Uranium readies for revival

“Almost every single producer has downgraded their forecast for 2008 production guidance,” said Haywood Securities analyst Geordie Mark. “It's something like 5.5 million pounds already downgraded ... when production last year was around 107 million pounds, it's a big deal.”

With a tighter supply, the spot price for uranium climbed another $2 (U.S.) to $55 per pound the past week. That's up from a two-year low of $44 touched in October, when funds and investors sold off uranium supplies and equities.

Spot prices peaked at $136 a pound in June, 2007, compared with $7 in 2000.

The world's nuclear reactors require an estimated 170 million pounds of uranium annually, said Mr. Talbot, who forecasts supply at 107 million pounds this year.

There are nearly 440 nuclear reactors producing electricity around the world, with construction under way on 35 plants, notably in China, South Korea, Japan and Russia, according to the World Nuclear Association. Construction of a further 60 reactors is forecast in the next 15 years.

Against that backdrop, Mr. Talbot said the time is right for investors to warm up to uranium stocks.

“These things trade on the spot price and the spot price seems to have bottomed at $44. Now it looks like it's rising due to supply-demand fundamentals,” he said.

“What we notice, when the stocks rise, is that they rise fairly quickly. You would rather be in the space early than sitting on the sidelines.”

Among producers, he likes Paladin Energy , which recently hiked estimates for its Kayelekera project in Malawi and its Langer Heinrich mine in Australia. He said Uranium One [UUU-T]could benefit from its low-cost operations if uranium prices do not continue climbing.

Among juniors, he prefers “cashed-up” UR Energy, which sees production at its Wyoming project in 2010, and Athabasca Basin explorers UEX Corp and Hathor Exploration .

Mr. Talbot also likes Strateco Resources [RSC-T], which he said is the only junior currently in the permitting stage. It is seeking permits for its Matoush project in Quebec.

Inventory funds, such as Canada's Uranium Participation Corp [U-T], are a good way to enter the sector with lower risk, Mr. Mark said.

“The metal is already there, it's housed, so all you're doing is (being) exposed to changes in, effectively, the metal price, which we think will rise over the coming year.”

Analysts also say merger and acquisition activity is set to sweep the sector, in deals with potential to enrich investors. Buyers appear willing to pay prices well above stock market valuations for assets, said Mr. Talbot, pointing to Forsys Metals [FSY-T], which was sold recently at a 51 per cent premium.

“We're right at the cusp, in the sense that the companies are getting closer and closer to being cash-strapped and requiring financing,” Mr. Mark said. “M&A is going to happen, particularly because there are very few new players that are going to be producers in the next five years.”

Stocks: Brace for a rocky week ahead

Stocks: Brace for a rocky week ahead

Investors await retail sales figures, and the latest readings on the health of the economy, with a close eye on the labor market.

Ben Rooney and Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writers
November 29, 2008: 10:13 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors may be in for another challenging week as the market braces for the fallout from Black Friday sales and as a flurry of economic reports continue painting a dour picture.

"What would be more significant would be if stocks react positively [this] week in spite of bad news from the retailers," noted John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Capital Management. "That would suggest that the market is starting to look forward."

Stocks managed gains in last week's holiday-shortened week, with all three major gauges rising after 3 straight weeks of declines.

The week ended with "Black Friday," the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Investors are expecting dismal retail sales as the weak economy continues weighing on household budgets.

Sales are going to be "really bad," predicted Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams in New York. "The consensus is that parents will buy presents for their kids but not for each other."

But first results Saturday from retail research firm ShopperTrak RCT indicated a 3% gain in Black Friday sales from a year ago, although there was some concern about whether the sales could be sustained.

In addition, investors will be keeping an eye on a slew of economic reports, including readings on manufacturing, construction, factory orders and the labor market.

Thursday's weekly jobless claims report is "the only thing that matters [and] it's going to be a horror show," Rovelli said.

The jobs picture could get even darker on Friday when the government's closely watched monthly jobs report comes out. The unemployment rate is expected to climb to 6.8% from 6.5%.

Automakers will also be in focus amid growing bets that the industry will receive a government bailout after all. GM (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Chrysler's pleas were rebuffed earlier this month, but the group will appeal to Congress a second time this week.

Over the past five days, the Dow gained nearly 10%, the S&P 500 surged 12% and the Nasdaq rose almost 11%. The Dow's winning streak marked the first time the blue-chip index held gains for five days in a row since November 2007.

Stocks had rallied last week as President-elect Barack Obama announced his economic team, and the government unveiled a plan to pump $800 billion into the economy to get banks to lend to consumers and small businesses.

The gains were a strong end to a brutal month. In November, the Dow lost 5%, the S&P 500 lost 7% and the Nasdaq lost 11%.
Economy

Monday: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases what is expected to be a grim report on manufacturing in the morning. November ISM is expected to fall to a 26-year low of 38, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, versus a reading of 38.9 in October.

Construction spending likely fell in October, with economists expecting the government report to decline by 0.9% after it fell by 0.3% in September.

Also on Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will give a speech on the markets and economy at the Fortune 500 forum in Washington.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also speaking Monday. He will be in Texas, talking about the Fed's policies in the financial crisis at the meeting of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce.

Tuesday: The automakers have until Tuesday to submit proposals for how they would use $25 billion in taxpayer money to make their companies "viable."

The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing next Friday on the proposals and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a hearing sometime during the week too.

Separately Tuesday, monthly auto and truck sales figures for November will be released during the normal trading session. October auto sales were the weakest in 25 years. (Full story)

Wednesday: The ISM releases its report on the services sector of the economy. The November services sector index is expected to fall to 42.6 from 44.4 in October.

Payroll services firm ADP releases its report on private sector employment in November, ahead of the big national report Friday. Employers are expected to have cut 173,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 157,000 jobs in October.

Also, the revised reading on third-quarter productivity is due in the morning, while the Fed's "Beige Book" reading on the economy is due in the afternoon.

Thursday: Factory orders are expected to have fallen 2.7% in October, when the government releases its report in the morning. Orders fell 2.5% in September.

The weekly jobless claims report is due in the morning, as well as November sales from the nation's retailers. October sales were disastrous as retailers continue to struggle with attracting consumers in an economic downturn. (Full story)

Also, before the market opens, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL, Fortune 500) is slated to release its quarterly financial report. Toll gave a glimpse into its state of affairs in early November, when it said revenue dropped 41% but also noted it had enough cash on hand to weather the turmoil.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak about housing and housing finance in Washington, D.C., at the President's Conference on Homeownership and Mortgage Initiative.

Friday: The November jobs report is released in the morning. Employers are expected to have cut 300,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 240,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 6.8% from 6.5% in the previous month.

Source

Why Such Wild Market Swings In Last Hour?

For years, the rap on professional basketball games has been that nothing exciting happens until the last two minutes.

Now the same might be said of the U.S. stock markets.

In the last year or so, investors have started to see sessions with massive moves in the waning minutes. Since Sept. 15, a day after Lehman Brothers collapsed in bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch (MER) sold itself in desperation to Bank of America (BAC), the trend has been amplified -- there have been dozens of last-minute selloffs and buying sprees.

