Phantom Alert For Your GPS In Canada and USA

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Quants pick mining winners

Quants pick mining winners
Posted: March 31, 2009, by Peter Koven

Bring on the quants! Macquarie analysts Javed Jussa, Yin Luo and Rochester Cahan used quant factors to rank mining stocks based on a combination of their ability to perform well in a rebounding market, but still hold up if the market deteriorates again.

They studied all the Canadian metals and mining stocks over the past three weeks (when they had a major upswing) and over the past three years (when the market went from bull to bear). They figured out which quant factors had the most predictive power for the miners during both periods, and screened all the companies against the combined list.

The most important factors turned out to be upward analyst revisions, strong five-year earnings growth, improved liquidity, positive earnings surprises, and high return on assets.

The rankings turned up plenty of surprises, to say the least. The analysts found that the company most likely to perform well in a rebounding market, and still hold up if the market deteriorates, is Silvercorp Metals Inc., a silver miner working in China. Debt-laden giant Teck Cominco Ltd. also cracked the top three following its big rebound in March. Here is the entire top 10:

1. Silvercorp
2. Inmet Mining Corp.
3. Teck
4. Quadra Mining Ltd.
5. Corriente Resources Inc.
6. First Uranium Corp.
7. Taseko Mines Ltd.
8. First Quantum Minerals Ltd.
9. HudBay Minerals Inc.
10. Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.

Globe and Pescod say...

Windows get dressed

RTGAM

North American stocks on Tuesday recovered some of the ground they lost during Monday's selloff  - but failed to hold on to their highs for the day after a substantial dip in the final hour of trading.


The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 7608.92, up 86.90 points, or 1.2 per cent. The index fell about 116 points toward the close. The broader S&P 500 closed at 797.87, up 10.34 points, or 1.3 per cent, similarly surrendering more than half of its gains in the final hour of trading.


So, is the glass half full or half empty? Skeptics can certainly point out that there appeared to be more at work here than a shifting assessment of the global economy or corporate earnings. The latest glimpse of U.S. house prices, courtesy of the S&P Case-Shiller index, showed a drop of about 19 per cent year over year in January, slightly worse than expected. As well, the Conference Board's confidence index showed that consumers remain in the dumps.


Indeed, as some observers pointed out, the rebound in stocks may be due to nothing more than "window dressing" - that the final day of trading in the first quarter may have attracted mutual fund managers ditching their losing stocks and piling into recent winners to impress clients with their know-how.


If so, then a lot of mutual fund investors will discover that they are now the proud owners of U.S. financial stocks, many of which soared on Tuesday. Bank of America Corp. rose 13.1 per cent, Citigroup Inc. rose 9.5 per cent and JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose 7 per cent. In other moves, Alcoa Inc. rose 9.7 per cent and Microsoft Corp. rose 5.1 per cent.


Still, despite a volatile rebound since early March, results for the first quarter were dismal. The Dow fell 13.3 per cent and the S&P 500 fell 11.7 per cent. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index fared better, though, falling just 3.1 per cent.


In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index closed at 8720.39, up 124.17 points, or 1.4 per cent - and ended the quarter down about 3 per cent, making one of the world's best-performing major indexes.


For Tuesday's rebound, financials were the biggest movers - hey, could Prime Minister Stephen Harper's upbeat assessment of Canada's financial system be paying off? Toronto-Dominion Bank rose 3.5 per cent, Bank of Montreal rose 4.6 per cent and Sun Life Financial Inc. rose 7.8 per cent.


Energy stocks were also generally higher after the price of crude oil rebounded toward $50 (U.S.) a barrel, up $1.25. Canadian Oil Sands Trust rose 4.8 per cent and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose 0.3 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Talisman Energy Announces First Oil From the Northern Fields Development

13:17 EDT Tuesday, March 31, 2009

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 31, 2009) - Talisman Malaysia Limited ("Talisman Malaysia"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Talisman Energy Inc. (TSX:TLM) (NYSE:TLM), has commenced oil production from the Northern Fields development on schedule. The development is located in the PM-3 commercial arrangement area ("CAA") offshore Malaysia and Vietnam. Production is expected to reach 40,000-50,000 boe/d (gross sales) by early 2010 with the commissioning of dry gas facilities mid-year. Talisman expects to drill a total of 16 development wells in the Northern Fields in 2009, with an additional 13 expected in 2010.

