Monday, December 22, 2014

5 investments to stay away from in 2015 and beyond

Advising investors not to buy mutual funds, as we recently did rather publicly, is a surefire way to raise some people’s dander. Of course, most of the offended parties are in the business of selling or managing funds.
We stand by that rule though: Why would you want to buy something with high fees that continually underperforms?
Along the same lines of “what not to buy,” here are five other investment products you can do without next year, if not your whole investing career.
New closed-end funds
Every week, it seems, there is a new closed-end fund offering, giving investors the chance to participate in whatever is “hot” that week. These funds are designed to sell, and by that we don’t mean they are typically good products.
Nope, these funds are designed to pay high upfront commissions to move them out the door. Advisors love them as they typically pay between 3% and 5% to the seller. Roll in startup, legal and investment banking costs, and you hit the ground running with a net asset value of $9.30 per unit or so on a $10 IPO issue.
Under the cruel way math works, you now need a 7.5% return just to get your money back. Some of these funds are okay, really. But let another investor pay the upfront costs. Don’t be the sucker.
Market-linked GICs
Who wouldn’t want a guarantee on their principal and a market-based return? These GICs always sound great in their advertising, but some of the advertising can be misleading.
Some show total returns, not annualized returns like everyone else in the industry. Most have liquidation clauses, so if the market drops a certain amount, everything moves to cash and you get no return at all. These selling clauses force the exact opposite of what should be done when the market drops a lot.
But the worst thing are the high fees attached to products that are really no better than what investors could accomplish on their own, with far more upside potential to boot.
Very small ETFs
Most investors do not realize that, unlike a mutual fund, an exchange-traded fund does not need a unit holder vote if the manager wants to shut it down completely.
Investors get their net asset value back in this case, but a small ETF often trades in illiquid securities, so their realized amount may be much less than the stated net asset value once liquidation occurs.
Stay away from any ETF with less than $30-million in assets.
Leveraged ETFs
Do you want to double, or triple, your bet on oil, the market, gold or other assets? There is a whole range of ETFs are specifically designed to go up (or down) two (or three) times their underlying asset base or index.
If you’re right in your prediction, some ETFs can go up 10% or more in a day. But if you’re wrong, you lose just as fast.
What’s more, the derivative resets that these ETFs use cause your net asset value to decline fast even when you are right. Meanwhile, fees (typically near 1%) continually eat away at asset value as well.
These are gambles, not investments.
Companies with a market cap of less than $10 million
If you think mutual fund fees are bad, consider the fate of very small companies. It is estimated that the annual cost of being a public company is about $400,000. Just being listed can cost a $10 million company 4% of its market value every year.
Most companies of that size have little in sales, profits and cash. Thus, microcaps typically need to raise money on a regular basis just to stay listed.
The result: continual share dilution.
Consider TVI Pacific Inc. (TVI/TSX): It is larger at a $16 million market cap, but its share count has jumped to 655 million from 182 million in 2002. Its shares have bounced around from 1¢ per share to 36.5¢ in that time, and are currently 2.5¢.
Peter Hodson, CFA, is CEO of 5i Research Inc

Friday, December 19, 2014

Quadruple Witching Day...

Today is quadruple witching and may be one of the reasons we saw the huge lift in stocks yesterday as position squaring tends to happen the day before. Yesterday’s gain in the S&P 500, the best since 2011, brought the market to within 0.57% of its closing high (just two weeks ago by the way). According to S&P Capital IQ, this is the first time since August 2002 that the S&P 500 has risen 2% in two days in a row. Yesterday’s more modest gain brought the index up almost 5% in 3 trading days and the energy sector higher by 11% in the same period. Three days doesn’t make a trend and has just ameliorated the considerable oversold condition in both indices although not yet overbought.
Today’s chase list includes all things BlackBerry as the company reports its third quarter results and Amber Kanwar sits down with John Chen for an update on his strategy post this week’s introduction of the Classic. The numbers showed a continued decline in revenue (with a 15% miss versus expectations at $793 million) although BlackBerry did squeak out a one cent profit (versus the loss estimate of a nickel) and positive cash flow. The Canadian dollar will be a focus as some stabilization in the FX markets globally hasn’t stopped the bearish forecasts from continuing to come out on our currency (RBC highlights is bearish view again in a weekly report with a $1.18/$0.8475 target for year-end 2015. We’ll also be watching Nike after the company posted strong quarterly results of 74 cents versus 70 cents estimated and 21% revenue growth in China. McDonalds too is a stock to watch after its three day gain of 5.79% following rumours that Bill Ackman might have an interesting (and a 40,000 January 95 call purchase). We’ll also be following up with analysts on the announcement yesterday fromIndustry Minister Moore on the upcoming spectrum auctions, the intention to have 60% of the new spectrum (with 25% overall) allocated to new entrants and the impact on the incumbents (which were generally lower yesterday). Speaking of Ministers, John Baird, Foreign Affairs Minister, will have a major announcement today. Finally, if you’re interested in Canadian housing (and who isn’t), the new CEO of the Royal Bank of Canada, in a Bloomberg interview, talks about the potential for a drop of up to 15% drop in house prices should interest rates rise (although that would be good for the Canadian economy).
In the pre-market we’re watching names like Immunogen (down 39% on failed breast cancer drug) and Finish Line (down 7% on surprising Q3 loss). On the other hand, Red Hat is up 11% on what Citi calls a “flawless” quarter”. Also, we’ll be watching the markets as strategists generally looking for a 2015 up year for the S&P 500 with the highest target 2340 (from Canaccord), the median 2200 while the lowest target is 2100 (from Barclays and Goldman Sachs).
We a number of special presentations on BNN today including one of my favourites “Bottom Feeding” that looks at opportunities in a series of beaten up stocks as well as Story of the Year. Both can be found live or on BNN.ca.
For those following jobless claims as an economic indicator should note this comment from RBC: “The thing to keep in mind is that claims will probably become a much less valuable indicator of the jobs backdrop over the next couple of weeks. Though the numbers are indeed seasonally adjusted, the looming spike in volatility in the weeks ahead (as the retail holiday hiring cycle unwinds) could make for some messy reads up until early Feb.”
I often quote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in this daily note. Today, he has distributed his 2014 movie reviews including his favourites of 2014 including Ida (a Polish movie set in the 1960s), Whiplash (about a young drummer) and St. Vincent (Bill Murray’s latest).
Got to run – just awaiting Canadian CPI and retail sales data – could have an impact on the Canadian dollar.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Unrest and oil

