably. Some social-media posts cite approximately 41%, but that figure may refer to the growth of Canada’s total stock-market value rather than the percentage increase in the S&P/TSX Composite itself.

Therefore, the safest and most accurate conclusion is:

Canada led the world’s 10 largest stock markets during 2025 and has continued reaching record highs in 2026.

That statement is well supported. Saying it has been the fastest-growing continuously “since March 2025” requires a clearly identified dataset and comparison method.

Why Has Canada Been So Strong?

Several forces helped propel Canadian stocks higher.

1. Gold and mining companies

Gold’s powerful rise benefited Canadian mining companies. Canada has a much larger materials-sector weighting than the American market, making the TSX especially responsive when gold, silver and other commodities rise.

2. Canadian banks

Financial companies represent more than one-third of the S&P/TSX Composite. Strong bank earnings and rising valuations have become important drivers of the Canadian rally.

3. Energy stocks

Canadian oil and natural-gas producers have benefited from periods of higher energy prices and increased concern about global supplies.

4. Less dependence on mega-cap technology

The TSX is not dominated by a small collection of giant technology companies. Its heavier exposure to banks, energy, mining and industrial companies gave investors an alternative when money rotated away from expensive technology shares.

5. Artificial-intelligence infrastructure

Canadian companies such as Celestica have benefited from the enormous investment being made in AI infrastructure. Celestica led the Toronto Stock Exchange’s 2025 TSX30 ranking after producing an extraordinary three-year dividend-adjusted return.

What Are North American Markets Doing Today?

As of the morning of Tuesday, August 11, 2026, North American markets were cautious but leaning slightly higher.

Canadian S&P/TSX futures were up approximately 0.07%, indicating a nearly flat opening after the index closed at another record high Monday.

In the United States, futures suggested modest opening gains:

• S&P 500 futures: approximately +0.1% to +0.2%
• Nasdaq futures: approximately +0.3%
• Dow futures: roughly flat to slightly positive

Investors are watching volatile oil prices, developments involving the Strait of Hormuz and important American inflation figures scheduled for release this week.

On Monday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.06%, the Dow declined 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32%. These were small declines, and the major American indexes remained close to record territory.

The Treasure Picks Bottom Line

Canada’s market success is real—not merely a patriotic social-media headline.

Canadian stocks led the largest global markets during 2025, and the S&P/TSX Composite has continued setting records in 2026. Its strength has been supported by banks, gold miners, energy producers, industrial companies and selected technology businesses.

However, investors should remember that a strong past return does not guarantee another strong year. Commodity prices, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events and corporate earnings can quickly change the market’s direction.

For now, Canada deserves its moment in the financial spotlight.

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Morningstar Canada, Reuters—Canadian market outlook, and Toronto Stock Exchange TSX30.

Disclaimer: Treasure Picks provides financial news and commentary for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing in this article should be considered personalized financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.

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Canada Is Winning Big Deals — And the World Is Taking Notice

There’s a powerful message coming out of a recent Bloomberg Businessweek Daily conversation: don’t underestimate Canada.

On August 6, 2026, Matt Winkler, Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of Bloomberg News, spoke with the hosts of Bloomberg Podcasts’ Businessweek Daily about Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the country’s position in an increasingly difficult and unpredictable world.

His assessment of Canadians was memorable:

“Canadians are like hobbits. They’ll save the world for you. You know, they’re consistently underestimated.”

That may sound humorous, but Winkler’s point is serious.

Canada has often been viewed as the quieter North American power — a country that doesn’t always make the most noise or demand the most attention.

But quiet should never be confused with weak.

🇨🇦 Mark Carney: Doing the Work

Winkler also had strong words about Prime Minister Mark Carney and the way he has approached leadership.

“Carney has consistently been underestimated, certainly by Trump and his enablers. And he’s somebody who does the work.”

That last sentence may be the most important one:

He does the work.

Winkler continued:

“And that’s sort of what Canada is about. He does the work, whatever the work is.”

There is something distinctly Canadian about that philosophy.

You don’t necessarily have to pound your chest.

You don’t have to dominate every headline.

You don't have to tell everyone how great you are.

You get the job done.

Canada Is Playing to Win

In a world of tariffs, trade disputes, geopolitical uncertainty and rapidly changing alliances, Canada has an opportunity to prove that steady leadership, strong institutions and international relationships still matter.

The United States will always be an enormously important neighbour, trading partner and ally. But Canada does not have to define its success solely by its relationship with America.

Canada can compete.

Canada can negotiate major deals.

Canada can build stronger relationships around the world.

And Canada can win.

That is especially important at a moment when many people assumed Canada would simply have to accept whatever terms came from Washington.

Winkler’s argument suggests something very different.

Canada — and Carney — may have been underestimated.

Integrity, Commitment and Gratitude

Winkler offered another observation that deserves attention:

“Canadians like that. They like people who have integrity, commitment and gratitude.”

