Thursday, December 23, 2010

Oil hits 2year high

Back to Oil prices jump to 2-year-high

Oil prices jump to 2-year-high

December 22, 2010

NEW YORK — Oil prices jumped above $90 (U.S.) a barrel Wednesday to settle at that level for the first time in 26 months as a third straight weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories and cold weather on both sides of the Atlantic spurred pre-holiday buying.

U.S. crude stockpiles fell 5.3 million barrels last week, bringing the past three weeks’ declines to 19 million barrels, roughly equivalent to one day of U.S. fuel consumption. It was the biggest three-week drop since 1998.

Companies have drawn down inventories for year-end accounting purposes, analysts said.

Also, U.S. data showed the American economy picked up in the third quarter, signaling a more solid pace of recovery and an improving appetite for oil.

A Reuters poll released Wednesday showed a surge in fuel demand in the fourth quarter sent 2010 demand growth to near record levels, adding support to prices in recent weeks, with further increases expected in 2011 as the global economy improves.

U.S. economic data released Wednesday came in mixed, with gross domestic product growth revised upward to an annualized rate of 2.6 per cent from 2.5 per cent, below economists’ expectations and reflecting higher than previously estimated inventory accumulation.

Data also showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in November.

U.S. crude for February delivery settled 66 cents higher at $90.48 (U.S.) a barrel, the highest closing price since Oct. 3, 2008. It earlier touched $90.80.

Analysts now think crude oil’s next target price is $93.05.

In London, ICE February Brent crude gained 41 cents to $93.61 (U.S.) a barrel.

“With two days to go until Christmas Eve risk markets have ignited the afterburner, reinforcing one more time the all-pervasive mantra throughout 2010, ‘What crisis?,”’ JP Morgan analysts said in a note.

A Reuters poll of more than 70 economists this month forecast U.S. GDP to rise 2.7 per cent in 2011, up sharply from 2.3 per cent in a November poll.

With 2010 demand showing the biggest gains since 2004 and expectations of a modest increase in 2011, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could be pressured to open the taps next year, another Reuters poll showed.

The poll of 12 top oil-tracking analysts showed that oil demand this year had recovered far faster than anyone predicted early in 2010 and, while growth is expected to slow in 2011, it will still reach a new all-time high.

This year “turned out to be a year of recovery, with economic and oil demand growth clearly beating expectations,” David Wech at JBC Energy in Vienna said. barrels per day next year, OPEC could have to increase output by 800,000 barrels per day to keep pace with demand, the poll showed.

OPEC met this month and agreed to hold oil output at current levels, even as prices move to the top of the preferred range flagged by many members.

While kingpin Saudi Arabia said it favoured a price range of $70 to $80 (U.S.) a barrel, other members, such as Kuwait, pegged $90 as a preferred top.

Ministers from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, which includes OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Kuwait, will meet for two days starting on Friday.

Oil found support from forecasts for cold weather in northern Europe and the United States, with U.S. heating oil demand expected to average 4.6 per cent above normal this week.

“Probably what’s been the bigger factor with price has been the weather. It’s cold in Europe. It’s cold in China. And that’s pushing spot demand,” said Mark Kellstrom, an analyst at Strategic Energy Research and Capital LLC in New Jersey.

AccuWeather.com expects temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, the world’s largest heating oil market, to average mostly below normal for the next week, with slightly milder readings late this month.

In Europe, fresh snow forecasts threatened to prolong chaos caused by a cold snap, with airlines and rail networks struggling to restore normal services.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Pescod Plus The Little Book of Commodity Investing




John Stephenson, author of The Little Book of Commodity Investing and a portfolio manager with First Asset Investment Management in Toronto, to tell us why commodities are booming and what investors should do about it.

Many commodities have had huge gains already. Isn’t it too late to jump in?

