SuperBowl Finally Lives Up To Its Name

The Toes On The Ground Prior To Being Pushed Out Of Bounds= Touchdown!

Following the greatest Super Bowl in history, we offer the generally anticlimactic Monday morning musings and meditations on the world of sports:

- In a word, omigod. The morning after, it's still hard to put Sunday's showdown in Tampa in perspective.

I mean, James Harrison makes maybe the greatest individual play in Super Bowl history. And by the end of the game, it was almost forgotten. The Arizona Cardinals were dead and buried twice. They were this close to authoring one of the great comebacks in the annals of "The Big Game." Then the Pittsburgh Steelers came off the canvas and delivered the knockout blow.
It was like the 14th round of the "Thrilla in Manilla" played out over four hours with a Bruce Springsteen concert thrown in and it really was that good.
Then again, it wasn't like the NFL didn't owe us one of these.
- The tendency is to look at the Steelers and compare them to the NHL's New Jersey Devils. They play a system. They plug interchangeable parts into that system. The system keeps rolling along.

That's true to a point. But it also diminished the sheer genius of the Steelers organization. Following their win over the Cardinals -- which had more than a few nervous moments -- their defence will be rated among the best in NFL history. That unit features just one first-round draft pick in safety Troy Polamalu. Linebacker Harrison is also the first undrafted player to be named the NFL's defensive player of the year.

Think about that one for a moment.

I mean, it seems the Steelers have had the same team since Bill Cowher took over in '92. Greg Lloyd and Kevin Greene gave way to Joey Porter, who gave way to Harrison and Lamarr Woodley. Rod Woodson gave way to Polamalu.

And the quarterbacks. The Steelers went to the Super Bowl with Neil O'Donnell. They went to the playoffs with Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox. Since '92, they've recorded at least 10 wins in 11 of the 17 seasons and they had precisely two losing years in that time.

Add it up and it's one thing to make those changes and stay competitive. But the Steelers have made those changes and stayed on top for the better part of two decades in the NFL's salary-cap era.

That's impressive.

- As much as the drama over coach Alain Vigneault's future has been the hot-button issue in this marketplace for the last two weeks, the more important story for the Vancouver Canucks will take place in and around the trade deadline.

At that point, GM Mike Gillis has to decide if this team is worth keeping together or if he has to blow it up and start all over. And there's no safe play here. It's either/or because Gillis can't risk losing the Sedins and/or Mattias Ohlund on the unrestricted market this summer.
Put it this way. As bad as things are now, can you imagine the nightmare the organization would face if a team -- say the Toronto Maple Leafs with their new GM Brian Burke -- signed the twins on July 1.

It's a very difficult decision, as tough as any in the history of the franchise. But the potential take for those three players could be massive and this opportunity isn't going to repeat itself any time soon for the Canucks.

If Gillis believes he can win with the Sedins and Ohlund now and in the future, he has to sign them before they become UFAs. If he believes the team has to go in a different direction, he has to move them.

Either way, we're about to find something out about the Canucks' first-year GM.
- And then there's the world in which the Detroit Red Wings live.

While much has been made about Henrik Zetterberg's staggering 12-year, $73-million US contract, the cap hit for the Wings works out to $6 million per season.
That, in turn, might allow them to sign pending UFAs Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen this summer.

"Yeah. it's possible," GM Ken Holland said. "If both [Hossa and Franzen] want to stay, and if the cap goes up a little, there's an outside chance. It'll still be tough, but if other players are as motivated to make it work as Henrik was, there's a chance."

Complicating things are reports that the NHL salary cap might fall as much as 20 per cent in two years. That will leave it in the $45-million range and even the Wings might have trouble making that work.

- Interesting scene at GM Place on Saturday morning where six players showed up for the Canucks' optional morning skate before the game with Minnesota.
Five of those players were healthy scratches that night. The sixth was Roberto Luongo, who put in a full practice.

- Sign of the times: Remember when a Colorado Avalanche home game used to be among the toughest tickets in the NHL?

