World oil prices fall to $59

With all three Detroit-based automakers in dire straits and seeking a Washington bailout, the moment finally has arrived for a radical reinvention of America's domestically owned auto industry. Which means letting the Detroit Three reorganize under bankruptcy protection, from which several smaller, more nimble and competitive firms would emerge, no longer prisoner to Detroit's hidebound, century-old decision-making traditions.
To bail out Detroit is not to rescue the U.S. auto industry, despite how the CEOs of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC continue to misrepresent the federal bailout they seek.

Source

From credit crunch to energy crisis?

From credit crunch to energy crisis?

SHAWN McCARTHY
Wednesday, November 12, 2008

OTTAWA — Global oil companies are sowing the seeds of a new supply crisis and a return to record-high prices by cutting back on current investments in response to the global slowdown, the International Energy Agency warns.

Four months ago, economists warned of “demand destruction” as record prices and a slumping economy slowed the growth of global crude consumption. But now, the IEA is worried about “supply destruction” as producers delay expensive projects, including some in Canada's oil sands, that would bring much-needed supplies to market.

“We think that the investment decisions that are being made now are of crucial importance, not only to meet future growth in demand, but to compensate for the decline in existing fields,” the agency's chief economist, Fatih Birol, said in an interview.

“If the investments are postponed, which is happening now, [then] when the demand rebounds we will see a supply crunch which may exceed the situation we saw this summer.”

Mr. Birol noted that producers across the globe – from multinationals tapping Canada's oil sands to national oil companies operating in the Middle East – have been cutting back their capital budgets as oil prices slumped from record highs this summer to a 20-month low Tuesday of $59.33 (U.S.) a barrel.

In a report released Wednesday, the Paris-based agency – which advises rich countries on energy policies – warned that the world's energy system is on an unsustainable path that could lead to both oil shortages and, eventually, in “catastrophic and irreversible damage” to the planet's climate.

To meet rising energy demand over the next 22 years, the industry would have to invest a minimum of $26-trillion – half of which is needed just to maintain current levels by replacing declining oil fields and aging power plants.

The IEA projects oil demand will climb to 106 million barrels a day in 2030, from 85 million barrels today. Despite concerns raised by some economists that the world has reached peak oil production, the agency said there is plenty of oil available to meet that rising demand, so long as the investments are made to boost productive capacity.

It expects prices to rebound from their current level of about $60 a barrel to average more than $100 between 2008 and 2015, rising to $200 by 2030.

That longer-term bullish outlook is widely shared in the industry. In Calgary yesterday, an executive at Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. agreed that prices will rebound once the economy turns around. “I'm quite optimistic that once we get over the current financial crisis we will get back to having healthy demand,” said Réal Cusson, the company's senior vice-president for marketing.

Still, Canadian Natural has slashed its investment budget by nearly half in response to slumping crude prices, notably by delaying planned expansions in the oil sands.

“There's definitely capital expenditure cutbacks happening among oil and gas companies of all sizes,” said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at ARC Financial Corp. in Calgary. Mr. Tertzakian said companies are proceeding with projects that are near completion, but are postponing any new developments.

“We may take comfort in the low prices we are seeing today but the lower the prices go, the less expenditure you are going to see. And then two years from now, when we're out of this [economic] mess, that is when you'll see the problems on the supply side.”

Virtually all the growth in oil consumption will occur outside the leading industrialized countries of the 30-member Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

With files from reporter Norval Scott in Calgary

AGENCY CALLS FOR ‘ENERGY REVOLUTION'

The world is hurtling down an energy path that will lead to “catastrophic and irreversible” damage to the planet's climate unless the United States and China lead in a “major de-carbonization” of global energy supplies, the International Energy Agency says.

In a report to be released today, the IEA says that under a “business as usual” scenario, greenhouse gas emissions will rise 35 per cent between 2005 and 2030, a track that would lead to a 6 degree Celsius increase in average global temperatures by the end of the century.

“What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution,” said the agency, which advises rich nations on energy policy.

