Technically Speaking Time To Buy YRI-T

Highlighting: Yamana Gold Inc. (Public, TSE:YRI)

The markets get battered and gold stocks rally. This was the theme of the day on Tuesday that saw Gold stocks rally to gains of as much as 2%. So I suppose you want a Gold play… well here it is. Yamana Gold Inc. gained just over 2% on the day as investors sought safety in Gold following the bottom falling out in equities. Wednesday brings upon earnings from Goldcorp and Barrick, so best bet is to wait for the morning earnings report to make your play.

Stocks were clobbered today, averaging losses of 2.29% on volumes over 30% higher than the day previous. Of the 1661 stocks analyzed, only 145 advanced, 1506 declined and the last 10 were dead even…or possibly just dead. Overbought levels have come way down, now only in the single digit percentage points according to stochastics and RSI. Small-Caps won the session yet again, losing the least amount of value at 2.32% on average. Mid-Caps and Large-Caps rounded out the losses at 2.39% and 2.68%, respectively. Bolstering the losses amongst the stocks analyzed were equities traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange, which only saw losses of 0.89%.

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV (YRI.TO) Seasonality Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 19 and a sell date of February 22, investors have benefited from a total return of 2732.96% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 8 of those periods. Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of December 3 and a sell date of February 22, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 1795.55% with positive results in 10 of those periods. The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 4.53%. Comments:

Yamana is rebounding from a significant support level at $10 after finding significant volume on Tuesday, floating the stock amongst the losses present in the market. With volatility increasing, Gold is being sought as a safe haven, however with earnings continuing to progress the ideal entry point at this level is all but certain. Two majors within this space, Goldcorp and Barrick, report on Wednesday, which may subject this stock to pressure if the earnings are not interpreted well. But for the most part, Gold and Gold related stocks are seen as a safe choice and poised to receive a little bit of strength after being ignored in the market upturn since February lows.

The stock faces a quick spurt coming off of Q1 earnings season in the month of May for gains reaching 10% on average. Will history repeat? The main period of strength for the equity is at year end for substantial returns over the period.

YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV (YRI.TO) 10.59 + 0.21 (2.02%) Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Point Resistance 1 Resistance 2 10.19 10.39 10.54 10.74 10.89 Expected Short-Term Trading Range: 10.07 – 10.55 Support & Resistance Analysis Broke Lwr Resistance (1) MACD Analysis Negative/Increasing MACD MACD vs. Signal Above/Widening -0.032 RSI Analysis Bullish RSI Stochastic (Fast) Analysis Neutral 56.811 50-Day MA Analysis Above 50-Day MA – Crossover %K (fast) 200-Day MA Analysis Below 200-Day MA 78.824 Critical Level Analysis Broke Above Previous Trend

Retirees may be forced to keep risking investments

The turmoil in Greece, hot on the heels of the financial crisis and the tech wreck before, may have future retirees scurrying to the safety of fixed income again but investors should keep their focus squarely on growth to avoid outliving their portfolios, a new report argues.

"Retirees should keep a significant portion of their wealth allocated to risky assets, like stocks, in order to provide enough growth over the long run and avoid prematurely depleting their wealth," Kurt E. Reiman, a strategist at UBS AG said in a note to clients.

At retirement, investors have typically been taught to become more risk averse by reducing their exposure to equities and other growth assets in favour of fixed-income securities such as bonds. Indeed, a well-worn rule of thumb is to allocate your age in bonds. In other words, at 70 years of age, an investor should hold 70% bonds, and 30% equities.

But traditional cookie-cutter retirement approaches that recommend reduced risk for all may not do the trick anymore.

"I use it as starting point, but many portfolios need more growth in order for people to retire on their own terms these days," Adrian Mastracci, a portfolio manager at KCM Wealth Management Inc. in Vancouver, said.

According to Mr. Reiman, a variety of societal trends has rendered retirement as we know it a thing of the past. As a result, that is creating new financial objectives for investors that are much more personalized in nature compared with the largely shared retirement mindset of the past.

"Pension plans, both public and private, face imminent funding pressure because there are fewer people working and more people retiring," he said.

"Medical costs and spending on health care services are on the rise as well, which burdens government finances even further. At the same time, people are anticipating longer active lives, with some form of employment potentially a part of the picture."

Mr. Reiman said these trends are not happening in isolation, but instead are converging to alter how people perceive their relationship to their career and how they plan to pay for the time when their careers end.

Faced with growing pressures to meet their spending needs, wants and wishes, retirees are also dealing with increasing levels of uncertainty and complexity related to financial risks, such as market volatility and inflation.

To combat these challenges, he said more portfolio growth is needed. He recommended a portfolio that includes stocks, commodities or real estate, highlighting two strategies that offer growth, but also provide a degree of safety for investors.

The first is a laddered approach of short-term bonds maturing over the next five years, and an additional growth portfolio for the longer run. "The main advantage of this strategy is that investors can weather storms on the financial markets, he said.

"The retiree has a period of up to five years before he/she has to sell assets from the diversified growth portfolio. Therefore, the investor is not forced to sell assets in a severe bear market, but can hold onto his/her investments until the market has recovered."

A second approach is to consider annuities as part of the solution, which can better address longevity risk.

Mr. Mastracci said most of his clients in retirement fluctuate between 40% and 50% growth exposure in their portfolios in order to meet their individual needs. However, like the UBS report, he stressed the importance of ensuring each portfolio provides some degree of emotional comfort.

"Some people may need some extra juice in their portfolio, but they have to be satisfied with the potential extra risk," he said.

Financial Post