Stocks to buy in a recession: Nuthin'
Monday, March 03, 2008
When economists were still forecasting sunny skies ahead last year, Gary Shilling was one of the few who stuck out his neck and called for a U.S. recession by the fourth quarter of 2007 – a call that is beginning to look spot-on.
Now, far from updating his initial call with told-you-sos, Mr. Shilling – president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. Inc. – is taking things to the next step. Forget about a shallow recession; this one is going to be deep. And forget about making money on specific sectors of the stock market; the downturn will be broad.
“Yes, it’s puzzling that equity price declines so far have been small in the face of the rapidly expanding cancer in financial markets, which has metastasized in the consumer spending body,” he said in his monthly letter to clients.
His theory, though, is that investors are still pinning their hopes on a massive rescue effort from the U.S. Federal Reserve – which he figures will not help this time around because of the severity of the U.S. housing market downturn.
He looked at various industry groups that make up the S&P 500 and charted their results for the seven previous bear markets that were tied to U.S. recessions. Making money on the stock market certainly seemed like a fruitless task, even if you concentrated on defensives.
The household products group did fine during the 2000-02 bear market, rising 33 per cent. But it fell 35 per cent in the 1972-74 bear market. The life insurance group rose 27 per cent during the 1980-82 bear market, but fell 45 per cent in the 1968-70 bear market. Even major pharmaceuticals have an uneven record as defensives.
“In this environment, it’s best to prepare for further big stock declines.” Mr. Shilling said. “[W]e favour buying Treasury bonds and buying the dollar sometime soon, but the rest are sell recommendations – selling housing and related stocks, selling consumer discretionary stocks, selling commodities, selling commercial real estate, etc.”
© Copyright The Globe and Mail
And This:
Lord Black behind bars
PAUL WALDIE
Monday, March 03, 2008
Coleman, Fla. — Conrad Black drove into the Coleman Correction Complex in Coleman, Fla., with his wife Barbara Amiel Black just after noon EST on Monday. He arrived about 2 hours ahead of the court-imposed deadline for him to report to the prison.
He will now begin serving his 6.5 year sentence for fraud and obstruction of justice.
The Blacks arrived in a grey Cadillac Escalade and drove past a throng of media. When the SUV left 30 minutes later, Ms. Amiel Black could be seen in the back seat through the vehicle's tinted windows.
Lord Black will now be searched, fingerprinted and given a brief orientation. He will share a room in a dormitory like complex with about 100 other inmates, mostly men convicted of non-violent drug offences.
He will go through a brief orientation and receive four sets of clothing.
Eventually, he will also be assigned a job, at a starting rate of 12 cents an hour.
Coleman is one of the largest prison complexes in the U.S. with more than 7,000 inmates. It has low, medium and maximum security wings. There are about 2,000 inmates in the low-security unit.
Lord Black had asked to serve his time in a prison camp in Miami but the request was denied. Lord Black is British and in general foreigners are not allowed to serve time in prison camps.
The prison in Coleman is about a 4 hour drive from Lord Black's ocean front mansion in Palm Beach, Fla.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Stocks to buy in a recession: Nuthin' says Shilling
CRO=$$$$ Small Float , Mine in 2009,Millions lbs Copper +
 |
Canadian Arrow Mines, Ltd. (CRO: TSX-V) (the "Company") reports an exceptional intersection of high grade nickel copper mineralization from drilling at the Kenbridge Nickel Project in Northwestern Ontario. Diamond drill hole KB-07-180 assayed 2.95% Ni, 0.82% Cu, 0.07% Co over a core length of 21.5 metres, including a high grade section of 7.21% Ni, 0.67% Cu, 0.19% Co over 5.5 metres. This is the deepest hole that Arrow has completed on Kenbridge to date, with the intersection situated approximately 300 metres below the surface.
Mineralized diamond drill hole intervals reported are down hole core lengths only. NQ diameter drill core samples are split in half; one half being retained in its original core box and the second half sent to an independent commercial laboratory for analysis. Samples are analyzed by ISO 17025 accredited Accurassay Laboratories in Thunder Bay, Ontario. Samples analyzed for base metals (nickel, copper, and cobalt) are digested using aqua regia with an atomic absorption finish. The exploration program is being carried out under the direction of the Company's Vice President of Exploration, Todd Keast P. Geo., a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101. The information in this release was prepared under the direction of Kim Tyler, P. Geo., President of the Company, a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101. About Canadian Arrow Mines, Ltd. Canadian Arrow Mines, Ltd. is an established Canadian exploration and development Company committed to developing and advancing base metal deposits close to existing infrastructure through exploration, development and acquisition. Shares of Canadian Arrow Mines trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "CRO".
Posts