Last Friday was a prime example. After wavering in and out of positive territory all day, the markets took off with about an hour left in the session after news broke that New York Federal Reserve Chairman Timothy Geithner was going to be nominated as the next Treasury Secretary.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 500 points in about an hour.

At least, that move was ostensibly prompted by news.

Consider Oct. 16, when the Dow jumped 401 points -- nearly all of it in the last few minutes -- after being down more than 400 points earlier in the session.

Here’s what Michael James, senior equity trader at Wedbush Securities, told FOXBusiness.com that day: “There’s very little rhyme or reason to these moves. Emotion and sentiment are driving the markets in both directions.”

On Oct. 28, the Dow rose 889 points, most of it in the last hour. Here’s James again: “It was pretty hard to figure out why we were up 400 points … let alone 900 points. Sellers completely walked away and there was a massive scramble to buy stocks … It was feeding on itself in the last half hour.”

November has been a lot of the same: On Nov. 13th the Dow rose 400 points in the last hour. The next day it fell 350 points in the last half hour.

The reasons for the late day madness are both technical and emotional.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jeffries & Co., said the shift away from human oversight to electronic trading systems has contributed significantly to the wild late-day swings.

Computers are programmed to respond to certain triggers, such as selling or buying a stock when it hits a certain price, and they will respond no matter what. Humans are obviously more capable of discerning between panic and euphoric buying and selling.

The phasing out of specialists -- essentially market traffic cops who for decades patrolled the floor of the New York Stock Exchange -- has made it “hard to keep a fair and orderly market. It’s an unintended consequence of electronic trading,” said Hogan.

Another important dynamic has been fund managers under order to “raise cash.”

Aware that many of their investors are looking to get out of equity markets, fund managers have found themselves in need a certain amount of cash at the end of the day in order to fill redemption orders.

If by 3 p.m. the fund manager hasn’t raised enough money to cover his redemptions, it’s time for a reassessment in strategy, one that usually includes a far more aggressive approach.

“At that point you take the gloves off,” said Hogan. “You tend to sell stock indiscriminately and sell what you can, not what you want. There is no thought of fundamentals, you’re simply raising cash.”

Richard Peterson, an author and expert on investor psychology who recently opened a $10 million hedge fund with his firm MarketPsy Capital, explained how the technical can quickly turn emotional.

“Friday was really stunning,” he said, referring to the powerful and unexpected buying spree in the last hour of trading on Nov. 21.

It’s a situation that has played out over and over again in recent months as the financial crisis has left investors nervous and fearful of being caught on the wrong end of a trend.

“It’s forced buying and selling that cascades on itself,” said Peterson.

On Nov. 21 two pieces of information were in play -- Geithner’s pending nomination and optimism that a government rescue was in the works for Citigroup (C). In any case, investors began buying and others quickly got on board.

Peterson said the sudden swings tend to occur when “there is anticipation for the resolution of some set of uncertainties,” in Friday’s case who will replace Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and what will stop the bleeding at Citigroup.

“People start betting one way or the other toward the end of the day, then others feel there must be an answer, that somebody knows something they don’t,” said Peterson. “In a really chaotic market, people take information from price -- they get their sense of where things are going from the price of the stock, not from any news.”

In other words, investors are getting “their cues from what other people are doing. They don’t have a clue so they watch what others are doing,” he said.

Market watchers say what’s really needed is consistency, a string of measured gains -- 75 points, 80 points, 90 points -- to start laying the groundwork for a genuine sense of stability and confidence.

It would be a welcome replacement for the fear-triggered volatility that has been giving investors whiplash for months.

Technical Signals Worth Your Attention-Carrigan

Is the bear just playing dead?

TheStar.com - Business - Is the bear just playing dead?

Despite bargain hunting, sudden burst of optimism, the answer really does depend on whom you ask

November 29, 2008 James Daw

Global stock markets shot higher this week, producing the sort of quick gains that most investors would be delighted to see in an entire year.

Toronto S&P/TSX composite index rose nearly 14 per cent, while New York's S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average rose roughly 12 per cent and 10 per cent respectively.

These gains barely dented the losses of recent months, but the sudden burst of optimism and bargain hunting may have you asking: Is the bear market over? Has the next bull cycle begun?
The answer will depend on whom you ask, but it's safe to say nobody knows for sure. We've been hit by too many shocks in a matter of weeks to think they will be the last.

Bob Gorman, chief portfolio strategist at TD Waterhouse, thinks major markets are roughly in the range of what could turn out to be the true bottom, even if this week's gains are quickly wiped out over the next few weeks.

"We had lows in October, then we recently revisited those lows a little more than a week ago – and those sorts of levels represent pretty cheap prices," he said yesterday. "We will probably find a bottom around those levels."

But that's not what Robert Prechter Jr. and his acolytes at Elliott Wave International Inc. in Gainesville, Ga., are thinking. Their theory is that if you, dear reader, still care the slightest about stock prices, they still have a long way to fall.

The author of Conquer The Crash, published in 2002, plus a dozen other books and hundreds of newsletter commentaries has persuaded his true followers not to declare this bear market over until we see the "outright death of the equity culture."

Prechter has forecast all manner of sweeping social developments during this latest "supercycle" of extreme pessimism, including the rise of socialism in the U.S., the collapse of America's social security system, lower hem lines, violent race relations and a decline in the popularity of restaurants and Shakespeare.

Hey, I'm not making this stuff up; he is.

But so far in 2008, Prechter and his crew have declared themselves more right than wrong about sharply falling stock prices, the peaks and declines of oil and gold and the depressing economic downturn.

Back in the mainstream, Gorman frankly admits he was wrong to predict last year that 2008 would see North American stock markets rise for the sixth year in row. Even after this week's gains, markets have fallen by a third or more.

It is clearer now that economic hardship lies ahead. Yet he argues stock prices are tantalizingly inexpensive. Even if profits fall by a quarter more than stock analysts expect, current stock prices would be only about 12 times those lower earnings.

"That is not terribly expensive," he argues.

Meanwhile, Gorman points out, U.S. institutions and retail investors are sitting on about $3.7 trillion in money market funds, equal to about a quarter of the value of U.S. equities. Some of that cash could well move into stocks. Already company insiders are buying twice the volume of shares they are selling, he says.

Those and other positive signs considered, Gorm an says that he expects markets to be about 14 per cent higher by the end of next year. With dividends, total investment returns would be somewhat higher.

"When you go through a bear market, it tends to be much shorter than a bull market," Gorman says.

"Of course pessimism can get pretty thick, and my view is that it was somewhat overdone. We do have rough economic times ahead, but the market will always look ahead."

Now, if pessimism is all you are feeling, then Prechter is your man. He has predicted stocks will not hit bottom until share prices are only six times earnings per share, and dividend yields are in the range of 17 per cent.

A lot of people would have to turn their backs on stocks before that happened. Poll your friends to see whom they would rather believe.

Friday was the 6th Day From Bottom QEC ,TLM Running Up Fast

Will this help Oilexco?

