FORTUNA SILVER
(V-FVI)
MINERA ANDES
(T-MAI)
It kinds of looks like we’ve been in the gold market does-
n’t it folks? But as we’ve pointed out, there is still a huge
number of gold stocks out there with too many shares out-
standing with very little leverage left, so there is a long list
of those that haven’t moved. Frankly, there is a long list of
those that don’t have projects worth moving anyway, this is
typical of most times.
With gold hitting $1200, even some of those with way too
many shares out like Barrick Gold and Kinross have been
moving of late, but it is time to go visit two of the better gold
stock pickers out there with our favourite question: “If you
could only buy one gold stock today, what would it be?”
We have to start with Nicholas Campbell because at least
at the moment, he is the glowing star in the stable of ana-
lysts with Canaccord Financial. Campbell has come up with
some absolutely enormous wins such as Ventana Gold
(VEN), Colossus Minerals (CSI) and a couple of others.
While the gold stock index is up some of his picks have
been doubles, triples and better.
But it is always the old question...what have you done for
us lately? And more importantly, what are you going to do
for us next?
So while he is on a tour talking about some of his favour-
ite stories to institutions, when we caught up with him and
that question he comes up with a new name as frankly,
Keegan has had a huge run (although he expects it to go a
lot higher) and Ventana, of the stories of the day has met a
temporary bit of a road block. So for today, he comes up
with Fortuna Silver Mines. Unlike some of his other gold
picks which hope to be producers down the road and in
some cases way down the road, Fortuna Silver is actually a
silver producer and it holds interest in the Caylloma silver-
lead-zinc mine in Peru and the San Jose silver-gold project
in Mexico.
For their San Jose project Campbell suggests, “silver
production of 1.7 million ounces of silver in 2010, growing
to 5.5 million ounces of silver-equivalent by 2012.”
He points to organic growth profile, a solid balance sheet
and consistent cash flows and attractive valuations. Nicho-
las just started coverage of this story and gives it a $4.75
target. We hope it performs as well as some of his previous
picks.
Meanwhile, Wendell Zerb is in charge of putting out an
awful lot of the research Canaccord does, particularly the
“Junior Mining Weekly” which entails an awful lot of re-
search, so between putting out that publication, continuing
his own research plus with an eye on the markets, Zerb is
one busy guy.
HORIZONS ALPHAPRO FUND (T-HAG)
$9.16 +0.06
COXE COMMODITY STRATEGY (T-COX.UN) $8.06 +0.18
It’s not nice to say tough things about other commenta-
tors because let’s say if you are an analyst or writer look-
ing at a story that does deserve negative comments, if you
actually use them, you can be assured that source will
probably never talk to you again.
You write something negative about a company Presi-
dent or the guy running the financing and I suspect that
phone won’t be answered again by him, will it?
So it’s a tough role to play asking those hard ques-
tions. Or even more importantly, writing a negative arti-
cle...but hat’s off to Fabrice Taylor on his Monday article
for the Globe and Mail when he writes about the Gartman
Fund in an article headed, “Gartman fund needs less talk,
more action.”
You have probably seen Mr. Gartman making commen-
tary on BNN or several other news networks and it is
amazing to see the information and commentary that he
puts out on a daily basis—almost five pages of it every
day! Up until now though, it has been hard to know
whether he ever made any money for his subscribers or
not. Always interesting, but one wondered about that.
What Taylor did was look at the Gartman Fund and find
out by one quick look at the chart to the left that there has
been a lot of talk and no money made.
In the interesting article, Taylor writes, “Vox rarely de-
clares a bubble, but we make an exception today: The
bubble is in Dennis Gartman. When you start calling War-
ren Buffett an "idiot" while you lose money for your own
investors, you're way too big for your britches. Mr. Gart-
man is, of course, author of the eponymous newsletter on
all things investable. “What's troubling about Mr. Gart-
man as a money manager is that while he gives good
quotes and speaks with conviction, he doesn't invest with
quite the same resolve.” The author is very opinionated
and speaks with great conviction, which is a rare and at-
tractive quality. Most money managers are guarded, cir-
cumspect bores on the record. Mr. Gartman is fun to read
and listen to. That's probably why he gets so much media
attention and, in turn, is able to raise money.”
Taylor continues, “Whether you're just vaguely ac-
quainted with his work or an avid reader, you must have
asked yourself at one point if Mr. Gartman actually makes
any money for himself or for his readers by trading.
Until recently, there's never been a reliable way to gauge. Now there is, and it's not particularly impressive.”
Gartman’s fund the Horizons AlphaPro Gartman ETF is down at a time that the markets in general are up almost 30%
or better.
So much for the way Gartman does this buy this and hedge short against it idea which seems to make brokers money,
but maybe not their clients.
Meanwhile, there is another fund out there that also has a very high profile commentator behind it and that’s Don
Coxe’s Commodity Fund. It shows that it is also way, way down from where it was at its inception, although lately it has
been doing like almost everything else, somewhat better.