Tuesday, May 13, 2014

High returns while taking minimal risk is a pipe dream

High returns while taking minimal risk is a pipe dream; if asset growth is your priority, taking risk is crucial.
Likewise, three quarters of investors told Natixis they only own investments they understand well, which makes sense until you hear that just one-quarter of all investors surveyed felt their overall investment knowledge was particularly strong.
If they’re not relying on investment knowledge, investors are playing the market the way most people bet at the track or in the casino, by playing hunches. Nearly 80 percent of investors surveyed by Natixis said they simply follow their gut instinct.
That’s not financial planning.

By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch 
Investing is about trade-offs; you simply can’t have it all.
So if you need to make 10 percent above inflation to meet your future needs, but you are only willing to assume minimal investment risk in an attempt to generate those gains, something has got to give.
That give and take — the push and pull of emotions — is inevitable, but a study released today by Natixis Global Asset Management suggests that investors aren’t particularly accepting of those compromises, and instead are living in a world of unrealistic expectations and conflicting sentiments, leaving them hoping impractically that events will work out their way because they see no other route to success.
Meanwhile, their behaviors reduce the chance that they get the best possible outcome, often because their actions are based on “gut instinct,” which is a good way to develop trust in the moves you are making, but not necessarily the best way to decide which financial steps to take.
If you are a mutual fund investor trying to figure out how to reach your goals, examining the Natixis study and seeing how the investment public makes moves that feel benign but wind up dangerous could be a wake-up call. If the average investor’s behavior is incongruous, but you see the same characteristics in yourself, it’s time for a change.
Let’s dig into the survey.
 

Friday, May 9, 2014

Francis says...The clock strikes 13

The chase by Frances Horodelski:

Has the clock struck 13 and are there Eastern Promises? That is where we start today, stealing from two market pundits who are much more eloquent than me.
First, has the clock struck 13. This refers to all things insane which could refer to markets generally - but specifically for me to the intra-dayreversals that we have seen of late. You just think you're going down the right highway - and whack the hairpin turn in the road makes your head spin. Abroadening top? Or a "knock, knock, knocking" on heaven's door before the big run to even bigger highs? Even bullish sentiment indicators are insane withthe Investors Intelligence bulls at a worrisome 55.8% level while the American Association of Individual Investors are at sub-30% levels. Crazy.
Second, Eastern Promises can refer to Mario Draghi who has promised more than he has given and the market still slathers at his words. Arate cut seems more than promise from his words yesterday but the promise of bond buying remains out there (although legal and other hurdles need to besurpassed first). Or another eastern promise (further east of course) is Mr. Putin's promise to be conciliatory but troops don't back downand the referendum goes ahead. Be careful out there.
But let's head back to the news. Economically, we had Chinese inflation numbers coming in well below expectations (it used to be theChinese were worried about runaway inflation - today's number came in sub-2%, a developed market level). The street is focused on the low levels of ironore as delivered into China which is at the lowest level since September 2013 and down 23% in the past year. A negative signal for global growth? Manufacturing in the UKhowever showing strength. The big story for us is Canada's jobs number. The estimate was quite healthy given thebig leap in jobs we saw in March – but it didn’t turn out that way as the economy actually shed 28,900 jobs according to Statistics Canada.

http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/05/9/The-clock-strikes-13.aspx

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