The chase by Frances Horodelski:

Fed fatigue
The chase by Frances Horodelski:

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On this day in 1988, Ronald Reagan (a senior himself) declared today National Senior Citizens Day. "For all they have achieved throughout life and for all they continue to accomplish, we owe older citizens our thanks and a heartfelt salute. We can best demonstrate our gratitude and esteem by making sure that our communities are good places in which to mature and grow older."

Fed fatigue. There is more than sufficient ink being spilled on the analysis of the Fed’s FOMC minutes released yesterday. Suffice to say that the U.S. dollar likes what it heard as do global stocks and U.S. futures, bonds a little less so. Maybe the most important line is “that labour market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer run.” The term normal, normalizing, normalization was used 19 times in the statement. The committee also noted that “Participants agreed that the Committee should provide additional information to the public regarding the details of normalization well beforemost participants anticipate the first steps in reducing policy accommodation to become appropriate.” Translation: we’ll tell you how we’re going to do it well before we need to do it.

Market participants will now await the big speeches tomorrow including Janet Yellen in the morning. The theme of this year’s Jackson Hole is “Re-Evaluating Labour Market Dynamics” and the program will be released today at 6 p.m. mountain time.

It is global PMI day (when Markit provides an early look at the manufacturing sector around the world) and generally the data points were softer than expected and softer than the previous month. The weakest link is France which remains below 50 (the demarcation between expansion and contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy) but at the same weak level as last month. All the other major countries have numbers above 50. The number for the U.S. will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET.

On the earnings calendar, Hewlett Packard is trading down about 1% this morning post its results last evening. The company’s results were at the high end of guidance, the mid-point of its full year outlook was raised, revenue rose for the first time in 11 quarters and the hardware side of the business grew although services fell. Free cash flow is coming in above the company’s forecasts but RBC wonders whether it is sustainable. Barclays notes that cash flow is “exceptionally strong” providing more options for the company’s next fiscal year. Barclays rates the name neutral but has raised the valuation target to $41 from $38. There are 16 buys, 19 holds and 2 sells.

There aren’t a lot of us, but Canada is in the AAA group and continues to be worthy of that rating according to Fitch which affirmed that credit rating last night. Who else is in the club – Australia, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Hong Kong, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Mexico, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The United States has a split rating with S&P at AA+ while Moody’s remains at AAA. There are only three U.S. companies with AAA ratings: Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson and Exxon Mobil.

Today’s BNN line-up includes CEOs from Exchange Income Corporation, BuildDirect, Whooshh Innovations and Caldwell Investment Management. Our shows will also focus on the opportunities and expectations for the Canadian banking sector as Royal Bank kicks off reporting season tomorrow as well as our ongoing plethora of investment ideas.

Headlines are few and far between but we do expect the Department of Justice to announce a record settlement with Bank of America where the latter will be paying an estimated $17 billion in fines for its participation in the mortgage debacle of the financial crisis. We have breaking news that Family Dollar is saying not yet to Dollar General due to anti-trust concerns and the belief that a deal with DG couldn’t be completed given those concerns. FDO cited a letter from Dollar General in a letter sent last night that included “blatant mischaracterizations and did nothing to address the anti-trust issues in DG’s proposal.” And in other news, Wind Mobile is dramatically dropping its roaming rates.

We’re awaiting existing home sales and the leading economic indicators at 10 a.m. ET. A couple of interesting analyst changes including Cameco dropped to hold from buy at Cowen and Tesla’s new coverage at CSLA with a buy and a $300 target.

www.bnn.ca

Central bank hawks put the brakes on stocks, boost GBP and USD

1 hour ago by Colin Cieszynski

The stock market rallies that kicked off the week appear to have run out of gas, with indices in Europe starting to backslide and U.S. markets heading for a flat to slightly lower open.

While indices appear due for a trading correction after several straight days of advances, the blame for today’s retreat appears to fall squarely on the shoulders of hawkish central bankers who appear to be gaining strength.

Minutes from this month’s Bank of England meeting showed that two MPC members (Weale and McCafferty) voted for a 0.25 per cent rate increase, the first dissenters on interest rates since Governor Carney took the helm last year. This news helped Sterling to retain its footing, though it remains below the 200-day average and Fibonacci level near $1.6690 it broke earlier in the week.

The Bank of England news has also changed attitudes about the minutes from the last FOMC meeting which are due this afternoon. Although Fed Chair Yellen is expected to remain dovish at her Jackson Hole speech on Friday, the last FOMC meeting had its first hawkish dissenter of the year and the street may look to the minutes for signs of how many potential allies Philadelphia Fed President Plosser may have who could put pressure on the others to reduce stimulus faster.