The United States and China are the leading emitters of greenhouse gases in the world – with the U.S. as the largest source per capita and China representing the fastest growth in emissions. As a result, both will have to show a leadership role when countries meet in Copenhagen a year from now to negotiate a climate change deal for the post-2012 period. (The Kyoto Protocol contained no commitments beyond that year.) The IEA said the world will need to spend some $4-trillion (U.S.) over the next 22 years for conservation and energy-efficient technologies, such as low-carbon sources of energy and carbon capture and storage. But the resulting reduction in energy use could actually save $7-trillion, it added. Shawn McCarthy

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Markets close to bottom: CIBC

Markets close to bottom: CIBC

STEVE LADURANTAYE
Tuesday, November 11, 2008

With interbank lending showing “signs of life,” there are signs that stock markets have reached their bottom and the rest of the year will unfold without another meltdown, CIBC World Markets said in a report released Tuesday.

“With credit and liquidity fears abating somewhat, concern is rapidly shifting to one of the other key factors clouding prospects for a heavily resource-weighted TSX, the troubled global economy,” chief economist Jeff Rubin commented.

Mr. Rubin also cited China's massive stimulus package, which he said could boost the country's economic growth by up to 3 per cent over the next two years. He also pointed out the United States is poised to bring in another stimulus plan.

“We are cautiously optimistic that we can ride out the balance of the year without any further systemic shocks,” Mr. Rubin said.

Still, he said, the “building blocks” for a sustained rally in stocks are not firmly in place, even though it “seems safe to assume that a grim economic outlook is already well priced into valuations.”

“Our 12,000 target for the TSX composite next year would represent only a typically paced recovery, benchmarked to past cyclical yardsticks,” he said. “It is certainly consistent with the three-year period it has taken to fully reverse comparable percentage declines, although the rapidity of today's crash may suggest, given the speed of market reactions, a more rapid recovery when the news brightens.”

The S&P/TSX was trading around 9,415 Tuesday morning, down 2.82 per cent or 273.60 points, as oil fell near a 20-month low of $60 a barrel. The Dow Jones industrial average was off 2.78 per cent, of 246.27, to 8.624.27. The S&P 500 fell 2.81 per cent, or 25.82 points, to 893.39.

David Baskin, the Toronto-based president of Baskin Financial Services, said investors need to take a step back and realize that the last five weeks actually haven't been that terrible. The S&P/TSX closed trading on Oct. 9 at 9,600 – on Tuesday, it also opened around 9,600.

“It feels as if we've been through worse than that,” said Mr. Baskin, who manages client assets of about $400-million. “We've gone through the ups and downs, but the fact of the matter is, if you look at the numbers, it's remarkable that all of those losses were really in the first week of October.”

Mr. Baskin said the most positive development in recent weeks has been the change in the London interbank offered rate, or Libor rate. It has fallen from its highs, which means banks are lending to each other again after pulling back in light of a credit crisis that forced Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and forced world governments to injection hundreds of billions of dollars into their economies to keep financial markets operating.

“If you look at the Libor, it's gone almost straight down for 17 days in a row,” he said. “It's been incremental, but it should provide some comfort that the banking situation is in hand, though obviously it's not quite cured yet. But at least we don't need to worry about a systematic collapse, and hopefully we've gotten past thoughts of the world coming to an end.”

Fourth-quarter earnings, Mr. Baskin said, will be disappointing when they are released in January. But, the market may have already priced in a lot of the bad news.

“Assume earnings are down 30 per cent,” he said. “The market has been down more than that. If you're a stock owner, you need to force yourself to look past the immediate negativity and discount the headlines. We are trading where we were a month ago, and to me that would indicate we've found a floor.”

Danielle Park, a Barrie, Ont.-based portfolio manager for Venable Park, pulled all of her clients out of the market in May. She's still 92 per cent in cash and bonds, but has stepped lightly back into the market.

“At the end of October, markets were heavily over-sold on our measurements and so we thought and still think a bounce of a few weeks or months may well be in order,” she said. “We are thinking that if we do see a rally take shape over the next few weeks it may be only for a trade before the indices break down again into the spring... We are tactical and watching very careful for signals as to the next phase. We think it is no time yet to make big, bold bets long or short.”



© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Anonymous Dumping Shares TLM+QEC+But Not In HOU Houses

HOU:TSX

Oil Bull Ready To Run Higher On Oil Moves North Of $60.00

Oil dips below $59

Oil dips below $59
Investors look past China's stimulus plan as economic concerns and waning demand dominate.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: November 11, 2008: 12:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The price for a barrel of crude oil fell below the psychologically important $60 level Tuesday morning as investors looked past China's massive economic stimulus plan to focus on weak global demand and a stronger dollar.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down $3.51 at $58.90 a barrel in New York. On Monday, oil rose $1.37 to settle at $62.41 a barrel.

