Stochastic Prediction Check Out The Chart

Where do I start. Lots of major resistance on route to 13.15. Similarly, Lots of major supports sub 12.44 close. So where's the stock going to go? I want to mention first and foremost, I'm not god people! I get more right than i get wrong and that makes me a winner. I too, want to help those out, so we can all bask in the glory! Today, the stock closed nearing the day high, always a good sign for tomorrows open, expect a smaller but positive gap up. We have major supports (I'll just mention the two closest to 12.44 ps) 12.36/12.38. 

Similarly, we have major resistance at 12.45 / 12.50 ps. An open, above 12.50 ps would be what we want. Because, the next major resistance is 12.65 / 12.92. I want to stress, a move above 12.92 ps will likely bring us one step closer to 13.15, as resistance past this point is meager in nature. A move above 13.15 at any point in the day, would indicate a HUGE buying opportunity and price swing to 15$ ps. Again, there's a lot of resistance on route to 13.15. 

Simply, put, if investor sentiment is bullish in nature OR an announcement is made from Aphria 3.78%that has substance, there's not doubt in my mind, we will hit 15$ ps within the next two weeks. On too the charts. ALMOST everything looks fantastic! CRSI is positive but a short term pull back is likely ( BULLISH IN NATURE) higher highs and higher lows. RI -1.20% is in extreme bullish territory, stoch RSI is oh so very close to moving into extreme bullish territory, OBV - Volume needs to sustain above averages to sustain bull run, 

NOW THIS ONE IS MY FAVORITE! MACD cross likely to happen tomorrow, (thought it would of happened today! I was wrong) A MACD cross would help to propel this stock to 15$. TSX Supports positive momentum, new highs reached (higher highs/Higher lows) this will allow for continued positive momentum. Simply put, 

NOTHING IS GOING TO SLOW THIS STOCK DOWN, OTHER THAN ANOTHER BOUGHT DEAL OR INSIDER SELLING. BOTH ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BASED ON PRICE POINT! SO, LIKE ALWAYS ENJOY THE RIDE TO 15$. TOMORROW WILL BE INTERESTING!( Thursday June 21 2018)

Indicators show - 18 EXT. Bullishness/20 Bull / 11 Neutral / 5 Bearish . / 0 EXT. Bearishness. 

Green day tomorrow. I've stopped giving price estimates, too many people are upset over my ranges (I'm sorry, I can't predict investor sentiment, its an unknown) 

If you care to think, what I believe tomorrows close will be, My guess is 12.92 ps or 13.42$ ps



Lookin' Good People - Decent Close - Expect a Gap up! by isnarain on TradingView.com

Aphria Worldwide Distribution NOT just Canada

As Canada comes close to legalizing recreational marijuana, cannabis stocks have witnessed a sudden surge in their valuation. Despite the vast upside opportunity for pot stocks, the opening up of the recreational marijuana market may be faced with regulatory hardships, just like the tobacco industry. 

However, the investors seem to be positive about these stocks, hoping these stocks replicate the growth trajectory of tobacco stocks, such as Philip Morris and Altria. This trend has been witnessed lately with Aphria Inc., (TSX:APH), a low cost of producer of medicinal marijuana in Canada, gaining momentum over the last one month.

In our previous analysis – Here’s Why We Believe That Medical Marijuana Stock Aphria Is Undervalued – we had talked about how we think that Aphria is undervalued compared to its peers based on a Price/Sales multiple basis. In this note, we aim to discuss the key driver that will drive its value going forward. You can view our valuation for the company on our interactive dashboard and create scenarios to suit your assumptions.

Trefis

International Expansion Will Drive Top Line Growth

Australia

As more and more companies are legalizing the medical use of marijuana, Aphria has aggressively entered into partnerships and joint ventures to supply its output to these international markets in the last couple of months. For instance, the Canadian company completed its first shipment of medical cannabis to its Australia-based partner Althea in late April of this year. The initial shipment, which is the first of the four shipments due in the next 12 months, included a mix of cannabis oil products and dried flower, which will be distributed to pharmacies for eligible medical cannabis patients in Australia. Australia serves to be a strategic market for Aphria and its branded cannabis products, and is expected to bolster its sales in the coming months.

Africa

Apart from Australia, Aphria also has plans to capture the South African market, since it has a vast potential for growth in the long term. Consequently, the company entered into a joint venture with South African company Verve Group of Companies to form a new entity known as CannInvest Africa Ltd. The newly formed entity will acquire an interest in Verve Dynamics (Verve), which is a licensed producer of medical cannabis extracts in Lesotho, for a sum of CAD 4.05 million. With Verve Group’s resources and Aphria’s expertise and low cost of production, Verve will be able to supply high-grade low-cost cannabis isolates throughout the African continent and to markets across the globe using Aphria’s international distribution network. Wider reach in newer markets will boost Verve’s revenue and, in turn, complement Aphria’s valuation.

www.forbes.com

Pot Legal Oct 17 2018

Globe says Aphria, rivals hear pot legal on Oct. 17

Aphria Inc (C:APH) 

Shares Issued 210,125,411

Last Close 6/20/2018 $12.44

The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, June 21, edition that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is delaying the legalizing of pot until Oct. 17 to give the provinces more time to prepare. The Globe's Laura Stone writes that Mr. Trudeau said provinces asked for more time to prepare their retail cannabis outlets, on-line mail-delivery systems and production regimes before marijuana can be legalized in Canada. 