The potential that the hawkish camp at the Fed may be growing has dragged on U.S. stocks this morning, and a guidance cut from Target hasn’t helped the bulls cause. USD is on the rebound today against most other major paper currencies but gold has stabilized in the mid $1,290s after yesterday’s takedown. In addition to GBP, CAD and NOK have been relatively strong with crude oil on the rebound. NOK may also be active this morning with Norges Bank governor Olsen speaking.

AUD has held up relatively well despite more threats from RBA Governor Stevens who noted AUD isn’t doing enough to help rebalance the economy, that he feels the market has underestimated the downside risk to the dollar and that the RBA could still intervene in forex markets at any time without notice. NZD, meanwhile continues to underperform its peers following soft inflation numbers earlier in the week.

Corporate news
Target $0.78 as expected, cuts FY guidance to $3.10-$3.20 from $3.60-$3.90 below street $3.43

Lowes $1.04 vs. street $1.02

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US STOCKS-Wall St rises on Home Depot and Apple; data helps (Thomson Reuters)

Company News Alert

 

US STOCKS-Wall St rises on Home Depot and Apple; data helps (Thomson Reuters)

* Home Depot climbs after earnings, outlook
* Apple retakes triple-digit territory, hits $100
* July U.S. housing starts exceed expectations; CPI barely rises
* Dow up 0.5 pct; S&P 500 up 0.4 pct; Nasdaq up 0.3 pct (Updates to midday)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday after solid earnings from Home Depot helped lift retailers' shares and Apple touched $100 for the first time since its stock split this summer. Data on housing and inflation gave the market more support.
Home Depot Inc gained 6 percent to $88.66, marking the stock's largest percentage gain since May 2009 and giving the biggest boost to the Dow. The world's largest home improvement retailer reported earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street's expectations. Home Depot also raised its full-year profit forecast.
The S&P 500 retail index shot up 2 percent, its biggest gain since Feb. 6. The index is up nearly 6 percent for the month so far.
Apple Inc returned to the triple-digit zone, hitting $100 for the first time since its seven-for-one stock split in June and giving the iPad and iPhone maker a market capitalization that topped $600 billion. The rally in Apple's stock was the single biggest force lifting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday. At midday, Apple was up 1.3 percent at $100.49.
"People have been looking to put a stake in the heart of retailers, due to a weak consumer and weak jobs market, relatively speaking, but they have been a 'bend but don't break' group, which gives a comfort to those on the fence," said Andre Bakhos, managing director at Janlyn Capital LLC in Bernardsville, New Jersey.
Housing starts rebounded strongly in July as groundbreaking surged 15.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.09 million units to halt two straight months of declines and top expectations for a rate of 969,000 units.
In addition, the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1 percent last month, in line with expectations, which could give the Federal Reserve reason to keep interest rates low for a while.
"All of these together are giving the market a good tone, shrugging off the recent dip related to geopolitical concerns," Bakhos said.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting will be released on Wednesday. Investors will also closely monitor the annual meeting of top central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from Thursday through Saturday for possible insight into the path for monetary policy.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75.83 points or 0.45 percent, to 16,914.57. The S&P 500 gained 8.54 points or 0.43 percent, to 1,980.28. The Nasdaq Composite added 12.39 points or 0.27 percent, to 4,520.70.
Shares of discount retailer TJX Cos Inc jumped 8.6 percent to $58.51 and the stock of teen-oriented chain Urban Outfitters Inc rose 4.1 percent to $38.43 - both after quarterly results.
Dick's Sporting Goods shares advanced 3.3 percent to $44.96 after the retailer's second-quarter results topped analysts' forecasts.

The shares of youth-oriented retailer Aeropostale Inc surged 22.8 percent to $3.98. Aeropostale said it had reappointed Julian Geiger as chief executive officer and forecast a smaller loss than its earlier view.
In contrast to retailers' overall strength for the day, shares of Elizabeth Arden Inc sank 24 percent to $14.91 after the company reported the biggest quarterly loss in its history due to a steeper-than-anticipated drop in sales of celebrity perfumes. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski and Jan Paschal)

 

 

The selloff this past week dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.42% into negative territory for the year,

Over the past 45 years, the stock market has lost more than 20% each time three warning signs flashed simultaneously.

After a selloff this past week dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.42%   into negative territory for the year, it’s worth noting that all three are flashing today.