The price of oil has fallen about 60% from July's all-time high above $147 a barrel on fears that global economic weakness will continue to undermine demand for gasoline and other petroleum products.

Demand concerns were briefly tempered Tuesday after the Chinese government announced a $586 billion plan to boost economic activity in one of the world's key consumers of oil. But investors now appear less optimistic about the plan, which will take time to implement, as the outlook for global economic growth remains cloudy.

"Yesterday's trade rebounded sharply higher at the open based on the Chinese stimulus package," said Tom Pawlicki, oil industry analyst at MF Global in Chicago. "In our opinion, however, the rally was too enthusiastic for the news."

Pawlicki points out that the package will provide "only" $14.6 billion in the current quarter, with the remaining amount disbursed over the next two years. He added that the plan's spending on housing and infrastructure may not provide the desired economic effect.

"The problem is that there is already a housing glut in China, and the infrastructure will likely rebuild the earthquake devastated area in Sichuan rather than create much new expansion," Pawlicki said.

Global markets: The oil market is also being pressured by falling stock prices worldwide.

Stocks in the United States were lower on recession fears. The Dow Jones industrial average was down about 3% roughly two hours into the session.

Major indexes in Europe were all lower in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 was down 3.2%, and France's CAC-40 was 4.5% lower. The DAX in Germany was down 5.2% as well.

The declines in Europe followed a slump in Asia, where Japan's benchmark Nikkei index dropped 3%. In Seoul, the KOSPI fell about 2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed 4.8%.

Oil traders have closely tracked world stock markets to assess the severity of what many economists say is a looming global recession. As a result, oil prices often fall when stock prices retreat.

Dollar: The price of oil was also pushed lower by a stronger U.S. dollar, which rallied on the back of the global stock selloff.

The dollar rose 1.5% against the euro to $1.2562 in New York. Against the British pound, the greenback was up 1.2% at $1.5426.

Investors often buy oil and other commodities to hedge against a weaker dollar and sell those assets when the dollar rises. And a more robust buck makes oil, which is priced in dollars, less attractive to overseas buyers.

A grim outlook: Markets in the United States have been under pressure as rising unemployment, anemic consumer spending and weak corporate results threaten to tip the nation into a deep recession.

Last week, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy has lost 1.2 million jobs so far this year. As the job market deteriorates, many American households have cut back on spending.

Auto sales fell to a 25-year low in October as tight credit conditions and the weak economy kept consumers out of showrooms. At the same time, retail sales declined a larger-than-expected 0.7% in October, prompting concerns about the all-important holiday gift-buying period.

This reluctance to spend has a ripple effect on the broader economy, since consumer spending makes up more than 70% of U.S. gross domestic product.

In the third quarter, GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3%, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That came after an increase of 2.8% in second-quarter GDP.

Many economists are predicting GDP will shrink again in the fourth quarter. Two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is one of the classic definitions of a recession.

Gasoline: Retail gas prices fell for the 55th day in a row.

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline came down another 2 cents overnight to $2.220, according to a daily survey by the American Automobile Association.

Tuesday's national average is down 46%, or $1.89, from the record high price of $4.114 that AAA reported on July 17. To top of page
First Published: November 11, 2008: 8:39 AM ET

Crude Oil Falls as IEA May Cut Demand Forecast a Third Month

Crude Oil Falls as IEA May Cut Demand Forecast a Third Month

By Mark Shenk

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell on speculation the International Energy Agency will lower its 2009 oil-demand forecast as slowing economic growth cuts fuel consumption.

The IEA, which coordinates energy policy in 28 developed countries, will reduce the estimated growth in global demand for a third month in a report tomorrow, according to four former IEA analysts. The euro-area economy will probably contract 0.7 percent next year, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

``It all comes back to the economy and how deep folks think the recession will be,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``Demand is poor and should get worse as the recession deepens.''

Crude oil for December delivery declined $2.79, or 4.5 percent, to $59.62 a barrel at 9:44 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which have tumbled 60 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 38 percent from a year ago.

``The view of the market is very pessimistic,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The only news I foresee that can move prices higher is a cold spell, which would boost heating oil demand, and that would have only limited impact.''