Ottawa had initially aimed to open up the market for legal cannabis within 12 weeks of the adoption of Bill C-45, which the Senate passed on Tuesday, but the new target date gives the provinces and producers 17 weeks to get ready. 

The PM said: "This is something that we want to get right. It is our expectation that ... by giving the provinces more time to ensure that they are fully ready for the day of coming into force of this legislation, it will be a smooth success in all the ways that we can hope for." Mr. Trudeau also said it would be "illogical" to launch any process to pardon those with criminal records for possession of cannabis while the act remains a criminal offence.

 He said, "Once the law comes into force, we will start looking at the issue of pardons and criminal records."

© 2018 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

NP says Aurora, rival hear many pot questions remain

Thursday June 21 2018 - In the News

Also Aphria Inc (C:APH) In the News

The National Post reports in its Thursday, June 21, edition that after 95 years, Canada's prohibition on recreational cannabis will come to an end on Wednesday, Oct. 17. The Post's Brian Platt writes that how many storefront retailers will actually open for business that day is just one of the many questions that remain. 

Over the next four months it will be largely up to the provinces and territories to produce the answers. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the date in the House of Commons Wednesday, the day after the Cannabis Act passed its final vote in parliament. While the government had previously estimated eight to 12 weeks would be needed between passage of the bill and legalization, Mr. Trudeau said that timeline was too aggressive. 

"We heard from provinces and territories who told us they needed more time to transition to this new framework," he said. 

As well as the Cannabis Act, Parliament passed the accompanying impaired-driving bill, legislation against harassment in the workplace, the national security bill and omnibus transportation legislation that includes new consumer protections for air travellers. The government has now achieved about a third of its campaign commitments.

© 2018 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

NP says Aphria, rivals hear legal pot is a promise kept

Aphria Inc (C:APH)
Shares Issued 210,125,411
Last Close 6/20/2018 $12.44
Thursday June 21 2018 - In the News

The National Post reports in its Thursday, June 21, edition that promise made, promise kept is not something this government has been able to say very often. The Post's John Ivison writes that the passage of the pot-legalization bill before the summer recess was crucial for Prime Miniser Justin Trudeau, who during his 959 days in power has garnered a reputation as a promise-breaker. After reneging on the pledge to usher in electoral reform and blowing through the commitment to rack up "modest" deficits, this was a big one -- and it needed to be fulfilled, if anyone was to going to believe anything the PM said in advance of the 2019 election. The summer hiatus provides a convenient demarcation between the first three years in power, which were all about trying to live up to the sprawling campaign platform, and the final one, which will look ahead to the coming vote. "It is our hope ... there will be a smooth operation of retail cannabis outlets operated by the provinces, with an on-line mail-delivery system operated by the provinces, that will ensure that this happens in an orderly fashion." There are an assortment of models in place as provinces prepare for the legal sale of cannabis.

© 2018 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

Aphria A Best Pick From Greg Taylor, portfolio manager at Purpose Investments Inc.

The growing menu of cannabis stocks may be enticing for investors seeking to profit from the green gold rush, but betting on winners is not easy.

Cannabis companies have been in the spotlight during the run-up to the legalization of recreational pot in Canada. With the passage of Bill C-45 in the Senate, the sale of marijuana now has the green light, although it will be fall before consumers can buy cannabis products.

Risks for investors still abound in this young industry. There is uncertainty as to whether producers can meet delivery targets, or whether there could be a cannabis glut. It is unclear whether restrictions on cannabis advertising will make it difficult for the legal product to compete against the black market.

And it hasn’t been determined how much dilution shareholders face because of bought-deal financings, whereby the underwriting syndicate buys the entire stock offering and resells the shares to their clients.

Given the potential landmines among pot plays, we asked three cannabis-focused fund managers for some of their top picks.

Greg Taylor, portfolio manager at Purpose Investments Inc., Toronto

Fund: Purpose Marijuana Opportunities Fund with ETF series (MJJ-NEO)

The pick: Aphria Inc. (APH-TSX)

52-week range: $5.14 to $24.75 a share

Shares of the Leamington, Ont.-based medical cannabis producer, which are off sharply from their January peak, are compelling on a relative-value basis, says Mr. Taerk.

Aphria’s recent acquisition of Nuuvera Corp. was controversial because of cross-ownership, but it is helping global expansion, he says. Aphria, a low-cost producer, now has access to more than 13,000 pharmacies in Germany. The firm, whose current production capacity is second only to Canopy Growth Corp., has also posted 10 consecutive quarters of positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), he notes. It has a strong management team led by Vic Neufeld, formerly CEO of Jamieson Laboratories Ltd., he adds.