U.K. takes majority control of Royal Bank of Scotland

EMILY FLYNN VENCAT

Associated Press

November 28, 2008 at 5:35 AM EST

LONDON — Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC said Friday the British government will take majority control of the bank — buying close to a 60 per cent stake — after its shareholders shunned a stock offering.

RBS, which has indicated it could post its first ever annual loss this year, said investors bought just 0.2 per cent of shares offered to them in a 20 billion pound ($31-billion U.S.) government plan to recapitalize the bank. The offer, issued last month, expired on Friday.

Under the terms of the plan, the government agreed to buy any shares not purchased by investors.

As a result, the government is expected to buy nearly all 20 billion pounds worth of shares, with 15 billion pounds going for ordinary shares and 5 billion pounds for preference shares.

This will leave the British Treasury owning 57.9 per cent of the bank, and sitting on an immediate paper loss on its investment of around 5 billion pounds.

The British Treasury was not immediately available for comment.

The deal forms the largest part of the government's wider plan to recapitalize Britain's banks.

Last month, RBS, Lloyds TSB Group PLC and HBOS PLC agreed to sell a combined 37 billion pounds worth of stock to shore up their balance sheets. In all three cases, the government guaranteed to buy any shares not purchased by investors.

Shares in RBS were roughly flat at 55 pence in early trading on the London Stock Exchange, as the market had been widely expecting that the government would be taking a majority stake in the bank.

Last week, shareholders approved the capital raising plan though it was clear that ordinary investors would be unlikely to buy the new shares because they were selling for 65.5 pence — around 28 per cent more than the existing share price.

RBS shares were above 380 pence last December, and above 200 pence as recently as Sept. 26.

The bank is expected to buy the preference shares back from the government as soon as possible because it will be forbidden from paying any dividends to ordinary shareholders while the preference shares are outstanding.

The drastic fundraising plan comes on top of a 12 billion pounds rights issue by RBS earlier this year — at the time the biggest ever rights issue in Europe.

RBS has been one of the hardest hit European banks in the financial crisis because of its large exposure to sub-prime loans and its expensive purchase of ABN Amro bank just before the credit crunch.

Stocks to rebound in 2009: TD Waterhouse

TheStar.com - Business - Stocks to rebound in 2009: TD Waterhouse

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Ontario is on the brink of recession, the Conference Board of Canada says.
November 27, 2008

THE CANADIAN PRESS

TORONTO – Capital-market volatility will continue "in the very near term" but will ease during 2009 and key stock indexes will rise, led by large-company shares, TD Waterhouse predicts.

The forecast for 2009 from the TD Bank's brokerage follows its prediction a year ago that recession and a bear market were unlikely in 2008.

"Looking ahead to 2009, the key questions on the minds of investors are when the heavy volatility will end, what the `floor level' of the current bear market will be, and when will stocks begin to recover," Bob Gorman, chief portfolio strategist at TD Waterhouse, stated Thursday in releasing the new outlook.

The Toronto stock market – down by half from its peak in June – is forecast to advance, tagging along as the American market, ``after experiencing continuing pressure in the near term due to tax-loss selling and hedge-fund and mutual-fund redemptions, will rise in 2009."

TD Waterhouse notes that stock valuations are depressed, bond yields are low, and loosening credit and fiscal and monetary policy will stimulate the economy, while large amounts of cash are on the sidelines and corporate insiders are buying.

``Given their greater financial stability and low valuations, we feel that large caps

offer the best prospective risk-reward relationship," said Gorman.

Returns in the Canadian bond market are projected to be in the same range of 4.0 to 4.5 per cent as in 2008, with high-grade corporate bonds outperforming government issues amid "some reversal of the flight to quality." TD Waterhouse also expects a rally in high-yield debt, as so-called junk bonds "are highly correlated with equities."

European and Japanese stock markets are forecast to produce positive returns, but for emerging markets "caution is recommended for the present and avoidance of direct exposure." TD Waterhouse comments that "there may be some difficulties in Chinese real estate, which could spill over into their banking system."

As for the positive year-ago projection gone awry, Gorman observed: "This prediction was overturned by the unprecedented decline in global financial markets and commodity prices."

QEC:potentially one of the largest unconventional gas plays in Canada

Caille touts Quebec gas reserves
Lyne Moore, Montreal Gazette

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Once "geological and technical uncertainties" pertaining to unconventional gas reserves in the St. Lawrence lowlands are settled and the resource is proven, Quebec natural gas could generate more jobs and economic benefits than Hydro-Quebec, Andre Caille, the former CEO of the provincial utility told an equally-enthusiastic gathering at Quebec Exploration 2008.

During the annual Quebec Petroleum Society dinner, Caille said that the projected figures related to the gas play "are so big" that he wanted to review them because he was more accustomed to Hydro-Quebec's.

He later talked about 1,000 direct jobs and economic spinoffs worth $10-billion in 2007 dollars.
The multi-billion dollar question is not whether there is gas in the lowlands' shale but whether it can be retrieved economically; the first of the answers to those questions - all agree - are months away.

But investment dollars continue to flow into the project that analysts have already described as potentially one of the largest unconventional gas plays in Canada.

Part of the interest resides in the fact that Quebec has the lowest gas royalty fees in Canada - 12 per cent - and Alberta's are about to jump to 50 per cent.

This week, a Calgary-based private equity firm paid $3.5 million to junior companies to earn a 60 per cent interest in their exploration permits.

It may rival the largest U.S. onshore gas field - the Texas Barnett shale. Major producers, Talisman and Forest Oil - which says its assets may hold as much as four trillion cubic feet of gas reserves.

An array of test wells have been put down recently and critical results are expected within months.

Source

Questerre Energy Corporation: Excellent Early Results From Shale Programs in Third Quarter
00:15 EST Thursday, November 13, 2008

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Nov. 13, 2008) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION ON U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Questerre Energy Corporation ("Questerre" or the "Company") (TSX:QEC) (OSLO:QEC) reported today on its financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2008.
"The appraisal of our major shale gas discovery in Quebec began in the third quarter with excellent early results," commented Michael Binnion, President and Chief Executive Officer.

"Pilot programs by our partners are on track to assess the commerciality of the Utica and Lorraine shales. We were also encouraged by a 10 mmcf/d test of the Liard shales at the Beaver River Field in British Columbia."

"The success of the drilling program in Antler largely contributed to our improved financial results during the quarter," Mr. Binnion added.

"Despite lower realized prices, cash flow from operations was $5.41 million up from $5.14 million in the preceding quarter. We maintained a strong balance sheet with no debt and positive working capital of over $67 million at the end of the quarter."

"Our financial strength and conventional assets allows us to weather these challenging markets and thoroughly evaluate what could yet prove to be the most valuable natural gas find in Canada."

Highlights

- Successful Utica shale production test in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec
- Expanded pilot programs commenced in the Lowlands with 4 wells spud during the quarter
- Liard shale well tests at over 10 mmcf/d at Beaver River Field, British Columbia
- Antler, Saskatchewan development program underway with drilling of 2 wells and stimulation of 5 wells in the third quarter

- Quarterly cash flow from operations increased over 124% to $5.41 million from $2.41 million in the third quarter of 2007

- Increased oil production contributed to improved operating netbacks of $48.51 per boe from $17.39 per boe in the prior year

Cash flow from operations for the third quarter of 2008 grew to $5.41 million from $2.41 million in 2007 and $5.14 million in the second quarter. The increase reflects the higher oil weighting in the Company's production profile and stronger commodity prices and netbacks during the quarter.