The average length of a commodity cycle is 20 years and, even accounting for the rise in commodities at the start of 2000, we are at most four innings into the rally. The average mine takes the better part of a decade and more than $1-billion to bring into service, which is why the cycle is so long. What’s more, when commodity prices are high, manufacturers have difficulty passing on these raw material increases in their finished products, so their margins and stock prices tend to suffer. Since rising raw material prices are inflationary and higher interest rates tend to follow higher inflation, bonds suffer when commodities zoom. Commodities zig when bonds and stocks zag, so if you're not considering commodities, why not?

What’s the biggest factor driving prices higher?

In the long term, all that matters for commodity prices is supply and demand. To understand demand is to understand China, which is the engine of demand growth. After more than two decades of underinvestment in commodity production and [then] the global financial crisis, supply is nowhere to be found. Copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange represent just eight days of global consumption – a very tight market.

During the 1960s and 1970s, around 75 million people entered the global middle class in Europe, Japan and North America. This time around, hundreds of millions of people in Asia are entering the global middle class while the supply situation is way worse. Prices will go higher and stay higher for longer than anyone suspects. Eventually, supply will adjust and demand will be satisfied and the bull market in commodities will be over – it just won't be any time soon.

What’s your favourite commodity?

Oil. It's a miracle fuel that powers your car, buses, airplanes and is used to make perfumes, plastics and other everyday items and it's cheaper than orange juice on a volumetric basis.

Least favourite?

Natural gas. We have way too much of it in North America and U.S. producers are drilling not because it makes economic sense, but to retain their land base. With no producer discipline, prices are likely to remain in the basement for the foreseeable future.

What’s an appropriate portfolio weighting in commodities?

During the 1980s and 1990s, the average investor would have held a zero weight toward commodities. Today, an appropriate weight would be much higher, closer to 40 per cent or more. Of course, your age, risk tolerance and level of investment sophistication will figure prominently in this decision and may cause this weighting to fall.

What’s the cheapest way to get exposure to commodities?

The cheapest way is through exchange-traded funds that are backed by physical commodities. That way, investors get low fees, and the price tracks the price in the here and now as investors would expect.

What sort of allocation do you recommend between the various commodity classes?

Of your total portfolio, including the non-commodities portion, gold should represent 10 to 15 per cent. Of the commodities portion, energy should be 30 to 35 per cent, base metals 25 per cent, agricultural should be 25 per cent and bulk commodities, such as coal and iron ore, around 20 per cent.

So you think gold still has room to run. What about all those poor folks who bought gold back in 1980 at $850 (U.S.) an ounce, only to watch the price collapse?

The U.S. has in the past used the printing press to flood the money supply with more dollars and, in essence, debase the dollar. They did it after the Second World War and they did it after the Vietnam War, and those were both times that gold started to soar. That’s why with QE2 [a second round of quantitative easing] being floated there’s a lot of concern that’s what the U.S. intends to do – inflate away their problems. You want to hold gold if that scenario unfolds. If there’s any time to buy gold, it would be now.

What’s in your personal portfolio?

All of the things I say. I have about a 15 per cent weighting in gold, mainly gold producers but I also have the SPDR Gold ETF [GLD-N], which is probably the most common. And I have well over half my portfolio in commodity-oriented stocks. I also have some dividend stocks, too, a few bond funds and some cash for buying opportunities down the road.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

GPR-T Time To Buy?


