The fiscal cliff is a trumped-up phony

By David Weidner, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) – The fiscal cliff is a trumped-up phony.

It’s a political issue, not a pressing economic one. There’s a couple of tricks to solving it, but it’s not impossible. Wall Street could do it. It’s fixed tougher, albeit smaller, problems.

The fiscal cliff, as designed by lawmakers, would instigate draconian automatic spending cuts on Jan. 1. It would be something like trying to fix a car with poor gas mileage by depriving it of gasoline.

To understand how our national debt problem could be fixed, it might be helpful to step back and see what’s in our favor and what’s not.

The positives

First let’s look at the strengths. The good news is that we have time. This is probably our greatest asset. Despite our worsening debt picture, U.S. obligations remain the safest in the world. There is no reason to think the U.S. cannot manage its debts. Wall Street would be the first to vouch for that fact. The 10-year Treasury 10_YEAR -0.87% yields less than 2%; inflation is running at about the same rate.

That’s not some biased opinion of a liberal economist like Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz. It’s the verdict of the free market. It’s said that investors are the ultimate ratings agency. If that’s true, in the words of Warren Buffett, the U.S. is a “quadruple-A” credit.

Second, contrary to opinion, the $16 trillion national debt mostly is in the hands of friends. Two-thirds, 66%, is owned by U.S. investors, including the government itself. The rest is split up among foreign countries. China owns 8.1%, Japan 7%, according to the Treasury Department.

That last part might sound alarming, but this is how global finance works. Nations lend to each other. We are competitors, but we are partners too. Because China owns our debt, it has an interest in our economic well-being. It needs our markets. China’s wealth is tied to the value of our dollar.

Finally, there’s our potential. A Wall Street adviser would see if there is anything worth investing in. And here, too, the outlook is good. All sides agree that given the right conditions, the economy will start humming again. Stronger gross domestic product will translate into a bigger tax base. It will be the quickest and easiest way to pare annual deficits and trim the debt.

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RIM sets date for BB10 launch

The chase by Marty Cej:

Skyfall scored a record opening weekend for a James Bond movie and won six thumbs up from the girls in the front row who were celebrating a 12th birthday party. Their attendance was something of a surprise since the invitation said something about a tweeny movie about rival a capella choirs or something, but a last minute decision by the chaperone (me) meant everyone could actually enjoy the afternoon. Even the guy next to me – an empty seat away from me, that is - who picked popcorn from his teeth with a piece of cardboard that he folded over and over and over again, had to admit, loudly, that "Whoah, looks like the Bond franchise has another winner, yep. Snort."

Leon's Furniture took The Brick at its word and leapt for a Hot Deal that may have been available for just a Limited Time! Toronto-based Leon's agreed to buy The Brick of Edmonton for about $700 million in a bid to compete better with heavyweight U.S. interlopers such as Target and Wal-Mart. Leon's will pay $5.40 in cash or debentures, a 62-percent premium over the 20-day volume-weighted average share price of The Brick. As part of the deal, Leon's will also get the matching leather loveseat. But there will be no time to Ho-Ho Hold the Payments in this transaction. The two sides say they expect the deal to close in the first quarter of 2013. The companies will hold a conference call at 10:00 am Eastern. We'll listen in. We'll also use this deal to take a look at the broader Canadian retail sector ahead of The Bay's IPO next week. At these prices, you'd be crazy not to buy!

Hold the phone! Research In Motion said it will launch the BlackBerry 10 on January 30, 2013, which is, according to my calculations, near the beginning of the first quarter and right on time with the company's launch estimates. RIM said the launch will happen simultaneously in multiple countries around the world and will involve the roll-out of the BB10 operating system as well as the first two BlackBerry 10 smartphones. By locking down a date, the company has focused the market's expectations and given traders an opportunity to play their hunches. The announcement may also alter some of those hunches since the company is demonstrating a certain level of confidence and competence that many feared had evaporated several quarters ago.

I like the energy story today. The International Energy Agency said overnight that U.S. oil output will surpass Saudi Arabia's in the next decade, a development that puts the country well on track to full energy self-sufficiency and perhaps become a net exporter. How about that? Apart from the implications for oil prices, there is the question of Canada's place in the transformation of its biggest energy customer into something else. What does a forecast like this from the IEA mean for projects like the Keystone XL? For long-term investment into the oil sands?

The IEA also said that natural gas would overtake oil as the most used fuel in the U.S. by 2030 thanks to abundant supply even as gas consumption soars in China, India and elsewhere. This raises many questions about Canada's LNG ambitions and its access to markets beyond the U.S. In short, will we be ready?

European finance ministers meet this evening in Brussels for a bracing glass of Westmalle Dubbel (cures loss of appetite and insomnia and reduces stress by half, according to the Trappist monks who make it) before trying to prevent a Greek bill redemption from triggering an accidental default while continuing to delay a 31.5 billion-euro bailout payment to Greece that has been frozen since June as some sort of stick-and-carrot thing, one supposes.

There are a few earnings stories we need to focus on today, including numbers from DR Horton and Beazer Homes, which are expected to provide more evidence of an improving U.S. housing economy.