The Company maintained its financial position with a working capital surplus of $67.83 million at September 30, 2008 as compared to $10.00 million at December 31, 2007.

Petroleum and natural gas revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2008 was $8.89 million. This represents a 105% increase over revenue of $4.34 million in the same period in 2007 and relatively unchanged over revenue of $9.04 million in the second quarter of this year.

With average daily production of 1,292 boe/d (2007: 1,206 boe/d) in the quarter, higher commodity prices were primarily responsible for the higher revenue.

The Company reported net earnings of $0.29 million for the quarter as compared to a loss of $0.68 million in 2007.
Questerre is a Calgary-based independent resource company actively engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of high-impact exploration and development oil and gas projects in Canada.

This news release contains forward-looking information. Implicit in this information are assumptions regarding commodity pricing, production, royalties and expenses, that, although considered reasonable by the Company at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect. These forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance.

Actual results could differ materially as a result of changes in the Company's plans, commodity prices, equipment availability, general economic, market, regulatory and business conditions as well as production, development and operating performance and other risks associated with oil and gas operations.

There is no guarantee made by the Company that the actual results achieved will be the same as those forecasted herein.

Barrel of oil equivalent ("boe") amounts may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio has been calculated using a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil and is based on an energy equivalent conversion method application at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent an economic value equivalent at the wellhead.

Questerre Energy CorporationAnela DidoInvestor Relations

(403) 777-1185(403) 777-1578 (FAX)

Email: info@questerre.com

Website: http://www.questerre.com/

Blue Sky Play For 2009 CRO-x .05 to 1.38

- This company has connections to very well funded mining operations through decades of experience. I believe Mr. Tyler when he says they are speaking with 5 strategic partners for completion of there project through joint ventures. Joint venture speculation could drive our sp into a frenzy.

- The drill program which comprised our 253 million dollar property is open at depth and further drilling could significantly increase the resource. Some of our strongest results were on outer edges of the drill zone. De-watering of the 2500 meter mine shaft will allow them to get at these areas. The intersection I speak of is the 7% nickel over 5 meters that intersection comes from the end of the drill core. Further exploration could offer up amazing results. 0 summer 2008 drill results out, any significant finds in mine ready atikocan or kenora/dryden properties will lift stock.

- The company has contractual agreements with Opiwica explorations (OPW) on the TSX.V to mill there major gold and copper find with in close proximity of Canadian Arrows Planned site. Mining could begin on both projects in early 2010. This represents earnings and is a good partnership for a company seeking to be the next significant Nickel Copper producer in Canada.

- Canadian Arrow has the ability to produce nickel in its mine at 3.47 per pound nickel. That kind of number is unheard of in comparison to other mines. With production scheduled for early 2010 (around the same time our economy should be significantly rebounding) what if nickel prices return back to 15 dollars per pound? This site will look like a gem to any investor! (plus the property would be worth about 400mil at 15 dollars per pound nickel.

This is just a few of the key points that I believe make this company look attractive. If my predictions are correct we will see a significant rebound to normal multiples over the course of the next couple of months and with any significant news pertaining to my points and our sp and volume will be sent soaring. JV with cash on the books and abilitiy to help put project into production will send our sp back to .50 if not higher! I am Bull on Canadian Arrow mines.

Source

Review This .pdf 12 page report:

http://www.chfir.com/CRO_Valuation/CRO_ValuationReport.pdf

Insiders Buying Bankers pet. BNK

This is a heavy oil play that needs 100.00 oil to make money

To see an interview on Bankers Pet. and sherriff click the link

Bill Harris on Sherritt International and Bankers Petroleum vs. Pearl Exploration About Bill HarrisBill Harris, CFA, is a principal and portfolio manager for the equity and fixed income portfolios at Avenue Investment Management. He has over 14 years of experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining Avenue Investment Management, he worked at Sentry Select Capital as portfolio manager for the resource group of funds.

His responsibilities included managing mutual funds, limited partnerships and exchange traded funds that specialized in oil and gas, mining and alternative energy investments. Over the previous ten year period he worked at TD Asset Management; from 1999-2002 as the senior energy and mining analyst for the Precious Metals, Resources and Energy funds; and from 1992-1999 as the Canadian equity trader for the active equity group.

Mr. Harris received a BA in economics from Dalhousie University in 1990.He became a Chartered Financial Analyst in 1998 and is a member of the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts.

The Oil Story According To Pescod

After what we saw today in the oil markets, we just won-
der if everything going on in the stock markets and com-
modity markets of late just isn’t one incredibly bad acid trip
gone wrong.

There are a lot of things that don’t always
seem to make sense. For instance today, we get the weekly
inventory report out of the United States which shows an
absolutely enormous increase of 7.2 million barrels of oil to
320 million barrels, according to the Energy Department.

That made it the ninth straight increase and while the inven-
tory was expected to increase, it was only by one million,
not seven.

On that kind of news, you would have usually expected
the price of crude oil to get swacked badly, but instead it’s
up. There was other news out there though that had people
for the first time in ages, a little bit hopeful. Out of China
comes the news (and in China, fuel demand has dropped
significantly) that China has lowered their interest rates for
the forth time in ten weeks, but this time they’ve done it in a
huge way...dropping their lending rate 108 basis points to
5.58%.

Yes, that’s dramatic and it doesn’t mean people will
actually go out and borrow money and buy things, but it’s
certainly an aggressive move.

If you are looking for good news though, it was another
report showing that energy demand is actually coming back
as last week they noted an increase of 510,000 barrels a day
being used by consumers. Maybe the lower prices will get
the consumer back to the pump.

We spent much of the last two days asking CEO’s of
companies, analysts, former analysts, and oil watchers one
question…“Where do they think the price of oil will be over
the next quarter, by July 1st of next year and by Christmas
of next year?” Because with so many oil and gas stocks so
beaten up, if there is a future…

One has to remember that of the dozen or so people we
talked to, many are in the oil business and would probably
hope to think their business would still be around, so they
are optimistic.

None of them had a crystal ball that pre-
dicted this credit crisis and many of them are in situations
where they admit they haven’t a clue what to predict and
some of them are in positions where they may have to
hedge their production and the like and imagine trying to
predict that at a time like this.

One thing many talked about, was the new President
Obama and while many of the oil guys have concerns about
what his alternative energy strategies might be, his tax poli-
cies and the like, they are huge admirers of the team he’s
put together to get the economy going again and big believ-
ers that if there was a team that could accomplish it, this is
the group


As far as predicting what next in the short run, there
were guesses anywhere from $45 and $60 with the argu-
ment being made that if OPEC this weekend does cut
production a little further, maybe we have seen the bot-
tom for a while.

