Monday, April 16, 2012

Investors focus on U.S. financials

Economic growth slows in ChinaThe chase by Marty Cej:It was a tough week for North American stocks last week, but I'm back now. European stocks are mostly higher and U.S. index futures are pointing to early gains Monday as investors look for confirmation that U.S. consumers continue to spend and corporate balance sheets -- especially the banks' -- are stronger than they were a year ago. U.S. retail sales kick off the week's economic data points while Citigroup may set the tone today for a handful of heavyweight financials' earnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley through the week.Citigroup said a few moments ago that first-quarter net profit dipped 2 percent to 95 cents a share, missing the $1 US average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. However, if you strip out a $1.3 billion credit valuation adjustment, or CVA, the company earned $1.11 per share. Frances says she will explain all this to me later. The headline number was enough to whittle a few points of stock index futures, however.In Canada, the focus for the week will be on tomorrow's rate announcement from the Bank of Canada. No change to the rate is expected but BoC Governor Mark Carney may try to reinforce his warning to Canadian households that debt levels are too high and that rates must rise sometime, perhaps sooner than many Canadians expect. Carney must also acknowledge that the European debt crisis continues to threaten and austerity measures abroad will weigh on growth for quarters and years to come. He is also likely to point out that China's growth is slowing and that the U.S. recovery remains tepid at best. Convincing Canadians that they should prepare for higher interest rates in the absence of economic growth robust enough to warrant higher rates will be a challenge.China has loosened its grip ever so slightly on the yuan, allowing the currency to swing 1 percent higher or lower from the government-set daily "parity" rate compared with a band of 0.5 percent that has been in place since 2007. The question is whether this is a big deal or not and currency traders and strategists appear uncertain. The fact is, trading in the yuan rarely tested the previous 0.5 percent band so why would it test the limits of the new band? Does the widening of the band signal a swifter move to a free-floating currency or is it just an easy, pain-free way to muzzle China's currency critics?We're also watching earnings from Gannett, Mattel and Charles Schwab.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Equedia: Just when you thought it was safe...

Just when you thought it was safe...

This past week, the S&P 500 posted its first back-to-back weekly drop in 2012. European stocks continued to fall for the fourth straight week - the longest streak since last August.

Crude capped its fifth weekly decline since February as China's economic growth slowed to the least in almost three years.

China is the second largest consumers of oil - second only to the United States.

During this sideways market, investing becomes a chore. You can clean up, but the dust keeps piling up. Regardless of fundamentals, the prices of stocks may not be a direct correlation to the performance of its company. As I watch the news, be it CNBC or Bloomberg, all I hear are these so-called experts telling investors which way the market is going.

If the news is positive, they tell us the market is going up. If the news is negative, they tell us its going down. But the truth is, they have no idea. No one does. The market still hasn't decided which way it's going.

One week it's up. The next week it's down.
With the political drama that's about to unfold in the US and the European debt woes continuing to plague the global markets, making short term bets on the market is simply just that - a bet. You're better off heading to the casino.

Profits in the market are becoming tough and the only reason we still have a market to play is because hedge funds and algo-traders are desperate to make a return. They are churning the market for whatever they can get. Volume continues to be light on all markets and positive retail buying sentiment just isn't there.

Overall, I am sitting on the sidelines. But that doesn't mean I am not playing it. My portfolio is shrinking but I am accumulating and looking for bargains on many of the junior to mid-cap precious metal stocks. Many of them are bottoming or have already bottomed, which means a lot of them could easily double before the year is over.

I will once again be looking at purchases in the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) - perhaps as early as next week. (I also continue to like silver and expect a breakout and much higher prices within the next few months. iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) would be worth looking into.)

Both of our featured companies this year are up, while most of its peers are down.

MAG Silver (TSX: MAG) (NYSE: MVG) has become one of the strongest silver performers in N. American markets this year, up over 40% since early January. It's up more than 23% since our initial coverage back in February.

Abzu Gold (TSX-V: ABS) (OTCQX: ABZUF) is now up 62.5% since our report last week (click to see). However, it still remains undervalued and extremely cheap ($C0.26) relative to where they have been since they started trading (C$1.20 at its peak, with a 52-week high of C$0.80). Even with the recent climb, sellers in Abzu's market remain minimal and that means minimal buying in the market could force Abzu higher - as it has just done this past week. We never know who might show up to sell, but so far it seems there are some bigger hands willing to take shares at these prices.