Small Public Float Of Shares= Fast Rising Stock On Any Push From Market Makers




Anonymous Accumulation on GPR


House Positions for C:GPR from 20101221 to 20101221
HouseBought$ValAveSold$ValAveNet$Net
15 UBS204,748503,5072.45911,05027,2562.467193,698-476,251
7 TD Sec135,950334,9832.46457,523142,0352.46978,427-192,948
2 RBC108,295265,5742.45232,13379,0492.4676,162-186,525
1 Anonymous159,600392,9262.462120,500296,2252.45839,100-96,701
85 Scotia96,115235,4842.4558,900145,2502.46637,215-90,234
36 Latimer15,00036,9002.46015,000-36,900
46 Macquarie15,00036,6002.44015,000-36,600
5 Penson6,00014,7602.4606,000-14,760
6 Union6,90016,8362.441,5003,7502.505,400-13,086
124 Questrade2,5006,1052.44202,500-6,105
19 Desjardins15,43037,9142.45713,67133,7002.4651,759-4,214
89 Raymond James1002452.450100-245
101 Newedge4,90012,0432.4585,00012,4202.484-100377
39 Merrill Lynch01002442.44-100244
81 HSBC02004882.44-200488
13 Instinet4009762.449852,4422.479-5851,466
58 Qtrade1,0002,4502.452,3005,6772.468-1,3003,227
90 Barclays03,1007,5642.44-3,1007,564
14 ITG4,50011,1102.4697,85419,3102.459-3,3548,200
33 Canaccord18,30044,7782.44722,18554,3292.449-3,8859,551
9 BMO Nesbitt8,20320,0612.44612,90031,7382.46-4,69711,677
99 Jitney33,60082,9492.46947,800117,0392.449-14,20034,090
79 CIBC120,660296,2242.455150,300369,0602.455-29,64072,836
80 National Bank0409,2001,004,8492.456-409,2001,004,849
TOTAL957,2012,352,4252.458957,2012,352,4252.45800


Great Panther Intersects Multiple Zones of High Grade Silver-Gold in Step-Out Drilling at San Ignacio Property, Guanajuato

VAOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Dec. 21, 2010) - GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX:GPR) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that the second section of diamond drill holes at the San Ignacio Mine Property, Guanajuato has intersected numerous zones of silver-gold mineralization, some of which appear to correlate well with the first two holes and others that appear to be new zones. Two holes, ESI10-03 and 04, were drilled easterly at angles of -40° and -60° from a drill setup approximately 45 metres north of holes ESI10-01 and 02 (see news releases dated October 28th & November 15th 2010).

Hole ESI10-03 intersected 15 silver-gold mineralized zones, including the Melladito zone, which returned 212g/t silver and 1.99g/t gold over 4.3 metres, the Nombre de Dios zone with 850g/t silver and 3.75g/t gold over 3.1 metres, and a footwall stockwork zone with 680g/t silver and 1.94g/t gold over 3.85 metres. The fourth hole, ESI10-04, was drilled under ESI10-03 and intersected five silver-gold mineralized zones, including the Melladito zone with 240g/t silver and 0.8g/t gold over 5.8 metres, the Nombre de Dios zone with 2,020g/t silver and 7.80g/t gold over 0.9 metres, and a footwall stockwork zone with 660g/t silver and 1.73g/t gold over 3.25 metres, including 0.80 metres assaying 2,380g/t silver and 6.57g/t gold.

Both ESI10-03 and 04 were longer holes, and as such drilled deeper and further east, than ESI10-01 and 02. New and more easterly footwall stockwork zones were intersected in ESI10-03 and 04, the interpretation of which is still tentative, but the Company is pleased that previously unknown silver-gold mineralized zones are being intersected as the drilling is extended eastward. Highlights of holes ESI10-03 and 04 are presented in the tables below, while a plan map showing the location of Great Panther's San Ignacio drill-holes, and an interpretative cross section, are posted on the Company web-site under the Guanajuato Mine Complex section.

The deepest stockwork intersection in ESI10-04 (3.25 metres of 660g/t silver and 1.73g/t gold) is at a vertical depth below surface of approximately 420 metres. This may correlate with the zone of similar grades and width at the bottom of hole ESI10-03 (3.85 metres of 680g/t silver and 1.94g/t gold) and represents a significant vertical interval of high grade silver-gold mineralization, down to 1,980 metres above sea level ("masl"). Typically in the La Luz vein camp, the bottoms of the mineralized zones are at 2,100 – 2,150 masl. Interpretation of the various structures is ongoing and as down-dip infill drilling commences a better understanding will emerge.

