InvestTools Review

INVESTools (SWIM), according to their most recent 10-k calls themselves "a leader in investor education," helping users achieve their goals by using the "INVESTools method."The company consists of four subsidiaries including ZiaSun, Telescan, and SES Acquisition Corp., and Prophet Financial Systems. INVESTools recently acquired retail broker Think or Swim, rated highly by Barron's (.pdf), for what that is worth.

Business Strategy

The company's business strategy raises concern, and their products are gimmicky and misleading. INVESTools products and services are built around "a 5-Step Investing Formula that is designed to teach both experienced and beginning investors how to approach the stock selection process and actively manage their investment portfolios.

" The stated end goal for INVESTool customers is to "take control of their financial futures," just like every other infomercial I have seen. Investools courses range from a basic 5-step course to the laughable "Master Investor Program," and "Program of High Distinction." However, if INVESTools customers are truly interested in learning about financial markets instead of falling victim to another get rich quick infomercial, why don't they sign up for a course at their local university, consider a career change to the financial services industry, or visit their local library, which costs nothing. INVESTools' management team should not kid themselves into thinking that their product is somehow unique, special, or proprietary.

Sources of Revenue

According to the company's 10-k, revenue comes from (i) the initial sale of the company's products and services as a result of marketing efforts across multiple acquisition channels which include, but are not limited to, television, print, postal mail, radio, online banner, paid and organic search and email direct marketing campaigns driving customers to either a free preview of investor education products offered at locations near the prospect or the opportunity to speak with a telesales representative about the products offered; and (ii) the additional sale of products and services to graduates as a result of continued interaction with us in workshops, periodic email and direct mail communications and through access to coaches and instructors.

In a nutshell, revenues for the INVESTools' segment come from continued marketing efforts.
Holes in the INVESTools Story
I believe that when the company's customers start to realize that this product does not work after several diligent efforts to get rich quick with INVESTools, the company's business model will crumble. The large increase in earnings growth is mainly a result of the ThinkorSwim acquisition in February, which provided $32.586 million during Q307 in additional revenue, and increased revenue for nine months ended September 30, 2007 of $69.441 million, with both increases coming from an easy comp base of zero. Comps for the investor education segment were actually down yoy Q307 by 20%, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 were down by 13%.

Bottom Line

With what appears to be growth mainly from the ThinkOrSwim acquisition, the quality of INVESTools' earnings must come into question. Although ThinkOrSwim may be a viable brokerage business, management needs to divest or liquidate their investor education unit and focus on the ThinkOrSwim segment, or risk wasting valuable resources on basically an infomercial business that is not viable long term.

Management's exit strategy should be to continue to grow ThinkOrSwim before selling out to a strategic acquirer such as TD Ameritrade due to the intense competition and commoditization in the brokerage industry. However, this appears unlikely based on CEO Mr.Lee Barba's comments to SeekingAlpha.com contributor Joseph Citarella.

With a fairly successful career on Wall Street managing the global trading business of Banker's Trust, as well as stints at Paine Webber and Lehman Brothers, it's astonishing that Mr. Barba can't see the weaknesses in his own company's business model.

and this comment:

"Successful 'blackbox' programs naturally have diminishing returns as they gain popularity. However, Investools is not another 'blackbox'. I'm sure your familiar with simple technical analysis like stochastic oscillators, MACD, and support and resistance. All Investools 'blackbox' does is teach students to interpret technical signals on stocks. They also provide filters and screens to make sure students trade fundamentally sound or momentum stocks. Yes, a willing person can educate themselves for a fraction of the cost. Investools, however, is a master at convincing not only blue-collar Americans, but also extremely smart doctors and professionals to shell out $5,000-$20,000 for the investment education. With the opportunity cost alone of the fee you need a lot of winning trades to recoup those fees. At the conferences, I've seen people pay with 4 different credit cards believing they had finally found the easy money in life. IMO Investools is one of the most unethical companies listed on the major exchanges. "

Source

And this review

Investools Review - Am I making Money with Investools
So the big question is am I making money with Investools and has the course paid for itself? Looking at my account balance since I had the ah moment indicates that I am on the right track and will very soon have made enough to pay for the course. Do I still have losing trades? Of course. Every thing I have read and experienced would indicate that losing trades are just part of trading. The trick is to determine how to properly manage the trade.

http://www.knispo-guide-to-stock-trading.com/investools-reviews.html

When USA Prints Money This Is The Possible Result

Oil price and the $700B bailout by Steve Austin - 2008/10/06

As the US house of representatives voted to increase the dollar supply by $700B, many are wondering what effect this will have on energy prices.

History is full of tragic examples where helicopter money triggered rampant inflation and widespread economic hardship. Let's take a look at some of these examples in the light of today:

Crushed by World War One's debt, the Weimar republic kept printing money and giving it directly to consumers and businesses to buy votes and help them cope with ever increasing prices.Within a few years the Mark had devaluated so much that a postage stamp cost fifty billion Mark and everyone's life savings had been wiped out. Mark bills were worth less than the paper they were printed on. As the famous picture above illustrates, in the face of galloping energy prices, it had become cheaper to heat one's house by burning money than coal. Although one US dollar is still worth more than the paper it is printed on, as of 2008 one US penny contains 2 cents worth of metal.

Although oil prices seem high today, they are kept artificially low because many oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia peg their currencies to the US dollar. When the dollar is devaluated, these countries currencies and national economies are threatened by inflation and this is an incentive for them to let their currencies float and appreciate. In 2006 Kuwait unpegged its currency from the US dollar and as other oil-producing nations follow suit, expect energy prices to rise.

Currently oil is bought and sold on the world market in dollars, so everyone needs to first buy dollars in order to buy oil. We have reported on a trend for oil-producing countries to sell oil in Euros instead of Dollars.

As more oil-producing nations fear the dollar is becoming "funny money" and demand payment in Euros, the world's need for Dollars will be greatly reduced. This is basic supply/demand economics.
Simply put, the average American household is already too much in debt and this scares banks from lending any money. Giving $700B to these banks will not change the fact that lending to bad debtors is a risky venture. It is safer for banks to invest this money in commodities (oil and gold) which do keep up with inflation than to issue loans that cannot be repaid. So expect this bailout package to give a speculative boost to oil prices.

Source