Natural gas prices are on an upward trajectory that can likely be sustained into the winter and the new year, says a Calgary energy analyst. Benchmark natural gas prices rose by 13% yesterday, as the NYMEX natural gas futures for October delivery closed at $3.30 per thousand cubic feet. "It's recovering," said Peter Linder, noting he expects natural gas prices to continue rising for the remainder of this year and into 2010. "I'm 99% certain the doomsday prophets are wrong," he said. Several factors have been pushing natural gas from prices below $3 to current levels, Linder said. One reason are that hedge funds, anticipating more stringent regulations of commodities markets in the U.S. are buying back their gas contracts. Another reason is that traders are short-covering, which means they are speculating prices will rise. But there are also more fundamental changes underway, Linder said: low drilling levels in North America, and the associated drop in production, are gradually having an impact. The approach of the heating season is another factor. "People are recognizing that fundamentally, gas can stay so low for only so long," Linder said. A recovery of Alberta's natural gas sector, however, also hinges on whether the province will further tweak its royalty regime to spur drilling. "I think all this pessimism within this province will dissipate next year, subject to our premier putting out a reasonable, proper fiscal regime," Linder said. Alberta's government is currently examining how the province's competitiveness in terms of taxation, regulation and royalties compares to other provinces. MARKUS.ERMISCH@SUNMEDIA.CA
And This:
Natural gas prices posted significant increases at all market locations since last Wednesday, September 2. The Henry Hub spot price increased 47 cents from the previous Wednesday’s price of $2.25 per MMBtu. However, intraweek trading was volatile, with natural gas prices falling below $2 per million Btu (MMBtu) at the Henry Hub on Friday, September 4 and rising to $2.72 per MMBtu yesterday.
At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the near-month natural gas contract for delivery in October 2009 rose by 11.4 cents to $2.829 per MMBtu, an increase of about 4 percent from the previous week’s level of $2.715. While the price of the near-month contract also fell lower during the week before rebounding, price changes in the near-month contract during the report week were much less pronounced than they were in the spot market.
As of Friday, September 4, working natural gas in storage was 3,392 billion cubic feet (Bcf) following an implied net injection of 69 Bcf.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract ended trading at $71.27 per barrel yesterday, an increase of $3.24 or about 5 percent, from the previous Wednesday’s price of $68.03 per barrel. On a heat-content basis, the oil price settled yesterday at $12.29 per MMBtu.
The natural gas rotary rig count increased by 2 to 701 as of September 4, according to data Baker Hughes Incorporated released, marking the seventh consecutive weekly increase in the rig count. The total rig count, which includes oil and miscellaneous rigs, also rose by 10 to 1,009.
Despite increases during the week, natural gas prices were very volatile, reaching lows not seen in seven years. Natural gas prices varied significantly during the report week, with prices at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, falling below $2 for the first time in more than 7 years and its lowest level in nearly 8 years. On September 4, heading into the Labor Day weekend, prices at the Henry Hub closed at $1.84 per MMBtu, the lowest level since December 6, 2001.
Following the long weekend, the spot price at the Henry Hub rebounded by 59 cents or 32 percent, closing at $2.43 per MMBtu on Tuesday, September 8. By the close of the report week, prices gained another 29 cents, closing at $2.72 per MMBtu. Over the week, changes in prices in the lower 48 States ranged between 33 cents and 65 cents, with no locations showing a decrease. However, prices remain at historical lows. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects an average September price of $2.35 per MMBtu at the Henry Hub, as moderate temperatures and robust supply push prices lower.
Prices throughout the country mirrored the pattern at the Henry Hub. Prices at most market locations fell below $2 per MMBtu on Friday, September 4. However, the exceptions to the below $2-price level occurred in the Northeast and Western United States. Natural gas at California locations generally traded above $2, with the Pacific Gas & Electric Citygate recording the highest price of $2.63 on Friday. Some trading locations in the Rocky Mountains - where prices generally are lower than other areas in the lower 48 States—remained above $2 per MMBtu on Friday. Prices generally rose in trading since Friday.