In light of the success of the 2010 drilling at San Ignacio, Great Panther's Board of Directors has approved a new 2011 budget of $2.8 million for the exploration and development of the San Ignacio property. As soon as the appropriate permits are in place, an expanded drilling program will commence. Potential sites to establish a portal for an underground ramp are also being evaluated. Due to the proximity of the San Ignacio Property to the Company's main Guanajuato operation, any mineralization intersected in the course of underground exploration and development can be trucked to the plant for processing. In this way, cash flow provided by the additional tonnage can be used to offset the cost of the exploration and development program.

The San Ignacio Mine property covers approximately 4 kilometres of strike length on the La Luz vein system, which is parallel to, and 5 kilometres west of, the principal Veta Madre structure that hosts the main Guanajuato mines (see map on website at http://www.greatpanther.com/i/pdf/GTO-SanIgnacio-LocationMap.pdf). The La Luz district marks the site of the first discovery of silver in the area, in the year 1548, which led to the discovery of the Veta Madre silver-gold deposits in 1550. It comprises a swarm of generally north-northwest striking, vertical to west dipping quartz veins and breccias with associated low sulphidation silver-gold mineralization, along an approximate 8 kilometre long trend.

Highlights of Drill Hole ESI10-03:

SAN IGNACIO, ESI10-03, -40, N49E, 416.9m
ZONE From (m) To (m) Width (m) Au (g/t) Ag (g/t)
Melladito hanging wall 57.70 58.00 0.30 0.57 282
Melladito hanging wall 96.95 97.65 0.70 0.66 162
Melladito hanging wall 118.45 118.90 0.45 1.03 336
Melladito hanging wall 131.30 131.50 0.20 3.75 590
Melladito hanging wall 146.95 147.15 0.20 1.18 220
Melladito zone 148.30 149.90 1.60 1.03 33
149.90 151.35 1.45 1.83 128
151.35 152.60 1.25 3.39 539
composite 148.30 152.60 4.30 1.99 212
Intermediate 220.10 220.25 0.15 1.01 331
Intermediate 233.10 233.45 0.35 0.56 140
Intermediate 254.10 254.40 0.30 1.27 23
Nombre de Dios zone 268.45 269.35 0.90 3.77 823
269.35 270.60 1.25 4.76 1130
270.60 271.00 0.40 2.38 283
271.00 271.55 0.55 2.39 668
composite 268.45 271.55 3.10 3.75 850
Footwall vein 299.60 299.80 0.20 3.47 20
Footwall vein 306.45 306.85 0.40 3.20 251
Footwall vein 342.90 343.05 0.15 20.40 342
Footwall stockwork 412.35 413.45 1.10 0.99 357
413.45 414.60 1.15 1.74 216
414.60 415.40 0.80 1.42 341
415.40 416.20 0.80 4.04 2128
composite 412.35 416.20 3.85 1.94 680

Highlights of Drill Hole ESI10-04:

SAN IGNACIO, ESI10-04, -60, N55E, 570.0m
ZONE From (m) To (m) Width (m) Au (g/t) Ag (g/t)
Melladito zone 218.10 219.00 0.90 0.53 303
219.00 220.75 1.75 0.2 76
220.75 221.90 1.15 0.61 77
221.90 223.10 1.20 1.81 345
223.10 223.90 0.80 1.21 606
composite 218.10 223.90 5.80 0.80 240
Melladito footwall 232.50 233.15 0.65 0.76 159
Nombre de Dios zone 399.00 399.90 0.90 7.8 2020
Footwall vein 474.10 474.40 0.30 4.67 2020
Footwall stockwork 484.35 485.70 1.35 0.18 178
485.70 486.80 1.10 0.1 1
486.80 487.60 0.80 6.57 2380
composite 484.35 487.60 3.25 1.73 660