The IEA already has cut its 2008 forecast about 1.3 million barrels a day in seven revisions this year. Last week, it published a summary of its annual World Energy Outlook, slashing its 2030 projection by 9.4 percent to 106 million.

OPEC Concerns

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cited falling demand for its Oct. 24 decision to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day. OPEC ministers will discuss the market situation when they meet next on Dec. 17 and may agree to another supply cut then, the group's president, Chakib Khelil, said on Nov. 8 in Algiers.

``This is a tough time for OPEC because of the demand picture,'' Mueller said. ``Every time they cut production they are building up spare capacity. There's also a risk that they may make cuts and prices still won't rebound.''

Global stock markets declined as Credit Suisse Group AG said developed economies are headed for the worst recession since 1945. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 18.61 points, or 2 percent, to 900.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 165.43, or 1.9 percent, to 8,705.11.

``Prices are lower because of sagging global equities as well as the view that China's stimulus package is insufficient to prop oil demand in the face of a prolonged global economic slowdown,'' Armstrong said.

On Nov. 9, the Chinese government pledged spending to sustain economic growth through 2010 and switched to a ``relatively loose'' monetary policy. China is the world's fourth-biggest economy and the second-biggest consumer of oil.

U.S. Inventories

U.S. crude-oil supplies probably rose for a seventh week as imports rebounded, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed. Stockpiles probably increased 750,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 7 from 311.9 million the week before, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report this week.

Gasoline stockpiles probably increased 200,000 barrels from 196.1 million barrels the week before, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1 million barrels from 127.8 barrels the week before, the survey showed.

The department is scheduled to release its weekly report on Nov. 13 at 11 a.m. in Washington. The report is being delayed by a day because of today's Veterans Day holiday.

Brent crude oil for December settlement decreased $3.06, or 5.2 percent, to $56.02 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Futures touched $55.86, the lowest since Jan. 30, 2007.

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At noon: Goodbye, gains

Monday, November 10, 2008

U.S. stocks surrendered all of their gains as trading approached the midway point on Monday, with investors growing more concerned about the impact of a slowing economy.

At noon, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 13 points, to 8931. At the start of trading, the index had been up more than 200 points on an upbeat reaction to China's efforts to stimulate its economy with $586-billion (U.S.) worth of infrastructure spending and tax deductions. The broader S[amp]amp;P 500 fell 3 points, to 928.

Financials fell 3 per cent, utilities fell 2.3 per cent and consumer discretionary stocks fell 1.9 per cent.

Investors looked inward as the morning progressed and didn't like what they saw. Deutsche Bank downgraded General Motors Corp. to a “sell” recommendation along with a $0 price target – suggesting the stock was dead. Plus, analysts at Barclays Capital said that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. would report its first loss as a publicly traded company when it releases its fourth-quarter results next month. Barclays predicted Goldman Sachs would lose $2.50 a share.

Meanwhile, electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. filed for bankruptcy and the U.S. government unveiled a new plan to help American International Group Inc., this one raising the bailout to $150-billion from $123-billion previously.

In Canada, the S[amp]amp;P/TSX composite index fared better – though also down from earlier highs – thanks to rising commodity prices. The index was up 124 points, or 1.3 per cent, to 9720.

Materials stocks were up 3 per cent, energy stocks were up 2.3 per cent, industrials were up 1.3 per cent and financials were up 0.8 per cent.

[amp]nbsp;

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

HOU-T Oil Bull ETF The Way To Pure Play Oil Rise

TLM Houses

Alberta Tax=investment is leaving the province

Globe says analyst agrees with Talisman, others on tax
2008-11-10 07:01 ET - In the News
Also In the News (C-CNQ) Canadian Natural Resources Ltd

The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that investment dealer FirstEnergy Capital Corp. has added its voice to the growing chorus of industry complaints that Alberta's new oil and gas royalty scheme is driving spending elsewhere. The Globe's Norval Scott quotes FirstEnergy analyst Robert Fitzmartyn in a research note as saying,

"There is strong evidence ... to suggest that investment is leaving the province." Mr. Fitzmartyn cites a drop in Crown land sales and flat drilling rig counts since the new royalty scheme was announced. Last week alone, major producers Talisman Energy and Canadian Natural Resources have indicated they will reallocate capital spending from oil and gas exploration in Alberta to opportunities outside of the province.

