Sunday, June 24, 2018

From the Bullboard...



And from this post from Atheena wrote on Stockhouse: Hello again friends :-) 

I've already posted about what the near term catalysts are, but in the spirit of trying to get some of the group members to climb off the ledge of the mountain here goes...

The cannabis space is in its infancy.  I know there were chances to buy these companies at under a dollar and some for pennies but that was for people who were willing to accept more risk.  It was never certain that Cannabis would become legal on the REC side and so all the hype could have ended badly for those that invested early.  (However I think that the medical alone would have justified their early investment as anything bought under 100 million market cap was an obvious long term win)

Now we fast forward 18-24 months and we are set on OCT 17th for FULL LEGALIZATION.
Please let that sink in.  That means that a BRAND NEW market is being established.  If it were coffee/tea that was the product would that excite you?  We can all agree that the coffee/tea market is massive and people can make it at home and do...however many people LOVE to buy a freshly brewed cup of coffee/tea at their local spots like Starbucks/Timmies/McDonald's and various mom and pop shops and restaurants.  Regardless of how  much people brew at home, the market at 1-4 dollars a drink is crushing it, recording massive profits for those involved.  

So we have a new market that has 3-6 major players in it.  The rest are not major players and don't have the volume to compete globally.  The coffee/tea market has FAR more than 6 major players and they've been consolidating in that space for the last 30 years!!!  The Canadian market for coffee and tea was under 2 billion total last year.  Am I starting to create interest?  The cannabis market is going to be over 6 billion (by some reports 10 billion +).  No matter how it all shakes out a few things will be absolutely certain.  There will be consolidation (buyouts will continue) and larger companies in the PHARMA, ALCOHOL and TOBACCO space will NEED to gain entry.

How does this happen?  Well first thing is that in any business plan a large company is looking to gain market share immediately.  This is what Constellation Brands did by investing in Canopy Growth.  They wanted first mover advantage and made a VERY astute move by getting the largest company and securing their position.  This is FANTASTIC NEWS for AURORA  and APHRIA which are next in line for a HUGE investment which will solidify their position as it did for Canopy Growth (putting a price base in effect that is rock solid).

Now to evaluate the suitors.
In the Tobacco space we have:

Imperial tobacco 39 billion USD
Phillip Morris 27 billion USD
British Imperial 20 billion USD

In the Alcohol space we have:

Anheuser-Busch 46 billion USD
Heinekin 23 billion USD
Diageo 15 billion USD
Constellation Brands 7 billion USD
Molson-Coors 5 billion USD

In the Big Pharma space we have:

Johnson & Johnson 77 billion USD
Roche 57 billion USD
Pfizer 53 billion USD
Novartis 49 billion USD

These are just SOME of the players...each list could have had at least 5-10 more suitors that have 5-40 billion is sales.

Now let's look at what we know about APHRIA.  There are over 150 employees with ramp up we'll be at 400+.  All the facilities (and there are a lot of them!  Check them out online...look at the pictures!) are fully paid for and Aphria has hundreds of millions in the bank at the moment ready to be deployed.  Aphria is well capitalized and their corporate infrastruture is solid.  They have a very strong group of talented people in management and are constantly improving their depth.
APH has hired key members of DIAGEO, MOLSON-COORS and SOUTHERN GLAZER'S.  They are developing a corporate structure that will entice a large entity to either invest heavily as Constellation Brands did with Canopy OR attempt a buy out.  The beauty of this is that DIAGEO is more than double the size of Constellation!! 
That type of investment or interest could catapult APHRIA into a different league.  An interest from Molson Coors would in the same approximate scale as Constellation Brands but keep in mind that the MAJOR players are not in the picture as far as we can see now.  If a PHARMA or TOBACCO company joined the fray things would get very interesting immediately.  Remember that the ONLY 2 companies left with any real capacity for 2019 are AURORA and APHRIA.  
Aurora is hamstrung because they have WAY too many shares outstanding.  It will limit their valuation.

Well I hope that this info might help calm the nerves of some of the people that refuse or do not know how to read and do research on the internet.  Other than my accumen of being a business person for 27 years in senior management I don't have any skills that the average person doesn't also have at their disposal.  I know that my profession helps me see the big picture clearer than most people but the info that is on the internet can paint you the same picture if you use your common sense.  

The CANNABIS market is going to be huge.  IT is going to be profitable and it is going to garner the attention of many larger WHALES in the industry.  Stop wasting your time hating and trying to scare off inexperienced investors.  There is LIFE ALTERING money to made here still.  We are in the early stages.  Many people have already made millions between the under a dollar stage and now.  I suggest that some of you load up with RRSP's and TAX FREE savings accounts at these prices as we are in for a double in 18 months (with absolute certainty).  After that?  Who knows...it's too early to tell.  Just don't be overly greedy.  Buy in, don't sell if it goes below your entry...wait 6-18 months and set a price to cash out that is AT LEAST 50% higher than today.  Take my advice and you'll make a ton of easy money. 
I wish you all much success and happiness...don't invest more than you afford to lose (unlike me, who is 100% invested in APH...to the tune of a lot of money)


Good luck,

Atheena

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.aph/aphria-inc?postid=28219873#6dFSVhfJdbyK38Yh.99

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Whats Next For APH prediction we made May 23 ...best possible buyout by Weed- Only Time Will Tell

POSTED WEDNESDAY, MAY 23, 2018

Whats Next For APH?