Robert F. Brown, P. Eng. and Vice President of Exploration for the Company is the Qualified Person for the Guanajuato Mine, under the meaning of NI 43-101. A full QA/QC program is being followed including the regular insertion of splits, blanks, and standards into the core sampling sequence. Analysis of the drill core samples is being conducted at the Guanajuato Mine on-site laboratory, independently operated by SGS.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

"Robert A. Archer"

Robert A. Archer, President & CEO

This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) (together, "forward-looking statements"). Such forward-looking statements may include but are not limited to the Company's plans for production at its Guanajuato and Topia Mines in Mexico, exploring its other properties in Mexico, the overall economic potential of its properties, the availability of adequate financing and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements to be materially different. Such factors include, among others, risks and uncertainties relating to potential political risks involving the Company's operations in a foreign jurisdiction, uncertainty of production and cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses, physical risks inherent in mining operations, currency fluctuations, fluctuations in the price of silver, gold and base metals, completion of economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, the inability or failure to obtain adequate financing on a timely basis, and other risks and uncertainties, including those described in the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2009 and reports on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at www.sec.gov and Material Change Reports filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and available at www.sedar.com.

Standard & Poor's Listed

SEC 20-F Statement Filed

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

604 685 6465 B&D Capital 604 899 4303 (FAX) info@greatpanther.com www.greatpanther.com 

©2010 CTVglobemedia Publishing Inc. All rights reserved.or.


Great Panther's Guanajuato at 5.45 million oz AgEq M+I

2010-12-15 18:04 ET - News Release

Mr. Robert Archer reports

GREAT PANTHER UPDATES MINERAL RESOURCE/RESERVE ESTIMATES AT THE GUANAJUATO MINE

Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates of Vancouver, B.C., has completed an NI 43-101-compliant mineral resource/reserve estimate on the Cata Clavo, Los Pozos and Santa Margarita zones at Great Panther Silver Ltd.'s wholly owned Guanajuato mine in Guanajuato, Mexico. The new measured and indicated mineral resource contains 5.45 million ounces silver equivalent. Inferred mineral resources are estimated at 2,678,000 ounces silver equivalent. The measured and indicated mineral resources include 4,372,000 Ag eq ounces categorized as proven and probable mineral reserves, using a cut-off grade of 185 grams per tonne silver equivalent. This is the first time that NI 43-101-compliant reserves have been estimated for the Guanajuato mine and is a positive step in confirming the long-term viability of this historical operation.

The new resource base represents a 53-per-cent increase over the previous resource estimate (for just the Cata Clavo; see Stockwatch news release of June 30, 2009), even after deducting the production from that zone over the last year and a half. This demonstrates the company's ability not only to replace what is being mined, but to increase the resource base and extend the mine life with additional drilling. There were no compliant resources at Guanajuato when Great Panther purchased the property in 2005, and most of the more-than-4.5-million-silver-equivalent ounces that the company has mined from Guanajuato since 2006 have come from non-compliant resources.

Mining of the three zones, Cata, Los Pozos and Santa Margarita, currently accounts for most of the Guanajuato metal production. Resource drilling is continuing to delineate new resources and reserves on the upper and depth extensions of Los Pozos and the southeast strike extension of Santa Margarita but also includes Guanajuatito, Valenciana, San Telesforo and the depth extensions of the Rayas Clavo, none of which are included in this resource estimation but which will be included in the 2011 update. In addition, drilling of the very promising San Ignacio project will continue through 2011 and will make a significant contribution to future resources for the Guanajuato mine. As such, the resource base will continue to build at Guanajuato, and it is the company's stated objective to delineate approximately 25 million to 30 million Ag eq ounces here by 2012.

For the year 2010, production from Guanajuato is estimated to be 1.02 million Ag ounces and 6,720 Au ounces (1.44 million Ag eq ounces). The resource and reserve estimates, together with the significant potential of the continuing drilling programs, positively support the achievement of the growth strategy objectives for Guanajuato.

