APHRIA INC. (APHA): INSIDERS SMELL A BARGAIN?

November 14 2018

Aphria Inc. (APHA) hit an intraday high Tuesday at $11.46. The shares finished at $10.3, after trading as low as $10.24 earlier in the session. It dropped -8.69% in recent trade and currently has a stock-market value of $2.39B. Trading activity significantly improved as the volume at ready counter increased to 3,191,223 shares versus 2,790,285 in average daily trading volume over the past 20 days. So far this year, the volume has averaged about 1,402,368 shares. The stock is now 65.33% above against its bear-market low of $6.23 on November 16, 2017. It has retreated -92.91% since it’s 52-week high of $19.87 reached in January. Now the market price is up 43.25% on the year and down -30.17% YTD.

APHA’s 50 day simple moving average (SMA 50) price is $13.64 and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA 200) price is $10.54. The company’s stock currently has a total float of 214.71M shares. Its weekly volatility is hovering around 9.1% and felt 13.51% volatility in price over a month. On the upside, the share price will test short term resistance at around $11.09. On a downside, the stock is likely to find some support, which begins at $9.87. The failure to get near-term support could push it to $9.45.

Wall Street’s most bullish Aphria Inc. (NYSE:APHA) analysts are predicting the share price to blow past $33 per share during the next 12 months. The current median share price forecast by them is $25.75, suggesting that the stock could increase 150% in that time frame. The average price target of $25.69 calls for a nearly 149.42% increase in the stock price.

When looking at valuations, Aphria Inc. (APHA) has a pricey P/E of 76.3x as compared to industry average of 28x. Also, it is trading at rather expensive levels at just over 2.47x price/book and 86.25x price/sales.

APHA last reported earnings on October 12, 2018 when it released Aug-18 results that exceeded expectations. The company raked in $0.06 per share, -100.03% change on the same period last year. That was better than consensus for -$0.06. Revenue for the recent quarter stood at $13.29 million, up 117% on last year and below the $14 million predicted by analysts. For this quarter, Wall Street analysts forecast revenue in a range of $10.4 million to $12 million, which should be compared with $0 generated last year.

Money Managers Are Loading Up On Aphria Inc. (APHA)

Aphria Inc. (NYSE:APHA) enjoyed a 53.07% run-up in share price since hitting record low of $6.23. The stock managed -7.38% fall and now stands at $9.54 as of 11/14/2018. At recent session, the prices were hovering between $9.26 and $10.24. This company shares are -100% up from its target price of $0 and the current market capitalization stands at $2.22B. The recent change has given its price a -30.08% deficit over SMA 50 and -51.99% deficit over its 52-week high. The stock witnessed -33.89% declines, 21.07% gains and 2.84% gains for the 1-month, 3-month and 6-month period, respectively. To measure price-variation, we found APHA’s volatility during a week at 9.22% and during a month it has been found around 13.35%.

Aphria Inc. (APHA) Top Holders

Institutional investors currently hold around $4 million or 0% in APHA stock. Look at its top three institutional owners. Hellman Jordan Management Co Inc /Ma/ owns $3.25 million in Aphria Inc., which represents roughly 0.15% of the company’s market cap and approximately 81.13% of the institutional ownership. Similar statistics are true for the second largest owner, Mcgowan Group Asset Management, Inc., which owns 24,888 shares of the stock are valued at $256 thousand. The third largest holder is Highpoint Advisor Group Llc, which currently holds $130 thousand worth of this stock and that ownership represents nearly 0.01% of its market capitalization.

Aphria Inc. 13F Filings

At the end of June reporting period, 6 institutional holders increased their position in Aphria Inc. (NYSE:APHA) by some 31,746 shares, 3 decreased positions by 548 and 4 held positions by 327,135. That puts total institutional holdings at 359,429 shares, according to SEC filings. The stock grabbed 4 new institutional investments totaling 16,496 shares while 1 institutional investors sold out their entire positions totaling 300 shares.

Aphria Inc. (APHA) Analyst Guide

Several analysts have released their opinion on Aphria Inc. (NYSE:APHA), with 4 analysts believing it is a strong buy. Whereas 0 of them predict the stock is a hold. Also, there are 3 buy, 0 sell and 0 strong sell ratings, collectively assigning a 1.43 average brokerage recommendation.