As far as looking forward though, there was an amaz-
ing consistency to the group suggesting that by July 1st
they would expect to see $60 oil which isn’t that much
higher than today’s prices, but for the economics for
most oil companies, it would be significantly better.

As for Christmas next year, the group ranged between
$70 and $80 with a large chunk of the group settling on
the higher number and the reason for everyone to be
optimistic was “supply destruction.” Supply destruction
is getting a lot of talk these days because with the huge
drop in oil prices, oil companies around the world from
GazProm to PEMEX to particularly the North Sea, are
having projects delayed due to the credit crisis and
budgets slashed for exploration and if you don’t go look,
you don’t find.

While decline rates in the Mideast may only be 2% or
3% a year which helps make OPEC such as significant
force, many areas of the world such as the North Sea
have decline rates of as much as 20%.

With Mexico dropping 10% over the last year and Russian Oil ex-
pected to be peaking, the suggestion by many is that if
Obama’s team is able to encourage the economy and talk
consumers into believing there is a future and that they
will go out and spend on a bed, car or whatever to revive
the economy, it wouldn’t take much of an uptick in the
economy (provided of course it’s around the world) to
suck up what oil production did exist, even if OPEC did
start to turn on taps again a year down the road.

That was our terribly unscientific look down the road,
but needless to say there are a lot of different view points
out there. Tristone Capital came out with a 33-page re-
port today taking an in-depth look at what they see for oil
over the next year and are big believers that the reces-
sion is going to be deep and harmful and will cut Ameri-
can demands more than expected and hence they come
up with a really scary scenario...that oil will average $45 a
barrel in the first half of next year and $55 in the second.
There are a million different ideas out there, one of
which might be correct!

Talisman News :Arakis Energy loses finder's fee suit

Therefore, as a simple shareholder, it was not obliged to pay Arakis's debts. (The decision was undoubtedly a relief for Talisman, which had already suffered much grief over its Sudan project.) This means that Ms. Shabazz has a $1-million judgment against Arakis Energy, which delisted from the Vancouver Stock Exchange in 1995, and does not appear to have any assets.

Arakis Energy loses finder's fee suit

2008-11-26 12:00 ET - Street Wire

See Street Wire (C-AKS) Arakis Energy Corp

by Mike Caswell

Imam Daud Malik, a Cleveland resident who claimed he was the finder for State Petroleum Corp.'s Sudan oil concession, has won a $1-million posthumous judgment against the company. A judge has found that he helped broker a deal for the property in 1992.

Mr. Malik sued State Petroleum and its better-known successor, Arakis Energy Corp., on Oct. 11, 2001, in the Supreme Court of British Columbia. He claimed that he helped State acquire oil concessions in Sudan that had been abandoned by Chevron Corp. because of civil unrest in the country.

Mr. Malik said he had an oral finder's fee agreement with State's president, Lutfur Khan. It specified that he would receive 10 per cent of the value of any assets he helped the company acquire. The company did not pay the fee, and Mr. Malik filed the suit.

On Nov. 21, 2008, B.C. Supreme Court Justice Grant Burnyeat issued a ruling in Mr. Malik's favour. He found that as a result of introductions that Mr. Malik made, State acquired Chevron's former concessions on Aug. 29, 1993.

The judge noted that State was later acquired by Arakis Energy for $18-million in stock, and Arakis was itself acquired by Talisman Energy Inc. for $278-million in stock, primarily for the Sudan concession.

The decision is a victory for Mr. Malik's widow, Hasina Shabazz. She continued the case after Mr. Malik died in the fall of 2006.

Justice Burnyeat's decision

Justice Burnyeat's 32-page decision comes over a year after the case went to trial. It was heard over 15 days in August and September, 2007.

The decision explains that Mr. Malik was not a businessman, rather he was a community activist from Cleveland who found himself with the contacts to arrange the deal for State Petroleum. Before that, he organized counselling and drug abstinence programs. He had converted to Islam in 1968 and was the leader of a mosque by 1991.

He first learned of the oil concessions in April, 1991, when he was attending an Islamic conference in Sudan. He heard that Chevron had invested over $1-billion (U.S.) in the concessions before abandoning them in 1984.

Upon his return to North America, Mr. Malik set about finding businesses interested in investing in Sudan. He prepared brochures that stipulated he would seek a 10-per-cent finder's fee on any opportunities that he generated for North American businesses.

He met State's president, Mr. Khan, in May, 1991, through an acquaintance, and the men discussed placing the concessions into State Petroleum. Later that year, the company paid for Mr. Malik to go to Sudan along with two representatives of State.

Once there, he secured a meeting for the company with Abdul Wahab, the Minister of Energy. As a result of the meeting, State eventually received access to technical data on the concessions.

Justice Burnyeat found that Mr. Malik later helped negotiate State's acquisition of the claims, when he was living in Khartoum for a month to set up an exchange school for American students.

The decision went in Mr. Malik's favour even though his agreement with Mr. Khan was an oral one. The judge found that in December, 1992, Mr. Malik had asked for a written finder's fee agreement. He travelled to Vancouver at the invitation of Mr. Khan, and met him for dinner on Dec. 26. During that dinner, Mr. Malik asked for a finder's fee agreement, but relented when Mr. Khan said he could rely on his word as a Muslim.

State eventually acquired the concessions, and held a dinner on May 16, 1994, at the Khartoum Hilton to celebrate the opening of field operations at the concessions. Mr. Khan and Mr. Malik both attended.

Six weeks later, Mr. Malik received a $25,000 cheque from State's lawyer, and a letter referring to it as "the first instalment and payment of fees to you by the shareholders of State." He received another cheque on Oct. 13, 1994, as "a further advance on the finder's fee due to you by the shareholders of State Petroleum Corporation." Both letters were entered as evidence at trial.

The problems ensued after the company sent no further payments. On July 23, 1995, Mr. Malik sent a letter to Mr. Khan, demanding payment. It read: "Lutfur, your breach of our Islamic agreement is regrettable. As of this date you have failed to meet the deadline for the three commitments you made. I do, however, expect you to honor two of them ... otherwise, it would appear that you did not intend to respect our Islamic agreement, and, unfortunately, that leaves me with only a couple of options."

Mr. Malik received an additional $10,000 payment on Oct. 16, 1995, accompanied by another letter, stating the money was a further advance on the finder's fee.

Justice Burnyeat ruled that the letters, combined with the other evidence, showed that Mr. Malik was entitled to a finder's fee. He set the fee at $900,000, noting that State was acquired by Arakis for stock worth $18-million.

"But for the introduction by Mr. Malik, there is no doubt that State would not have entered the picture regarding the possibility of acquiring the Concessions," the judgment reads.

Justice Burnyeat also found that Mr. Malik provided consulting services for the company for 12 months outside of his work as a finder. This included a trip to Sudan on very short notice and participating in negotiations on the company's behalf. The judge valued his services at $12,500 per month, based on similar services provided by another consultant to State, for a total of $102,500.

The action had originally named Mr. Khan as a defendant, but one month before trial he agreed to pay $55,000 to settle the case. He also agreed to testify for the plaintiffs.

Who will pay?