Those three words — integrity, commitment and gratitude — describe a style of leadership that doesn’t depend on constant confrontation.

It depends on competence.

It depends on preparation.

And ultimately, it depends on results.

Canada doesn't need to become America to succeed.

Canada needs to become the strongest version of Canada.

Perhaps that is the real lesson behind Winkler’s wonderful comparison to the hobbits.

In The Lord of the Rings, the hobbits weren't the biggest, loudest or most intimidating characters in the story.

They were underestimated.

And then they changed everything.

Never underestimate the hobbits.

And never underestimate Canada. 🇨🇦

🎥 Watch the video:
https://youtu.be/0ZBaAehGVqI?si=5nYcnSyJ5Nh4PpwL

The quotations and assessments above are attributed to Matt Winkler from his August 6, 2026 appearance on Bloomberg Podcasts’ Businessweek Daily.

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RECORD HIGHS ON WALL STREET AND BAY STREET — BUT THE GENIE SEES A TWIST

🚨 TREASURE PICKS MARKET UPDATE

RECORD HIGHS ON WALL STREET AND BAY STREET — BUT THE GENIE SEES A TWIST

Friday, August 7, 2026 — After the Closing Bell

The closing bell rings. The numbers stop flashing. Freddy turns toward the Genie.

FREDDY: Genie, this morning we were watching war, oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Now the market has closed. What happened?

GENIE: Freddy, investors just finished a remarkable week.

The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time record, while Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite also closed at an all-time high. The Dow and Nasdaq posted strong gains as well, completing their biggest weekly percentage advances since April. 

🧞 THE CLOSING NUMBERS

Market	Friday Close	Daily Move	Weekly Move
🇺🇸 Dow Jones	54,036.93	▲ 0.28%	▲ 2.96%
🇺🇸 S&P 500	7,757.64 — RECORD CLOSE	▲ 0.62%	▲ 3.58%
🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite	26,690.62	▲ 1.30%	▲ 5.19%
🇨🇦 S&P/TSX Composite	36,381.23 — RECORD CLOSE	▲ 0.70%	▲ 3.3%

The Nasdaq was Friday’s standout, surging 342 points, while the S&P gained nearly 48 points. The Dow added about 152 points. On the TSX, Canada’s benchmark jumped almost 245 points. 

And this wasn’t a narrow rally. Advancing stocks beat decliners by roughly 2.5-to-1 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on Nasdaq, evidence that buying spread well beyond a handful of giant technology companies. 

🧞 FREDDY: WHAT CAUSED THE MARKET TO HIT RECORDS?

Here’s the strange part.

The biggest catalyst was bad economic news.

The United States unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected the economy to add 80,000 jobs. Previous months’ employment numbers were also revised sharply lower. 

Normally, losing jobs isn’t something Wall Street celebrates.

But the market interpreted it differently.

The Genie translation:

Weak jobs → less pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates → lower expected interest rates → higher stock valuations.

Before today’s employment report, markets were pricing roughly a 55% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.

After the report?

That probability fell to about 44%.

A week ago it had been around 67%. 

That’s a dramatic shift.

So today’s rally was partly Wall Street saying:

“The economy may be weakening — but that makes another Fed rate increase less likely.”

That’s the classic stock-market phenomenon sometimes described as bad news becoming good news.

🧞 BUT THERE’S ANOTHER ENGINE: CORPORATE PROFITS

This isn’t simply an interest-rate rally.

Corporate America is producing an exceptionally strong earnings season.

Of the 436 S&P 500 companies that had reported through Friday morning, 85.1% beat analysts’ earnings expectations.

The long-term average since 1994 is only about 68%. 

That’s a major difference.

So underneath today’s record are two powerful forces working together:

1. Exceptional earnings.

2. Expectations that the Fed may not need to tighten monetary policy as aggressively.

That combination is very friendly to stocks.

🚀 TECHNOLOGY CAME ROARING BACK

Nasdaq’s 1.30% gain tells another important part of today’s story.

Several individual names exploded higher.

SpaceX jumped 15.8%.

Atlassian surged 35.3%.

Microchip Technology climbed 13.9%.

Airbnb gained 17.4%. 

Technology and AI-linked investment remain critical drivers of this bull market, even though investors continue questioning whether enormous AI capital expenditures will ultimately generate sufficient returns.

For the full week, Nasdaq’s 5.19% advance comfortably beat both the Dow and S&P.

That’s significant momentum.

🇨🇦 AND CANADA JOINED THE RECORD PARTY

FREDDY: Genie, what about our side of the border?

GENIE: Canada wasn’t sitting this one out.

The TSX closed at 36,381.23, a fresh record, and gained 3.3% for the week — its best weekly performance in four months. 

Mining stocks were particularly powerful.

The TSX materials sector surged 4.7%, helped by gold reaching a seven-week high.

Some individual Canadian miners posted huge moves:

B2Gold: +22.5%

IAMGOLD: +13.7%

Real estate also benefited from falling expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, with the Canadian real-estate sector rising 1.1%. 

