Saturday, March 14, 2009

Memo of the week: Bear market bounce

The beginning of the end? Could it be? Sorry, shareholders. No. When the Dow Jones industrial average rose for four consecutive days, world-weary investors pounced optimistically on the rare good news. But their joy at the prospect of a market rally was ephemeral – after analyst after analyst told them this "bear market bounce" would be too. U.S. financial companies, which led the unexpected reprieve, remain dubious to desperate, and economic fundamentals remain poor; the rally, as it were, appeared to be triggered by a "leaked" memo from the chief executive of Citigroup in which he claimed the company made a profit in the first two months of 2009. Not the most solid of foundations on which to base overwhelming confidence. "Before investors truly commit to bank stocks," the Associated Press wrote, "they want official results, not just chief executives' letters to their staff."

– Daniel Dale

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