Some oil sands projects have also been delayed as producers fret over the economics of proposed multibillion-dollar investments, especially given that the financial crisis has pushed crude oil prices down from $147 (U.S.) a barrel in July to around $60 (U.S.).

The reallocation of capital means Alberta is unlikely to recoup the additional $1.4-billion in revenues it has said the higher royalties will create, according to Mr. Fitzmartyn.

World In Trouble When China Anties Up Billions To Stimulate Economy

LAN WHEATLEY

Reuters

November 9, 2008 at 9:43 AM EST

BEIJING — China has approved a 4-trillion yuan ($586-billion) government spending package to boost domestic demand and help the world's fourth-largest economy ride out the global credit crisis, Xinhua news agency said on Sunday.

The State Council, or cabinet, also announced a shift to a "moderately easy" monetary policy, possibly foreshadowing further reductions in borrowing costs on top of three interest rate cuts made since mid-September.

The People's Bank of China had already relaxed its monetary stance to "prudent and flexible" from "tight" in the summer as inflation crested and economic growth started to slow.

"With the deepening of the global financial crisis over the past two months, the government must take flexible and prudent macro-economic policies to deal with the complex and changing situation," according to a statement relayed by Xinhua.

Officials have been flagging measures to pump up demand since gross domestic product growth slowed unexpectedly sharply to 9.0 per cent in the third quarter from 10.4 per cent in the first half.

Economic conditions took a further turn for the worse in October. Still, economists were impressed by the size of the stimulus package, which amounts to about 14 per cent of annual economic output spread over little more than two years.

"This is pretty major," said Arthur Kroeber, head of Dragonomics, a Beijing economic consultancy.

"It reflects the official view of how serious this problem is and shows that this is a government that can mobilize enormous resources to stimulate the economy when they put their minds to it," Mr. Kroeber said.

By comparison, to boost demand after the Asian financial crisis Beijing issued infrastructure bonds in 1998 worth just 1.2 per cent of GDP.

Xinhua did not say how the 10-point plan would be financed, but China can afford to spend freely. It ran a consolidated budget surplus in the first half of the year of more than $170-billion.

Year-on-year tax revenue growth has since dwindled to just 3 per cent on the back of a sharp drop in corporate profits, but domestic Treasury debt is just 16 per cent of gross domestic product, Mr. Kroeber said.

The announcement of the spending programe, decided at a cabinet meting on Wednesday, coincided with meetings in Sao Paulo of finance ministers and central bank chiefs to learn lessons from the financial turmoil and discuss how to support growth.

"As long as we adopt the correct policies and measures in a timely and decisive manner to seize opportunities and cope with challenges, we will definitely be able to maintain stable and fairly fast economic growth," the cabinet said.

As part of an "active" fiscal policy, Xinhua said investments would be targeted at roads, railways and airports across China as well as social welfare and other key areas.

Money would also be poured into affordable housing, rural infrastructure, the power grid, environmental protection and technical innovation, Xinhua said.

Mr. Kroeber said a lot would depend on what proportion of the package is funnelled towards boosting wages and spending to help wean the economy off unsustainably rapid investment, which has been the main driver of China's double-digit growth over the past five years.

"How much of it will be good old tried-and-true building bridges, and how much will be put into income and consumption support measures that are arguably more beneficial?" he asked

Underlining the need to boost capital spending "swiftly and forcefully", it said China would invest an additional 100 billion yuan in national infrastructure this quarter.

With another 20-billion yuan brought forward from next year's budget for post-disaster reconstruction, nationwide investment this quarter would reach 400-billion yuan, Xinhua said.

The cabinet also confirmed a long-awaited change in the way value added tax (VAT) is calculated. Companies will be able to deduct the cost of capital equipment when working out their VAT bills, saving them about 120-billion yuan a year, Xinhua said.

"The adjustment in the global economy is bringing new opportunities for us to speed up the upgrading of our economic structures and introduce advanced foreign technology and personnel," the cabinet said.

QEC Technicals + More

TLM Stochastics - Globe says let Talisman work magic on your portfolio

Globe says let Talisman work magic on your portfolio

2008-11-06 07:13 ET - In the NewsThe Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Nov. 6, edition that Talisman Energy shed 46 cents Wednesday on the Toronto Stock Exchange to close at $12.18. The Globe's Allan Robinson writes in the Eye On Equities column the stock has a one-year range of $9.27 to $25.40.