While the decision is a victory for Ms. Shabazz, it is less than clear who will pay the judgment. The complaint had originally named Talisman Energy as a defendant, because it had acquired Arakis.

The problem is, on May 30, 2007, Justice Burnyeat ruled that Talisman was not responsible for the finder's fee, because it had simply acquired Arakis's shares. It had never amalgamated with Arakis or done anything to make itself the legal successor to Arakis. Therefore, as a simple shareholder, it was not obliged to pay Arakis's debts. (The decision was undoubtedly a relief for Talisman, which had already suffered much grief over its Sudan project.)

This means that Ms. Shabazz has a $1-million judgment against Arakis Energy, which delisted from the Vancouver Stock Exchange in 1995, and does not appear to have any assets.

Lawyers for neither side would explain which company will pay the judgment. Bruce McLeod, who represented Ms. Shabazz, said that was a question for Arakis's lawyers to answer. Andrew Nathanson, one of the lawyers who represented Arakis Energy, said his client has given him no instructions to talk to the media.

TLM and QEC + Hou Houses

Sign of the Times-

Death of a car dealership

Tony Van Alphen
Toronto Star
Nov 24, 2008

The Chrysler store had that strong, proud look as it dominated the southeast corner of Beechgrove Dr. and Kingston Rd. in Scarborough for more than half a century.

The lights, flags, flashy posters and showroom gave it a prominent community presence. It was a "five star" store, too, signifying the best the automaker could offer customers in service and satisfaction.

Chrysler proficiency awards and sponsorships of local hockey and baseball teams dotted the walls inside. The Scarborough Chamber of Commerce thought so much of the dealership's president that it selected him Business Person of the Year in 2003.

But Davidson Chrysler Dodge Inc. has shut its doors. It declared bankruptcy earlier this month with a deficit of more than $1.2 million. Only a few shiny Chrysler Caravans, Sebrings and Dodge Calibers remain on the 2.5-acre lot, along with the dealership's last "hottest hot wheels" promotion banner in the window.

Workers pulled down the red Davidson sign with the distinctive Chrysler Pentastar last week.

The economic storm blowing through the North American auto industry had reached the east end of Scarborough.

The storm, gathering force over the last two years, features product oversupply, lower demand and vicious competition. The additional element of tighter credit knocked the economy to its knees and threatens to put it in a deep freeze.

It has already devastated auto communities that make cars and parts, primarily in southern Ontario. But now, in cities and towns across the country, it's spreading to dealers, industry analysts say.

Dennis DesRosiers, who's studied dealership issues extensively, said although industry sales are still up in Canada this year, profit margins on new auto business have been dropping over the past decade, and are now at razor-thin levels because of fierce competition. That is forcing owners to increase revenues in other parts of the business, such as the repair shop, he said.

"As margins are squeezed, it is smaller dealers who will struggle to satisfy the demands of market pressures, imaging, technological change and the bigger investments in stores that come with it," he said. "It's tough, particularly for smaller stores in larger communities to survive because of that."

Some workers, plants, businesses and dealers will bounce back. But there won't be any recovery at Davidson Chrysler.

"It was the toughest decision I've ever made in my life," says owner and president Roger Davidson, 60, about filing for bankruptcy. "It was just an absolute heartbreak. I had 57 employees and many of them had been here for years."

Davidson also personally pumped almost $1 million into the store. He's a secured creditor, but doesn't expect to recover any of it.

The store's demise raises this question: If Davidson Chrysler – a top-notch, second-generation family store under veteran management – couldn't make it, how many other dealers are on the edge, facing failure in a deteriorating economic climate?

The Davidson bankruptcy is also instructional about some of the cold, hard business decisions that reeling auto giants are grappling with these days. A retailer's loyalty year after year in good and bad times counts for something, but not much when a company is fighting for its own survival.

Furthermore, the bankruptcy is indicative of a broader trend, where single-family dealerships are declining while businesses with deeper pockets control a number of dealerships. That allows them to lower overhead costs, exert more clout in the marketplace and cushion the impact of downturns better.

Chrysler Canada did not want to discuss the circumstances surrounding Davidson's bankruptcy, but chief executive officer Reid Bigland said 90 per cent of the company's dealers are currently profitable. That profitability has also improved this year, he said.

Bigland noted Chrysler can't be a strong company without profitable dealers making the necessary investments to continue generating business.

Bankruptcy trustee John Morgan, who is handling the Davidson case, said the dealer didn't make any major business mistakes that would sink his store.

Morgan said Davidson ran into circumstances in the industry and with Chrysler that he could not control. Davidson could see nothing but losses and misery on the road ahead, he said.

"Roger made an astute business decision, albeit a very difficult one, in walking away from something he had been associated with all his life," Morgan said.

Other auto dealers are in trouble, he added, and must take drastic steps, otherwise they will run into "serious repercussions."

Morgan, Bigland, Davidson and other dealers said that to survive the storm, store owners need to run extremely lean operations, keeping a close eye on staff levels and inventories. Dealers must also focus on generating revenues from sources such as parts, repair services and used cars, they added.

The Davidson store's roots originated in 1952, when Roger's father Jim opened a used-car dealership at the Kingston Rd. site. Four years later, he turned it into a Chrysler franchise that would sell thousands of vehicles and eventually become a business fixture in Scarborough.

Roger started washing cars there as a young boy. He eventually worked everywhere in the store, from parts department to sales counter. But he aspired to become a university professor – until one of them told him he was a born salesman.

Davidson heeded the words and opened what became a successful auto leasing business on the same site. He bought the dealership from his retiring father in 1978.

Davidson became one of Chrysler's top dealers in Canada, a member of The President's Club and an influential member of its national council for several years. He embraced new technology and processes to boost business.

The store was the first Chrysler dealership in Toronto to receive certification from the International Standards Organization (ISO) for implementation of top business processes and practices. It buzzed with action, peaking in the mid-1990s with annual sales of some 1,500 new cars and trucks.

But the store's fortunes started to wane four years ago.

While Chrysler sales increased in Canada, some local dealers said the gains were illusionary and didn't benefit them at all. That was because Chrysler factory representatives pressed for more deliveries than dealerships needed, in efforts to keep assembly plants humming.

Those plants produced a lot of gas-guzzling cars, trucks, and sport utility vehicles that were losing favour in the marketplace because of rising fuel prices.

Davidson said the frantic sales push reached the point where Chrysler was building vehicles dealers had not actually ordered. Lots overflowed, and dealers took losses on some cars to move the metal.

"It was unbelievable," he said. "We rented a farmer's field last winter where we put 60 cars. But horses ran between the cars and smashed the mirrors. Getting them out of the snow was quite another story."

Davidson played ball, hoping that when hot models were in short supply, he'd get them. It was a case of `I help you, you help me.'

"I wish I had watched that better," he said.

Bigland, who in happier times appeared with Davidson in a picture that was still hanging in the empty showroom this week, acknowledged high inventories for dealers was an "issue" a few years ago, but said the company has resolved it. And the factory doesn't build a vehicle without a dealer order, he stressed.

The incentive craze also cut into Davidson's business and profits. Some Chrysler dealers with more financial muscle continued incentives such as the "employee pricing" promotions after the manufacturer ended them.

