Fear of a slack planet Marty Cej

Fear of a slack planet
The Chase by Marty Cej:

Asian stocks fell, European stocks are slumping and U.S. index futures indicate a drop at the open. What gives? Some are pointing to a decision by economists at Morgan Stanley to cut their forecasts for global economic growth, saying the U.S. and euro zone were "dangerously close to a recession."

But that's too easy. After all, Deutsche Bank lowered its forecasts for growth earlier in the day yesterday, Merrill Lynch moved its expectations for a rate hike in Canada back to December due to a weakening global economy, TD Securities yesterday moved its forecasts for rate increases in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. farther out into the future and Goldman Sachs has warned clients in recent weeks that while the probability of a U.S. recession sits at one-in-three, the risks are increasing. In other words, the Morgan Stanley report is one of many that have been circulating the markets in recent weeks so let's not overemphasize its importance to the markets today.

Instead, let's get at what led Morgan Stanley to its conclusions, ask what has changed in the last three days of data, policy statements or market moves that prompted the cuts by Morgan Stanley and others. Jim Flaherty and Mark Carney have not been summoned to testify before a parliamentary committee tomorrow because of an economist's report.

We'll get some help with that task today thanks to the release of U.S. initial jobless claims at 8:30 and, more importantly, the Philly Fed index at 10 am. The Philadelphia area remains a key manufacturing district for the U.S. so the report can dictate the market's performance in the short term. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the index to drop to 2 from 3.2 though the spread between estimates ranges from -6 to 10, one of the widest ever.

Rather than driving stocks lower because of a Morgan Stanley report, markets are more likely pricing in the risk of another report showing a worsening U.S. economy. We'll also get a read on U.S. consumer price inflation at 8:30 as well as Canadian leading economic indicators and wholesale prices.

Our pursuit of the patent story continues today in the wake of Wi-Lan's unsolicited bid for Mosaid after the close of trading last night. Ron Shuttleworth, analyst at M Partners, will take us through the process of finding values in a patent portfolio at 10:10 am while Wi-Lan CEO Jim Skippen joins us at 2:15 to talk about his bid and why Mosaid has been resistant to his overtures so far.

Mickey Drexler will cap off our coverage of the U.S. retailer earnings season this week in a half hour conversation with Howard Green at 1:00. Credited with first saving The Gap by making it relevant to an entire generation and then growing J. Crew into a global brand and online powerhouse, Drexler can provide insight into the U.S. retailing industry that no one else can. Plus, he brought gingham back.

With my help, of course, but he gets most of the credit.
Retail stocks continue to be a focus for the markets this week as we examine numbers from Limited Brands – which sashayed past analyst expectations with an insouciant pout – and Dollar Tree, which beat and raised its forecast. Sears Holdings loss widened and sales fell.
The U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether Standard & Poor's improperly rated mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis, the New York Times is reporting, citing unnamed sources.

The investigation began long before the U.S. debt downgrade but is still likely to add fuel to the political rhetoric. We're pursuing.
Gold has rallied to a record high in early trading and oil is slumping ahead of the Philly Fed survey.
And that's just for starters.

BNK.TSE + Technical Analsys Of Current Roller Coaster Market

Bankers has 10.69% Of ALL Stock In Public Float Is Short

Hold Stock Short...This will explode upward at some point.

Bill Carrigan TA : Our first chart is the basic 8-wave count of a full bull and bear Elliott Wave count. Note the bull phase – impulse wave to (1) which is followed by a counter trend corrective wave down to (2). We then get an impulse wave to (3) which is followed by a counter trend corrective wave down to (4). We then get the final advance to (5) which is then followed by an A-B-C or three wave correction or bear phase.













The nasty selling panic that began three weeks ago has confused the fundamental and technical analysts. The fundamental guys fear a recession along with declining earnings and those risky European banks.
















The technical guys study the MACD, the RSI, stochastics and moving averages. The only thing that works is Elliott Wave because when the count is applied to long term charts we can see where we were and where we are going.

Some basic tenents are the corrective (2) will never violate the low of impulse wave (1). Impulse wave (3) is never the shortest wave and the low of corrective wave (4) will never enter the space of impulse wave (1). The theory of alternation holds that if corrective wave (2) is short and simple than corrective wave (4) will be long and complicated. So there you have it as set out in our simple diagram

Now I am illustrating an Elliott Wave count on the Dow Industrials using weekly data to set out the 2009 to date 1-2-3-4-5 bull advance count and the subsequent A-B-C correction or bear phase. Note the last C wave corrective wave has been a sudden and sharp decline accompanied by fear, confusion and panic which is typical of a C wave bottom.












If this is a bottom then we start into a new Elliott Wave 1-2-3-4-5 wave advance that should run through 2013. Keep in mind that a new impulse was (1) is always thought to be a bear market rally





Dumpster diving with Wilbur Ross
The Chase by Marty Cej:

Global stock markets are mixed as we approach the North American open after a hastily thrown together "summit" between Angela Merkel and Nikolas Sarkozy yesterday failed to result in measures that buttress confidence in Europe.

We'll see whether President Obama fares any better today after an "unnamed administration official" told Bloomberg, AP and others that the president will give a major speech in September to ask Congress for additional money to boost the economy and stimulate job growth. The president will also ask for long-term spending cuts, the unnamed official said.

Presidential hopeful Rick Perry warned yesterday that any move to stimulate the economy by Federal Reserve officials would be considered "treasonous" and result in their "ugly" treatment if they ever let the sun go down on them in Texas. The White House, European leaders, ECB and Fed have now all made aggressive policy statements towards stimulating growth and easing financial conditions. Will that be enough, combined with healthy corporate balance sheets and billions in cash on the sidelines, to recharge global stocks markets?

We're about to find out.
BNN features today a conversation with billionaire Wilbur Ross of WL Ross & Co. One of the foremost bankruptcy and leveraged buyout experts in the world, Ross will sit down for half an hour with Howard Green at 1:00 pm Eastern. We'll ask Ross what he's buying, what he's selling and whether he believes the U.S. economy is tipping – like a stand-up paddleboard swamped by a Sea-Doo's wake – into recession.

Among the stories we need to pursue today are the repercussions of a tax on financial transactions proposed by Merkel and Sarkozy yesterday. Short on details, the mere mention of a tax – an idea that was rejected by the European Union in 2010 – drove shares of exchanges and banks lower. What might the tax look like? How would it hurt volumes and earnings? Would it affect Canadian banks and exchanges? Could it be good for Canadian banks and exchanges? Let's find out.

U.S. retailers continue to roll out their earnings this week with numbers from Target, which beat by 6 cents, and BJs Wholesale, which beat by as much as 8 cents a share. Abercrombie & Fitch, where Michael Kane purchases much of his leisure wear, topped the average forecast by 5 cents.

Deere & Co. is another stock to watch today after the world's biggest maker of cool farm machinery reported a short time ago, earning $1.69 per share in its third quarter, beating estimates for $1.67 a share. The company added that it remains on track for record annual revenue and profit.

Watch oil this morning. U.S. inventory data due out at 10:30 is expected to show a big draw down in gasoline after last week's unexpectedly big decline in crude and gasoline inventories.
There are many more stories but no more time, for me at least.