Wednesday, April 18, 2012

TD Target For Bankers $9.00

TD's action list has been like a reverse barometer lately. It has underperformed the s&p 500 more than 50% ytd.TD's comments:Investment ConclusionBankers Petroleum’s announcement that its first exploration well in Albania was unsuccessful is at leastslightly negative. We are reducing our target to C$9.00 (from C$10.00) due to a decision to reduce ourvaluation of the company’s potential to develop contingent heavy oil resources with thermal stimulation.

The10% reduction in target definitely overstates the impact of this particular update, but we are forced torecognize that a gradual trickle of updates with minor negatives is frustrating investors and driving share priceweakness to levels we had previously not thought possible. However, mainly due to continued share priceweakness over recent weeks, our reduced target still implies a 136% potential return to target, based uponwhich we maintain our ACTION LIST BUY rating.

Bankers is trading at the lowest multiple of Base NAVPS in our coverage of International E&Ps (68% discountto the average for other producers in the group). The company’s assets and management should continue theirlong-term trend of value-creating reserve additions in the coming years, with a strong balance sheet and cashflows supported by relatively high Brent oil prices and improving differentials.

As a result, (given the size andgrowth potential of its core asset) the company should be viewed as a take-out target if equity markets do notvalue it closer to its Base NAVPS. Returning to production growth (the company is targeting a 30% increase inaverage production levels in 2012) is likely the key potential catalyst for Bankers to regain investor confidenceand positive share price momentum. We believe that a return to significant production growth is likely to occurin the current quarter, Q2/12.

Globe says Toriola trims Bankers Petroleum target to $5 Bankers Petroleum Ltd (2) (C:BNK) Shares Issued 250,736,320Last Close 4/16/2012 $3.71Tuesday April 17 2012 - In the NewsThe Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, April 17, edition that UBS Securities analyst George Toriola continues to rate Bankers Petroleum ($3.71) "buy." The Globe's Darcy Keith writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Toriola downgraded his target price on Bankers Petroleum share by $2 to $5. Mr. Toriola notes that Bankers Petroleum reported disappointing results at its Ardenica exploration well on block "F" in Albania, with no hydrocarbons being found. The analyst says that while the company expects to drill another exploration well on the same block in the fourth quarter, there is now "greater risk" associated with the company's thermal steam project in the country. The Globe reported on July 20, 2011, that Bankers Petroleum was a top holding of Sentry Select manager Laura Lau. The shares were then worth $6.06. The Eye column reported on March 22, 2012, that Mr. Toriola rated Bankers Petroleum "buy." He targeted the stock at $7. The shares were then trading at $4.31. In the same item, Dundee Securities analyst Alex Klein downgraded Bankers Petroleum to "neutral, high risk" from "buy" and trimmed his price target by $1.10 to $7.60. The stock has a 52-week range of $2.95 to $8.78.

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