Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Stock markets move higher amid positive industrial reports

Stock markets move higher amid positive industrial reports
September 16, 2009

THE CANADIAN PRESS

The Toronto stock market closed higher for a fifth session today amid positive industrial data from Canada and the U.S.

The Toronto energy and gold sectors led the way to a gain of 59.77 points to 11,555.6 on the main S&P/TSX composite index, its highest close since the end of September, 2008.

The solid showing followed a report showing that U.S. industrial companies boosted production more than expected in August.

The Federal Reserve says output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.8 per cent in August. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 0.6 per cent increase.

"No doubt about it, the U.S. economy is recovering faster than expected, though questions remain about the sustained strength of the expansion," said BMO Capital Markets senior economist Sal Guatieri.

And Statistics Canada reported that manufacturing sales rose 5.5 per cent in July to $41.4 billion, adding to the 2.2 per cent increase reported in June, thanks to improved performances in the motor vehicle and primary metals industries.

Excluding the motor vehicle assembly and motor vehicle parts industries, manufacturing sales increased 2.1 per cent.

"July's strong manufacturing report provides additional force to the case for renewed growth in the third quarter," said TD Bank (TSX: TD) economist Grant Bishop.

"However, with indicators of future shipments easing, we do not anticipate that manufacturing will see rapid gains in the months ahead."

The gold sector was up 0.77 per cent on Wednesday as inflation worries and a weaker U.S. dollar helped push the December bullion contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange up $13.90 to US$1,020.20 an ounce. It earlier reached an intraday high of US$1,023.30, its highest level since March 2008.

On the TSX, Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX: ABX) climbed 39 cents to C$41.09.

The energy sector rose 0.88 per cent as the October crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $1.58 to US$72.51 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 4.7 million barrels of oil in the U.S. last week, a bigger decline than the three million barrel drop expected by analysts. Suncor Inc. (TSX: SU) gained 79 cents to C$39.44.

Opti Canada Inc. (TSX: OPC) stock soared 57 cents or 33.93 per cent to $2.25 on heavy trading of 21 million shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Opti's sole business is a minority stake in Nexen Inc.'s (TSX: NXY) Long Lake oil sands project.

The reason for the spike wasn't immediately clear, although the company had made a bullish presentation on Tuesday morning at a major oil and gas conference in Calgary. Opti is also frequently the subject of takeover rumours that tend to make its shares volatile.

The Canadian dollar moved up 0.57 of a cent to 93.91 cents US, after rising more than a cent Tuesday amid yet another warning from the Bank of Canada that the strong loonie could derail an economic recovery.

The TSX has racked up a strong series of gains on hopes for a strong recovery and a positive third-quarter earnings season, leaving the market up 52 per cent since the lows of early March and up 28 per cent year to date.

However, analysts think the markets face some stiff headwinds in the near term that could erode those gains, pointing out that the runup has been almost straight up "and the fact that this rally has advanced further than previous rallies coming out of a bear market in the past 50 years," said Phillip Petursson, director of institutional equities at MFC Global Investment Management.

He added that the third and fourth quarters of 2009 could surprise to the upside but if consumers continue to pay down debt and cut spending, "that's going to keep growth somewhat subdued into 2010."

The TSX Venture Exchange climbed 15.19 points to 1,284.54.

New York markets were up sharply as the Dow Jones industrial average rose 108.3 points to 9,791.71.

The Nasdaq composite index moved up 30.51 points to 2,133.15 while the S&P 500 index gained 16.13 points to 1,068.76.

Investors were little swayed Wednesday by the latest report on U.S. consumer prices. The Commerce Department said its consumer price index, a measure of inflation at the retail level, rose 0.4 per cent in August, just above the 0.3 per cent rise economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected.

Excluding volatile energy and food prices, the index rose 0.1 per cent, in line with expectations.

Elsewhere on the TSX, the base metals sector rose 0.34 per cent as the December copper contract jumped 9.15 cents to US$2.9365 a pound. Teck Resources (TSX: TCK.B) gained 75 cents to $30.

In corporate news, the Globe and Mail reported that Magna International Inc.'s (TSX: MG.A) has been told by BMW, the auto parts giant's second-largest customer, that the close relationship between the two companies could be in jeopardy. It said that the German automaker fears Magna will go from parts supplier to competitor if the Canadian company fulfills its goal of leaping into the ranks of mass producers through an ownership stake in Adam Opel GmbH. Magna shares lost $1.92 to $45.09.

Harry Winston Diamond Corp. (TSX: HW) says a winter shutdown at the Diavik mine in Canada's North won't be necessary after all. The shutdown had been scheduled in response to the global economic recession that began about a year ago. Its shares rose 36 cents to $9.52.

Opti surges in heavy volume, stumping analysts

Opti surges in heavy volume, stumping analysts

Thomson Reuters


* Analysts puzzled by gain of 33 percent

* Nearly 9 times typical volume

* PetroChina bid fuels talks of next oil sands target

CALGARY, Alberta, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Shares in Opti Canada
Inc , known for its minority stake in Nexen Inc's
Long Lake oil sands project, surged by a third on
Wednesday, puzzling analysts, who said they knew of no reason
for the big gain.

Opti jumped 57 Canadian cents to C$2.25, its highest level
in almost three months, on more than 21 million shares, nearly
nine times its average volume in the last three months.

There was no clear reason for the move and a company
official was not immediately available.

