QEC Fraser M. still buying Retail RBC still Selling

Credit crisis losses total $1.4-trillion -- IMF

Tuesday, October 07, 2008
WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund Tuesday increased its estimate of global losses from the financial meltdown to $1.4-trillion (U.S.) and warned that the world's economic downturn was deepening.

“Declared losses on U.S. loans and securitized assets are likely to increase further to about $1.4-trillion,” the IMF said, increasing the loss estimate from $945-billion in April and slightly up from $1.3-trillion it cited last month.

In its quarterly assessment of global capital markets, the IMF said global economic activity is slowing down as growth in advanced economies decelerates and emerging economies start to lose momentum.

“Despite better-than-expected performance early this year, rising financial turmoil has led to a downgrade in the IMF's baseline forecast for global economic growth in 2008-09,” it said.
The IMF called for a well co-ordinated response to restore confidence and to avert a more protracted economic slowdown, but warned that central banks would need to continue injecting cash to calm the unprecedented turmoil.

“The risk of a more severe adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the broader economy represents a critical threat,” the IMF said.

“The combination of mounting losses, falling asset prices, and a deepening economic downturn has caused serious doubts about the viability of a widening swath of the financial system,” it added.

Separately, a senior International Monetary Fund official said Tuesday that globally co-ordinated policy actions are needed to address the current financial crisis, but not all measures need to be exactly the same.

“Co-ordinated action can help alleviate what is now a difficult situation in financial markets,” Jaime Caruana, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, told a news conference.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Questerre On Verge Of Testing Utica Commerciality: Dundee
Dow Jones Newswires

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Questerre Energy Corp. (QEC.T) is on the verge of testing commerciality of the Utica shale play in the St. Lawrence Lowlands of Quebec, leading Dundee Securities to initiate coverage of the company at buy with a stock-price target of C$8.25.

Recent improvements in horizontal drilling and completion methods have opened up many tight reservoirs and shale plays that have previously been uneconomic, including those in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Dundee analyst Victor Rodberg said.

He added that, based on his model of the well economics of the Utica shale combined with well test data to date, he believes Questerre has the makings of a commercial project. He noted several near-term catalysts for Questerre's share price, which is at C$2.84 in Toronto Friday, up nearly 22%.

The largest near-term catalyst by far, he said, is horizontal initial production rates from Forest in the deep Utica. Drilling is underway with Forest and Rodberg expects to hear news on initial production rates in October. Additionally, Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) has recompleted a previous well with Questerre that provided an 18-day well test of the Utica but should also give us a future glimpse at the prospectivity of the Lorraine shale.

Questerre is also drilling a well with Gastem Inc. (GMR.V) to test the shallow acreage of the Utica shale. Dundee doesn't have an investment-banking relationship with Questerre, nor does Rodberg have a stake in the Calgary company. Company Web site: http://www.questerre.com -

Tara Zachariah, Dow Jones NewsWires;

(c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

TSx Dives 1000 Points + QEC Houses

QEC Agoracom Board Worth Looking At Click Here For QEC Info

Capitulation nation

Monday, October 06, 2008

As an investor, Bob Hoye is as sickened by Monday's stock market selloff as anyone. But as a professional market watcher who often delves into the historical nitty gritty, the editor and chief investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, can see an upside to the market plunge.

He noted that sharp downturns in the stock market can last 55 trading days, from start to finish.
The most recent leg of the downturn, for the Dow Jones industrial average and the S[amp]amp;P 500, began in late August. That[amp]nbsp;means that this one may near its conclusion toward the end of October.

History also suggests that if you suffer through a stock market disaster in the autumn, the volatility will usually conclude – again – before the end of the October.
Third, his firm has an in-house model, using six parameters, which gives them a signal of capitulation for the Dow and the S[amp]amp;P 500. If the model sends another downward signal this week, it will show a capitulation level seen only eight times since 1900.

“It looks like this week is going to be down,” said Mr. Hoye, a long-time bear. “When we conclude this signal, the rebound can be within a week or a maybe another week after that. But the rebound is inevitable.”

[amp]nbsp;
© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Stocks in freefall as financial crisis spreads

STEVE LADURANTAYE
Monday, October 06, 2008
Stocks in Toronto plunged Monday, joining a global selloff sparked by concerns about a $700-billion (U.S.) bailout package for the U.S. financial sector and the spreading bank crisis in Europe and Asia.

The S&P/TSX - down 11 per cent earlier in the session - lost 5.95 per cent, or 642.32 points, to 10,161.03 by 11:45 a.m. (ET). The index last closed below 10,000 July 4, 2005.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded 4.38 per cent lower, down 452 points to 9,873.38 – the first time it has traded below 10,000 since April 2005. The S&P 500 fell 4.70 per cent, or 51.68 points, to 1,047.55.

