Sometimes markets just go up
The chase by Frances Horodelski:
I've been looking at equity markets for a LONG time (indeed, calculating the number of years is a little frightening so I'm not actually going to share the number), but one thing I have learned (and I'm learning new things every day) is that sometimes markets just go up. Yesterday's action had many reasons including G20 economic growth forecasts (when was the last time traders moved on the G20), German business confidence, a solution in Ukraine, discounting the weather's impact and some believing the underlying trend is stronger than the recent data would suggest, the M&A frenzy (technology M&A is running at the fastest pace since 2000 and it received another deal with Triquint/RF Micro yesterday), the 9%+ growth rate for earnings for the Q4 better than expected (with more than 90% of the market weight of the S&P 500 having reported results), the list goes on.
But the best reason I think is this one as reported in the Wall Street Journal: "Traders said the move higher Monday was largely driven by short-term players buying around the January 15high water mark which the index had tested a number of times in recent weeks. Some traders had placed orders that would automatically be triggered when the S&P broke through that level. Trading volumes were relatively light." Hedge funds covering short bets also cited as a reason. Here's Art Cashin's description of the afternoon activity: "The S&P got its new highs and more - hitting nearly 1859 a few minutes past noon. The bulls stayed above 1855 until about 3:00, when the market on close indications shifted heavily to the sell side. (Thanks in no small part to the previously mentioned Verizon sellers.) In the final hour, the air came out of the balloon and the S&P slipped to close just below the 1848/1851 resistance band, done in by those pesky on-close orders, yet again." So there you have it.
More importantly, where do we go from here? The fact that the market cut in half its gains (and the S&P 500 closed below its January 15 high closing level) is an important thing to consider today. Is the underlying trend in the economy strong (and being masked by weather) or it the weakness in the weather actually masking the ability for economists and analysts to actually see what is a weakening trend? Only time will answer these questions.
Today it will be about housing on the one hand with earnings from Home Depot (beat and 21% increase in its dividend - stock higher this morning), Toll Bros (beat but full year range of expectations for home deliveries saw the high end lowered), Case-Shiller price data at 9 am ET(although this is an old, December, number) and Canadian banks on the other (National Bank reported last night with core earnings of $1.09 versus consensus of $1.05 and BMO's report this morning coming in well ahead of estimate at $1.61 versus $1.53).
Other considerations today include Element Financial executives buying shares (all 8 members of the senior management team purchased $5 million worth of stock); there is another focus on Verizon this morning (today is from Scotia suggesting a buying opportunity, Barclays upgraded the stock yesterday).
For China watchers, another important Congress is coming. China's 12th National People's Congress commences its 2nd annual session on March 5, 2014 which is expected to unveil further reform details following last yea's Third Plenum. Barclays' analysts believe the government will maintain its 7.5% growth target but with a commitment from the government on SOE (state owned enterprise) reforms and fiscal issues. Barclays also believes the market will trade positively near term as a result.
Other items to watch include John Chen saying in Barcelona that he would consider a sale or spin-off of BBM (BBRY gets a lift on the news); Tim Horton and JP Morgan investor days; almond shortages in India (Bloomberg reports); Petronas selling natural gas assets in Canada to Indian buyers; Zuckerberg says WhatsApp worth more than $19 billion US; Sony looking to bring out Mall Cop 2 (what?); Macy's beats on the bottom line although same store sales for the Q4 came in light. Scotiabank has a report out on Verizon this am noting their work says the stock is the cheapest on a free-cash flow basis of all the North American telecoms. VZ's share price could continue under some pressure as Vodafone shareholders sell their recently received VZ shares - but this is a stock to put on the radar.
And finally, Gary Doer joins Howard Green on Headline tonight and today. Mr. Doer is quoted in the press today talking about a topic dear to my own heart - that the looming water war with the U.S. will be much worse than Keystone. "Gary Doer predicted that water diplomacy would make the debate about pipelines "look silly'."
As always, lots of news and too much to digest in half an hour - pick your spots. I'm seeing some of the big industrial metal stocks weaker overseas - this is an area I want to do lots of homework on. Teck Resources discloses today that it is using cash at these metal prices and no special dividend is likely. Join us at 10:30 am ET when I will speak to one of my favourite technical analysts (he of the "rip your face off" natural gas trade). He'll focus on what to buy right now - there is always something. As an aside, he's out of natural gas right now.
Bye-bye
Every morning Business Day Host Frances Horodelski writes a "chase note"
Posts
