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Sunday, November 16, 2008

the magic "breakout" number for the S&P/TSX is 10,199.78.

The S&P 500's magic number is 1,007.51 and The Dow Jones number is 9,794.37.

Until that time, Vialoux and other technical investors will look to pick up "little bits and pieces" on weakness.


TORONTO -- Canadian stocks on Friday ended another rough week on a sour note as investors took profits from Thursday's 400-point rally and embraced tighter their fears that recession will cut oil demand and starve earnings in the oilsands.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 296.82 points, or 3.17 per cent, at 9,055.96. On the week, Canada's main exchange was down 540.25 points, or 5.5 per cent.

The TSX Venture lost 11.98 points Friday, or 1.47 per cent, to close at 801.68, while the Canadian dollar closed at 81.6 cents US, down 94 basis points.
For technical investors, the week proved important as North American stocks retested their October lows.

Chartered market technician Don Vialoux said investors can now look forward with more confidence to markets retesting their highs in the next little while.

"Historically, when you've gone through a capitulation stage, markets will go sideways for four to six weeks," he says. "Ultimately the market will break on the upside. And when it does break, that's the fun part of the market, and stocks go up very, very strongly for a good period of time."
Vialoux said the magic "breakout" number for the S&P/TSX is 10,199.78.

The S&P 500's magic number is 1,007.51 and The Dow Jones number is 9,794.37.
Until that time, Vialoux and other technical investors will look to pick up "little bits and pieces" on weakness.

Crude oil prices fell to $57.04 US a barrel, down $1.20. A record drop in U.S. retail sales in October refreshed concerns that a prolonged recession will curb demand for oil. Energy stocks went lower with EnCana Corp., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc., the three biggest companies in the S&P/TSX energy sub-index falling six, four and three per cent, respectively.

Gold stocks also fell on the day, despite a big climb in gold prices to $742.50 US an ounce, up $37.50. Goldcorp. Inc. was down six per cent, while Barrick Gold Corp. fell five per cent.
Research in Motion Ltd. fell close to a 52-week low, declining almost eight per cent as rival Nokia Oyj cut its estimate of industry-wide phone shipments.

U.S. retail numbers, which showed sales declining 2.8 per cent last month, also played havoc on U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 337.94 points, or 3.82 per cent, at 8,497.31. The Nasdaq was down 79.85 points, or five per cent, to 1,516.85, while the S&P 500 Index lost 38 points, or 4.2 per cent, to 873.29.

Consumer stocks were hit hard, led by Sears Holdings Inc., down 14 per cent, and Home Depot Inc., down seven per cent. Motorola also fell hard on Nokia's estimate cut, dropping 10 per cent.