Thursday, October 20, 2011

Pescod States...

HATHOR EXPLORATION
FISSION ENERGY
BELO SUN MINING

(T-HAT)
(V-FIS)
(V-BSX)

$4.40 +0.37
$0.75 +0.13
$1.16 -0.01

Silly us for taking some easy money in an ugly market. We
had been talking about Hathor Exploration for months because
Eric Zaunscherb, analyst now with Pacific International
thought sooner or later they became a take-over target...and
he was right!

One only wondered what the bidding war would have
started at had it happened in better markets, or before Fuku-
shima.

Zaunscherb had been suggesting for people to hang on,
but again, silly us, there is nothing like taking nice profits in a
bad market.

Today, Rio Tinto enters the bidding war and Zaunscherb
writes in a published report to his followers, “Mega-miner Rio
Tinto and Hathor have announced a friendly agreement for
Rio Tinto to acquire all of the common shares of Hathor for
$4.15 in cash, or approximately $578 million on a fully-diluted
basis.”

He notes, “Directors and senior management have signed
a support agreement locking up their shares (approximately
4.6%, fully diluted) subject to a reasonable break fee of $20
million; their support agreement may be terminated in favor
of an unsolicited superior bid.”

Zaunscherb adds, “This is not capitulation on the part of
Hathor. We expect Cameco to come back with a minimum
10% raise to Rio Tinto’s offer to approximately $4.50 per
share. Further, we surmise that Rio Tinto is seriously inter-
ested in this world-class asset, having acquired a 5.7% inter-
est in Hathor (fully diluted basis), and we expect the senior to
counter with a further 10% lift to approximately $5.00 per
share.”

Zaunscherb continues, “It would not be surprising to see a
third party (i.e. not Cameco or Rio Tinto) enter into the bid-
ding war for this world-class uranium asset.”
Once upon a time it looked like it might be had in an ugly
market for a couple of nickels more, now looks like it’s going
to be attracting a lot more attention than one had expected.
Zaunscherb is one of the few analysts out there that has
made anybody any money, what with the Hathor take-over
and a huge performance of his former favorite gold stock—
Avion Gold (AVR). So needless to say, today we ask him
again if you wanted to buy only one stock in the market to-
day, what would it be?

He answers Belo Sun Mining for their gold play in Brazil which should have some new resource numbers in the com-
ing months and he expects a big increase.

As far as the poor performance in gold of late? He suggests he expects the American dollar to start trending down
again sooner or later and suggests that gold is still in an uptrend which he expects to continue.

GRAYD RESOURCES
AGNICO-EAGLE

To take the easy money and run...or to wait around for
a better offer? We’ve just talked about the Hathor take-
over and how those who have hung on are probably go-
ing to benefit from the developing bidding war that is
finally taking place. Obviously, it was better to hang on.
But then, there are other stories. Take a look at
what’s happening to Agnico-Eagle Mines today as their
Goldex mine in Quebec is watered out and there is some
debate as to whether that mine will ever be producing
again. If it is, for sure it’s a long way down the road...a
long, long way.

Agnico-Eagle which owns many mines, still gets
drubbed today. This affects Grayd Resources and Agnico-
Eagle had an offer in to buy out Grayd many weeks ago,
but the offer was $2.80 cash or a combination of cash
and shares of Agnico-Eagle.

All of a sudden, that paper offer isn’t looking nearly as
good and Grayd shares are getting clobbered. All of a
sudden, that $2.80 price on Grayd of a few weeks ago is
looking awfully tasty and the answer is, one never knows
what happens on these bidding situations.
Congratulations to those who hung on in the Hathor
deal, but punishment for those who were hoping for
something better on Grayd Resources.

(V-GYD)
(T-AEM)

$2.30 -0.19
$47.35 -10.62

Hope for a debt solution fades

The chase by Marty Cej:

Turning to the European debt crisis and the meeting of European leaders this weekend, the market's expectations have been bludgeoned lower by German government spokesmen and images of European bureaucrats scrambling the private jets for urgent emergency last minute 11th-hour crisis summit talks in Berlin. Optimism for a plan has been downgraded to prayers for a blueprint for a plan to come up with a solution.

France wants the ECB to use its balance sheet to boost the bailout mechanism's – the EFSF – funds and for the EFSF to have a banking license. Germany would like the EFSF to provide first loss guarantees to boost the funds. The French approach would increase the EFSF's available funds, a good thing, but then it also increases the exposure of the guarantors and could lead to credit-rating downgrades.

The German approach limits members' liabilities to those already agreed under the recently enhanced EFSF, but it's questionable how much value investors will give to a partial guarantee which would undermine confidence. But it's only Thursday. There's plenty of time left.
Plenty of time left for a European solution, that is. Time appears to have run out for Moammar Gadhafi (nee Qadhaffi nee Gaddafi) however.

Reuters reports that the former Libyan despot and disco king was captured and wounded in both legs near his hometown of Sirte. There are also unconfirmed reports that he has died of his wounds. We'll continue to report developments as and when they can be confirmed.

The Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board is partnering with Microsoft to take a run at Yahoo, according to unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal. What would the CPPIB want with Yahoo? How much would the pension plan throw into the kitty? What is Yahoo worth? The CPPIB has told us that it won't comment on the WSJ story so we'll have to look under the rocks for answers ourselves.

Earnings will dominate much of our coverage this morning with EnCana reporting a drop in earnings that still appears to have topped expectations. Paul Bagnell has the file in the early going but will hand off to Brett Harris. We're watching for Shaw Communications this morning and Celestica after the close. Out of the U.S., Union Pacific, AT&T and Eli Lilly will help set the tone ahead of Microsoft after the close of trading tonight.

A parade of economic data will either be cheered or jeered (not everyone loves a parade) this morning: Initial jobless claims at 8:30 will be followed by leading economic indicators at 10 as well as the market-moving Philadelphia Fed survey out at the same time. Existing home sales, also at 10, are expected to confirm that things are tough and just getting tougher.

Viewers are listening to the news and reading the headlines and wondering what to do. In our coverage of the daily breaking news, we occasionally miss the opportunity to talk strategy and financial planning.

How do investors prepare their portfolios for a lengthy period of subpar growth? How do they position their finances for a rebound in inflation? A rally in stocks? A slowdown in earnings? There are as many plans as there are hypotheses about the next several quarters.

Search The Web