All warrants in Abzu are above C$0.40. There are 10 million warrants at C$0.40 which just expired last week and management has never exercised or sold any warrants.

(Other warrants include 2.88 million at $0.90 due Aug. 15th, 2012, 200K at $0.60 due Nov. 30, 2014)

I am seeing a lot more precious metal juniors bottoming out, but I don't expect this to last much longer. I don't see any other sector with a better discount and that means there's an opportunity to pick up cheap shares. You can bet I'll be looking for them.

What About Gold Prices?

The S&P 500 had its best Q1 gain since 1998 sending U.S. stocks above gold by the most in more than a decade. The S&P 500 climbed 12 percent, 5.3 percentage points more than gold for the widest gap to start a year since 1999, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While gold has not performed nearly as well as the S&P this year, that is about to change.

As the stock market moves up, it gives the ultimate illusion that everything is better and people begin to accept that the economy is recovering. While I believe the market will eventually tell the tale, I don't believe that everything is better. And the market is once again showing us the future, as stocks fell in back-to-back weeks.

With the volatility of the stock market back and a negative sentiment brewing, we should soon see gold move up again - as it did last week.

Those forcing the price of gold down are beginning to lose the battle and we're seeing the bulls overpower them once again. If this continue, gold could easily bounce back to US$1800 in a short period of time.

My target hasn't changed. Gold at US$2000/oz is achievable - especially if we get QE3.

Further monetization of debt is inevitable. That means the fiat system will slowly breakdown and real assets such as real estate, gold, silver, diamonds, commodities, and collectibles will be the only true form of wealth preservation.

Those hanging onto too much cash in the long haul will see their purchasing power deplete and much of their wealth destroyed. For now, cash is king as it allows you to profit from undervalued stocks in the precious metals sector. So make your gains now and prepare for a long period of currency consolidation.

Ivan LoEquedia Weekly

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Bankers Petroleum Operational Update for the First Quarter 2012

Bankers Petroleum Operational Update for the First Quarter 2012


Block "F" Exploration Well on Ardenica Structure is Currently Drilling

CALGARY, April 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ - Bankers Petroleum Ltd. ("Bankers" or the
"Company") (TSX: BNK) (AIM: BNK) is pleased to announce the following
first quarter operational update.


Production and Oil Prices


The average first quarter 2012 production was 14,120 barrels of oil per
day ("bopd"), 2% higher than the fourth quarter 2011 rate. Oil sales
from the Patos-Marinza oilfield in Albania during the quarter averaged
13,280 bopd.


The crude oil inventory at March 31st was 312,000 barrels, an increase of 71,000 barrels from December 31st, 2011, accounting for the minimum inventory increase with expansion of
the central treatment facility in the oilfield and addition of the
sales crude pipeline from the oilfield to Fier; both projects were
commissioned during the quarter.


The Patos-Marinza first quarter average oil price was approximately
US$84.89 per barrel (representing 72% of the Brent oil price of
US$118.49 per barrel), as compared with the fourth quarter average oil price of
US$71.67 per barrel (66% of Brent oil).


Recent negotiations for spot export crude sales, including one with a
large European refiner, have been priced at 75 to 78% of Brent for 2012
volumes.


Drilling and Well Reactivations Update


Twenty-seven (27) wells have been drilled during the first quarter:
twenty-four (24) horizontal production wells and three (3) water
disposal wells. An additional water disposal well has recently finished
drilling and will commence disposal operations in April. One vertical
exploration well is currently drilling on Block "F". Twenty-two (22)
of the horizontal wells have been completed and are on production.


With the newly expanded water disposal capacity, the Company expects to
see gradual growth in production over the next several quarters by
placing on production several oil wells with high water cuts that were
shut-in due to the limited water capacity and enabling higher
drawn-down production to improve oil rates from several wells.


Reactivation and recompletion work continued in the first quarter with
seven (7) new reactivations and recompletions.


Thermal Program


Operations commenced at the Southern Patos cyclic steam pilot in
December 2011 with injection into the first horizontal well 5201. The
Company placed this well on production in January and have recovered
approximately 150% of cold water equivalent injected. Optimization of
the well is continuing to evaluate reservoir fluid mobility and oil
quality. In addition, the Company recently started the un-steamed
horizontal offset well 5202 on cold production to establish a base line
production level to evaluate incremental gain from thermal operations.