"This marks the achievement of another strategic milestone," said John A. Manzoni, President & CEO. "Southeast Asia continues to be a key area of opportunity and growth for Talisman. We have doubled our production in Asia over the past five years and are positioned to grow at 10% annually over the next few years."

Talisman announced first gas production from the Northern Fields in July 2008, with sales of 75 mmcf/d (gross), which has been ramping up since then. Sales gas from the development is piped to Malaysia and Vietnam via the Talisman operated Southern Fields development (also in PM-3 CAA). Talisman's net production in Malaysia/Vietnam averaged 31,000 boe/d in 2008.

This project is the culmination of several years of commitment and cooperation between Talisman, Petronas, PetroVietnam, and numerous fabricators in Malaysia and Vietnam. The project is comprised of over 70 reservoirs, 50 wells, three wellhead riser platforms, a central processing platform, a floating storage and offloading tanker and over 100 kilometres of subsea pipelines.

Talisman Malaysia operates Block PM-3 CAA and, together with its affiliate Talisman Malaysia (PM3) Limited, holds a 41.44% interest. Petronas Carigali Sdn. Bhd. holds a 46.06% interest and PetroVietnam Exploration Production Corporation Limited holds a 12.5% interest.

Talisman Energy Inc. is an independent upstream oil and gas company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The Company and its subsidiaries have operations in North America, the North Sea, Southeast Asia and North Africa. Talisman's subsidiaries are also active in a number of other international areas. Talisman is committed to conducting its business in an ethically, socially and environmentally responsible manner. The Company is a participant in the United Nations Global Compact and included in the Dow Jones Sustainability (North America) Index. Talisman's shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada and the New York Stock Exchange in the United States under the symbol TLM.

Advisories

This news release contains statements that constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively "forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. This forward-looking information includes, among others, statements regarding:

- estimated production, production growth and timing;

- business plans for drilling, exploration, development and estimated timing;

- business strategy and plans; and

- other expectations, beliefs, plans, goals, objectives, assumptions, information and statements about possible future events, conditions, results of operations or performance.

The forward-looking information listed in this news release is based on Talisman's 2009 capital spending program as announced on January 13, 2009. The material assumptions supporting the 2009 capital spending program are: (1) 2009 annual production of approximately 430,000 boe/d; (2) a US$40/bbl WTI oil price for 2009; and (3) a US$5/mmbtu NYMEX natural gas price for 2009.

Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks, which could cause actual results to vary and in some instances to differ materially from those anticipated by Talisman and described in the forward-looking information contained in this news release. The material risk factors include, but are not limited to:

- the risks of the oil and gas industry, such as operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas, market demand and unpredictable facilities outages;

- risks and uncertainties involving geology of oil and gas deposits;

- potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures;

- fluctuations in oil and gas prices, foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates;

- risks in conducting foreign operations (for example, political and fiscal instability or the possibility of civil unrest or military action);

- changes in general economic and business conditions;

- the possibility that government policies or laws may change or governmental approvals may be delayed or withheld; and

- uncertainties as to the availability and cost of financing and changes in capital markets.

Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risks and uncertainties is not exhaustive. Additional information on these and other factors, which could affect the Company's operations or financial results are included in the Company's most recent Annual Information Form and Annual Financial Report. In addition, information is available in the Company's other reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

Forward-looking information is based on the estimates and opinions of the Company's management at the time the information is released. The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change, except as required by law.