UBS Securities Canada analyst Andrew Potter says Talisman Energy could increase the number of drill rigs in operation on its Montney natural gas play in British Columbia and Alberta from two to 12 by mid-2009. It is also expected to reduce exploration for conventional natural gas.Mr. Potter maintains the stock at "buy" with a price target of $19. Portfolio Management managing director Norman Levine recommended buying Talisman in The Globe's BNN Market Call column on Sept. 9 when it was trading at $16.85.

He said Talisman was trading at a discount. Sprung and Co. Investment Counsel president Michael Spring was keen on Talisman in the BNN column on June 27 when it was trading at $22.13. Blackmont Capital analyst Menno Hulshof targeted Talisman at $28 in The Globe on June 12. It was then trading at $24.54. Citigroup analyst Gil Yang rated Talisman "buy" in The Globe on March 27. It was then trading at $17.64.

TLM-T Toronto

Bullish Match Percent: 6% (1 of 18)
Oversold Fast Stochastic(5)

TLM-NEW York USA

InvestTools Review

INVESTools (SWIM), according to their most recent 10-k calls themselves "a leader in investor education," helping users achieve their goals by using the "INVESTools method."The company consists of four subsidiaries including ZiaSun, Telescan, and SES Acquisition Corp., and Prophet Financial Systems. INVESTools recently acquired retail broker Think or Swim, rated highly by Barron's (.pdf), for what that is worth.

Business Strategy

The company's business strategy raises concern, and their products are gimmicky and misleading. INVESTools products and services are built around "a 5-Step Investing Formula that is designed to teach both experienced and beginning investors how to approach the stock selection process and actively manage their investment portfolios.

" The stated end goal for INVESTool customers is to "take control of their financial futures," just like every other infomercial I have seen. Investools courses range from a basic 5-step course to the laughable "Master Investor Program," and "Program of High Distinction." However, if INVESTools customers are truly interested in learning about financial markets instead of falling victim to another get rich quick infomercial, why don't they sign up for a course at their local university, consider a career change to the financial services industry, or visit their local library, which costs nothing. INVESTools' management team should not kid themselves into thinking that their product is somehow unique, special, or proprietary.

Sources of Revenue

According to the company's 10-k, revenue comes from (i) the initial sale of the company's products and services as a result of marketing efforts across multiple acquisition channels which include, but are not limited to, television, print, postal mail, radio, online banner, paid and organic search and email direct marketing campaigns driving customers to either a free preview of investor education products offered at locations near the prospect or the opportunity to speak with a telesales representative about the products offered; and (ii) the additional sale of products and services to graduates as a result of continued interaction with us in workshops, periodic email and direct mail communications and through access to coaches and instructors.

In a nutshell, revenues for the INVESTools' segment come from continued marketing efforts.
Holes in the INVESTools Story
I believe that when the company's customers start to realize that this product does not work after several diligent efforts to get rich quick with INVESTools, the company's business model will crumble. The large increase in earnings growth is mainly a result of the ThinkorSwim acquisition in February, which provided $32.586 million during Q307 in additional revenue, and increased revenue for nine months ended September 30, 2007 of $69.441 million, with both increases coming from an easy comp base of zero. Comps for the investor education segment were actually down yoy Q307 by 20%, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 were down by 13%.

Bottom Line

With what appears to be growth mainly from the ThinkOrSwim acquisition, the quality of INVESTools' earnings must come into question. Although ThinkOrSwim may be a viable brokerage business, management needs to divest or liquidate their investor education unit and focus on the ThinkOrSwim segment, or risk wasting valuable resources on basically an infomercial business that is not viable long term.

Management's exit strategy should be to continue to grow ThinkOrSwim before selling out to a strategic acquirer such as TD Ameritrade due to the intense competition and commoditization in the brokerage industry. However, this appears unlikely based on CEO Mr.Lee Barba's comments to SeekingAlpha.com contributor Joseph Citarella.

