Friday, November 11, 2011

Keystone XL aftermath

The chase by Marty Cej:

"Hi, Kettle? Yeah, it's me, Pot. How are you? Me? Oh, I'm good, good. Just great, yeah, thanks. Anyhow…" The White House has been clear in its criticism of Europe's handling of the sovereign debt crisis, condemning the lack of leadership and will necessary to overcome the morass of local politics to find a lasting solution to a long-term systematic problem. Yesterday, with nary a wink or a nod, the White House said it would delay the permitting of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline until, ummmm, lemme check the ol' calendar here, ummm, yep, we'll put 'er on hold till after the 2012 election. Officially, the U.S. State Department's decision is meant to give the Obama administration more time to assess and analyze the impact of the pipeline on the "health and safety of the American people as well as the environment." Fine. Obama arrived at the White House with a promise to "free America from the tyranny of oil" so the decision is not necessarily out of left field. The guy is in a bind 'cause he's way behind and he's willing to make a deal. Unfortunately, while the battle for the White House rages over the next 12 months or so, American energy consumption habits are unlikely to change. So where to next? Let's talk angles…

TransCanada: How can the company overcome domestic politics to get this project done? How important is the project to the company's future? What does the company's growth strategy look like over the next 12 months in the absence of Keystone progress? What does the growth strategy look like without any Keystone at all? This is a terrific opportunity to get inside a company and see how it ticks.

TransCanada, the stock: Scotiabank says the stock still doesn't reflect the value of the Keystone XL project and reiterated its "outperform" rating. CIBC sees $2-$3 per share downside if the project is denied outright but thinks the pipeline will be approved eventually. CIBC rates the stock a "market perform." RBC is cutting its 2013 EPS estimate but still rates the stock "outperform." Let's make sure viewers get the full range of investment opinions from the Street.
Politics: a friend reminded me yesterday that policy doesn't matter to business until it does. Suddenly, policy matters. What are the next steps for Alberta's new premier? She's off to Washington with a burr under her saddle, but will it matter? What can Ottawa do? What should it do?
Alberta: What does the oil patch think of the decision? What does it do to the mood in Calgary? Edmonton? Fort Mac? Calgary Bureau Chief Brett Harris has the lead on this compelling story. Please keep him informed of any outstanding chases and new opinions.
Speaking of getting inside a company, Howard Green sits down at 1:00 with Michael McCain, CEO of Maple Leaf Foods, to talk about leadership during times of crisis and uncertainty. This is one that every manager and aspiring manager should tune in for.
We'll also sit down with the CFO of Canadian Tire, Marco Marrone, at 9:10 am Eastern. There are few companies with a better read on the Canadian consumer than this one. The company topped expectations with its earnings yesterday and raised its dividend. We'll find out whether that is a vote of confidence in the consumer.
Turning to Europe, well, you know the story. We continue to monitor developments and will report and progress and all the setbacks as they arise.
Today is also National Metal Day, by the way, and also marks Black Sabbath's first ever U.S. gig in 1970 at the Whisky A Go-Go in LA.

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