Something is wrong in Canada when it comes to household finances

Roseman: Canadian consumers are weaker

April 04, 2010

Ellen Roseman

Something is wrong in Canada when it comes to household finances.

We think we're in good shape. We made it through hard times, thanks to healthy banks and tight mortgage rules, and we feel confident about the future.

All this is self-delusion, some economists say, pointing to the ugly reality lurking beneath the complacent veneer.

Maclean's magazine reported last February that Canada is virtually the only country where households have taken on more debt during this recession.

While total U.S. household debt shrank 1.7 per cent over the past year, debt levels here jumped 7 per cent. Most of the increase has come as a result of the huge mortgages people are taking out to buy homes at today's soaring prices.

On April 1, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal published a report, Canadian consumers – more confident but less capable, that said the surge in household consumption is not backed up by rising consumer fundamentals. Tal has created a consumer capability index that looks at Canadians' ability to spend, not their willingness to spend.

He sees some worrisome signs:

• Disposable income growth has been going down for the past year. In the year ended last February, household debt went up more than three times faster than income growth.
• Canadians have seen their liabilities rising twice as fast as their assets over the past two years – despite the rebound in stock valuations and the recent surge in home prices.
• The gap between real estate gains and income growth is also widening, with the ratio of house prices to income hovering at a 20-year high.

While there are also encouraging signs – a recent increase in the savings rate and a low long-term unemployment rate – "the balance is still weighted toward the downside," he says.

"Canadian consumer fundamentals are weaker than they have been in almost 15 years."

With higher interest rates on the way, household spending can't keep growing. It's not sustainable. And that means our consumer-driven economy may start to flag.

To me, this is a financial wake-up call. It's time to prepare for a less prosperous future.

So, what does the behavioural change involve?

Try to pay off your mortgage more quickly to avoid the shock of coming rate increases.

Don't take on more debt to buy houses at today's elevated prices. The accelerated growth in real estate values could level off soon.

Cut out frivolous spending.

Finally, think long-term. Thanks to medical advances, you may quit working in your 60s and have to stretch your retirement savings until your 80s or 90s.

Toronto sociologist Lyndsay Green looks at the challenges raised by longer life spans in a new book, You Could Live a Long Time: Are You Ready? (Thomas Allen, $19.95). Many seniors she spoke to found it helpful to plan ahead and establish some clear goals.

"Thinking about your financial future could mean a future where you won't need to think about finances," Green says.

In the upcoming Money 911 columns each Sunday, we'll look at how to plan for life beyond full-time work. How much do you need to save? Are you on the right track? What if you haven't started yet?

Carrigan: Good time to load up on exchange-traded funds Bill Carrigan

I have spent the last several months presenting technical arguments to support the reality of the current bull market, but we also need to examine the structure of the current bull in order to better manage our investments.

Two weeks ago I defined a bear market, as measured by the S&P500 or the S&P/TSX60 indices, to post a series of new 52-week lows within a rolling, 26-week time period. The last 52-week low in either market was posted 12 months ago and with most global stock indices at 18 month highs the bear market argument is without any technical foundation.

We also know the average bull is at least 30 months in duration and with the origin of the current bull somewhere between the November 2008 and March 2009 window we could anticipate another 15 months of advancing markets.

Unfortunately that may not be the case because this is a rare rebound bull, such as we had in 2003. The rebound bull will usually follow a granddaddy bear, which is a sharp, nasty bear introduced by some crisis. The last modern granddaddy's were the Fed tightening shock of 1987, the technology bubble of 2000 and the U.S. housing bubble of 2007.

A rebound bull emerges from a deeply oversold bear market and is normally of great upside magnitude, but also of shorter duration than the average bull. Rebound bulls tend to have an in like a lion and out like a lamb structure with the subsequent bear market being typically mild and also of short duration, much like the 2004 to mid-2005 window.

In the early stages of the rebound bull all stock sectors tend to have a high degree of price correlation, which produces a broad linear advance without any significant corrections. That was the condition operating during the great March 2009 to July 2009 advance. There was no need for stock picking or sector selection during this period because any long strategy worked. The idea was to recognize the new bull and get invested.

As the rebound bull matured through mid-2009 the high sector correlation unwound and introduced a sector rotational period when in late 2009 the materials sector advanced and the financials sector drifted lower through year end.

We had a shift of capital away from the front end of the market as represented by the interest rate sensitive financial, consumer and telecom sectors and into the inflation sensitive back end as represented by the energy, metals, materials and precious metals sectors.

In early 2010 the process reversed and we experienced a shift of capital into the front-end sectors which, led by the banks, enjoyed rolling series of new 52-week highs through late March 2010.

We know the early bull market strategy of getting invested in the broader stock indices will not work during periods of sector rotation. That means we have to identify investment products that will give us exposure to specific stock sectors.

This is when we take advantage of the growing exchange-traded fund complex. Sector ETFs are baskets of related stocks that trade on the TSX like individual stocks. That means with the purchase of one security an investor can "own" the entire TSX financial index or the TSX materials index.