Weed And APH? 

Both were held down today , but all other weed stocks rebounded into the green.

But NOT WEED AND APH (same approx share float i.e. 200 Million Shares each) Weed should buy APH and surpass ACB in markets.


Who Is Anonymous? 

"Of all the order sources, specialists and options market makers benefit the most from the strategic use of anonymity."

#1 House Anonymous: controls the price movement and create momentum up and down
both ways. Plus they are shorting all the way down as they sell, which creates sell momo which
triggers stop losses and then ANONYMOUS will suck up all the cheapest shares and then they start it back up ...rinse and repeat. When it gets high enough they sell them back to the market at a much higher price. They make millions everyday.

They accumulate shares as cheaply as they can then wait for some event like a WEED buyout or a Trump Bump . Anonymous will run the stocks up and down Stock Roller Coaster. MOMO.

If you really want to understand ANONYMOUS trading House #1 read below and click the link for a detailed .pdf report Anonymous Trading (AU)

http://treasurepicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/whats-next-for-aph.html

Friday, June 22, 2018

Molson + APHRIA Partnership or A Beer Giant Swallows Up Aphria?



Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP.N 2.09%) has been engaged in discussions with several Canadian-based cannabis companies to invest in them and collaborate on future cannabis-infused beverages in a move aimed at stemming the brewer’s declining beer sales, multiple sources familiar with the matter have told BNN Bloomberg.
The tie-up would see another major U.S. player enter the lucrative cannabis market ahead of Canada legalizing recreational cannabis on Oct. 17. Molson Coors has spent the past six months engaged with as many as four separate cannabis companies, including Aphria Inc. (APH.TO 2.75%) and Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB.TO 3.53%), discussing its plans to enter the marijuana space and the discussions are said to be serious, the sources said. A deal could be announced before the end of the year, one of the sources said.
The sources declined to speak on-the-record with BNN Bloomberg as discussions between the companies and brewer remained private. Colin Wheeler, a spokesman with Molson Coors, said in an email to BNN Bloomberg the company doesn’t comment on rumour or market speculation.
A deal with a marijuana producer would provide Molson Coors with access to a growing market pegged to be worth $6.5 billion by 2020, according to a report published last month by CIBC Capital Markets.
Furthermore, a report released by Cowan & Co. in April said cannabis and alcohol are substitute social lubricants. The report said that binge drinking behaviours – described as consuming at least seven drinks per sitting – accounts for 17 per cent of the U.S. population, but is set to fall as the legalization of recreational marijuana usage widens in North America.


“Our analysis found that adult-use cannabis states also have consumers that report meaningfully lower quantities of alcohol consumed per binge drinking session, relative to medical and non-cannabis states,” said Vivien Azer, a senior analyst covering beverage and tobacco companies at Cowen & Co., who authored the report.
In a report published earlier this month, Azer said Molson Coors’ management told analysts that the company has established a working group to evaluate the Canadian cannabis market, “which should prove helpful given [Molson Coors’] market share losses.” Molson Coors has a 33 per cent share of the Canadian beer market in 2017, down from 40.5 per cent in 2008, according to Cowen & Co.
While it wouldn’t be the first alcohol-related company to enter the cannabis space, with a market capitalization of US$14.7 billion Molson Coors would be the biggest.
Constellation Brands Inc. (CSU.TO 0.31%), the U.S. distributor for Corona beer, disrupted the cannabis industry by taking a 9.9 per cent stake in Canopy Growth Corp. (WEED.TO 6.66%) in October 2017 for $245 million. Constellation’s stake in Canopy, Canada’s largest cannabis company by market capitalization, is now roughly worth $877 million after the alcohol producer acquired one-third of a $600-million convertible note offering announced on Friday.
Meanwhile, Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits LLC announced a partnership with Aphria in May to give the cannabis company additional expertise in promoting its products to retailers and regulators across Canada.
“For the most part, if you’re the CEO of a beer company or a spirits company right now, it’s a terrible time, because in your shareholder meetings they’re saying, ‘What’s our cannabis strategy?’ And, for the most part, the big companies are saying, ‘Well, we have a group that’s making a strategy for a strategy,’” said Canopy Growth CEO Bruce Linton in a TV interview with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday.
One of the sources familiar with Molson Coors’ negotiations said the brewer is seeking “high quality product that isn’t going to embarrass them” and to ensure enough cannabis supply for a potential cannabis-infused beverage. One area of interest for the brewer is to find a cannabis company that can produce marijuana with a fast-infused reaction that can mimic the experience of drinking alcohol in a relatively quick time span, such as 15 to 20 minutes.
“It’s a disruptive industry and an opportunity for a lot of different companies,” said Mike Gorenstein, CEO of Cronos Group (CRON.TO) in a phone interview with BNN Bloomberg. He declined to comment on whether Cronos has engaged in discussions with Molson Coors but said “we do have conversations from time to time with companies we want to build relationships with.”
While two other sources said several other beer and spirit companies are exploring plans in the cannabis space, Molson Coors is a “natural fit” for the cannabis industry as the company has experienced declining sales in its home base of Colorado, where recreational marijuana has been legal since 2012, and Washington state.
“When they move into this sector, they’re going to be in there big. They’re not going to be dipping their toes,” one of the sources said.