With a fairly successful career on Wall Street managing the global trading business of Banker's Trust, as well as stints at Paine Webber and Lehman Brothers, it's astonishing that Mr. Barba can't see the weaknesses in his own company's business model.

and this comment:

"Successful 'blackbox' programs naturally have diminishing returns as they gain popularity. However, Investools is not another 'blackbox'. I'm sure your familiar with simple technical analysis like stochastic oscillators, MACD, and support and resistance. All Investools 'blackbox' does is teach students to interpret technical signals on stocks. They also provide filters and screens to make sure students trade fundamentally sound or momentum stocks. Yes, a willing person can educate themselves for a fraction of the cost. Investools, however, is a master at convincing not only blue-collar Americans, but also extremely smart doctors and professionals to shell out $5,000-$20,000 for the investment education. With the opportunity cost alone of the fee you need a lot of winning trades to recoup those fees. At the conferences, I've seen people pay with 4 different credit cards believing they had finally found the easy money in life. IMO Investools is one of the most unethical companies listed on the major exchanges. "

Source

And this review

Investools Review - Am I making Money with Investools
So the big question is am I making money with Investools and has the course paid for itself? Looking at my account balance since I had the ah moment indicates that I am on the right track and will very soon have made enough to pay for the course. Do I still have losing trades? Of course. Every thing I have read and experienced would indicate that losing trades are just part of trading. The trick is to determine how to properly manage the trade.

http://www.knispo-guide-to-stock-trading.com/investools-reviews.html

When USA Prints Money This Is The Possible Result

Oil price and the $700B bailout by Steve Austin - 2008/10/06

As the US house of representatives voted to increase the dollar supply by $700B, many are wondering what effect this will have on energy prices.

History is full of tragic examples where helicopter money triggered rampant inflation and widespread economic hardship. Let's take a look at some of these examples in the light of today:

Crushed by World War One's debt, the Weimar republic kept printing money and giving it directly to consumers and businesses to buy votes and help them cope with ever increasing prices.Within a few years the Mark had devaluated so much that a postage stamp cost fifty billion Mark and everyone's life savings had been wiped out. Mark bills were worth less than the paper they were printed on. As the famous picture above illustrates, in the face of galloping energy prices, it had become cheaper to heat one's house by burning money than coal. Although one US dollar is still worth more than the paper it is printed on, as of 2008 one US penny contains 2 cents worth of metal.

Although oil prices seem high today, they are kept artificially low because many oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia peg their currencies to the US dollar. When the dollar is devaluated, these countries currencies and national economies are threatened by inflation and this is an incentive for them to let their currencies float and appreciate. In 2006 Kuwait unpegged its currency from the US dollar and as other oil-producing nations follow suit, expect energy prices to rise.

Currently oil is bought and sold on the world market in dollars, so everyone needs to first buy dollars in order to buy oil. We have reported on a trend for oil-producing countries to sell oil in Euros instead of Dollars.

As more oil-producing nations fear the dollar is becoming "funny money" and demand payment in Euros, the world's need for Dollars will be greatly reduced. This is basic supply/demand economics.
Simply put, the average American household is already too much in debt and this scares banks from lending any money. Giving $700B to these banks will not change the fact that lending to bad debtors is a risky venture. It is safer for banks to invest this money in commodities (oil and gold) which do keep up with inflation than to issue loans that cannot be repaid. So expect this bailout package to give a speculative boost to oil prices.

Source

TLM Houses Accumulation

Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) is an independent, Canada-based, international upstream oil and gas company whose main business activities include exploration, development, production, transportation and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs).

The Company's segments where there are ongoing explorations, developments and production activities are North America, United Kingdom, Scandinavia, Southeast Asia and Other (comprising North Africa, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Peru and Qatar).

Talisman's aggregate production for the year ended December 31, 2007 was approximately 452,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), consists of approximately 189,000 boe/d from North America, 117,000 boe/d from the United Kingdom segment, 33,000 boe/d from the Scandinavia segment, 92,000 boe/d from Southeast Asia and 21,000 boe/d from the rest of the world.

As of March 5, 2008, Talisman had acquired a 93.3% interest in RSX Energy Inc.
3400, 888 - 3 Street S.W. Calgary, AB T2P 5C5 Canada +1-403-2371234 (Phone)+1-403-2371902 (Fax)

Company website:
http://www.talisman-energy.com News Releases,
Investor Relations, Financial Information, Corporate History/Profile,
Executives, Products/Services, Employment Opportunities

Stock market rout continues

Stock market rout continues

STEVE LADURANTAYE
Thursday, November 06, 2008
North American markets racked up deepening losses Thursday, as weak earnings and bleak economic data reminded investors that hard times are ahead regardless of who won the U.S. election.

“The markets seemed to shrug off the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election to continue the fickle nature of the moves we have seen recently,” said Ian Griffiths, a trader at CMC Markets. “There seems to be no respite in the volatility.”

