Play Gold Thru Goldcorp Warrants g.wt.g-tse

Globe says bets on Eldorado, others pays off for Taylor


2011-04-25 06:02 ET - In the News

See In the News (C-ELD) Eldorado Gold Corp

The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, April 25, edition that Goodman & Co. Investment Counsel manager David Taylor runs Dynamic Canadian Value Class and Dynamic Value Fund of Canada, which posted over five years annualized returns of 7.7 per cent and 7.5 per cent. The Globe's Darcy Keith writes in the Number Cruncher column that Mr. Taylor attributes his success to his use of cash, big sector bets and being contrarian by buying cheap stocks with potential catalysts. Mr. Taylor says, "If you want to be No. 1, you can't build a portfolio that looks like everybody else." In late 2008 Mr. Taylor had boosted cash to 20 per cent, which he put to work in March, 2009. Mr. Taylor's best move came when he slashed his energy weighting that year to 11 per cent versus 30 per cent for the index. It was a contrarian move. He invested in "very cheap" gold stocks when that metal was trading around $500 an ounce compared with $1,500 today. He bought names such as Osisko Mining, Eldorado Gold, Tahoe Resources and also Andean Resources, which has been taken over by Goldcorp. Mr. Taylor says, "I bought gold and silver stocks when everybody was madly in love with and only cared about oil."

G-WT-G.TO - Goldcorp Inc. G Wt (TSX)

Date	Open	High	Low	Last	Change	Volume	% Change
04/26/11	6.3100	6.6200	6.0500	6.3100	-0.6900	253984	-9.86%

Composite Indicator	-- Signal --	-- Strength --	-- Direction --
Trend Spotter (TM)	Buy	Weak	Weakest
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator	Buy	Minimum	Weakest
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel	Hold		Bearish
20 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy	Weak	Weakest
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy	Maximum	Strongest
20 Day Bollinger Bands	Hold		Bearish
Short Term Indicators Average:	60% - Buy
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index	Hold		Bearish
50 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy	Strong	Weakest
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy	Maximum	Strongest
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price	Sell	Average	Strongest
Medium Term Indicators Average:	25% - Buy
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index	Buy	Minimum	Weakest
100 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy	Strong	Weakest
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy	Average	Strongest
Long Term Indicators Average:	100% - Buy
Overall Average:	64% - Buy

G-WT-G.TO - Goldcorp Inc. G Wt (TSX)

Date	Open	High	Low	Last	Change	Volume	% Change
04/26/11	6.3100	6.6200	6.0500	6.3100	-0.6900	253984	-9.86%

---

Today's Opinion: 64% Buy Yesterday's Opinion: 96% Buy Last Week's Opinion: 96% Buy Last Month's Opinion: 56% Buy Ratings: Strength: Direction: 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100

G-WT-G.TO - Goldcorp Inc. G Wt (TSX)

Date	Open	High	Low	Last	Change	Volume	% Change
04/26/11	6.310	6.620	6.050	6.310	-0.690	253984	-9.86 %

House Positions for C:G.WT.G from 20110427 to 20110427

House	Bought	$Val	Ave	Sold	$Val	Ave	Net	$Net
7 TD Sec	56,175	354,829	6.316	41,117	270,610	6.581	15,058	-84,219
79 CIBC	27,500	179,685	6.534	15,000	93,963	6.264	12,500	-85,722
85 Scotia	2,500	16,020	6.408	0			2,500	-16,020
19 Desjardins	2,000	13,300	6.65	200	1,232	6.16	1,800	-12,068
65 Goldman	300	1,877	6.257	200	1,294	6.47	100	-583
2 RBC	3,300	20,993	6.362	3,300	21,821	6.612	0	828
80 National Bank	117	769	6.573	275	1,751	6.367	-158	982
124 Questrade	0			200	1,242	6.21	-200	1,242
33 Canaccord	0			4,000	24,639	6.16	-4,000	24,639
62 Haywood	0			5,000	33,210	6.642	-5,000	33,210
13 Instinet	2,800	18,676	6.67	9,600	58,986	6.144	-6,800	40,310
1 Anonymous	20,300	132,663	6.535	36,100	230,064	6.373	-15,800	97,401
TOTAL	114,992	738,812	6.425	114,992	738,812	6.425	0	0

'The Ultimate Gold Report'

Investor Uprising Releases
09:00 EDT Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The inaugural issue of its premium research service, Investor Uprising Confidential

NEW YORK, April 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Investor Uprising (www.investoruprising.com) has released "All That Glitters: The Ultimate Gold Report," a 28-page, definitive guide to the gold bull market, as part of the launch of its premium research service, Investor Uprising Confidential (www.investoruprising.com/confidential).

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20110411/NY80781LOGO-a )

The result of six months of research, "The Ultimate Gold Report" analyzes the leading factors driving the price of gold. It also breaks down a detailed quantitative analysis of the gold price, telling you how high the price could go, based on historical market metrics.

"Amazingly, lots of people have missed one of the most consistent bull markets of modern times," says R. Scott Raynovich, Editor in Chief of Investor Uprising Confidential. "Our research indicates that gold has plenty more room to run, and that by several metrics, gold is still undervalued. We think this is why some of the world's best hedge funds are holding tight."

Gold hit a new all-time historical record this week, reaching $1,500 per ounce. The report analyzes the gold price with respect to historical data such as global debt levels, its percentage of the US monetary supply, and its relationship to total global financial assets and to other markets such as oil. The report compares the current price moves with past bull markets and concludes that gold could be entering the most powerful stage of its most aggressive price rise ever.