Currently the TSX financial sector is cooling off and the red-hot stock sector is the TSX diversified metals and mining sector.

Now here is how we can get into trouble when we search out a mining sector ETF, because in this case we wish to gain exposure to the hot metals and mining sector. The S&P/TSX capped diversified metals and mining index has 14 names of TSX-listed base metals companies.

Now the only metals and mining ETF I could find is the Claymore S&P/TSX Global Mining ETF that "seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before the fund's fees and expenses, of an equity index called the S&P/TSX global mining index.

This ETF has 50-plus names having exposure to several diverse metals groups such as aluminum, diversified metals and mining, gold, precious petals and minerals and coal and consumable fuels.

Our chart is the weekly closes of the TSX diversified metal and mining index plotted above the TSX Claymore Global Mining ETF spanning about 20 months. We can clearly see the upper plot has surpassed the prior May 2009 price peak and the lower plot is well below the same relative peak. Clearly these two stock sectors while with similar names are entirely different asset classes so investigate before acting.

Bill Carrigan, is an independent stock-market analyst

QEC Time To Buy 4.00

Questerre Equity Issue Oversubscribed

03:07 EST Tuesday, March 02, 2010

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 2, 2010) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION ON U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Questerre Energy Corporation ("Questerre" or the "Company") (TSX:QEC)(OSLO:QEC) is pleased to announce that its previously reported equity issue of 20 to 30 million shares was more than two times oversubscribed.

The offering will consist of the issuance of 30 million Common Shares of the Company at an issue price of 24.50 NOK or C$4.30 for gross estimated proceeds of 735 million NOK or C$129 million.

19,972,000 Common Shares, or just under 10% of the issued and outstanding share capital of Questerre are to be issued under the Norwegian tranche at an issue price of 24.50 NOK. Pareto Securities AS, DnB NOR Markets and Arctic Securities ASA were appointed as the Company's financial advisors for the Norwegian tranche of this issue.

Allocation and contract notes will be sent to subscribers today. Payment is scheduled to take place on March 5, 2010 for the Norwegian tranche and the shares are expected to be tradable on or about March 12, 2010 on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The Common Shares issued under the Norwegian tranche are subject to certain resale restrictions in Canada and cannot be traded in Canada or to the benefit of a Canadian resident for four months from the date of closing.

10,028,000 Common Shares are to be issued under the Canadian tranche at an issue price of C$4.30. Subject to the filing and receipt of a final prospectus by the securities regulators, Questerre anticipates this portion of the issue will close in mid-March 2010.

The Canadian tranche was managed by a syndicate of agents led by Dundee Securities Corporation (bookrunner) and Cormark Securities Inc., and including Mackie Research Capital Corporation, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., Fraser Mackenzie Limited, Clarus Securities Inc., National Bank Financial Inc. and Maison Placements Canada Inc.

The Company proposes to use the net proceeds from this equity issue to fund the continued assessment of the Utica shale gas discovery in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec.

Questerre Energy Corporation is an independent energy company focused on shale gas in North America. The Company is concentrated on establishing commerciality of its Utica shale gas discovery in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec.

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 17, 2010) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION ON U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Questerre Energy Corporation ("Questerre" or the "Company") (TSX:QEC)(OSLO:QEC) reported today that it has closed its previously announced Canadian offering for gross proceeds of $43.12 million.

The offering consisted of the issuance of 10,028,000 Common Shares of the Company at $4.30 per Common Share. The offering was managed by a syndicate of agents led by Dundee Securities Corporation (bookrunner) and Cormark Securities Inc., including Mackie Research Capital Corporation, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., Fraser Mackenzie Limited, Clarus Securities Inc., National Bank Financial Inc. and Maison Placements Canada Inc.

This Canadian tranche in conjunction with the Norwegian tranche completed last week resulted in the issuance of a total of 30,000,000 Common Shares at $4.30 per Common Share for gross proceeds of approximately $129 million.

The Company plans to use the net proceeds from this equity issue to fund the continued assessment of the Utica shale gas discovery in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec.

Questerre Energy Corporation is an independent energy company focused on shale gas in North America. The Company is concentrated on establishing commerciality of its Utica shale gas discovery in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec.

This press release contains forward looking statements. More particularly, this press release contains statements concerning the anticipated use of the proceeds of the offering. Although Questerre believes that the expectations reflected in these forward looking statements are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on them because Questerre can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. The risks, uncertainties, material assumptions and other factors that could affect actual results are discussed in more detail in our Annual Information Form and other documents available at www.sedar.com. The intended use of the proceeds of the offering by Questerre might change if the Board of Directors of Questerre determines that it would be in the best interests of Questerre to deploy the proceeds for some other purpose.

The forward looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and Questerre undertakes no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.

This news release does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. These securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an available exemption from registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful.

10 classic April Fool’s jokes

April 01, 2010

Cathal Kelly

The key to a great April Fool’s prank is you and your crushing gullibility.