Anonymous sell side today...profit taking


By the way ITG is also Pro Brokers...they serve mutual funds, institutional buyers , insiders,
So BOTH ITG and Anonymous are taking money off the table before the weekend.

Biggest Sellers 1st

House Positions for C:APH from 20180622 to 20180622
HouseBought$ValAveSold$ValAveNet$Net
39 Merrill Lynch689,5168,942,58812.969902,27111,663,27812.927-212,7552,720,690
9 BMO Nesbitt553,1667,197,94913.012754,5149,805,72712.996-201,3482,607,778
14 ITG7,04291,11412.939200,0002,612,05813.06-192,9582,520,944
65 Goldman24,400312,50912.808195,3002,540,65513.009-170,9002,228,146
53 Morgan Stanley98,9601,295,04713.087198,1262,520,42512.721-99,1661,225,378
90 Barclays098,4001,281,03213.019-98,4001,281,032
1 Anonymous3,085,64039,827,47012.9073,181,13541,185,85812.947-95,4951,358,388
33 Canaccord922,76311,828,23212.818998,69212,771,72112.788-75,929943,489
43 Caldwell070,000919,24113.132-70,000919,241
2 RBC1,157,24615,032,52112.991,170,13615,150,04012.947-12,890117,519
83 Mackie1,41518,15712.83211,000142,08012.916-9,585123,923
76 Industrial Alliance7229,48113.1329,920130,13813.119-9,198120,657
36 Latimer3,00738,98312.9649,272121,07513.058-6,26582,092
59 PI4,18554,24912.96310,000130,00013.00-5,81575,751
143 Pershing30,408396,51813.0434,393438,71912.756-3,98542,201
73 Cormark41,400526,72412.72341,400523,41312.6430-3,311
3 AltaCorp1,50018,52012.3471,50019,54513.0301,025
72 Credit Suisse4165,47313.1562803,69813.207136-1,775
25 Odlum1501,91512.7670150-1,915
101 SG Capital5006,57013.140500-6,570
57 Interactive9,207117,92212.8088,402109,17012.993805-8,752
68 Leede85010,64812.5270850-10,648
92 Pollitt1,00013,02013.0201,000-13,020
88 Credential14,434187,67213.00213,402175,52113.0971,032-12,151
70 Manulife1,95225,41713.02101,952-25,417
62 Haywood2,06326,68312.93402,063-26,683
79 CIBC3,197,22141,370,66512.943,192,70141,432,84212.9774,52062,177
15 UBS5,74875,28913.0981,02013,01312.7584,728-62,276
8 Eight10,000127,00012.705,00063,50012.705,000-63,500
56 Edward Jones5,94578,15213.1462923,73712.7985,653-74,415
99 Jitney171,1002,228,10913.022162,7002,123,36613.0518,400-104,743
19 Desjardins131,0221,714,88713.089121,1171,575,53013.0089,905-139,357
74 GMP13,000167,83912.9112,66334,62213.00110,337-133,217
13 Instinet343,6284,450,24412.951332,0654,312,95112.98811,563-137,293
28 BBS42,797565,37813.21123,070294,51512.76619,727-270,863
58 Qtrade98,6501,282,54513.00165,895860,96513.06632,755-421,580
80 National Bank185,9872,407,32612.944126,2631,637,50812.96959,724-769,818
22 Fidelity121,4271,581,84913.02749,902654,91013.12471,525-926,939
89 Raymond James270,6513,519,38513.003188,8822,425,16312.8481,769-1,094,222
87 Beacon100,0001,255,91012.5590100,000-1,255,910
124 Questrade673,3848,762,54813.013478,7626,213,44812.978194,622-2,549,100
7 TD Sec2,947,16938,311,51412.9992,694,10134,967,12312.979253,068-3,344,391
85 Scotia1,117,08714,530,94013.008734,1829,558,37513.019382,905-4,972,565
TOTAL16,086,758208,414,96212.95616,086,758208,414,96212.95600