The thermal model has been updated with the most recent core and
petrophysical data, and with the empirical data from the pilot, will be
calibrated over the coming months.


Exploration Block "F"


The first Block "F" exploration well on the Ardenica structural prospect
was spud on March 29th; it is currently drilling at a depth of 2,000 meters and is anticipated to reach total depth of 2,030 meters.
Following well log evaluation for indications of hydrocarbon presence,
completion and testing operations will begin in the second quarter.


Infrastructure Development


The first phase of the crude oil sales pipeline, which connects the
Patos-Marinza oilfield to Bankers' storage and loading hub facility at
Fier was completed and commenced operations in January.


The expanded central treatment facility is also complete with the
addition of two new treating trains and commenced operations in
January, increasing the field treating capacity to 25,000 bopd.


The Company drilled three water disposal wells during the quarter and
finished drilling a fourth new disposal well in early April. With these
additional wells and surface facilities infrastructure, the water
disposal capacity has been increased from 30,000 barrels of water per
day to in excess of 40,000 barrels of water per day. This capacity
increase was required for ongoing drilling operations as well as the
water control initiatives within the field.


Kucova


Water injection into well F-38 commenced last year and two offset wells,
F34 and F41, were placed on production in December. An additional
injector was added in January of this year to complete the first
water-flood pattern. Water-flood balancing is ongoing.


Environmental initiatives


The Sector III environmental remediation and reclamation project summary
report was completed this quarter. Installation of 130 groundwater
monitoring wells in the field area to assess shallow surface water and
soil for impacts from historical operations has also been completed;
final reports are expected by the third quarter.


The Company has initiated the sludge treatment facility engineering and
design and anticipates having equipment on the ground in the third
quarter to commence larger scale waste sludge treatment in the field
area. In addition, planning is underway for the high temperature
thermal desorption unit pilot project to treat hydrocarbon contaminated
soils.


Updated Corporate Presentation


For additional information on this operational update, please see the
April 2012 version of the Company's corporate presentation at www.bankerspetroleum.com.


Conference Call


The Management of Bankers will host a conference call on April 10, 2012
at 6:45am MST to discuss this Operations Update. Following Management's
presentation, there will be a question and answer session for analysts
and investors.


To participate in the conference call, please contact the conference
operator ten minutes prior to the call at 1-888-231-8191 or
1-647-427-7450. A live audio web cast of the conference call will also
be available on Bankers website at www.bankerspetroleum.com or by entering the following URL into your web browser http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/detail/952037/1019321. The web cast will be archived two hours after the presentation on the
website, and posted on the website for 90 days. A replay of the call
will be available until April 24, 2012 by dialing 1-855-859-2056 or
1-416-849-0833 and entering access code 70537361.


Caution Regarding Forward-looking Information


Information in this news release respecting matters such as the expected
future production levels from wells, future prices and netback, work
plans, anticipated total oil recovery of the Patos-Marinza and Kucova
oilfields constitute forward-looking information. Statements containing
forward-looking information express, as at the date of this news release, the Company's plans, estimates, forecasts, projections,
expectations, or beliefs as to future events or results and are believed to be reasonable based on information currently
available to the Company.


Exploration for oil is a speculative business that involves a high
degree of risk. The Company's expectations for its Albanian operations
and plans are subject to a number of risks in addition to those
inherent in oil production operations, including: that Brent oil prices
could fall resulting in reduced returns and a change in the economics
of the project; availability of financing; delays associated with
equipment procurement, equipment failure and the lack of suitably
qualified personnel; the inherent uncertainty in the estimation of
reserves; exports from Albania being disrupted due to unplanned
disruptions; and changes in the political or economic environment.


Production and netback forecasts are based on a number of assumptions
including that the rate and cost of well takeovers, well reactivations
and well recompletions of the past will continue and success rates will
be similar to those rates experienced for previous well
recompletions/reactivations/development; that further wells taken over
and recompleted will produce at rates similar to the average rate of
production achieved from wells recompletions/reactivations/development
in the past; continued availability of the necessary equipment,
personnel and financial resources to sustain the Company's planned work program;
continued political and economic stability in Albania; the existence of reserves as expected; the continued release by
Albpetrol of areas and wells pursuant to the Plan of Development and Addendum; the absence of unplanned disruptions;
the ability of the Company to successfully drill new wells and bring
production to market; and general risks inherent in oil and gas
operations.


