AN INTERVIEW WITH BOB HOYE AND D. PESCOD
We are here today with Bob Hoye, who writes “Pivotal
Events” and he is one of those guys that had actually pre-
dicted what we’ve gone through for much of the last year.
And was it ugly! Now things seem to be going back to a
little bit of normality, and Bob is still not all that comfort-
able looking forward.
future down the road is gold. First of all, how good do
you see it? Secondly, how long?
Bob Hoye: The thing about gold is that it is backwards to
what the gold bugs think. They get this idea that if the
U.S. dollar is going to go to zero, the price of gold will go
to $10,000. The gold miners will make so much money it
will make your head spin. The thing that they are missing
out is that for the last 20 years or so, every time the dollar
has been hit hard, commodities outperform gold on the
way up. If you have commodities such as crude oil out-
performing gold on the way up, then the cost of mining
gold is going up. So the ideal condition for your basic
gold bug is backwards.
what happens and study previous post-bubble contrac-
tions and the evidence is reliable over 300 years. On
every bubble, the real price of gold declines and gold min-
ing underperforms the market because everybody is in
love with base metals, stocks and high-tech stocks.
rything else as stocks, corporate bonds and commodities
head down.
mining business. This is where we are now.
With the belated boom our gold divided by commodity
index declined to 143 in May of 2007 and it was that May
and June that we were also expecting the credit market to
reverse eventually to a disaster.
since that spring is the real price of gold went up, and the
credit markets went down and commodities went down.
which case things could get rather good until around mid-