Davidson saw just how far a retailer would go to win business when one rival gave $200 to Chrysler workers at the company's Brampton assembly plant so they would use their `employee pricing' certificates at the dealer's store. Chrysler discovered the tactic and stopped it, Davidson said.

Despite ballooning inventories and a falling customer base, Davidson said the number of Chrysler stores remained intact. He noted the three Toyota stores in his area outsold the eight Chrysler dealerships last year. Davidson's new sales tumbled to 500 last year, a steep drop from his all-time high of 1,500.

Bigland said the company is satisfied with the size of its dealer network, but agreed the numbers are out of balance in some mature urban markets.

The woes increased this summer for Davidson and other dealers when Chrysler exited leasing because of heavy financial obligations on gas-guzzling vehicles. Their values eroded when fuel prices spiked.

Leasing accounted for 30 per cent of Davidson's sales.

"I lost that overnight," he said.

And then the worldwide credit crisis hit and flattened the market. Tightening credit conditions significantly restricted borrowing for automakers, dealers and buyers, and was one reason Chrysler pulled out of leasing.

Bigland agreed the lack of available credit is hurting dealers who need funding to finance their inventories, and consumers who can't buy new autos without it.

"It is extremely acute in the marketplace right now," he said.

Despite all the turmoil and grim forecasts, Davidson would have persevered, he revealed in an interview.

But Chrysler killed any chance of that two years ago, he said, in an effort to address one of its many problems: Too many stores.

Chrysler exercised an option in its franchise agreement with Davidson that allowed him to keep operating under the company banner, but said he could not sell or transfer ownership to anyone except another franchisee.

That effectively eliminated any chance of a succession at Davidson Chrysler. Passing the store to salesman son Ryan and a third generation was no longer possible.

"It put me in a straight jacket," Davidson said. "But I also know others (dealers) got the same letter."

Davidson Chrysler had become collateral damage in the automaker's fight for survival.

In hindsight, Davidson said that as his focus moved away from the store's long-term future, he expanded a family used-car business outside of the city too quickly. Working capital for Davidson Chrysler dwindled.

"The cost of operations became too excessive," he said. "This store was geared to big volume and that wasn't happening any more."

In September, when the store's fate was inevitable, Davidson sought financial assistance from Chrysler so he could make severance payments to employees who would lose jobs. Chrysler refused.

"I could understand their situation," he said. "They don't have any money either."

Davidson closed the store days later. Bankruptcy filings show the dealership had liabilities of $3.46 million and assets of $2.21 million, for a shortfall of $1.25 million.

The biggest secured creditors are Chrysler Canada, with a claim of $2.5 million, and Davidson himself, with a claim of $900,000. More than 80 unsecured creditors will likely receive nothing.

This week, instead of selling cars, Davidson juggled calls on his BlackBerry and office phone while dealing with myriad bankruptcy details and creditor issues.

Davidson said he'll soon need to find another job, likely somewhere else in the auto industry.

"I'm not in a position where I can retire," said Davidson, an avid hunter, golfer and father of three. "I'm not a rich guy."

He expects to eventually sell the valuable real estate and buildings. Chrysler will get some of the proceeds but he'll also make money.

"I should be okay then," he said. "But all this has been pretty hard."

Houses TLM,QEC,HOU

The current market decline has been more rapid than the typical bear, but it's nothing like the rate of decline that lead to the Great Depression.

The Dow now hovers just above the 8,000 level. With a long-term view in mind, an obvious question is whether the decline to date has taken us below the mean value of the index. If we plot a linear regression through the Dow since 1950, it appears that we've fallen sharply below the mean.

But time frame is everything.

If we chart the Dow since 1928, the current level appears to be a regression just slightly below the mean.

However, if we chart the Dow since 1900, the picture is less optimistic. Regression to the mean would require an additional decline to the vicinity of 5,500 to 6,000.

Note: Our Dow overview now includes a chart of 1924-1940 with a focus on the Crash of 1929. The current market decline has been more rapid than the typical bear, but it's nothing like the rate of decline that lead to the Great Depression.

Buy Energy Companies

Buy Energy Companies

DavidCockfield's boss Bill Tynkaluk is featured in this Globe article today.Bill has been in the business for 52 years and says this is the worstbear market he has seen but he believes oil prices should be reboundingwithin a few weeks. He advices people to buy oil stocks but admits if adepression is coming he will be proven wrong. He is a conservativevalue investor.

"Special to The Globe and Mail

The source: Bill Tynkaluk, president, Leon Frazer & Associates Inc.

The idea: Buy shares of major Canadian oil and gas producers.

Withoil slipping below $50 (U.S.) a barrel, this would hardly seem the timeto buy energy stocks. Indeed, oil companies are scaling backexploration and cutting production in response to the price collapse,apparently girding for a long slowdown. Even diehard energy stocksupporters are being rattled by talk of $20 oil.

But oil islikely to rebound within a few weeks, Mr. Tynkaluk says. The drop, from$147 a barrel in July, has been sharp and swift, and the bottom iscloser than many market-watchers expect, he said in an interview.

Oncethe economy recovers, tight supply will put upward pressure on prices,Mr. Tynkaluk notes. While the recovery may still appear way off in thefuture, the stock market tends to lead the underlying economy byseveral months.

And while there is much talk aboutalternative energy sources, they will take years to develop, he says.In the meantime, "people still haven't got rid of their SUVs."

Mr.Tynkaluk recommends buying shares of quality companies with strongbalance sheets and good cash flow, such as Talisman Energy Inc., NexenInc., EnCana Corp., Imperial Oil Ltd., Suncor Energy Inc. and CanadianNatural Resources Ltd.

At Friday's close, Talisman at $9.19(Canadian), is down from a 52-week high of $25.40; Nexen, $16.91, downfrom $43.45; EnCana, $48.66, down from $97.81; Imperial Oil, $35.94,down from $62.54; Suncor, $20.62, down from $73.10; and CanadianNatural, $41.61, down from $111.30.

"I think you will make a fair amount of money because when energy turns, it will turn with a vengeance," he says.

Thepayoff: Potentially large capital gains in a short period, followed bysolid longer-term gains as the world economy recovers and expandsagain.

The big risk: The economy doesn't recover and insteadfalls into a long and deep slump, something Mr. Tynkaluk thinksunlikely. "If we go into a depression, there's no question I'm going tobe wrong," he says.

The way he sees it, erstwhile growthleaders such as China, India and Brazil have plenty of money to investin their economies to keep them afloat, so demand for energy willremain strong. "They will recover before we do," he says.

Why listen to Bill Tynkaluk?

Mr.Tynkaluk has been in the investment business for 52 years. During thattime, he has seen several bear markets, so he's not as alarmed as someless-seasoned market watchers. Of all the bear markets, "this is themost vicious one," he acknowledges, if only for its relentlessness.Leon Frazer has a reputation for conservative, value investing."

FP says Suncor, others could be hit with unwanted bids

FP says Suncor, others could be hit with unwanted bids 2008-11-21 09:22 ET - In the News See In the News (C-SU) Suncor Energy Inc The Financial Post reports in its Friday edition that oil companies are flush with cash, thanks to the recent period of high energy prices, but at the same time, reinvestment in their core business has lagged.

