Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Has the S&P 500 broken the downside setup?

By Avi Gilburt
If you were hoping that I was going to be able to present some magical count to clear this chart up, then I am sorry to say, I am going to seriously disappoint you. Not only do we not have clearer indications in the market, but the difference between this week's close and last week's close was not even a full 1.50 points. Talk about going nowhere fast.
For months now, this market has been up, down and all around — in other words, a corrective mess. It has not given any strong indication as to the next larger moves, which all smacks of corrective action. Yes, I know there are some who are so certain about the market’s next big move, but most of them have been saying the same thing for months as well. If we all take a step back and look at this market from an honest and larger-degree perspective, we will realize we have gone nowhere. Coming into 2014, I was quite clear that I expected the early part of 2014 to represent the market at an inflection point, and it surely has not disappointed.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Sell in May and go-away?

May is approaching and everyone (and their brother-in-law) will be out with the "sell in May and go-away" thesis. FBN Financial's technical analyst is one of the first with a report today that notes there is validity to the argument after assessing 20-years of data. The May-October period has accounted for -4% of the return from the S&P 500 over the period. Combine this with the historical market uncertainty that usually falls through the summer during mid-term election years, one should keep their options open.

http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2014/04/25/SP-slashes-Russias-rating.aspx

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