The Dow Jones industrial average ended 4.85 per cent lower, or 443.48 points, to 8,695.79.

On Wednesday, the blue chip index posted its worst post-election session in history, plummeting by 5.1 per cent, or 486.01 points, as investors worried the financial crisis would worsen by the time President-elect Barrack Obama takes over the White House in January.

The broader S&P 500 lost 5.03 per cent, or 47.89 points, to 904.88. In Toronto, the S&P/TSX fell 3.36 per cent, or 331.79 points , to 9,555.41, as oil fell $4.53 (U.S.) to $60.77.

“Every day we are seeing wild swings in either the markets, oil or currency,” said Sloan Levett, the director of wealth management at Fuller Landau LLP in Toronto. “On any given day, at least one of those things is moving wildly.”

A slew of companies reported disappointing results, including Manulife Financial, which saw profit fall by $574-million (Canadian). In the U.S., Cisco Systems warned a soft economy could cut its sales by 10 per cent in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut its key lending rate by 50 basis points, to 3.25 per cent, while the Bank of England slashed its rate by 1.5 percentage points, to 3 per cent. Stocks temporarily rallied, but slunk back as investors continued wary of owning equities on the eve of a likely recession.

“There has been a very marked deterioration in the outlook for economic activity at home and abroad,” the Bank of England reminded investors as it cut its rate.

In economic news, new claims for unemployment insurance in the United States dropped slightly last week, the Labour Department reported Thursday morning. However, the number of people receiving benefits reached its highest level in 25 years.

Initial claims for jobless benefits dropped by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 481,000 for the week ending Nov. 1, above estimates of 480,000. Any figure above 400,000 is seen as recessionary. Meanwhile, 3.84-million people continued to get unemployment insurance – the highest level since 1983.

“The real juice of this report lies within the continuing claims component,” commented TD Securities economics strategist Ian Pollick. “ While we know that a regulatory-driven change in early August permanently elevated the level of the data, the massive jump from the prior week continues to suggest that it is taking much longer for people to find jobs, which does worry us.

There was some unexpected good news in Canada, as the value of building permits jumped 13.4 per cent in September, and non-residential construction rose 41.7 per cent. Economists had expected a 1 per cent drop in the value of building permits.

“Looking closely at this data, it is clear to see that the housing sector remains under pressure and it is non-residential activity that continues to prop up building activity,” TD Securities senior economics strategist Charmaine Buskas said. “As Canada's economy continues to unwind, that, too, will start to give way to weaker activity. But for now, building activity will remain resilient, thanks to the lopsided additions suggested by non-residential permitting activity.”

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

CONNACHER OIL AND GAS CLL News

CONNACHER OIL AND GAS
(T-CLL)
$1.84 -0.02
Somehow I thought this day might have seen a little
joy, maybe even some celebration...not hiding in a bun-
ker wondering how many 400 point down days the Dow
and TSX might have for us and worry if oil even has a
future!

We are referring to the long, anticipated final an-
nouncement by the Alberta’s Cabinet that Connacher’s
Algar SAGD project has been given the go-ahead. Esti-
mates suggest that $120 million of the $350 million pro-
ject has already been spent or committed, but now they
go full-boar ahead.

Jenny Mikhareva of Macquarie Securities writes in a
report today, “Connacher now has all the necessary
regulatory approvals to proceed with construction of
Algar, it’s second 10,000 barrel a day SAGD project at
Great Divide.” \

“We expect the company to begin preparing the site
for construction immediately….and to start construction
of the plant around year end 2008.”
She writes,

“The plant should take roughly 300 days
to build and about one month to commission and then
three months for steam to be going into the ground with
first bitumen production anticipated around March
2010.”

She points out something very important given the
credit crisis, “The project is fully funded, with the com-
pany having roughly $395 million available in cash and
credit.”

Mikhareva has a $5.00 target on the stock writing,
“The company is an attractive investment due to its ex-
isting production and cashflow base; significant, well-
defined growth going forward; its risk mitigating inte-
grated strategy; and a track record of successful project
execution.”

Meanwhile, GMP Securities has a $4.50 target on
Connacher (down from $6.25) and Raymond James has
a $5.75 12-month target (down from $7.25).
Oh, please! Let one of them be right...any one of
them

David Pescod Canaccord