Gross Production

In this news release, Talisman makes reference to production volumes. Such production volumes are stated on a gross basis, which means they are stated prior to the deduction of royalties and similar payments. In the US, net production volumes are reported after the deduction of these amounts. US readers may refer to the table headed "Continuity of Proved Net Reserves" in Talisman's most recent Annual Information Form for a statement of Talisman's net production volumes by reporting segment that are comparable to those made by US companies subject to SEC reporting and disclosure requirements.

Boe conversion

In this news release, the calculation of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated at a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet (mcf) of natural gas for one barrel of oil and is based on an energy equivalence conversion method. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy equivalence conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalence at the wellhead.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Talisman Energy Inc. - Media and General Inquiries
David Mann, Vice-President,
Corporate & Investor Communications
(403) 237-1196
(403) 237-1210 (FAX)
Email: tlm@talisman-energy.com
Website: www.talisman-energy.com

Recession strikes again

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The numbers are in....and Canada's economy is in big trouble. It shrank 0.7 per cent in January, in line with expectations from economists and a slight improvement over December, when economic output plunged a full 1 per cent.

No one is celebrating: The decline marks the sixth consecutive monthly contraction in the economy, with gross domestic product down 2.4 per cent over the past 12 months and showing signs of getting a lot worse based on recent performance.

Benjamin Reitzes, economist, BMO Nesbitt Burns: “The December/January declines mark the worst two-month performance for GDP in at least 11 years. If GDP manages to stand pat in February and March (which might be wishful thinking), the economy would still be on pace to contract at a more than 6 per cent annualized rate, a record back to 1961. The global recession hit home in the first quarter.”

Millan Mulraine, economics strategist, TD Securities: “There is no getting away from the fact that the Canadian economy is in the depths of a rather profound economic recession, and from the evidence so far this year, it clearly appears that the economy may have taken a dramatic turn for the worse. ... In the final analysis, this report will provide further ammunition for the Bank of Canada to reduce the policy rate even further when they meet late April with a real likelihood that they may engage in quantitative easing as they attempt to provide further monetary stimulus to the Canadian economy.”

[amp]nbsp;

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Monday, March 30, 2009

Scam Alert National Home Services At Your Door Next?

Geoff Daye
Sales Scammer
National Home Services

Whitby, Ontario,
Canada
This is the piano player by night sales con man by day

This is a public service message,
and this guy should think twice about decieving prospects
with internet search available

MySpaceForThieves






Just tonight, an agent from National Home Service - Water Heater Division came by to check my water heater. He said since it is 10 years old, I should probably change it. So then he explains how National will replace mine with a high efficiency model with $0 installation fee but a slight increase to my monthly rental charge (to $24.25). They will also return my existing one to Enbridge and there will be no charge to me. Now here is the problem...

This agreement is for a 15 year term which he never even mentioned.
Its in the fine print.


  1. Which he doesn`t give you a chance to read.
  2. Hustles you on the point of when can we install the new unit.
  3. He leads you to believe that this is an Enbridge program all heaters are being replaced,
  4. He has to come in and check the heater for installation of the new one.
  5. Enters under a completely false pretense and costume
  6. Dresses like a blue collar meter reader , construction type with orange vest and clipboard.
Its all a con, he asks you to get your enbridge bill since he needs that to get your account number to complete the scam.

He says whats a good day to do the installation
then he says sign here to authorize our installers to do the work.

What you are signing is a 15 year rental contract for more money then Enbridge charges and that is never mentioned by design.

He may look like blue collar enbridge installers, but they talk like vacuum cleaner sales people ready to steal your money for huge commissions. Beware and Don`t get sucked in.


