Buy Energy Companies
DavidCockfield's boss Bill Tynkaluk is featured in this Globe article today.Bill has been in the business for 52 years and says this is the worstbear market he has seen but he believes oil prices should be reboundingwithin a few weeks. He advices people to buy oil stocks but admits if adepression is coming he will be proven wrong. He is a conservativevalue investor.
"Special to The Globe and Mail
The source: Bill Tynkaluk, president, Leon Frazer & Associates Inc.
The idea: Buy shares of major Canadian oil and gas producers.
Withoil slipping below $50 (U.S.) a barrel, this would hardly seem the timeto buy energy stocks. Indeed, oil companies are scaling backexploration and cutting production in response to the price collapse,apparently girding for a long slowdown. Even diehard energy stocksupporters are being rattled by talk of $20 oil.
But oil islikely to rebound within a few weeks, Mr. Tynkaluk says. The drop, from$147 a barrel in July, has been sharp and swift, and the bottom iscloser than many market-watchers expect, he said in an interview.
Oncethe economy recovers, tight supply will put upward pressure on prices,Mr. Tynkaluk notes. While the recovery may still appear way off in thefuture, the stock market tends to lead the underlying economy byseveral months.
And while there is much talk aboutalternative energy sources, they will take years to develop, he says.In the meantime, "people still haven't got rid of their SUVs."
Mr.Tynkaluk recommends buying shares of quality companies with strongbalance sheets and good cash flow, such as Talisman Energy Inc., NexenInc., EnCana Corp., Imperial Oil Ltd., Suncor Energy Inc. and CanadianNatural Resources Ltd.
At Friday's close, Talisman at $9.19(Canadian), is down from a 52-week high of $25.40; Nexen, $16.91, downfrom $43.45; EnCana, $48.66, down from $97.81; Imperial Oil, $35.94,down from $62.54; Suncor, $20.62, down from $73.10; and CanadianNatural, $41.61, down from $111.30.
"I think you will make a fair amount of money because when energy turns, it will turn with a vengeance," he says.
Thepayoff: Potentially large capital gains in a short period, followed bysolid longer-term gains as the world economy recovers and expandsagain.
The big risk: The economy doesn't recover and insteadfalls into a long and deep slump, something Mr. Tynkaluk thinksunlikely. "If we go into a depression, there's no question I'm going tobe wrong," he says.
The way he sees it, erstwhile growthleaders such as China, India and Brazil have plenty of money to investin their economies to keep them afloat, so demand for energy willremain strong. "They will recover before we do," he says.
Why listen to Bill Tynkaluk?
Mr.Tynkaluk has been in the investment business for 52 years. During thattime, he has seen several bear markets, so he's not as alarmed as someless-seasoned market watchers. Of all the bear markets, "this is themost vicious one," he acknowledges, if only for its relentlessness.Leon Frazer has a reputation for conservative, value investing."