Oil - Canada- TSX And 2016 Predictions

That’s the truth at the heart of the collapse in oil prices in 2015, a force that will shape our personal finances in the coming year. In the GTA, it’s good news. The commute is cheaper and so is the cost of heating our homes. It adds up to a tax cut as good as the one the Liberals are giving us.

In the west, where 40,000 industry-related jobs have disappeared, more pain is on the way because the energy rout may only be midstream. Even if it isn’t, more jobs will likely go. Until the price of oil stabilizes, the only thing companies can do is guess and keep cutting to ensure their costs remain below their falling revenues.

It’s hard to recall that 18 months ago, oil was at $110 (U.S.) a barrel. It traded Monday at a little under $37, two-thirds lower. The current price per barrel is enough to buy 24 bottles of Sleeman’s Original Draft at the Beer Store — but not the cans, which cost a few dollars more. If you think about that in terms of your household, how would you fare if your family income was cut by 67 per cent?

This is all about a fight for control of the world’s oil market, dominated by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Saudi Arabia is the lead. As China’s insatiable demand for energy drove up prices, a search for cheaper supplies made sense. New technologies made it easy to drill into shale formations and fracture the rock to release oil, creating a plentiful supply of energy in North America.

A sign of the times is that this month the U.S. lifted a 40-year ban on the export of domestically produced oil.

That is because fracking is making the U.S. virtually energy self-sufficient, just as China’s economy is slowing — and so is its need for oil. In the meantime, Iran is adding two million barrels to world markets as part of its nuclear deal.

The Saudis, seeing a long-term threat to their oil power, have ensured that OPEC continues to produce at the same pace to maintain market share. The Saudi goal is to drive the higher-cost fracking industry under. Our even more expensive oilsands are caught in the crossfire.

OPEC shows no signs of standing down. It reaffirmed its strategy at a December meeting, and last week its World Oil Outlook forecast that a barrel of oil would only cost (in real terms) around $70 by 2020.

So here’s what it means for us: The dollar

In June 2014, with $110 oil, the loonie sat at 92 cents (U.S.). It cost us $1.09 for an American dollar. On Monday, it was at 72 cents, a drop of 22 per cent. It was $1.40 to $1 at the consumer level.

If oil rebounds, so will the dollar; if not, it may fall further which is something readers care a lot about. How to get a better U. S. exchange rate deal was the most popular column of the year. Canadian stocks

Toronto share prices are down 9.8 per cent year to date. Energy stocks make up about 10 per cent of the TSX and have fared much worse. The TSX Energy Index is down 26 per cent.

If oil prices improve, these shares will too. Ditto for our banks, which are big lenders to the oilpatch and are another big part of the main TSX composite index. They’ve had a lousy year too, down 5 per cent. Inflation

We climbed out of our 61-centdollar hole in 2000, gradually getting to par in 2009 without much inflation. Our exports to the U.S. were cheaper and so more attractive, creating profits and jobs. By substituting Mexican avocados for California ones, we energized our economy without higher prices. Cross your fingers we can do that again. Interest rates

If we can’t and inflation starts picking up, rates may rise even though the Bank of Canada doesn’t want them to. If so, housing will cool, consumer spending will fall and we’ll all have a harder time.

There are a lot of ifs, ands and maybes here and, as always, beware of forecasts. In June, when I wrote about the dollar, the consensus was that it would be between 77 and 80 cents now. Between now and this time next year, anything can happen. Adam Mayers writes about investing and personal finance on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Sell-offs always set the stage for recovery,

although it’s hard to think good times won’t return

Human nature tends to work against us when the stock markets turn.

Now is one of those times, particularly for readers who have turned to stocks reluctantly as the only way to stay ahead of inflation. As share prices have moved wildly and largely lower this year, concern has mounted. Some think they should sell now, which may be the worst time to do it.

Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, and the news offered another example of a day of lurches. North American stocks sank before the announcement, then soared once the hike was official. Both Toronto and New York ended the day with triple-digit gains.

The last two trading days aside, it’s been a lousy year for investors. The main index on the Toronto Stock Exchange is down 10.7 per cent on the year as of Wednesday’s close, largely because of the commodity and energy rout, which hurts many areas of our economy. The Dow Jones has fared better, but is still down a little less than half of 1 per cent.

Toronto reader P.N. has had a small portfolio of stocks for 30 years. She wanted a higher return without too much more risk, so her adviser put her into a portfolio of dividend stocks.

She doesn’t need the quarterly dividends for day-to-day living, so instead of cash she opted for a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), which adds the equivalent of the dividends as shares. But as the face value of her holdings has fallen, she wonders whether it’s smarter to take the money.

“With the erosion of the stock market, I admit to feeling some anxiety,” she wrote. “I feel I should stop the DRIP method and receive the dividends in cash.”

After some to and fro, P.N. has decided to stand pat, reasoning that her DRIPs buy more shares as the stock price falls. And given the high quality of her holdings, the companies she owns will fall least and rebound first. They will also pay dividends along the way, so there’s no reason to sell.