Unrest and oil
The chase by Greg Bonnell:

Unrest. That’s what’s been missing from the oil story in recent weeks. We’ve been focused squarely on OPEC refusing to cut production as North American producers pump it out as fast as they can. Today, unrest re-enters the narrative – labour strife and armed conflict. That means we have conflicting drivers influencing the trade. Libya is halting output from some oilfields amid armed clashes. In Nigeria, oil workers are on strike as they push for reforms. Meanwhile, OPEC is still talking tough, apparently willing to tolerate prices as low as $40. Mix it all together and WTI is still below $58 a barrel, but it’s fluctuating in a narrow range between gains and losses.
North American futures are pointing to a solid open in the green as heavy hitters like Exxon Mobil and Chevron make gains in the pre-market. We’ll be watching the Canadian energy names carefully at the open. U.S. futures, however, did weaken a touch as the Empire manufacturing survey for December fell unexpectedly.
In Corporate News, we have a report out of Spain that Repsol’s board is meeting today to approve a bid for Talisman. TLM’s shares are up 16% in the New York pre-market. Talisman confirms, again this morning, that it’s in talks with Repsol, but also others.
With so much happening in the Energy space, BNN’s Jameson Berkow takes to the streets of Calgary to take the pulse of Canada’s energy capital. He’ll have live reports throughout the day.
And watch out for Gold. The yellow metal is under selling pressure ahead of the Fed. Bets appear to be mounting that Yellen and Co. are getting closer to raising rates after repeated vows to keep borrowing costs low for a “considerable time.” And it’s those two words that are in the spotlight ahead of Wednesday’s Fed statement. Will they be dropped from Fed speak, thus signaling a hawkish stance on rates? And what does that have to do with Gold? It’s widely accepted, but always debatable, that as rates rise you can expect to see non-income paying Gold fall.
With the precious metal down almost $12 this morning we could see some pressure on mining stocks in Toronto.
At the place where politics and stimulus meet – Japanese voters have re-elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democrats. While that can be read as a vote in support of Abenomics, bear in mind it was a record-lower voter turnout.
Finance Minister Joe Oliver is singing the same tune on the housing market – no bubble, no crash, no dramatic moves to rein in the mortgage market, soft landing. I mention his reprise only in the context of the Bank of Canada saying our homes may be overvalued by up to 30%. That’s why Mr. Oliver is facing questions yet again about what Ottawa plans to do.
One more piece of corporate news before I run off. PetSmart has agreed to a buyout by a consortium that includes the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec. The deal is worth $8.3 billion, and I sincerely hope we have some footage of cute puppies to play as we tell this story.
p.s. Fear not dear note readers, my mentor and most excellent BNN newsroom desk neighbour Frances Horodelski returns this Wednesday.

Tax Free Saving Account auditing by the Canada Revenue Agency

Here's what will get your TFSA audited by the Canada Revenue Agency

The Canada Revenue Agency has an audit project targeting Canadians it feels are in the business of trading securities and using their tax free savings accounts to shelter the proceeds. Canadians with too many wins in their TFSA are being targetted by CRA Tax-free savings accounts are increasingly being challenged by Canada Revenue Agency auditors targeting…

The Canada Revenue Agency has an audit project targeting Canadians it feels are in the business of trading securities and using their tax free savings accounts to shelter the proceeds.
 
To determine whether something is operating as a business, the CRA typically weighs eight factors, legal sources say. And although none of the eight factors listed below may be sufficient on its own, a combination of them can lead to an audit, tax and legal experts suggest.

Ultimately, the CRA can say a taxpayer has broken the rules on a balance of probabilities and it’s up to the person to prove otherwise.

The eight factors are:

• Frequency of transactions — a history of extensive buying and selling of securities or of a quick turnover of properties

• Period of ownership — securities are usually owned only for a short period of time

• Knowledge of securities markets — the taxpayer has some knowledge of or experience in the securities markets

• Trading experience — security transactions form a part of a taxpayer’s ordinary business

• Time spent — a substantial part of the taxpayer’s time is spent studying the securities markets and investigating potential purchases

• Financing — security purchases are financed primarily on margin or by some other form of debt

• Advertising – the taxpayer has advertised or otherwise made it known that he is willing to purchase securities

• Nature of the shares - normally speculative in nature or of a non-dividend type