Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Marty Cej writes a "chase note

"With immediate effect, [the Swiss National Bank] will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities."

- Tough-talking Swiss National Bank telling you how it's gonna be, just in case you weren't payin' attention.

When things get tough, I mean really tough, send for the Central Bankers. Overnight, the central bank of Switzerland said no, nein, non and basta to currency traders who thought they could push the Swiss currency to new record highs. Yesterday, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet told European leaders to create a Brussels-based euro-zone finance minister to help get the region in order, or bring it to heel, depending on your point of view. On the last day of August, the central bank of Brazil cut interest rates in a surprise move intended to insulate the export-driven economy from a global slowdown.

Goldman Sachs argues today that while QE3 is almost a certainty for the Fed, it is unlikely to work and therefore the U.S. central bank should consider more drastic measures, including a promise to anchor interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to 7 percent. In Ottawa, meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's Mark Carney is foiling-up the knuckles to take on global economic weakness in tomorrow's policy decision.

Our top story today is to examine the efforts by global central bankers to protect, revive or resuscitate their economies amid increasingly fragile financial and economic conditions. We'll frame their actions with the concomitant efforts of politicians to spark growth, create jobs, cut deficits and hang on to their own jobs.

Countries such as Greece and Italy seem to be losing their appetite for austerity, which wasn't exactly hearty to begin with, and the Finns are demanding some sort of collateral if they are going to put up dough to help bailout their weakest euro-siblings. World Bank President Robert Zoellick tells Bloomberg News this morning that risks to the global economy are intensifying and the euro-zone's outlook is dependent on European leaders making the right decisions, as if that hasn't always been the case.

U.S. President Obama has a big speech on jobs Thursday night, too, which may have a lot to say about the U.S. housing market. Watch the homebuilder stocks and Canadian forestry companies.
Our examination of the global economy, interest rates and markets will feature a conversation today with John Taylor, the Stanford University professor who developed the "Taylor rule" – a monetary-policy tenet that stipulates just how much a central bank should change interest rates in response to changes in inflation and other conditions. Beginning at 1:00, we'll find out what he thinks the Fed and other central banks should be doing right now and compare it with what they are doing.

Between 11 and 11:30, it's all about the Bank of Canada, Canadian interest rates and what Canadians should be doing with their money. Last week's report showing a contraction in the Canadian economy in the second quarter revealed two key persistent headwinds: the strong loonie and the weak U.S. economy. Whether rates are cut later this fall or not, neither of those headwinds is likely to disappear anytime soon.

Research In Motion was raised to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' at Scotia Capital this morning amid speculation that the rollout of seven new devices and "legal issues plaguing Android" will mean "RIM is positioned for a strong Q3 and Q4."

A few minutes after that note arrived, activist shareholders Jaguar Financial called on RIM to maximize shareholder value by pursuing "all options including a potential sale of the company or a monetization of the RIM patent portfolio by a spin-out to RIM shareholders." Business Day AM has calls into Jaguar and we are seeking comment from RIM as well.
The Carlyle Group has filed for an IPO. Let's talk about what they are bringing to the market and the timing.

Every morning Managing Editor Marty Cej writes a "chase note" to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Never miss an edition of The Chase.

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