It’s April 1st, for the love of Pete. It happens every year. How do you keep getting fooled? It’s not like any of this stuff passes the most basic sniff test.

Except for No. 10. Right, you know who? Right? Wrong.

1. Naked Ice Borer: Why is the best? Because unlike all the others, it’s not just baffling. It’s terrifying. In 1995, Discover unveiled a ferocious looking Arctic creature that could move through ice at astounding speeds and fed on penguins. Long before anyone could get Kurt Russell on the phone, the prank was revealed. Sadly for Discover, this is the best known of all their articles. And they were the first people to spot the moon.

2. Circles for Dummies: Since the value of pi is difficult to remember, the legislature in Alabama decided in 1998 to carve off an infinite number of decimal places and reduce the pivotal measure to plain ol’ 3.0. According to physicist Mark Boslough, who authored the article on the change, this also had the pleasant side-effect of reducing pi to its “Biblical” value. The article was meant as a joke, but the Internet gave it life. The state of Alabama still gets stick over this one. Not their fault. However, they haven’t come up with an excuse for inspiring this.

3. Sandwich stupidity: This prank was greeted with widespread mirth. It should have inspired a gang of vigilante vandals to burn down every public school in the Western hemisphere and then demand that they be built again – but functional this time.

Burger King announced in 1998 that it had finally solved that whole left-handed burger problem by moving the condiments 180 degrees. Sigh. It worked. Thousands asked for one — and we let them get away and breed. Many more demanded a right-handed version. Ditto. This is the sort of thing that would prompt a bankruptcy in Japan.

4. The real Kings: Britain’s Daily Mail is the undisputed champion of April Fool’s hoaxes. There’s the time the Queen went to bet the horses, the decision to move Stonehenge and potato chips that make no noise (Hey, why isn’t anyone working on that one?)

Their best? How about the 1982 installment, where they warned readers that a defective batch of bras, made with copper, were interfering with TV signals across the country?

According to legend, the chief engineer at British Telecom was snookered, and demanded that all female employees do a bra check. At least, that’s what he told the disciplinary inquiry later.

Don’t look so smug, Daily Mail. The reason your gags work is that all of your stories read like April Fool’s jokes.

5. Sidd Finch: A British orphan, a yogic guru and a man capable of throwing a baseball so hard it emitted a sonic boom on the way to the batter’s box, Finch was created by George Plimpton for a 1985 edition of Sports Illustrated. Two thousand readers responded, most notably the New York Mets, who were reported to have the inside track to signing Finch and his “168 m.p.h.” fastball. That is, if he agreed to give up his career as a professional player of the French horn.

A week after printing Plimpton’s piece, SI reported that Finch had suddenly lost the ability to hit the plate. A week after that, they admitted Finch was an April Fool – after the Mets gave him a $125 million (U.S.) signing bonus.

6. Gravity temporarily suspended: Proving that radio listeners really should get out more, the BBC’s 1978 audience was told that a temporary realignment of the planets was going to reduce Earth’s gravity for a few moments. Many phoned in to say they’d felt the change — by jumping up and down. One household claimed to have floated around the room. Today, these are the same people cashing out their life savings in anticipation of 2012.

7. Er, radio again: What is it about radio? If there’s something you should take out of this piece, people, it’s that you can’t trust radio. Or TV. Or the Internet. Stick to newspapers. We lie straight to your face, but don’t try to weasel out of it later with the old, “Oh, I don’t think that’s what I said.”

Anyway, San Diego DJ Dave Rickards told listeners in 1993 that the space shuttle was about to make an emergency landing at a local air strip. Thousands showed up because, you know, what’s a space shuttle crash unless it has a large crowd to crash into?

8. Lung buster: It’s 1934. As far as you’re concerned, science makes about as much sense as black magic. The only thing you really believe in is The New York Times. So when The New York Times tells you that a German inventor has created a flying device that he can strap to his body, you believe them. And when they tell you that this device works by blowing into it, you shrug and say, “Okay,” because there’s a picture. Later, you bother people at dinner parties by wondering why the troops aren’t already in Tokyo, since we have those blow-flying thingies.

9. Spaghetti Trees: The granddaddy of them all. The BBC tells viewers that the 1957 spaghetti crop has been devastated, then shows a thriving spaghetti farm in Switzerland, complete with rustic pickers removing cannolis and such from trees. Ha, ha. Many later questioned the intelligence of the British. Unfair. This only proves exactly how backward they are about cookery. Sadder still is the fact that the British didn’t learn to boil pasta before 1985. This also explains their teeth.

10. Enright v. Carter: As April Fool’s jokes go, this 2001 prank wasn’t barn-burning stuff. CBC Radio planted host Michael Enright on one side of the mic and comedian Ray Landry, posing as former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, on the other. Tepid fireworks over (yawn) softwood lumber ensued, but the joke achieved epic status when one of this nation’s newspapers of record (note: not this one) played the story straight-up on the front page the next day.

Source: San Diego’s http://www.museumofhoaxes.comMuseum of HoaxesEND