Beaten down Weston, Loblaw cheap at the moment

Beaten down Weston, Loblaw cheap at the moment


Dianne Maley
Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The Source:

Paul Gardner, partner and portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management Inc.

The Idea:

Buy shares of George Weston Ltd.

Given how much stocks and bonds have rallied from their recent lows – 40 per cent to 50 per cent in some cases – good buys are difficult to find, Mr. Gardner says.

“You have to hope the economy comes out of recession because that's what the markets are pricing in.”

An ideal investment candidate would be a company with a strong balance sheet, trading at an attractive price that has the ability to grow. “That's where Weston comes in,” he says. At just shy of $57 a share and yielding 2.6 per cent, “It's a value trade,” he says. Weston shares traded in the $80 range as recently as 2007.


Weston's main asset is the grocery retailer, Loblaw Cos. Ltd., which accounts for about $44 of Weston's $57 share price, he estimates. Weston has $10 a share in cash, largely from the sale of its U.S. bakery business. Add about $2 a share for the real estate under Loblaws stores and, “You're getting what's left, the bakery business in Canada, for next to nothing.” That business earned $1.50 of Weston's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) last year.

Loblaw, at about $33, is also looking cheap, Mr. Gardner figures. After subtracting the value of the company's real estate, which accounts for about $25 of a Loblaw share, “in a way you're getting Loblaw for next to nothing” too, he says. Loblaw shares have been held back over the past few years because of management and supply chain problems, issues Mr. Gardner thinks have been largely resolved. This year, the shares have been lifted along with the market but are still well below their historic highs.

“They've worked on the supply chain and warehousing problems, renovated stores and initiated real change on the operational side,” he notes. The company's second quarter earnings “surprised on the upside,” although it warned of a difficult second half.

Loblaw is also expanding into the ethnic food market, announcing the purchase of T&T Supermarket, with 17 stores, in July. (Loblaw also owns Zehrs, Fortinos and Real Canadian Superstores.) T&T's big takeout Chinese food business “gives them some higher margins.”

The Payoff:

A potential double-digit capital gain in a relatively short time if the economy recovers, price cutting abates and Loblaw and George Weston shares come to be looked on more favourably by the market, Mr. Gardner says. What would a more “normal valuation” for Weston be?

“I don't like to put a number on it, but you could see a 30-per-cent return over the next year and a half.”

The Big Risk:

Fierce price cutting among grocery retailers squeezes profits more than expected at Loblaw as the economy struggles, leading to a long stretch of disappointing earnings and depressing the share price of both Loblaw and its parent, Weston.

Why Listen to Paul Gardner?

Mr. Gardner has more than 20 years' experience in the investment business, much of it on the fixed-income side. Avenue Investment Management is an independent investment counsellor and portfolio manager for individuals with $500,000 or more to invest.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

TSX may rise with commodity prices, eyes CIBC

CANADA STOCKS-TSX may rise with commodity prices, eyes CIBC


08:12 EDT Wednesday, August 26, 2009

TORONTO, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Toronto's main stock index may rise at the open on Wednesday, bolstered by higher commodity prices, while investors will also digest quarterly results from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce .

The S&P/TSX composite index <.GSPTSE> finished Tuesday's session 1.21 percent higher at 10,920.53, boosted by financials as Bank of Montreal reported solid results.

Quarterly results from the country's big banks this week remain the key focus for market direction. Financials are the most heavily-weighted group on the TSX, about a third of the weighting.

Here is some of the news that may affect the market.

CIBC

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the country's fifth-largest bank, reported a higher quarterly profit, mainly on strong performance of its core retail and wholesale banking businesses and lower expenses. [ID:nN24133906]

ELDORADO GOLD

Eldorado Gold Corp said it will buy Sino Gold Mining for C$2.0 billion, in an all-share transaction to give it greater exposure to China's growing gold industry. The offer was worth A$7.24 per Sino Gold share, a premium of 21.3 percent, based on the companies' closing share prices on Tuesday. [ID:nSYD472825]

COMMODITIES

Gold rose towards $950 an ounce as the dollar weakened against the euro, boosting interest in the precious metal as an alternative asset. [ID:nLQ723905] Oil prices recovered early losses but remained below the 10-month high hit in the previous session. [ID:nSP475982]

CAE

Flight simulator maker and aviation training company CAE Inc said it received a series of military contracts valued at more than C$100 million. Key customers included Eurocopter, Airbus Military and L-3 Communications Holdings Inc , the company said. [ID:nBNG489391]

RESEARCH ROUNDUP:

Following is a summary of research actions on Canadian companies reported by Reuters on Wednesday. For more, please double click [RCH/CA]

* Genuity raises Bank of Montreal price target

* RBC raises Alimentation Couche Tard price target

($1=$1.09 Canadian)

(Reporting by Ka Yan Ng, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)