Oil soars to record above $145
PABLO GORONDI
Thursday, July 03, 2008
KUALA LUMPUR — Oil prices neared $146 (U.S.) a barrel Thursday for the first time ever on reports of declining U.S. stockpiles and the threat of conflict with Iran.
Comments by Saudi Arabia's oil minister suggesting his country had no immediate plans to boost production also lifted prices.
Expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates later Thursday could further weaken the U.S. dollar and drive oil prices even higher, as investors turn to commodities as a hedge against a falling greenback, traders said.
By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for August delivery rose $2.28 to a record $145.85 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
On Wednesday, the contract set a new closing record for floor trade at $143.57 — a full $2.60 above the previous close.
The latest spike means a barrel of crude has gone up by more than 50 per cent since the end of last year, when oil was going for $96 a barrel.
In London, Brent crude futures rose to a trading record of $146.69 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange before retreating to $146.07, up $1.81.
“Even though the rise of European interest rates has been priced into oil, an official announcement by the ECB will still add momentum to oil prices,” said Victor Shum, an analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.
The push above $145 a barrel was seen as a last technical barrier to prices hitting $150, in what analyst Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland called “the Morgan Stanley self fulfilling prophecy.”
In early June, a prediction by Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer that oil prices could reach $150 by the July 4 weekend caused the Nymex contract to jump nearly $11 in a single day.
Speaking Thursday in Madrid, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali Naimi, left the door open for increased output, but said the kingdom's oil customers were satisfied and that no production growth was planned for now.
The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday crude oil supplies fell by 2 million barrels last week, or about 800,000 barrels more than analysts surveyed by the energy research firm Platts had predicted.
However, the report offered a mixed picture of energy use by the world's thirstiest oil consumer. Gasoline supplies unexpectedly grew by a considerable amount, and demand continued to slide — suggesting record fuel prices are prompting a shift in American driving habits.
Ongoing rhetoric about possible attacks on Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer and OPEC's second-largest exporter, also left the market jittery.
Traders are worried Tehran could try to halt shipments and seize control of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz if attacked by Israel or the United States. About 40 per cent of the world's tanker traffic passes through the Middle Eastern choke-point.
Iran's foreign minister did not rule the possibility that Iran could try to restrict oil traffic in the strait if the country was attacked.
“In Iran we must defend our national security, our country and our revolutionary system and we will continue to do so,” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said in an interview with The Associated Press in New York.
Mr. Mottaki said he does not believe Israel or the United States will attack, however, calling the prospect of another war in the Middle East “craziness.”
A senior U.S. military commander vowed to ensure that the strait remains open.
“We will not allow Iran to close it,” said Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, commander of the 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, after talks with naval commanders of Persian Gulf countries in the United Arab Emirates.
The saber-rattling has left energy traders on edge as they try to ascertain the likelihood of a Middle East flare-up and the effect it could have on the world's already tight supply of oil.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures added 5.15 cents to $4.1230 a gallon, while gasoline futures rose 2.56 cents to $3.5750 a gallon. Natural gas futures gained 13.7 cents to $13.526 per 1,000 cubic feet.
© Copyright The Globe and Mail
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Oil soars to record above $145
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Coal gets dusted As Does The TSX
TSX plunges 433 points
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
TORONTO — — The Toronto stock market plunged more than 400 points Wednesday, its biggest one-day drop in more than three months as investors worried that slowing economic conditions in North America and Europe will slash demand for metals and crude.
It was a broad-based retreat led by commodity stocks, but transportation stocks also fell sharply on concerns about lower commodity shipments and even the Toronto Stock Exchange energy sector backtracked despite record high oil prices.
The S&P/TSX composite index retreated 432.92 points to 14,034.11.
“The primary reason here is simply that there seems to be a disappearing level of confidence in our market,” said Fred Ketchen, manager of equity trading at Scotia Capital.
“Confidence has declined in the ability of our economy to maintain its head above water, many people are growing to believe that a recession in the U.S. is probably well-established now and the spillover into the Canadian economy is going to be more severe than many had figured.”
The TSX Venture Exchange was off 39.19 points to 2,596.59 while the Canadian dollar gained 0.61 of cent (U.S.) to 98.68 cents.