Canada also received considerably better employment news than the United States: Canadian employment increased by 75,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate declined for a third consecutive month. 

So Canada entered the weekend with both a record stock market and stronger employment data.

🛢️ NOW FOR THE WILD CARD: OIL

This morning we said oil remained one of the most important variables in the entire market.

That hasn’t changed.

Friday’s oil settlement:

WTI crude: $78.18 — up 1.15%

Brent crude: $83.55 — up 1.3% 

Oil therefore rose at the same time stocks reached record territory.

That’s important.

For much of this week, optimism surrounding a possible resolution to the Iran conflict pushed crude substantially lower. Even after Friday’s rebound, Brent still finished the week down more than 8%, while WTI lost more than 7%. 

But Friday reminded everyone that the conflict isn’t over.

⚔️ THE IRAN WAR STILL HAS ITS HAND ON THE OIL MARKET

The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has now extended into its sixth month.

And the critical issue continues to be the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passed through the strait. 

Negotiations involving Iran, Oman and the United States are attempting to determine how shipping could resume.

But major questions remain unresolved.

Iran reportedly wants ships transiting the strait to pay fees equal to roughly 5%–7% of cargo value.

Oman has discussed approximately 3%.

Washington wants no fees at all. 

There are also questions involving U.S. sanctions, insurance restrictions and whether U.S.-flagged or U.S.-owned vessels would actually be allowed passage.

That’s why oil traders remain nervous.

The market isn’t merely asking:

“Will there be a peace agreement?”

It’s asking:

“Will tankers actually be able to move safely and normally through Hormuz?”

Until that happens, oil retains a geopolitical risk premium.

🧞 THE GENIE’S BIG PICTURE

Here’s what makes today’s market fascinating.

We now have:

Record stock prices.

Strong corporate earnings.

A weakening U.S. employment picture.

Reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Oil still above $80 Brent.

An unresolved war involving one of the world’s most important oil corridors.

Those forces don’t normally sit comfortably beside one another.

Yet today they did.

The stock market is effectively betting that earnings remain strong enough to support corporate profits while economic weakness becomes just sufficient to keep the Federal Reserve from raising rates.

That’s a fairly narrow needle to thread.

If growth improves without reigniting inflation, bulls could have another powerful argument.

But if employment continues deteriorating rapidly, the narrative could change from:

“The Fed won’t raise rates.”

to:

“Why is the economy suddenly losing jobs?”

That’s the risk Treasure Picks investors shouldn’t ignore.

🔮 WHAT THE GENIE IS WATCHING NEXT

The next major test is inflation.

Wall Street enters next week at record levels, which means expectations are high. Reuters notes that upcoming U.S. inflation data could significantly influence whether investors again raise their expectations for a September Fed hike. 

So the setup is fascinating:

Soft inflation + strong earnings = potentially bullish.

Hot inflation = renewed rate-hike fears.

Major Iran peace breakthrough = potentially lower oil.

Hormuz escalation = potentially sharply higher oil and renewed inflation pressure.

And because the S&P 500 is already sitting at an all-time high, the market has considerably less room for disappointment.

🧞 TREASURE PICKS — THE GENIE’S CLOSING BELL VERDICT

FREDDY: Genie, give me one sentence for the Treasure Picks readers.

GENIE:

“Wall Street just climbed to the top of the mountain — now we find out whether earnings, interest rates and peace in the Middle East can keep it there.”

The bull market enters the weekend in command.

The S&P 500 is at a record.

The TSX is at a record.

The Dow is above 54,000.

The Nasdaq just gained more than 5% in a week.

But oil is climbing again, the Iran war isn’t over, Hormuz remains uncertain, and next week’s inflation numbers could change the interest-rate story very quickly.

🧞 Treasure Picks Bottom Line

Market trend: 🟢 Bullish

Momentum: 🟢 Strong

Corporate earnings: 🟢 Exceptional

Interest-rate outlook: 🟢 Improved for equities

Oil risk: 🟡 Elevated

Iran/Hormuz risk: 🟠 Unresolved

Biggest next economic test: 🔴 Inflation

Overall Genie Market Meter:

🧞📈

BULLISH — BUT DON’T TAKE YOUR EYES OFF OIL, INFLATION OR HORMUZ.

Treasure Picks — The Genie Interviews
Finding the treasure hidden inside the market noise.

Market commentary is for information and entertainment purposes and isn’t individualized investment advice.

The Genie Chronicles

Treasure Picks explores today’s investment opportunities.
The Genie Chronicles explores tomorrow’s.

Let me introduce you to an AI Genie. Artificial intelligence is changing business, investing, and everyday life faster than most people realize. Continue the journey through conversations, stories, practical experiences, and reflections about day-to-day living with AI.

Visit GenieChronicles.com
Read The Genie Chronicles

Read a free sample • Watch short Genie videos
Explore the books • Continue to Amazon