Aphria is building a $55-million extraction facility for cannabis concentrates to be used in everything from edibles to infused beverages, and has also partnered with Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits for product distribution, he adds.

The pick: Hydropothecary Corp. (THCX-X)

52-week range: $1.10 to $5.42 a share

The Gatineau, Que.-based medical cannabis producer is “one of the leaders in the space, but seems to be getting overlooked,” says Mr. Taylor. “Its stock trades at a discount to its peers, and about half of the valuation of Canopy Growth Corp.”

In April, Hydropothecary signed a five-year deal with Société des alcools du Québec to supply more than 200,000 kilograms of cannabis products for recreational use, thus becoming Quebec’s preferred supplier. The firm, which has a strong management team, is expanding its greenhouse capacity, investing in extraction technologies, and plans to grow globally, he says. “They are working on research and development projects for extraction into oils and infusion into beverages.”

Hydropothecary, whose cost of production is less than $1 per gram, also benefits from cheaper power in Quebec. The firm is an unlikely takeover candidate but could partner with a major beverage or drug-industry player, he adds.

The pick: CannTrust Holdings Inc. (TRST-TSX)

52-week range: $5.86 to $10.58 a share

The Vaughan, Ont.-based cannabis producer is well-positioned as a play on medical marijuana that could “explode in demand,” Mr. Taylor suggests. It sells higher-margin cannabis oils and has introduced innovations, such as vegan-based capsules.

CannTrust has credibility in its niche because it was founded and is controlled by former pharmacists, and has partnered with Apotex Inc., Canada’s largest generic drug maker, which exports to more than 115 countries, he adds. But CannTrust, which has indoor-grow and greenhouse facilities, also plans to expand into recreational cannabis and is developing pet products, too, he says. “They are thinking out of the box.”

The firm, which has reported three consecutive quarters of profit, recently raised $100-million from a bought-deal to meet its growth needs. CannTrust, whose stock trades at a big discount to peers such as Canopy Growth Corp., could be a takeover target for a pharmaceutical giant, he says.

Charles Taerk, president of Faircourt Asset Management Inc., Toronto

Fund: Ninepoint UIT Alternative Health Fund

The pick: Organigram Holdings Inc. (OGI-X)

52-week range: $2.04 to $5.93 a share

Organigram is one of the top five Canadian licensed medical marijuana producers in terms of current production capacity, but its stock trades at a significant discount to its bigger peers, says Mr. Taerk.

Based in Moncton, N.B., it doesn’t have the profile of Ontario players but benefits from lower power rates and cheaper land costs, he adds. Organigram lost its organic certification in 2016 after some batches tested for pesticides, but new management led by chief executive officer Greg Engel “has turned the ship around,” he says. The company will be getting its certification back, but only a small part of its business will be organic, Mr. Taerk notes.

Organigram’s cost-per-gram averaged $1.22 during the latest quarter, which is low for an indoor grower, he says. Organigram, which is doing a “nice job of creating a brand strategy” for recreational cannabis, is also a potential takeover target or could merge with other regional players, he adds.

Bruce Campbell, president of StoneCastle Investment Management Inc., Kelowna, B.C.

Funds: Cannabis Growth Opportunity Corp. (CGOC-CN) and StoneCastle Cannabis Growth Fund

The pick: Valens GroWorks Corp. (VGW-CN)

52-week range: 75 cents to $3.50 a share.

Toronto-base Valens, which aims to be a vertically integrated cannabis products provider, is attractive as a multi-licensed company with various revenue streams, says Mr. Campbell. “But their big business is going to end up being in extraction.”

The company, whose production facilities are in Kelowna, B.C., holds a dealer’s licence to produce and sell its higher-margin cannabis oils, and has an agreement with Canopy Growth Corp. to distribute its products through its CraftGrow program. Valens has applied for a cultivation licence, but also signed a deal recently with Speakeasy Cannabis Club Ltd., which will also supply it with cannabis. Valens, which has a licence to offer cannabis-testing services, has teamed up with U.S. scientific instruments maker Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. to do so.

Valens could be a takeover target for players wanting extraction expertise or could even merge with smaller firms to build a regional powerhouse, he says.

The pick: Friday Night Inc. (TGIF-CN)

52-week range: 17 cents to $1.40 a share

This Chilliwack, B.C.-based company, which is involved in growing and distributing medical and recreational marijuana in the United States, operates three distinct business lines, says Mr. Campbell. Its business is focused on Nevada, a medical-marijuana state that legalized recreational cannabis in 2016. Friday Night is a potential takeover target for a player that wants a foothold in that state, or it could be an acquirer, too, he says.

Alternative Medicine Association, its licensed producer, is building a new cultivation facility in Las Vegas to expand capacity, and recently bought an adjacent building for cannabis extraction. Its Infused MFG unit produces cannabidiol (CBD)-infused products ranging from pet products to lip balms and cream.

And its Spire Secure Logistics unit, which gets a recurring revenue stream from selling security services to the cannabis industry, will see demand grow as the industry matures, he predicts.

Source The Globe