New York markets were also negative on high oil prices, factory orders that showed the weakest performance in three months in May and grim jobless news.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 166.75 points at 11,215.51, while the Nasdaq composite index was down 53.51 points at 2,251.46.
The S&P 500 index slipped 23.39 points to 1,261.52.
Worries about slowing economies have dogged investors for months.
There were hopes that the damage that started with the fallout from the collapsing U.S. housing sector could be contained.
But concerns about slowing global economies have heightened recently as oil prices inch closer to $150 a barrel and show no sign of abating despite signs of lower demand.
Investors worry that high energy prices are boosting inflation, pressuring central banks to raise interest rates, which could make the economic slowdown even worse.
The European Central Bank is expected to hike its key rate a quarter point Thursday to deal with higher inflation.
“Much more so than the Fed or the Bank of Canada, the ECB is focused on overall inflation, so high energy prices and a 4 per cent inflation rate have got the ECB spooked,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns deputy chief economist Doug Porter.
The tumble on the first day of third-quarter trading on the TSX came after a lopsided second-quarter performance.
“The TSX was up 4.5 per cent in the first half of the year,” observed Kate Warne, Canadian markets specialist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
“But energy and materials combined were up about 24 per cent and if you do the math, the rest of the TSX is down about 17 per cent.”
The base metals sector was by far the weakest TSX group Wednesday, down 7.5 per cent — a slide that didn't come as a huge surprise to many analysts.
“The last month or so, so much has been coming out about the slowdown in the global economy and the thing that has been surprising is the lack of connection back to the mining and metals sector,” added Ms. Warne.
“We've been worried about it, particularly as [the sector] kept climbing as a percentage of the TSX.
Sector heavyweight Teck Cominco Ltd. lost $4.11 (Canadian) to $45.06 even as copper prices shot up 15.3 cents to $4.0635 (U.S.) a pound on the Nymex, mainly because of a weakening greenback.
But the worst damage was reserved for coal stocks — Fording Canadian Coal Trust lost $15.80 (Canadian) to $81.70 and Western Canadian Coal Corp. plunged 96 cents to $8.
Financials were also a weak spot as investors worried about earnings prospects for banks.
The sector lost 2.16 per cent after Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney predicted investment bank Merrill Lynch will rack up $5.8-billion (U.S.) in writedowns for the second quarter. Merrill shares were off $1.10 to $31.15.
Royal Bank of Canada retreated $1.83 (Canadian) to $44 and Bank of Montreal declined $1.08 to $41.42.
The TSX energy sector fell 3.1 per cent despite a rise in the August crude contract in New York of $2.60 (U.S.) to $143.57 a barrel.
The jump to yet another record high came even as the U.S. Energy Department reported a weekly decline of two million barrels of crude oil inventories, while gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels.
Suncor Energy Inc. dropped $2.85 (Canadian) to $56.35 and EnCana Corp. moved down $2.19 to $91.17.
Talisman Energy Inc. stepped back $1.68 to $20.90 after an oil well operated by the company off the Norwegian coast turned out to be dry.
High oil costs continued to take a big bite out of transportation companies, as the industrials sector gave back almost 4 per cent. Canadian Pacific Railways lost $5.45 to $62.25 and Canadian National Railways declined $2.72 to $46.26.
Bombardier Inc. gave back 20 cents to $7.21 after German engineering firm Siemens AG was reported to have pulled out of the bidding for Toronto's streetcar replacement project. Only Bombardier and a small British manufacturer submitted bids.
U.S. indexes came under pressure after payroll processor ADP estimated a loss of 79,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, deeper than the expected loss of 20,000. This comes ahead of the U.S. government's employment report for June, being released Thursday, which was expected to show the economy shed 55,000 jobs last month.
On the positive side, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that factory orders rose 0.6 per cent in May after gaining 1.3 per cent in April.
General Motors Corp. was as major weight on the Dow after it was downgraded to underperform by Merrill Lynch, which cut its price target to $7 (U.S.) from $28 and warned that “bankruptcy is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate and significant incremental capital is not raised.” The auto maker's shares fell $1.77 to $9.98.