“Breaking below 10,000 is a psychologically significant thing for investors,” said Kenneth Norquay, a partner at CastleMoore Inc., a portfolio-management company in Oakville, Ont. “Those big round numbers – like $1,000 gold, 10,000 on the indexes – can become very important as benchmarks. Just how important, I guess we're about to find out.”
The energy sector – which is weighted second behind financials on the S&P/TSX, fell 9.5 per cent in morning trade as oil slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time since April. It touched $88.99 a barrel early in the session, but recouped some losses to trade at $90.82 – still a loss of $3.06.

“The Canadian market is going to keep getting lower because of the effect of commodities,” said Brandon Osten, president of Venator Capital Management Inc. in Toronto. “Get the hell out of commodities - it's not too late for you. Oil can go back to $65 a barrel. Any out there who thinks $90 oil is low by historical levels needs to take another look.”

No sector was untouched – utilities and health care were each off about 7 per cent, industrials fell 5.6 per cent and consumer staples 6.8 per cent. Technology was faring the best, down 1.12 per cent.

The American bailout plan was created to get banks lending to each other again, after the subprime-mortgage crisis wreaked havoc on American financial markets.
The U.S. government was forced to take over mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in September to protect $5-trillion in mortgages, and also rescued insurer AIG Corp. with an $85-billion investment.

Meanwhile, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. was taken over, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley restructured into depository institutions.
The ripple effects extended deeper into Europe over the weekend, with Germany bailing out Hypo Real Estate AG, and France's BNP Paribas throwing a lifeline to financial group Fortis. The European Central Bank flooded markets with $50-billion Monday, while the Bank of England contributed another $10-billion.

Losses on major indexes around the world Monday included 4.5 per cent drops in China and Japan, a 5 per cent drop in London, and a 5.1 per cent drop in Germany. Norway's commodity-heavy index was off 9.95 per cent.

“There are worries rushing round the banking sector as markets try to account for the potential disparity that could be seen in savers' trust in deposit accounts and the knock on effect this will potentially have on the viability of institutions,” said London-based CMC Markets dealer Jimmy Yates. “All told it's not looking pretty and it does seem as if we may now have to resign ourselves to seeing further casualties along the way.”

More to come
© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Global markets shaken by new bank woes

TheStar.com - Business - Global markets shaken by new bank woes

KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERS
Share trader Dirk Mueller reacts as he stands in front of the German share prize index DAX board on the trading floor of the Frankfurt stock exchange, October 6, 2008.

WALL ST POISED TO DROP
U.S. stock index futures slid Monday as concerns about the widening fallout from the credit crisis fueled a global equities sell-off and bank rescues in Europe heightened fears about the stability of major financial institutions.

S&P 500 futures dropped 27.70 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures slid 219 points and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 33.25 points.
Financial firms, oil, drag down global bourses

October 06, 2008 EMILY FLYNN VENCATAssociated Press

LONDON–Asian and European stock markets plunged Monday as government bank bailouts in the U.S. and Europe failed to alleviate fears that the global financial crisis would depress world economic growth.

Investors took scant comfort from Washington's passage of a $700 billion plan to buy bad assets from banks and other institutions to shore up the financial industry on Friday because of the uncertainty still hanging over the details of the deal and the degree to which it will help.
Britain's benchmark stock index, the FTSE 100, lost 220.11 to 4,760.14 – a 4.42 per cent fall. The declines were led by the banking industry, with the mining and oil industries also suffering drops. HBOS PLC's share price dropped 15.7 per cent, while the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC fell 13.6 per cent.

Germany's DAX index fell 4.22 per cent to 5,552.27. France's CAC-40 index dropped 4.85 per cent to 3,882.81. In Russia, the RTS stock index tumbled more than 7 per cent in first 20 minutes of trading.

Over the weekend, many European governments moved to save troubled banks, and made more promises to protect depositors from the credit crisis.

Germany on Sunday agreed a $68 billion package to bail out Hypo Real Estate, the country's second-biggest commercial property lender, after a rescue plan by private lenders fell apart.
France's BNP Paribas SA committed to taking a 75 per cent stake in troubled European bank Fortis, and Sweden and Denmark followed Ireland and Britain in raising the amount of savers' deposits guaranteed by the government.

Britain's treasury chief Alistair Darling said he was "ready to do whatever it takes" to get the country through the credit crunch, and was looking at a "range of proposals."

But analysts said that, like the U.S. plan, the lack of detail in many of Europe's moves failed to restore investors' confidence, resulting in the stock market tumbles. "What the markets need are some more details about exactly when and how these plans are going to come in," said Richard Hunter, head of British equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers, "And they need some proof that some of these measures are taking hold."