The Avs haven't been above 16,000 in their last 10 games at Pepsi Center.
- Colin Campbell has the perfect opportunity to send a message about head shots with Los Angeles's Denis Gauthier. The hit on Montreal's Josh Gorges, where Gauthier left his feet to deliver an elbow, is exactly the kind of hit the NHL has to eradicate.

Gauthier is also a repeat offender. This suspension has to hit double digits.
- Heard this one at the gym the other day:

Guy walks into a bar with his dog and says to the bartender: "The cable's out at my place and the dog and I always watch Canucks games together. Can we watch it here?"
Bartender says: "OK, but you'll have to go to the end of the bar."
Game starts. Canucks score. Dog jumps up, races the length of the bar, does a back flip in front of the bartender and gives him a high five.

Bartender says: "That's amazing. What does he do if the Canucks win."
Guy says: "I don't know. I've only had him three years."

OK, it isn't the greatest joke in the world. But the point is people are now making jokes about the Canucks and that's dangerous.

When buy and hold is no option

February 01, 2009
ELLEN ROSEMAN

"Buy and hold for the long term" is a formula, a mantra, a way of thinking embraced by the mainstream investment industry.

In my last column (Jan. 18) in this series, I talked about why the buy and hold strategy has become so popular with investment advisers.

Advisers are reluctant to make guesses about where the stock market is going. They aren't trained to be prognosticators.

Clients miss out on gains if advisers suggest getting out of stocks too early. Clients also miss out on gains if advisers suggest staying in cash after stocks rebound.

Market timing can be costly. Clients pay commissions, deferred sales charges on mutual funds and capital gains taxes (outside a registered plan) to sell stocks and buy them back later.
Clients who hold only cash and guaranteed investments may feel they don't need an adviser. They can manage such a portfolio on their own.

So, what are the alternatives to buy and hold?

You can look for an investment adviser that uses strategies that allow you to make money when stock markets go down.

For example, you can buy put options on specific stocks or stock market indexes (such as the TSX/S&P composite index).

You can also buy the "bear plus" exchange-traded funds, which allow making leveraged bets against stock indexes or sectors such as gold, oil, financials or grains.

"A lot of people use our products hoping they lose money," says Howard Atkinson, president of BetaPro Management, which offers 28 bull and bear funds.

"They're long on the market, but they sleep better knowing they don't have the same downside."

Sixty per cent of buyers are institutions, such as mutual fund and hedge fund managers, 25 per cent are investment advisers and 15 per cent are do-it-yourself investors.

Investment advisers who use them tend to be discretionary portfolio managers. They're authorized to trade without consulting clients in advance. This is important because bear plus ETFs must be watched carefully. They're not a buy and hold product.

"Our average hold period is quite short," Atkinson adds. "It's four days." You can also get your investment portfolio analyzed by an independent firm that doesn't sell investments.

Second Opinion Investor Services, based in Toronto, charges about $2,000 to analyze portfolios. It also helps people find an appropriate investment adviser for their needs.

"Buy and hold is a platitude that is outdated," says Mike Macdonald, an investment portfolio consultant with the firm.

"Everything and everybody needs to be monitored regularly because it is often an investor's life savings and future lifestyle that is at risk.

"Buy and hold is like an airplane's autopilot. It works great when everything is going smoothly.

"Then, birds fly into an airplane's engine and the real value of a live pilot is apparent.

"Unfortunately for investors, most advisers were on autopilot and there was no heroic landing."

The buy and hold mantra is a fairly recent development, says Warren MacKenzie, who started Second Opinion. You didn't hear about the wisdom of sticking with stocks during the long bear market that lasted from 1968 until 1982.

"And picture the poor Japanese investor who retired in 1989 when the Nikkei index was at about 40,000," he says.

"After 20 years, this buy and hold investor has seen his portfolio decline by about 75 per cent, before taking inflation into account."

Next week, we'll look at how to know if your portfolio is too risky and how to file a complaint.