The current market decline has been more rapid than the typical bear, but it's nothing like the rate of decline that lead to the Great Depression.

The Dow now hovers just above the 8,000 level. With a long-term view in mind, an obvious question is whether the decline to date has taken us below the mean value of the index. If we plot a linear regression through the Dow since 1950, it appears that we've fallen sharply below the mean.

But time frame is everything.

If we chart the Dow since 1928, the current level appears to be a regression just slightly below the mean.

However, if we chart the Dow since 1900, the picture is less optimistic. Regression to the mean would require an additional decline to the vicinity of 5,500 to 6,000.

Note: Our Dow overview now includes a chart of 1924-1940 with a focus on the Crash of 1929. The current market decline has been more rapid than the typical bear, but it's nothing like the rate of decline that lead to the Great Depression.

Buy Energy Companies

Buy Energy Companies

DavidCockfield's boss Bill Tynkaluk is featured in this Globe article today.Bill has been in the business for 52 years and says this is the worstbear market he has seen but he believes oil prices should be reboundingwithin a few weeks. He advices people to buy oil stocks but admits if adepression is coming he will be proven wrong. He is a conservativevalue investor.

"Special to The Globe and Mail

The source: Bill Tynkaluk, president, Leon Frazer & Associates Inc.

The idea: Buy shares of major Canadian oil and gas producers.

Withoil slipping below $50 (U.S.) a barrel, this would hardly seem the timeto buy energy stocks. Indeed, oil companies are scaling backexploration and cutting production in response to the price collapse,apparently girding for a long slowdown. Even diehard energy stocksupporters are being rattled by talk of $20 oil.

But oil islikely to rebound within a few weeks, Mr. Tynkaluk says. The drop, from$147 a barrel in July, has been sharp and swift, and the bottom iscloser than many market-watchers expect, he said in an interview.

Oncethe economy recovers, tight supply will put upward pressure on prices,Mr. Tynkaluk notes. While the recovery may still appear way off in thefuture, the stock market tends to lead the underlying economy byseveral months.

And while there is much talk aboutalternative energy sources, they will take years to develop, he says.In the meantime, "people still haven't got rid of their SUVs."

Mr.Tynkaluk recommends buying shares of quality companies with strongbalance sheets and good cash flow, such as Talisman Energy Inc., NexenInc., EnCana Corp., Imperial Oil Ltd., Suncor Energy Inc. and CanadianNatural Resources Ltd.

At Friday's close, Talisman at $9.19(Canadian), is down from a 52-week high of $25.40; Nexen, $16.91, downfrom $43.45; EnCana, $48.66, down from $97.81; Imperial Oil, $35.94,down from $62.54; Suncor, $20.62, down from $73.10; and CanadianNatural, $41.61, down from $111.30.

"I think you will make a fair amount of money because when energy turns, it will turn with a vengeance," he says.

Thepayoff: Potentially large capital gains in a short period, followed bysolid longer-term gains as the world economy recovers and expandsagain.

The big risk: The economy doesn't recover and insteadfalls into a long and deep slump, something Mr. Tynkaluk thinksunlikely. "If we go into a depression, there's no question I'm going tobe wrong," he says.

The way he sees it, erstwhile growthleaders such as China, India and Brazil have plenty of money to investin their economies to keep them afloat, so demand for energy willremain strong. "They will recover before we do," he says.

Why listen to Bill Tynkaluk?

Mr.Tynkaluk has been in the investment business for 52 years. During thattime, he has seen several bear markets, so he's not as alarmed as someless-seasoned market watchers. Of all the bear markets, "this is themost vicious one," he acknowledges, if only for its relentlessness.Leon Frazer has a reputation for conservative, value investing."

FP says Suncor, others could be hit with unwanted bids

FP says Suncor, others could be hit with unwanted bids 2008-11-21 09:22 ET - In the News See In the News (C-SU) Suncor Energy Inc The Financial Post reports in its Friday edition that oil companies are flush with cash, thanks to the recent period of high energy prices, but at the same time, reinvestment in their core business has lagged.

The Post's Jonathan Ratner, writing in Trading Desk, says this could put Calgary in the middle of a consolidation wave. The world's top five oil companies finished the third quarter with $62-billion in cash and annual cash flow of $232-billion, according to Canaccord Adams. As a result, it expects an increased focus on mergers and acquisitions in the coming year.

Canada and the oil sands could get a lot of attention. Market caps of large-cap energy companies in Canada have declined more than 50 per cent since July. "We believe that major oil companies look beyond the short-term environment, particularly for assets, such as oil sands that have a 40+ year reserve life," Canaccord said.

"There will most likely be several bull market cycles for energy over that time period." Canaccord thinks Suncor, EnCana, Canadian Natural Resources, Talisman and Nexen are all vulnerable to an unsolicited takeover offer. BP, Eni and Total would be interested in Nexen's North Sea assets.

Oil moves above $50 a barrel

TheStar.com - Business -
Oil moves above $50 a barrel
November 21, 2008
Alex Kennedy
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

SINGAPORE–Oil prices rose off a three-year low, creeping above $50 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors took a cue from a rebound in regional stock markets.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up 80 cents to $50.22 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore, after falling to $48.25 earlier in the session, the lowest level since May 18, 2005.

The December contract, which expired Thursday, fell overnight by $4.00 to settle at $49.62.

"Right now, oil is just following stock market sentiment," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.

Asian stock markets initially followed their U.S. counterparts down Friday, but then rallied. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index rose 2.7 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 2.3 per cent and South Korea's key index was up 5.8 per cent.

Traders are still worried that a global recession will undermine energy demand. Already, oil prices have tumbled by two-thirds from their peak of nearly $150 a barrel in mid-July.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.6 per cent Thursday to its lowest level since March 2003 after the Labor Department said new applications for jobless benefits exceeded analyst estimates and rose to the highest level of claims since July 1992.

The S&P 500 index fell 6.7 per cent Thursday to an 11-year low. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 52 per cent below its October 2007 record, making this the second-biggest bear market on record, exceeded only by the 83 per cent drop between 1930 and 1932.

"$50 was a psychological support level," Rigby said. "Since we haven't traded this low for so long, it's hard to find a new support level."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 per cent of global supply, may cut production before its next official meeting on Dec. 17, Rigby said. OPEC President Chakib Khelil has signaled the group may announce output reductions at the meeting, but some members, such as Iran, have called for earlier cuts.

OPEC lowered production quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.

"Their revenues are dropping so much, I think OPEC will have to call an extraordinary meeting and cut quotas to try to support the market," Rigby said. "Their last cut had zero impact on the market."

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.89 cent to $1.03 a gallon. Heating oil gained 1.91 cents to $1.69 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery slid 5.9 cents to $6.26 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, December Brent crude fell 68 cents to $47.40 on the ICE Futures exchange.