© Copyright The Globe and Mail
Coal gets dusted
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Investors were left scratching their heads as the commodity-heavy S[amp]amp;P/TSX composite index took a bath on Wednesday afternoon. It's not gold's fault: Gold rose to $946.50 (U.S.) an ounce. It's not crude oil's fault: Oil rose to $142.80 a barrel.
Indeed, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodities index rose 0.7 per cent on Wednesday afternoon, to a new high.
Instead, blame the downturn on coal. The price of coal fell 10 per cent in London, either on concerns that we're going to need less of it if the economic slowdown persists or because this is a “technical” correction caused by surging prices.
Either way, Fording Canadian Coal Trust plunged 13.3 per cent, to $84.58 (Canadian) – just one day after the coal producer hit a record high, with year-to-date gains of more than 150 per cent. The retreat also arrives just days after an analyst at CIBC World Markets raised his price target on the units to $100.
“This big selloff in the top performing names indicates that money managers and other institutional investors were most likely holding onto these names for window dressing purposes through the end of the quarter, only to take profits in them at the first chance they had,” said Bespoke Investment Group, on its blog, Think B.I.G.
For sure, Fording is not alone. Massey Energy Co. fell 10.9 per cent on Wednesday and James River Coal fell 11.6 per cent.
What's also problematic for Canada's benchmark index is that the decline in coal is also taking down the railroads, which depend on heavy coal traffic for a big chunk of their revenues. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. fell 6.5 per cent and Canadian National Railway Co. fell 5.1 per cent.
[amp]nbsp;
© Copyright The Globe and Mail
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
TORONTO — — The Toronto stock market plunged more than 400 points Wednesday, its biggest one-day drop in more than three months as investors worried that slowing economic conditions in North America and Europe will slash demand for metals and crude.
It was a broad-based retreat led by commodity stocks, but transportation stocks also fell sharply on concerns about lower commodity shipments and even the Toronto Stock Exchange energy sector backtracked despite record high oil prices.
The S&P/TSX composite index retreated 432.92 points to 14,034.11.
“The primary reason here is simply that there seems to be a disappearing level of confidence in our market,” said Fred Ketchen, manager of equity trading at Scotia Capital.
“Confidence has declined in the ability of our economy to maintain its head above water, many people are growing to believe that a recession in the U.S. is probably well-established now and the spillover into the Canadian economy is going to be more severe than many had figured.”
The TSX Venture Exchange was off 39.19 points to 2,596.59 while the Canadian dollar gained 0.61 of cent (U.S.) to 98.68 cents.
New York markets were also negative on high oil prices, factory orders that showed the weakest performance in three months in May and grim jobless news.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 166.75 points at 11,215.51, while the Nasdaq composite index was down 53.51 points at 2,251.46.
The S&P 500 index slipped 23.39 points to 1,261.52.
Worries about slowing economies have dogged investors for months.
There were hopes that the damage that started with the fallout from the collapsing U.S. housing sector could be contained.
But concerns about slowing global economies have heightened recently as oil prices inch closer to $150 a barrel and show no sign of abating despite signs of lower demand.
Investors worry that high energy prices are boosting inflation, pressuring central banks to raise interest rates, which could make the economic slowdown even worse.
The European Central Bank is expected to hike its key rate a quarter point Thursday to deal with higher inflation.
“Much more so than the Fed or the Bank of Canada, the ECB is focused on overall inflation, so high energy prices and a 4 per cent inflation rate have got the ECB spooked,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns deputy chief economist Doug Porter.
The tumble on the first day of third-quarter trading on the TSX came after a lopsided second-quarter performance.
“The TSX was up 4.5 per cent in the first half of the year,” observed Kate Warne, Canadian markets specialist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
“But energy and materials combined were up about 24 per cent and if you do the math, the rest of the TSX is down about 17 per cent.”
The base metals sector was by far the weakest TSX group Wednesday, down 7.5 per cent — a slide that didn't come as a huge surprise to many analysts.
“The last month or so, so much has been coming out about the slowdown in the global economy and the thing that has been surprising is the lack of connection back to the mining and metals sector,” added Ms. Warne.