Despite large increases during the report week, prices remain at historical lows. During the past few weeks, prices at the Henry Hub have been below $3 per MMBtu, levels which have not been seen since August 2002. Prices at most trading points in the lower 48 States closed below $3 on Wednesday, with exceptions in the Northeast, Florida, and California. Prices are highest at the Florida Gas Transmission Citygate trading area, increasing by 65 cents to $3.35 per MMBtu during the report week, likely as a result of temperatures in the 80s.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Natural gas prices to continue rise, says analyst By MARKUS ERMISCH, SUN MEDIA
Private Placement, Petrolifera now has 121,758,510 Common Shares
Petrolifera Petroleum announces closing of private placement
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/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR
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CALGARY, Sept. 15 /CNW/ - Petrolifera Petroleum Limited ("Petrolifera" or the "Corporation") (PDP - TSX) announces that it has closed a non-brokered private placement of 1,137,500 units ("Units") at a price of $0.88 per Unit to directors and officers of the Corporation for gross proceeds of $1,001,000 (the "Private Placement"). Each Unit consists of one common share in the capital of the Corporation (each, a "Common Share") and one-half of one Common Share purchase warrant of the Corporation (each whole Common Share purchase warrant, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share (each a "Warrant Share") at an exercise price of $1.20 per Warrant Share at any time up to 5:00 pm (Calgary time) on August 28, 2011. In the event that the 20-day volume weighted average price of the Common Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (or such other stock exchange or quotation system on which the Common Shares are listed and where a majority of the trading volume occurs), exceeds $2.50, the Corporation may, within five business days after such an event, provide notice to the holders of Warrants ("Warrantholders") of early expiry and thereafter the Warrants will expire on the date which is 30 days after the date of the notice to the Warrantholders.
The Units offered pursuant to the Private Placement were issued on the same terms as those offered pursuant to the recent public offering (the "Public Offering") by the Corporation of 56,820,000 Units and 8,523,000 Units upon the exercise of the underwriters' over-allotment option, as previously announced on August 28, 2009 and September 4, 2009, respectively.
The net proceeds of the Private Placement will be added to the proceeds from the Public Offering and will be used to fund a portion of the Corporation's exploration capital expenditure program, primarily in Colombia during the balance of 2009 and into 2010, to reduce indebtedness relating to the Corporation's reserve-backed credit facility and for working capital.
After giving effect to the Private Placement, Petrolifera now has 121,758,510 Common Shares and 33,240,250 Warrants outstanding.
Pescod sees this Nat Gas Rally As Buyer Beware
We wrote just last week about what next for natural gas, according to Bob Hoye and his team at Chart Works that had predicted a natural gas rally on September 2nd,and they’ve certainly gotten it.
Click Here For The Entire Article
QEC Running Up In Nat Gas Pump Up By Brokerages
Questerre's Utica has up to 4.28 tcf, says NSAI report
2009-09-01 06:19 ET - News Release
Mr. Anela Dido reports
QUESTERRE UTICA SHALE DISCOVERY ASSESSED AT OVER 4 TCF
Netherland, Sewell & Associates Inc. (NSAI), an independent reservoir engineering firm based in Texas, has estimated the prospective original gas in place for Questerre Energy Corp.'s Utica shale in the deep fairway in the St. Lawrence Lowlands at 150 billion cubic feet per square mile, which is 66 per cent higher than earlier industry figures. NSAI has further estimated Questerre's prospective recoverable resources to range between 2.2 trillion cubic feet to eight trillion cubic feet with a best estimate of 4.28 trillion cubic feet, equivalent to 360 million to 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Michael Binnion, president and chief executive officer of Questerre, commented: "We are very pleased the report confirms the significance of our discovery in Quebec. This is the first time we have released estimates of our Utica gas discovery.
"We took time to ensure there is significant and material technical data to support them and we have had them independently verified by a highly reputable engineering firm. The estimates relate only to our lands that have geology validated by successful wells. The independent estimates are materially higher than past industry figures which we believe reflects the additional data, technical work and advancement on the learning curve."
The company commissioned NSAI to complete an evaluation of the resource potential of the Utica shale. Using its extensive expertise evaluating other established and emerging shale plays, the evaluation includes detailed petrophysical and geologic analysis, including a review of the available core and lab analysis data. Preliminary results have been prepared in accordance with the regulations pursuant to National Instrument 51-101, standards for disclosure for oil and gas activities of the Canadian securities administrators.
The evaluation is focused on the acreage between the two main geological features, the Yamaska growth fault and Logan's Line, where Questerre holds approximately 833,000 gross acres in the deep fairway. Preliminary results include:
- Prospective original gas-in-place (OGIP) volumes for the Utica shale range between 96 billion cubic feet to 210 billion cubic feet per square mile with a best estimate of 150 billion cubic feet per square mile.
- Total prospective OGIP volumes for Questerre's gross acreage are between a low estimate of 82.7 trillion cubic feet to a high estimate of 180.5 trillion cubic feet with a best estimate of 129.2 trillion cubic feet.
- Prospective resources estimated to be recoverable for Questerre's interest range from 2.18 trillion cubic feet to eight trillion cubic feet with a best estimate of 4.28 trillion cubic feet.
The assessment is being updated to include results from the recently completed St. Edouard No. 1 well that tested at rates of 700,000 cubic feet per day from the target middle Utica interval. A final report is expected this fall. The estimates do not include the gross overriding royalty held by Questerre nor an assessment of the shallower Lorraine interval.
OGIP is not a defined term within National Instrument 51-101 and is considered equivalent to petroleum initially in place (PIIP).
We seek Safe Harbor.