Opti has been mentioned as a potential takeover target
since late August when PetroChina said it would pay
C$1.9 billion ($1.8 billion) to buy a 60 percent stake in two
planned oil sands projects from privately held Athabasca Oil
Sands Corp.

Some analysts have said that deal could be just the start
of a new wave of interest in Canada's vast oil sands resources
among Chinese companies that are scouring the globe for new oil
supplies.

"The Chinese have made a move; it's not unreasonable to
think they would make another move. But is Opti the choice? Who
knows?" Genuity Capital Market analyst Philip Skolnick said.

Opti has a 35 percent stake in the C$6.1 billion Long Lake,
Alberta, project, which is in startup mode. Nexen has said it
could be another year before all the bugs are ironed out and
the 70,000 barrel a day project is reliably operating at
capacity.

Last month, Opti negotiated eased restrictions on a key
C$350 million credit facility. Its shares had lost most of
their value in the past year as investors worried it would run
out of cash, while the startup of Long Lake, which employs new
upgrading technology, moved slowly.

At its Wednesday closing price, Opti's market value was
C$635 million.

($1=$1.07 Canadian)
(Reporting by Jeffrey Jones; editing by Rob Wilson)

Pescod writes...WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO…

WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO…
We are here in Alaska with a group of brokers, analysts,
newsletter writers and investors, so it is not long before we
get to the popular subject of...stocks.

Brian Butterworth, geologist and former analyst is now
in investment banking with Research Capital and he tells us
that one of his favorite stories is Underworld Resources (V-
UW) and as you’ve noted, that stock has come up as a fa-
vorite pick of several folks over the last while.

Many people are aware of the usual resource market
cycles—particularly lately for gold of “buy in September/
October and sell in April/May (then go away). But there is
also another cycle that those with gray hairs can remem-
ber.

That cycle goes back a couple of decades when about
the only exploration being done anywhere in the world was
in the Canadian North and Alaska and it was considered the
Northern Canadian Cycle in plays that had big hopes that
would start in the spring, work would get going in the late
spring and summer, create some interest and have some
stocks pop. But in the fall, when things would shut down
and go quiet, you knew that interest in those stocks would
wane as their exploration programs wound down.

Underworld is a decidedly Northern story and the heart
of the Klondike (maybe the source of some of the gold for
that rush?) and does that mean when work stops shortly,
interest will wane?

Sure more drilling results will be out for the next two
months or so and a resource base is expected by Christ-
mas, but then it will be decidedly quiet. How to keep up
interest?
Well, Michael Williams, chairman of the company is a
well-respected mining guy, but will the northern cycle per-
sist, or more drilling just echo what we have seen in the
last while...ever more excellent drilling results. What to do,
what to do?

No such problems with another Butterworth pick of
Keegan Resources (T-KGN) which happens to be one of our
favorites. Ghana is thousands of miles south from the
nearest snow, so there is no Northern Canadian cycle there
at all.

Mind you, Keegan also suffers from seasonal prob-
lems...the rainy season in Ghana can shut down things eas-
ily for two to three months when mining equipment simply
can’t operate in the muck.

UCORE URANIUM
(V-UCU)
$0.80 -0.04
We are in Ketchikan, Alaska—one of the prettiest little
towns you will ever see—so no wonder there are so
many tourists that take the Alaska cruises.

The economy
here has seen the logging industry totally devastated and
now even the cruise business is down because of the
economy. Still, one looks at the harbour and you see
how important tourism is. On this day, four cruise ships
are in port with 8200 tourists aboard that all hit a town of
a mere 7700 people.

There are duck boat tours, charter
flights to see the ocean, fiords and rivers, charter fishing
for the day and a walk-up fresh fish creek to see the in-
credible salmon run and a shoppers delight built up for
the tourists along this creek. There are also “Married
Man’s Walk” but we won’t get into that at this time.
Alaska does have quite the mining history, built on the
Gold Rush days to the Yukon and mining is still impor-
tant in the State and mining-friendly.

Several analysts, brokers, newsletter writers and your
humble servant are up here to see Ucore Uranium’s (soon
to be called Rare Earth One) Bokan Mountain. A former
uranium producer of a few decades ago with lots of rare
earths beside the uranium. The rare earths were known
about for some time—but those rare earths were then of
little value. Now rare earths are one of the stories of the
day and the question is, just how much Ucore has be-
cause there have been previous estimates made of as
much as 350 pounds of material. But based on very pre-
liminary work and the resource could be a lot smaller...or
larger. Also work needs to be done to see just how eco-
nomical the ore is.

John Kaiser is here—the editor of the Bottom Fishing
Report and is one of the few geologists anywhere who
knows something about rare earths. With names like
lanthanum, which is used in batteries. Neodymium, used
in super-magnets; europium, used in monitors and pan-
els and dysprosium, an extra ingredient being used in
super-magnets to help control temperatures. There is a
whole long list on names in the rare earths, but how
about this one...ytterbium...as some of these names
could surely be used in a “Scrabble” game sometime!

We hope to publish an interview with Kaiser this Fri-
day or Monday that was taped up in Ketchikan as Kaiser
believes we’ve gone into a six-month period of “rare
earth mania.” Now that we know that the Chinese are
cutting back sales and the Chinese supply 93% - 97% of
all rare earths around the world, there could be a short-
age developing down the road.


QEC and DEE still running higher