Forward-looking statements and information are based on assumptions that
financing, equipment and personnel will be available when required and on reasonable terms, none of which are
assured and are subject to a number of other risks and uncertainties described under "Risk Factors" in the Company's
Annual Information Form and Management's Discussion and Analysis, which are available on SEDAR under the
Company's profile at www.sedar.com.


There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to
be accurate. Actual results and future events could differ materially
from those anticipated in such statements. Readers should not place
undue reliance on forward-looking information and forward looking statements.


Review by Qualified Person


This release was reviewed by Suneel Gupta, Executive Vice President and
Chief Operating Officer of Bankers Petroleum Ltd., who is a "qualified
person" under the rules and policies of AIM in his role with the
Company and due to his training as a professional engineer (member of
APEGGA) with over 20 years experience in domestic and international oil
and gas operations.


About Bankers Petroleum Ltd.


Bankers Petroleum Ltd. is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration and
production company focused on developing large oil and gas reserves. In Albania, Bankers operates and has the
full rights to develop the Patos-Marinza heavy oilfield and has a 100% interest in the Kucova oilfield, and a 100%
interest in Exploration Block "F". Bankers' shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the AIM Market in London,
England under the stock symbol BNK.




SOURCE Bankers Petroleum Ltd.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Will Fed weigh on N.A. markets?

The chase by Noah Zivitz:

Where to begin? How about with major European indices down more than a percentage point, U.S. futures pointing lower and the price of gold down more than 2% on the heels of the Federal Reserve showing no immediate urge to open the stimulus spigots. Today I'd like to hear a little more about what could compel the FOMC to reconsider. What happens if employment growth falters? Yesterday's minutes revealed concern inside the Fed about the sustainability of employment gains. Current consensus is for Friday's non-farm payrolls to show growth of 201,000. We'll get a snapshot of America's labour market with today's ADP report at 8:15am ET.
And let's not forget StatsCan publishes its labour force survey tomorrow. Worth noting today's CFIB confidence index shows small business sentiment has climbed to levels associated with sustainable economic growth.

Mario Draghi will get plenty of attention today. The European Central Bank releases its rate decision at 7:45am ET; but our main focus will be the ECB president's press conference at 8:30. We'll listen closely for any comments about Spain's economic outlook; particularly after the government's borrowing costs spiked in a bond auction today. All of this against the backdrop of fresh data showing eurozone retail sales, services and manufacturing activity losing ground.
Some compelling corporate stories to be tracked in Canada:

Hours after its shares soared 17% intraday, RONA issued a statement saying it isn't for sale, and doesn't think a takeover would be in its best interests. Would its shareholders beg to differ? That's what we need to know.

According to a Bloomberg report, Yellow Media bondholders recently held a conference call to discuss a plan to force the company into a restructuring. This probably shouldn't come as a surprise, considering the company's difficult attempt to transform itself from old media to new. It's also another shining example of bondholders grabbing the wheel. Let's get someone to discuss Yellow's options.

Royal Bank of Canada remains a hot topic. CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton held his ground in conversation yesterday on Market Sense, and the Globe and Mail is reporting the U.S. regulator didn't give its Canadian counterparts much of a heads up before filing its lawsuit. We need to hear more about the role OSFI and the government could play in this process – if any. We'll get plenty of intel tomorrow, when Howard chats with OSFI boss Julie Dickson.

We've also got Shaw Communications partnering up with New Brunswick-based Xplornet to offer internet and satellite packages to rural customers. Bundling is the name of the game. But what about wireless?

We've also seen Chinese premier Wen Jiabao slam the grip large banks have on China, and urge room for private capital. Presumably, this is about ramping up access to credit.
Still to come today: National Bank's AGM, Jim Flaherty speaks in Vancouver at 4:05pm ET, ISM services index lands at 10am, and Bank of Canada deputy governor Jean Boivin speaks in Toronto at 12pm. We'll have it all covered. And don't miss former TransCanada CEO Hal Kvisle on Headline at 12:50, and former FDIC chairman Bill Isaac on Market Sense at 5:30.