The report also includes an analysis of the leading gold-mining companies, all of which are profitable and have attractive valuation metrics with a rising gold price. The companies analyzed in the report include Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN), Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY).

The report is the first in a series of six ground-breaking industry reports that will be issued by IU Confidential this year. The service can be located at www.investoruprising.com/confidential.

About Investor Uprising

Investor Uprising is the individual investor's no-nonsense community for accessing business trends and investment strategies. Combining expert market commentary, fundamental analysis and on-the-ground reporting, Investor Uprising helps the reader find the best investment opportunities in global markets. Sponsored by PR Newswire and operated by United Business Media, Investor Uprising's community of contributors will reach millions of potential business readers around the world.

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What's next for gold after it hits 1500.00 per ounce ?

Traders and analysts have been raising their price targets on gold as the precious metal continues its steady climb. Comex June gold futures, the most actively traded gold contract, settled just shy of $1,500 an ounce on Wednesday, though prices stayed above that mark for most of the day.


Tom Grill | Iconica | Getty Images

Analysts at Capital Economics continue to maintain that gold prices will reach $1,600 an ounce by the end of the year and will climb to $2,000 an ounce by the end of 2012. (The firm first made that call in December of last year when prices were under $1400 an ounce.)

Traders point to three main factors underpinning gold prices: inflation fears, low interest rates, and gold's safe haven status being reinforced by "destabilizing events," such as the euro zone's fiscal crisis, Japan's earthquake, and political unrest in North Africa.

Capital Economics says gold prices will continue to be supported as "slower global growth and lower inflation mean that monetary policy is likely to remain extremely accommodative in the US and in the other major developed economies. What's more, there are plenty of candidates that could cause a fresh bout of risk aversion, including an escalation of the fiscal crisis in the euro-zone."

Don't forget about China. HSBC precious metals analyst Jim Steel says comments from the governor of the People's Bank of China earlier this week about the country's foreign exchange reserves have also been supportive of gold prices.

"Any increase in non-US dollar assets would likely be indirectly supportive of gold, especially if it weakened the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency," Steel says. He currently sees gold prices rising to a near-term high of $1,550 an ounce.

But the future may be even brighter than that for the precious metals in the coming months. Traders in the New York gold pits says call options — bets that prices will go higher — have been extremely hot this week.

"There's been significant call buying between the $1800 and $1900 region in August and October contracts," says Mihir Dange, an options trader and co-founder of Arbitrage LLC. "So obviously there's a bullish bet that prices are going to go there within the next six months."

4 most dangerous words in investing

This time it's different...


To many investors with a sense of history, the four most dangerous words are "this time it's different". The phrase is usually evoked in an attempt to justify why a huge price gain in a particular asset class can continue to defy common sense and historical valuation norms. A surfeit of explanations on why "this time is different" is usually enough to send seasoned investors to the exits.

Silver, having defied the low expectations of many investors, has now seen a monster rally of 392% from $8.88 in October 2008 to the recent market price of $43.67. The pace of the advance has gone almost vertical with silver gaining 60% from the lows of late January.
Long term silver investors no doubt remember the aftermath of the last rapid run up in silver prices to $48.70 in January 1980. Silver prices collapsed shortly thereafter and ultimately slid to the $5 range where it remained throughout the 1990's. Silver dropped off the radar for most investors and remained dead money for 25 years before decisively breaking out of a very long base in early 2006.

Will history repeat with another meltdown in silver prices at some near point in the future, or is the rise in silver prices indicative of a major trend change in our economic future? I have never believed that the mechanical application of past price trends was a useful tool for predicting the future. Each point is history is unique with new players and new sets of circumstances. Understanding today's fundamentals are far more important than ascribing importance to past events that are largely irrelevant.

To understand why silver prices are in the initial stages of a long term super cycle advance rather than a replay of the 1980's, it is necessary to review the differences of the late 1970's compared to our current situation. Gold and silver both advanced in the 1970's as a booming, demand driven economy fueled inflation. The huge cost of financing the Vietnam War, low employment and surging wages all contributed to a steadily rising rate of inflation which peaked at 13.5% in 1981. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker finally stopped inflation dead in its tracks through a series of massive interest rate increases which brought the prime rate to a high of 21.5% in mid 1981. High interest rates caused a severe recession but by 1983, the rate of inflation had collapsed to 3.2%.
Both gold and silver moved dramatically higher during the inflation surge of the late 1970's and early 1980's but the meteoric rise in silver prices was driven by specific events. Wealthy brothers Nelson and William Hunt acquired a massive position in silver in an attempt to corner the market. Prices skyrocketed on the news and silver went from $11 per ounce in late 1979 to $48.70 in early 1980. Regulators did not take kindly to market manipulation and margin requirements on commodities were dramatically raised. The Hunt brothers' ill conceived attempt to drive silver prices higher collapsed along with their net worth. Silver prices plunged to less than $11 per ounce within two months. The last great silver "bull market" lasted less than six months, driven not by fundamental demand but rather by heavily leveraged speculators.
Fast forward 30 years - the finances of governments worldwide have reached the tipping point under ballooning debt levels and massive deficits. Additional borrowing by insolvent nations to rollover debt simply delays the day of reckoning - more debt is not the solution for too much debt.