Silver equivalent values were applied to computer-generated block models to define the mineral resource. The mineral reserve cut-off value of 185 grams per tonne (6.0 ounces per ton) silver equivalent is the metal content contained in one tonne of ore for which the net revenue (net of smelter and refining costs) is equal to the average full operating costs to mine and process one tonne of ore. Scott Wilson RPA used medium-term projected metal prices of $17.67 (U.S.) per ounce Ag and $1,150 (U.S.) per ounce Au (relative price ratio of 65 gold to 1 silver), 2010 concentrate sales contract terms, and typical plant performance metal recoveries and concentrate grades to calculate the net value. Total operating costs at Guanajuato, including mining, milling, and general and administration costs, are currently $85 (U.S.)/tonne. Experience gained from mining the veins by the cut-and-fill mining method and the upward trend in metal prices determined that the appropriate cut-off value for defining mineral resources at Guanajuato to be set at 136 g/t (4.3 ounces/t) silver equivalent. The use of a lower cut-off for resources reflects the less stringent guidelines for resources versus reserves.

Based upon these limits, the measured and indicated mineral resource contains 5.45 million Ag eq ounces, including 2,495,000 Ag eq ounces in the measured category and 2,956,000 Ag eq ounces in the indicated category. Inferred resources are estimated at 2,678,000 Ag eq ounces of the measured and indicated mineral resource, and 4,372,000 Ag eq ounces are classified as proven and probable mineral reserve, using a cut-off of 185 g/t silver equivalent. The proven mineral reserve is estimated at 1,935,000 Ag eq ounces, while the probable mineral reserve is estimated at 2,438,000 Ag eq ounces. Breakdowns for silver and gold can be found in the attached tables.

The mineral resource estimate for Guanajuato was prepared using block models constrained by 3-D wire frames of the principal mineralized zones. Separate block models, comprising arrays of 2.5-by-2.5-by-2.5-metre blocks, were constructed for each of the Cata, Los Pozos and Santa Margarita zones. Grades for gold and silver were interpolated into the blocks using inverse distance cubed weighting. Block model graphics, maps, sections and previous news releases can be viewed on the company's website. The samples consisted of diamond drill and production chip samples. Scott Wilson RPA capped high gold and silver grades at a range of levels depending on the zone and the type of sample (drill hole or chip). The estimates were classified according to the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum definition standards on mineral resources and mineral reserves and, as such, are consistent with the requirements of NI 43-101. The estimate was prepared using GEMS software, which is a commercially available package, commonly used in the industry.

The Cata Clavo is separated into four zones, namely the Veta Madre, Alto 1, Alto 1a and Alto 2. The upper limit of the main Veta Madre zone is set at the floor of the 460-metre level as it has been extensively mined out above this level. Mining of the three higher-grade Alto zones is under way, using a modified mining plan. The mineralized zones used in the resource represent an approximate 100-metre vertical height and a strike length of approximately 150 metres. Los Pozos zone is a downward-tapering zone of 30- to 90-metre strike length and widths to 12 metres. The mineral resource estimate is from the 390 level up to the bottom of the 270-level sill pillar. The Santa Margarita is separated into four zones, namely the HW stockwork, breccia, FW A and FW B. The mineral resource estimate was calculated from below the floor of the 390 level to the 600 level along a strike length of more than 200 metres.

The Veta Madre (at Cata and Los Pozos areas) and the Cata Alto 1 zone are complex quartz-dominated stockwork and breccia zones of pyrite and argentite mineralization with argillic and propylitic alteration in the footwall shale. Footwall to the Veta Madre is a barren silica breccia with large angular shale fragments. The Alto 1a and Alto 2 zones are silica-rich brecciated zones within a hangingwall diorite dike. The Santa Margarita zones in the Rayas area are silica-rich brecciated hangingwall conglomerates, andesite and La Sirena quartz porphyry intrusive. All zones strike generally northwest-southeast and dip 45 degrees southwest.

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