Across Asia, all markets were also in the red. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell to its lowest level in 4.5 years, sinking 4.25 per cent to 10,473.09.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slid 5 per cent to 16,803.76. Markets in mainland China, Australia, South Korea, India, Singapore and Thailand also fell sharply. Indonesia's key index plummeted 10 per cent, it's biggest one-day drop ever.

"Everyone is losing confidence," said Mark Tan, who helps manage about $20 billion of equities and bonds at UOB Asset Management in Singapore. "The problem now is that the lack of foreign confidence could affect the Asian consumer, which would lead to a bigger slowdown in Asia than expected."

"This credit crunch looks like it's not going away any time soon," said Alex Tang, head of research at brokerage Core Pacific-Yamaichi in Hong Kong. "Apart from a credit crunch in Europe, investors are quite concerned about the worsening outlook on the U.S. economy."
Investors appeared spooked by a series of developments out of Europe over the weekend.
Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme said Sunday that France's BNP Paribas SA had committed to taking a 75 per cent stake in troubled European bank Fortis NV. British treasury chief Alistair Darling also said he was ready to take "pretty big steps that we wouldn't take in ordinary times" to help the country weather the credit crunch.

The outlook for the U.S. economy darkened after figures released Friday showed that 159,000 jobs in the U.S. were lost last month, the fastest pace in more than five years.

Such concerns overshadowed any investor optimism over the U.S. House of Representatives' approval Friday of a massive bailout plan that will allow the U.S. government to buy distressed mortgages and securities backed by mortgages from banks and other financial institutions.
Investors questioned how long it would take for the package to unfreeze credit markets, restore bank lending and generally shore up the U.S. economy.

"The market had already figured in the package's passage," said Yukio Takahashi at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo. "There are strong doubts about its implementation."
Japanese financial companies and industries dependent on exports, such as steel, were especially hard hit Monday. Nippon Steel Corp. stock tumbled 9.8 per cent, while Mizuho Financial Group was down 8.3 per cent in morning trading.

Trading in mainland China resumed after a weeklong holiday break with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index sinking 5.2 per cent to 2,173.
Banks and other financial shares saw heavy declines. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank fell 7 per ent and Bank of China slipped 3.6.

Shares of Ping An Insurance Co. rose even after it said Monday it will record a $2.3 billion loss on its stake in European bank Fortis in the biggest blow yet to a Chinese institution from the global credit crisis. Ping An's shares were up 1.6 per cent.

U.S. stock index futures were nearly 2 per cent lower, suggesting Wall Street would open lower Monday. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 157.47, or 1.5 per cent, to 10,325.38 on Friday.
In currencies, the euro slid to $1.3570 from $1.3774 late Friday. But the U.S. dollar was weaker against the yen, falling to 103.66 from 105.30 yen late Friday.

Oil prices tumbled on speculation that slower global growth will cut crude demand. Light, sweet crude for November delivery was down $3.23 to $90.65 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bank heist accused is investment firm VP

GTA - Bank heist accused is investment firm VP


PHOTO SUPPLIED
Wanted man is believed 28 to 35 years old, solidly built and wears prescription glasses.
'Shocked' company launches probe of client accounts October 05, 2008 Nick AvelingStaff Reporter

A man who policed the day-to-day operations of a financial institution has been accused of being one of the country's most prolific bank robbers, known as the Exchange Bandit.

Kevin John Pinto, the 37-year-old vice-president of compliance at a Toronto investment firm, turned himself in Friday after the Canadian Bankers Association posted a $10,000 reward for his capture. He has been charged with 10 counts of robbery.

Pinto was one of two compliance staff at Paradigm Capital, an investment firm with offices in Toronto and Calgary. He was responsible for providing oversight and ensuring the firm's trading activities complied with regulatory requirements. Although compliance officers sometimes have legal backgrounds, Pinto does not, said company CEO David Roland.

Pinto had previously worked for National Bank.
"We're obviously extremely shocked," said Roland. "This is just an extremely unfortunate thing."

Paradigm Capital released a statement on its website Friday afternoon announcing that Pinto had been suspended and his case had been passed on to "relevant regulatory authorities."

Roland said Paradigm has also launched its own investigation. "We have no reason whatsoever to believe that any of our records, securities or client funds have in any way been compromised," said Roland. "We'll focus the investigation to make sure there's absolutely no chance that has happened."

A suspect had been wanted for at least 21 robberies – in Toronto, Peel, Kitchener, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls – dating to 2003.

The "Exchange Bandit's" most recent heist took place Sept. 12 at a Scotiabank on King St. W., just minutes from Paradigm's offices.

The suspect was given the nickname for his habit of exchanging words with a teller before producing a holdup note and warning that he was armed.

Pinto appeared briefly in court at Old City Hall yesterday morning. His bail hearing was moved to tomorrow. Police expect more charges from other regions.