The Post's Jonathan Ratner, writing in Trading Desk, says this could put Calgary in the middle of a consolidation wave. The world's top five oil companies finished the third quarter with $62-billion in cash and annual cash flow of $232-billion, according to Canaccord Adams. As a result, it expects an increased focus on mergers and acquisitions in the coming year.

Canada and the oil sands could get a lot of attention. Market caps of large-cap energy companies in Canada have declined more than 50 per cent since July. "We believe that major oil companies look beyond the short-term environment, particularly for assets, such as oil sands that have a 40+ year reserve life," Canaccord said.

"There will most likely be several bull market cycles for energy over that time period." Canaccord thinks Suncor, EnCana, Canadian Natural Resources, Talisman and Nexen are all vulnerable to an unsolicited takeover offer. BP, Eni and Total would be interested in Nexen's North Sea assets.

Oil moves above $50 a barrel

TheStar.com - Business -
Oil moves above $50 a barrel
November 21, 2008
Alex Kennedy
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

SINGAPORE–Oil prices rose off a three-year low, creeping above $50 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors took a cue from a rebound in regional stock markets.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up 80 cents to $50.22 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore, after falling to $48.25 earlier in the session, the lowest level since May 18, 2005.

The December contract, which expired Thursday, fell overnight by $4.00 to settle at $49.62.

"Right now, oil is just following stock market sentiment," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.

Asian stock markets initially followed their U.S. counterparts down Friday, but then rallied. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index rose 2.7 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 2.3 per cent and South Korea's key index was up 5.8 per cent.

Traders are still worried that a global recession will undermine energy demand. Already, oil prices have tumbled by two-thirds from their peak of nearly $150 a barrel in mid-July.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.6 per cent Thursday to its lowest level since March 2003 after the Labor Department said new applications for jobless benefits exceeded analyst estimates and rose to the highest level of claims since July 1992.

The S&P 500 index fell 6.7 per cent Thursday to an 11-year low. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 52 per cent below its October 2007 record, making this the second-biggest bear market on record, exceeded only by the 83 per cent drop between 1930 and 1932.

"$50 was a psychological support level," Rigby said. "Since we haven't traded this low for so long, it's hard to find a new support level."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 per cent of global supply, may cut production before its next official meeting on Dec. 17, Rigby said. OPEC President Chakib Khelil has signaled the group may announce output reductions at the meeting, but some members, such as Iran, have called for earlier cuts.

OPEC lowered production quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.

"Their revenues are dropping so much, I think OPEC will have to call an extraordinary meeting and cut quotas to try to support the market," Rigby said. "Their last cut had zero impact on the market."

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.89 cent to $1.03 a gallon. Heating oil gained 1.91 cents to $1.69 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery slid 5.9 cents to $6.26 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, December Brent crude fell 68 cents to $47.40 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Second worst day ever for TSX

RTGAM


It was an absolute drubbing in Toronto Thursday, with the mining and financial sectors pushing the S&P/TSX to its second-worst percentage loss in its history.

The S&P/TSX closed down 9.02 per cent, or 765.80 points, to 7,724.76 as the price of oil slid as low as $49.50 (U.S.) a barrel. It's the first time the index has closed below 8,000 since December, 2003.

The market's worst day on record was Black Monday in October of 1987, when the benchmark index fell more than 11 per cent.

The energy subindex was pulled down 14.08 per cent, with heavyweights such as Canadian Natural Resources down 21 per cent, Suncor down 13.9 per cent and Encana off 12.3 per cent.

The financial sector also suffered a double-digit loss, down 12.82 per cent after Toronto-Dominion Bank pre-announced its fourth quarter, and said it would take a $350-million hit on credit trading. Its shares were 12.74 per cent lower. Manulife fell 16.5 per cent, while the Royal Bank was down 11.2 per cent.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the day down 5.56 per cent, or 444.99 points, to 7,552.29 as the worst unemployment numbers in 12 years and uncertainty about the future of the auto sector acted as drags. The broader S&P 500 was down 6.71 per cent, or 54.14 points, to 752.44.

Citigroup led the losers on the Dow, down almost 25 per cent despite the promise of increased investment by one of the bank's largest shareholders, Saudi prince Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. JP Morgan & Chase & Co was down 15 per cent, while Alcoa traded 13 per cent lower.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Oilexco Cancels Debenture Offering Stock Plummets

TSX 500-point drop

TSX 500-point drop midday

DAVID FRIEND
Thursday, November 20, 2008
TORONTO — The Toronto stock market revived from a 500-point tumble Thursday morning but was still showing deep triple-digit losses as mining stocks crumbled and the banking industry revealed more bad news.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 335.61 points to 8,154.95 at midmorning after going as low as 7,947, down 544 points. That was the first time the benchmark index had been below 8,000 since December 2003, and represented a drop of 47 per cent from the market's peak just five months ago at 15,073.

The Canadian dollar accelerated its slide, losing 2.17 cents to 77.66 cents US, after dropping 1.48 cents Wednesday. The currency traded as low as 77.31 cents.

Toronto financial stocks were down 7 per cent after TD Bank disclosed $350-million in quarterly credit trading losses. Its stock lost $3.49 to $46.44, and all the other big Canadian banks were also sharply lower. Royal Bank lost 8 per cent to $37.95 and CIBC fell 9 per cent to $44.

Metal stocks slid 10.3 per cent. Teck Cominco Ltd. was down 23 per cent to $4.00 after it suspended dividends, slashed capital spending plans by $730-million and sold assets to cut debt taken on for the $14-billion (U.S.) takeover of the Fording Canadian Coal Trust.

Kinross Gold Corp. rose 41 cents to $14.35 (Canadian) on word it is paying $250-million (U.S.) to buy the Lobo-Marte gold site in Chile from Teck Cominco and Anglo American PLC.

The TSX energy sector fell 5.3 per cent as crude oil dipped under the $50-a-barrel mark, reviving slightly in later trade to lose $2.94 at $50.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 145.76 points to 7,852. The Nasdaq composite was off 20.60 at 1,366 and the S&P 500 shed 19.88 to 787.

A jump in weekly U.S. unemployment claims to a 16-year high was the latest piece of depressing economic data. The Labour Department said applications for jobless benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 542,000 last week, from a downwardly revised 515,000 in the previous week.

Overseas, Japan's main stock index plummeted 6.9 per cent and other markets were also solidly in the red.

Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 average slid 570.18 points to 7,703.04 as data showed exports in October sank 7.7 per cent, the biggest decline since 2001. The rare trade deficit follows confirmation earlier this week that Japan is in recession. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell four per cent.

Losses deepened as the day went on in Europe, with the FTSE 100 index down 4.1 per cent in the afternoon in London.

The German DAX fell 4.5 per cent and the Paris CAC-40 lost 4.6 per cent after French automaker PSA Peugeot Citroen said it will cut 2,700 jobs from its 200,000-person workforce in response to skidding European car sales.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail