Just two days left
The chase by Frances Horodelski:
On this day in 1916, the “Mad Monk” of Russia, known more familiarly as Rasputin was assassinated. It was a brutal murder and the story is that even when his body was found at the bottom of the River Neva, he had freed his tied feet and hands. If he hadn’t drowned, he would have come back one more time. According to Art Cashin “peasants believe Rasputin put a curse on Russia which caused the revolution in 1918 and may have caused some more recent problems”. That is for you to decide but have a glass of vodka to celebrate or mourn (but not wine nor cake which was laced with cyanide by the preacher’s assassins and was the first step in the murder) and be careful of those who invite you over for a late-night repast.
Here’s what you need to know about BNN’s chase today – there is very little happening. Oh, yes there is some economic data. We see Case-Shiller home prices for October (will it continue the slowing pace of increases that it has experienced since April) and consumer confidence in the U.S. for December. Home building stocks are almost back to their spring 2014 highs – could they continue higher in 2015? Russia’s services PMI came in above estimates at 45.8 vs 42.5 estimate and China’s leading index was slightly less than the previous month (tonight HSBC China’s manufacturing PMI index will be released). There is a poll from CIBC highlighting your top financial proprieties for 2015 (paying down debt, building savings, paying bills, budgeting, retirement planning). A small company that was hot when it was listed earlier in the year on its proposal to move to Canada and turn into a REIT, has collapsed (again) down 30% on a dividend suspension and provide company – a stock to watch Civeo. There is one IPO being priced today – Virginia Partners Bank and two analyst changes (BB&T cut to hold and QLogic rated a new buy). Gasoline drops below $2 in some states in the union and the price of oil is making fresh lows this morning dropping below the recent $54 support level traders have been watching. Italian bonds are hot as the country raises money at sub-2% levels. And in the “there is a bull market somewhere” story, rubber has rallied 20% since its October five year-low in Tokyo.
In other news, according to Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the seasonal trading patterns are favourable including the third year of the presidential cycle and of course, the years ending in a 5 argument which has seen the Dow gain every year since 1885 (with the exception of 2005), the S&P 500 every year since 1935 and the Nasdaq since 1975. We even have data on this point on the TSX which has climbed in every year ending in five since 1925 with 1945 being the best, 1965 the worst and 2005 +22%.
Interestingly, though, according to Art Cashin (who celebrates 50 years at the NYSE today), in all of 2014, the S&P has not experienced more than three consecutive down days – that has never happened before – ever apparently. On another point, 84% of the S&P 500 is trading above their 50 day moving averages – the peak is typically in the 84%-88% range.
I’ll keep it short today. The markets are lower around the world on oil and light trade. European markets uncertain about Greece and the U.S. digesting recent gains (another new high on the S&P 500 yesterday although the Dow broke its seven day rally). The Nasdaq is now within 5% of its all-time high set in March 2000 at 5048.62 (and up more than 4-fold versus 2002 lows). \Remember that the composite from 2000 isn’t the same composite that is today with a lot of companies gone, gone, gone.
On BNN today we have trends to disclose, gin to assess, juniors to value, a Home Depot vs. Lowes smackdown, fixed income opportunities and a discussion on the dollars (wither the loonie in 2015?). If you’re making your 2015 list and checking it twice, there is no better place for ideas.
And from John Magee’s The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends as quoted by Raymond James’ Jeff Saut this morning, my favourite resolution for next year “I will not be swayed or panicked by news flashes, rumours, tips or well-meant advice.”
Every morning Business Day Host Frances Horodelski writes a "chase note" to BNN's
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