Her thinking is similar to Brampton reader S.W., who has watched his portfolio shrink almost 10 per cent in the last few months, losing $107,000 on paper, he says.

His holdings are also top-quality. They include large real estate investment trusts and preferred shares of Canada’s banks. All pay monthly or quarterly dividends. S.W. wanted to know whether he should hang on. He uses the dividend income to live on, but does not need to touch his seven-figure capital. He has also decided there’s nothing to be gained by selling and believes his holdings will rebound.

Diversification and investment quality are the keys to long-run investment success and if you have both you’ll come out ahead. But we live in the short run, where emotions are always at play.

Bernard Baruch, a Wall St. financier and adviser to five U.S. presidents, once noted that emotions constantly set traps for our reasoning powers. We tend to react to the urgency of today’s news and lose sight of our goals. Here are a few things to keep in mind: Stocks can seem risk-free for long periods, but they aren’t. When they fall, it can be a rude shock for those who are in the markets as a last resort. If you need to preserve capital, you shouldn’t be there. If you can accept some risk, high-quality funds and shares offer a higher return.

Market sell-offs always set the stage for recovery, although as Baruch observed, it’s human nature during bad times to think the good times will never return.

On Black Monday in October 1987, U.S. shares fell 22 per cent in one day. They recovered all of that in a few months. Crashes in 2000 and 2008 were all followed by big rebounds.

Lower share prices mean a higher dividend yield. For example, shares of TransCanada Corp. tumbled following the U.S. rejection of its Keystone pipeline. A year ago, the shares were worth $52.83 with a dividend yield of 3.6 per cent. The shares closed at $48.30 Wednesday with the dividend yielding 4.3 per cent. On top of that, TransCanada raised its dividend this year, a sign of confidence in its outlook.

This is not to say that sell-offs don’t hurt. It’s just that if can look beyond them you often find that better things lie ahead. Adam Mayers writes about investing and personal finance

USA Interest Rate Bump Up - Helps Canada

Confident American consumers, low-flying loonie could bring prosperity north of the border when Fed raises benchmark rate

Never has so much attention been paid by so many to something so small.

With apologies to Winston Churchill and his Battle of Britain speech, the greatest American economic experiment in the post-Second World War period will probably end Wednesday.

It’s been a battle of another sort, as the U.S. Federal Reserve ends its zero-interest policy, letting a key rate rise by as much as a quarter of a point. It would be the first increase there in almost a decade.

The increase isn’t much; more important is that it signals a swing toward normal conditions. And it is actually good news for Canadians.

The Fed pushed rates down sharply in 2008 to stave off a financial collapse, creating trillions of dollars out of thin air. That did the trick, encouraging consumers to borrow and spend. It brought U.S. housing back from the brink and has pumped up stock prices.

It’s no accident that a decision to raise rates is being made nine days before Christmas, when the financial world is winding down for the two-week holiday period. Nobody is quite sure how this will play out; stock markets have been behaving erratically at the thought. A rate hike may mean more lurches, or the bump may already be factored into prices. Nobody knows. So all the better to make a move when attention is focused elsewhere.

With the U.S. still our biggest trading partner, here is how their decision could bring energy here: Energizer No. 1: Confident Americans The move signals that the U.S. economy is humming after seven lean years. Consumers account for the bulk of American economic activity, and they are back in a big way. Their economy is creating jobs and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5 per cent, which is considered full employment. Wages are rising and wallets are open.

These forces usually create inflation, and policy-makers want to act sooner rather than later to stop it from building.

Our economy tags along. Demand rises for everything we sell to the U.S., from energy and resources to manufactured products. One sign of the good times this year is car sales. They’ll set a record in the U.S., exceeding a high set 15 years ago in 2000, according to Automotive News. Many of the cars Americans drive are made in Ontario: Oshawa, Brampton, Cambridge, Woodstock or Alliston.

Autos are just one sign of the times. Scotiabank economist Aron Gampel said in a recent briefing that Canadian exports have increased at a 9-per-cent annualized rate since February. Expect more momentum in 2016. Energizer No. 2: A 70-cent dollar Our dollar ranks among the worstperforming major currencies against the greenback in the past year. Canada and Australia have seen their currencies fall by about 25 per cent and 30 per cent respectively against the U.S. currency. Both of those countries are huge exporters of energy and minerals.

This week’s 72.5-cent (U.S.) level for the loonie is an 11 1⁄ 2- year low. That may seem awful, but more may be in store, CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld says. In an interview with the Star last week, he said, “I think a 70-cent Canadian dollar is now in sight.”

That’s bad news for those heading to Florida or the Caribbean, where things are priced in U.S. funds. Mexico may be a better deal this year.

But a weaker dollar is more fuel for our economy. This is especially true in industries that are exchange-rate sensitive. Beyond cars, this includes industrial machinery, electronics, aircraft and consumer goods. Energizer No. 3: Low inflation If these changes can come without inflation, as during the days of the 66-cent dollar in 2000, that’s a third boost. Meanwhile, the slide we’re seeing in energy prices helps us — it’s effectively a tax cut, making it cheaper to heat, drive and manufacture. Inflation held steady at 1 per cent in October and our central bank has made it clear things aren’t going up any time soon in Canada.