The signals are excessive levels of bullish enthusiasm; significant overvaluation, based on measures like price/earnings ratios; and extreme divergences in the performances of different market sectors.

They have gone off in unison six times since 1970, according to Hayes Martin, president of Market Extremes , an investment consulting firm in New York whose research focus is major market turning points.

Bear in the air

The S&P 500’s SPX -0.29%  average subsequent decline on those earlier occasions was 38%, with the smallest drop at 22%. A bear market is considered a selloff of at least 20%, with bull markets defined as rallies of at least 20%.

In fact, no bear market has occurred without these three signs flashing at the same time. Once they do, the average length of time to the beginning of a decline is about one month, according to Martin.

The first two of these three market indicators — an overabundance of bulls and overvaluation of stocks — have been present for several months. Back in December, for example, the percentage of advisers who described themselves as bullish rose above 60%, a level Investors Intelligence, an investment service, considers “danger territory.” Its latest reading, as of Wednesday, was 56%.

Also beginning late last year, the price/earnings ratio for the Russell 2000 index of smaller-cap stocks, after excluding negative earnings, rose to its highest level since the benchmark was created in 1984 — higher even than at the October 2007 bull-market high or the March 2000 top of the Internet bubble.

Three strikes and you’re out

The third of Martin’s trio of bearish omens emerged just recently, which is why in late July he advised clients to sell stocks and hold cash. That’s when the fraction of stocks participating in the bull market, which already had been slipping, declined markedly.

One measure of this waning participation is the percentage of stocks trading above an average of their prices over the previous four weeks. Among stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, this proportion fell from 82% at the beginning of July to just 50% on the day the S&P 500 hit its all-time high.

It was one of “the sharpest breakdowns in market breadth that I’ve ever seen in so short a period of time,” Martin says.

Another sign of diverging market sectors: When the S&P 500 hit its closing high on July 24, it was ahead 1.4% for the month, in contrast to a 3.1% decline for the Russell 2000

Expect up to a 20% S&P 500 decline

How big of a decline is likely? Martin’s best guess is a loss of between 13% and 20% for the S&P 500, less than the 38% average decline following past occasions when his triad of unfavorable indicators was present. The reason? He expects the Federal Reserve to quickly “step in to provide extreme liquidity to blunt the decline.”

To be sure, Martin focuses on a small sample, which makes it difficult to draw robust statistical conclusions. But David Aronson, a former finance professor at Baruch College in New York who now runs a website that makes complex statistical tests available to investors, says that this limitation is unavoidable when focusing on past market tops, since “by definition it will involve a small sample.”

He says that he has closely analyzed Martin’s research and takes his forecast of a market drop “very seriously.”

Martin says that expanding his sample isn’t possible because most of his current indicators didn’t exist before the 1970s and “the comparative math gets very unreliable.” But he says he does use several statistical techniques for dealing with small samples that increase his confidence in the conclusions that his research draws.

Russell 2000 could take 30% hit

He says stocks with smaller market capitalizations will be the hardest hit in the decline he is anticipating, in part because they currently are so overvalued. He forecasts that the Russell 2000 will fall by as much as 30%.

Also among the hardest-hit stocks during a decline will be those with the highest “betas” — that is, those with the most pronounced historical tendencies to rise or fall by more than the overall market. Martin singles out semiconductors in particular — and technology stocks generally — as high-beta sectors.

He predicts that blue-chip stocks, particularly those that pay a large dividend, will lose the least in any decline. One exchange-traded fund that invests in such stocks is iShares Select Dividend DVY +0.04%  , which charges annual expenses of 0.40%, or $40 per $10,000 invested.

The average dividend yield of the stocks the fund owns is 3%; that yield is calculated by dividing a company’s annual dividend by its stock price. Though the fund’s yield is higher than the S&P 500’s 2% yield, it nevertheless pursues a defensive strategy. It invests in the highest-dividend-paying blue-chip stocks only after excluding firms whose five-year dividend growth rate is negative, those whose dividends as a percentage of earnings per share exceed 60% and those whose average daily trading volume is less than 200,000 shares.

The consumer-staples sector has also held up relatively well during past declines. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF XLP +0.77%  currently has a dividend yield of 2.5% and an annual expense ratio of 0.16%.

If the broad market’s loss is in the 13%-to-20% range that Martin anticipates, and you have a large amount of unrealized capital gains in your taxable portfolio, you could lose in taxes what you gain by selling to sidestep the decline. But the larger losses he anticipates for smaller-cap stocks could be big enough to justify selling and paying the taxes on your gains.