Fed steps up to the mic

The chase by Marty Cej:

Monetary policy will be front and centre at BNN today. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney sits down with Howard Green at 12:30 p.m. ET for a conversation about the European morass, global economic challenges, financial regulation and how Canadian companies must step up and save the world… or else.

The Federal Reserve is expected to make some indication today -- however subtle -- that another round of quantitative easing is not a done deal. Recent U.S. economic data has been surprisingly robust, helping to stoke optimism that while European leaders shuffle towards a solution to their debt crisis, the world’s largest economy is slowing but surely regaining its composure.

Chairman Bernanke has been trying to improve the transparency of the Fed’s operations and provide clearer signals to markets, companies and consumers. Today, he is likely to take another big step in that direction. The statement is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET.
We have several corporate stories we’ll have to pursue through the morning, including the biggest-ever order for Boeing jets. Southwest Airlines ordered 150 737 MAX airplanes and 58 “Next-Generation” 737s.

The dollar value is about $19 billion. The new orders speak to the global push by airlines to cut costs with more fuel efficient planes. We need to ask again where Bombardier fits in this story.
Best Buy missed third-quarter earnings expectations by 4 cents but reiterated its full-year forecast.

Its numbers come just as investors digest a smaller than expected increase in U.S. retail sales. Shoppers drove sales up 0.2 percent last month, compared with expectations for a gain of 0.6 percent. The preceding month was revised higher to 0.6 percent from 0.5 percent. The question now is whether an early surge in holiday shopping will persist through the actual holidays.

With Research In Motion’s earnings just two days away, analysts at JPMorgan say the company is “increasingly likely” to delay the launch of its BlackBerry 10 phones in the second half of next year, a disappointment the company and shareholders can hardly afford just now. We will test JPMorgan’s assumptions and question the persistent speculation about a sale of the company with analyst Pierre Ferragu of Sanford Bernstein at 9:50 a.m. ET.

Newsletter writer Dennis Gartman goes to great pains to reiterate that he is a trader and that he will hold a position until that position is no longer profitable. In his words, “a trend in motion tends to stay in motion… until it stops.” After selling his gold holdings yesterday, he proclaims this morning “the death of a bull.” We gotta talk gold today. It has dropped down through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages but still has a long way before it bounces against the resilient 200-day moving average. Has Gartman sold too soon? Let’s find out.

I’m running late and the make-up people are breathing down my neck. And brandishing brushes and puffs.

Investors skeptical of European measures

The chase by Marty Cej:

European stocks are lower, industrial commodities are sliding and U.S. index futures are pointing to early losses after the weekend?s EU summit left investors and lawmakers skeptical that the long-term steps agreed upon will solve the debt crisis in the near term. European leaders ended the summit with a pact to draft a new treaty that enforces tighter fiscal integration but details won?t be settled until at least March. In the meantime, the EU leaders have agreed to lend up to 200 billion euros to the IMF to help it support the weakest members of the euro-zone, and to accelerate the permanent rescue fund ? the European Stability Mechanism ? by a full year to mid-2012. Between now and March, the markets will look to the European Central Bank for support and wonder whether Standard & Poor?s will cut its ratings on European countries before Christmas. One definitive result of the meeting was British Prime Minister David Cameron?s political alienation from the broader European Union. By standing up for Britain?s financial services industry and opposing a transaction tax, Cameron has thrown his political future into some doubt and potentially removed White Hall from the next phase of decisions in Brussels.
The U.S. Federal Reserve?s policy-setting Open Market Committee reveals its latest take on the U.S. economy tomorrow at 2:15 pm Eastern. The FOMC is not expected to invoke any new measures to stimulate growth so the market?s attention will be on how the Fed sees the recent spate of stronger-than-expected economic data, including a big drop in the unemployment rate and remarkably resilient consumer confidence numbers. Today, Headline sits down at 1:00 pm with Alice Rivlin, a member of the President?s Debt Commission and a former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.
It should be noted that stronger-than-anticipated retail sales last month have many analysts and economists arguing that U.S. shoppers are now already tapped out. A survey by UBS and America?s Research Group (ARG) this morning says that with ?

two weeks to go before Christmas, holiday shoppers buffeted by the weak U.S. economy have already spent all they can afford to on gifts? ?More Americans are living week to week,? said ARG Chairman Britt Beemer, who noted that the new findings are the bleakest in the survey's 27-year history. "They simply have no money."

And what about Canadian monetary policy? Rather than speculate we?ll simply ask Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who joins us Tuesday on Headline. We?ll talk about the outlook for the Canadian economy, Canadian interest rates, household debt, global financial regulation and the skiing near Basel, Switzerland, maybe.

This is one interview you will not want to miss.
Sun Life Financial said this morning that it is cutting 800 jobs, closing two lines of business in the U.S. and will take a small charge as it intensifies its ?focus on reducing volatility and improving the return on shareholders' equity by shifting capital to businesses with superior growth, risk and return characteristics.? Paul Bagnell is listening in on the conference call for more details and Peter Routledge, director of research, financial services, National Bank Financial, will join us with his take on Sun Life and its competitors at 10:30.

Suncor is pulling out of Syria and EnCana is fighting back against claims from the Environmental Protection Agency that its drilling activities in Wyoming are poisoning the water.
Stock movers today could include Air Canada, GMP, Ivanhoe Energy and Yellow Media, all of which were booted from the S&P/TSX Composite.