The one inflationary worry is that rock-bottom interest rates are fuelling an unhealthy housing market in the GTA and Vancouver. Mindful of that, federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau on Friday tightened the minimum downpayment for high-end homes from 5 per cent to 10 per cent.

If the Fed raises its rate, it will be a small move with a big implication. For us, long-term gains may well outweigh short-term pain.  

http://torontostar.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/pageview.aspx?issue=10382015121500000000001001 

Will the Fed stick to its rate-hike strategy?

The chase by Frances Horodelski:

What were you doing June 29, 2006, the last time the Fed hiked rates (to 5.2%)? That was the last hike after a series of 17 hikes over two years that moved the rate from 1% to 5.25%. That stair step of increases was followed by a water fall of cuts beginning in September 2007 and ending with ZIRP on December 16, 2008. With great symmetry, seven years to the day, Janet Yellen and the Fed is widely expected to put ZIRP to bed this Wednesday , Dec. 16, 2015.
Last week ended badly, so is it time for some good market news? We’re starting the week with bad news if you’re an oil trader. The price of oil dropped below $35 as the U.S. dollar is strong, the momentum from last week continues and all the concerns with supply continue (Iraq, Libyan peace agreement, etc). According to CFTC data, the commercial shorts are at the lowest level since the Spring while speculative longs are at the lowest levels since January 2013. But the catalyst for a reversal is hard to see (there is no risk premium and remains driven by supply). Natural gas is trading at the lowest level since 2001 (when the low was $1.83, right now the commodity is $1.88) – a reversal here is also hard to see.
Weather remains unusually warm and even when it does get cold later in the week in the North East and in Canada, it couldn’t be called frigid. These are tough times. And another sign of these times is Encana which has “reset” its annual dividend from seven cents/share to six cents/year. Reset is euphemism for slash I guess.
Meanwhile, the world continues to reel from high yield collapse including last week’s closure of Third Avenue’s fund (which was very high yield) and another this morning (Lucidus) which was triggered by a significant investor wanting out in October forcing the fund to wind down. One measure of credit risk (junk yields versus the 10-year) is stressed having risen 437 basis points since June (from 2.21% to 6.585 spread) but still well below five year highs at 8.33% and crisis high of 20.55%.
Last week’s CNN fear/greed index has moved to the highest fear level in a month at 24 – but the index can go to zero. But fear is [palpable. According to one pundit, when the market falls by more than 1.5% on a Friday, 86 out of 90 times, the market is down on the following Monday. Right now, markets are showing green but weakening as I type.
Meanwhile, news continues – especially in the record setting M&A space. Another big deal on the table as Newell Rubbermaid and Jarden merger in a cash and stock deal. Each JAH shareholder will receive $21 cash plus 0.862 NWL. The combination will be a bit of a branded powerhouse with Jarden bringing things like Sunbeam, Coleman, Rawlings, Yankee Candle, Bicycle playing cards and the list goes on. M&A activity so far this year is running at a record $5.5 trillion globally (announced deals). Interesting item on the DowDuPont merger from last week. According to Barron’s, DuPont paid US$500 million to investment bankers on its spin-out of Chemours. Some more suspicious than me suggested that the big chemical merger was more to line the coffers of the bankers than for strategic or shareholders reasons!
Speaking of Barron’s, the 2016 outlook from strategists look for an average year from stocks in 2016 (2200 on the S&P 500). Stocks that were profiled positively include Macy’s, XL Group, Disney. Also a note that the correlation between stocks has risen to 71%-- the highest since 2012. What does that mean? The macro backdrop is more important than the micro and stocks are moving together. So your stock-picking prowess is less important. There is an old adage on Wall Street that suggests just when you need it most, that is when markets fall, diversification helps you the least. We’re in one of the moments. They do end – but I have found that this “tough” time happens when a transition of some magnitude is unfolding just beneath the surface.
We’ll talk transitions with Scotia’s chief strategists this morning and what his 10 themes are for 2016. MKM Partners chief derivatives strategist also uses the term transition in his daily missive. Pivot and transition – watch for these words in the strategy pieces for 2016.
From street research this morning – RBC getting more conservative on Valeant (by reducing the target to $194 from $206 U.S.); Scotia says now is the time to buy Paramount Resources (with a $15 target), BMO upgrades Mattel to outperform from hold ($33 target); Barclays introduced its global stock picks last week that included four names that are Canadian – Suncor, CNQ, Vermillion and Goldcorp (these have been the same Canadian names for some time) and Scotia introduces its 2016 featured stocks list that run from Aecon through to WPT Industrials with 41 names between. Barclays also initiates on two recent IPOs Square and Match Group with outperform.
Stick with BNN as we stick-handle these markets with guests. The futures are now in negative territory and European markets are also lower across the way. From Art Cashin at UBS: “Crude is bothering markets but it's the high yield thing that has the most market risk. Friday's Option Expiration is rumored to be enormous, which could make this a very volatile week. Stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.”
So there you have it.