“We've been worried about it, particularly as [the sector] kept climbing as a percentage of the TSX.
Sector heavyweight Teck Cominco Ltd. lost $4.11 (Canadian) to $45.06 even as copper prices shot up 15.3 cents to $4.0635 (U.S.) a pound on the Nymex, mainly because of a weakening greenback.
But the worst damage was reserved for coal stocks — Fording Canadian Coal Trust lost $15.80 (Canadian) to $81.70 and Western Canadian Coal Corp. plunged 96 cents to $8.
Financials were also a weak spot as investors worried about earnings prospects for banks.
The sector lost 2.16 per cent after Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney predicted investment bank Merrill Lynch will rack up $5.8-billion (U.S.) in writedowns for the second quarter. Merrill shares were off $1.10 to $31.15.
Royal Bank of Canada retreated $1.83 (Canadian) to $44 and Bank of Montreal declined $1.08 to $41.42.
The TSX energy sector fell 3.1 per cent despite a rise in the August crude contract in New York of $2.60 (U.S.) to $143.57 a barrel.
The jump to yet another record high came even as the U.S. Energy Department reported a weekly decline of two million barrels of crude oil inventories, while gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels.
Suncor Energy Inc. dropped $2.85 (Canadian) to $56.35 and EnCana Corp. moved down $2.19 to $91.17.
Talisman Energy Inc. stepped back $1.68 to $20.90 after an oil well operated by the company off the Norwegian coast turned out to be dry.
High oil costs continued to take a big bite out of transportation companies, as the industrials sector gave back almost 4 per cent. Canadian Pacific Railways lost $5.45 to $62.25 and Canadian National Railways declined $2.72 to $46.26.
Bombardier Inc. gave back 20 cents to $7.21 after German engineering firm Siemens AG was reported to have pulled out of the bidding for Toronto's streetcar replacement project. Only Bombardier and a small British manufacturer submitted bids.
U.S. indexes came under pressure after payroll processor ADP estimated a loss of 79,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, deeper than the expected loss of 20,000. This comes ahead of the U.S. government's employment report for June, being released Thursday, which was expected to show the economy shed 55,000 jobs last month.
On the positive side, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that factory orders rose 0.6 per cent in May after gaining 1.3 per cent in April.
General Motors Corp. was as major weight on the Dow after it was downgraded to underperform by Merrill Lynch, which cut its price target to $7 (U.S.) from $28 and warned that “bankruptcy is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate and significant incremental capital is not raised.” The auto maker's shares fell $1.77 to $9.98.
© Copyright The Globe and Mail
Coal gets dusted
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Investors were left scratching their heads as the commodity-heavy S[amp]amp;P/TSX composite index took a bath on Wednesday afternoon. It's not gold's fault: Gold rose to $946.50 (U.S.) an ounce. It's not crude oil's fault: Oil rose to $142.80 a barrel.
Indeed, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodities index rose 0.7 per cent on Wednesday afternoon, to a new high.
Instead, blame the downturn on coal. The price of coal fell 10 per cent in London, either on concerns that we're going to need less of it if the economic slowdown persists or because this is a “technical” correction caused by surging prices.
Either way, Fording Canadian Coal Trust plunged 13.3 per cent, to $84.58 (Canadian) – just one day after the coal producer hit a record high, with year-to-date gains of more than 150 per cent. The retreat also arrives just days after an analyst at CIBC World Markets raised his price target on the units to $100.
“This big selloff in the top performing names indicates that money managers and other institutional investors were most likely holding onto these names for window dressing purposes through the end of the quarter, only to take profits in them at the first chance they had,” said Bespoke Investment Group, on its blog, Think B.I.G.
For sure, Fording is not alone. Massey Energy Co. fell 10.9 per cent on Wednesday and James River Coal fell 11.6 per cent.
What's also problematic for Canada's benchmark index is that the decline in coal is also taking down the railroads, which depend on heavy coal traffic for a big chunk of their revenues. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. fell 6.5 per cent and Canadian National Railway Co. fell 5.1 per cent.
[amp]nbsp;
© Copyright The Globe and Mail
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