They are thieves and you are their next prey. I showed them the door, they would NOT allow me to read the contract and they would not leave the contract. 24.25 x 15 year = $4365.00

Warning! DON'T LET THEM STEP INTO YOUR HOUSE AND DON'T SIGN ANYTHING

Nothing about them on Enbridge
http://www.nationalhomeservices.ca/

SCAM ALERT DO NOT BUY FROM
http://www.nationalhomeservices.ca/

Canaccord Capital cutting 20% of its brokers

http://a123.g.akamai.net/f/123/12465/1d/www.financialpost.com/canaccord.jpg

Monday, March 30, 2009

Canaccord Capital cutting 20% of its brokers

Barbara Shecter and Barry Critchley,  Financial Post 

 Malcolm Taylor for National Post

Canada's largest independent broker Canaccord Capital Inc. is shedding a substantial chunk of its staff for the second time in less than six months, this time cutting deep into its pool of brokers.

Canaccord is getting rid of about 20% of its broker contingent by targeting "under-performing" brokers over the next couple of days, said Scott Davidson, managing director and global head of marketing and communications.

"We are in the process of reducing our broker count by about 75," said Mr. Davidson, adding that the firm hopes to retain the bulk of the business through a program that provides bridge financing to remaining brokers who want to buy books of business from those who are departing from the firm.

"This is a decision based on strategy, not market conditions," Mr. Davidson said.

Last October, Vancouver-based Canaccord blamed the market meltdown when it cut 170 jobs, or 10% of global workforce, and reduced executive salaries by as much as 20%. Many of those jobs were administrative, as Canaccord along with other broker-dealers attempted to weather the growing financial and economic downturn without losing their big money-producing employees.

October proved to be a brutal month in the business, with sales and commission trading drying up and investment banking activity languishing at fellow independents such as GMP Capital Trust. Last month, GMP said the worst carnage in the fourth quarter took place in October in its capital markets businesses.

Gyrating global stock markets have added to the pain at broker-dealers.

Canaccord had private client assets under administration of $9-billion at the end of December, down 39% from $13-billion a year earlier.

Since November, Canaccord's private client business has been run by John Rothwell, a 30-year financial services veteran with firms including Midland Walwyn Capital and Fidelity Investments.

A company statement when he was hired described his mandate as "focused on talent acquisition, product and service development, and enhanced revenue and asset growth."

In February, Canaccord began to lay out plans for a retention bonus to reward top performers that insiders say will rival the packages at some of Canada's bank-owned broker-dealers.

The bonus plan, which is understood to increase substantially for brokers who generate $1-million in revenue, was promised when Mr. Rothwell joined the firm.

Analysts say tough market conditions have increased competition between independent dealers and bank-owned dealers in Canada as the overall business pie has shrunk.

Monday, MF Global Ltd., a broker of exchange-traded futures and options contracts, shuttered offices in Vancouver, Calgary and Winnipeg that housed 26 brokers.

The brokerage also has offices in Toronto, Montreal and Markham, Ontario. MF Global, the former brokerage unit of hedge fund manager Man Group Plc, lost 94% of its market value last year.

  1. GM, Chrysler rocked by hardline from Washington

    Monday, Mar 30, 2009
    The Obama administration pledged only to fund GM's operations for the next 60 days while it develops a sweeping restructuring plan, instead of granting GM's request for up to a further US$16-billion in loans.

  2. Tough times require tough bosses

    Monday, Mar 23, 2009
    When there is a high sense of urgency around getting things done, a more structured leadership style is appropriate

  3. Automakers have 'limited' time to improve plans

    Monday, Mar 30, 2009
    U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday said survival plans put forward so far by automakers General Motors and Chrysler didn't go far enough and they have a "limited time" to improve them if they are to receive more government aid.

  4. Bankers to get keys to kingdom

    Monday, Mar 30, 2009
    Senior policymakers from the Group of 20 nations, led by those in Washington, are likely to agree this week to give their central bankers more power to ensure there's no return of the type of credit crisis that has rocked the global financial system.

  5. TSX tumbles as markets do 'reality check'

    Monday, Mar 30, 2009
    North American markets were back in negative territory on Monday, as concerns about U.S. banks and the auto industry took centre stage once again.

  6. Ottawa gives automakers $4-billion bridge loan

    Monday, Mar 30, 2009
    Ottawa has given the Canadian arms of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC additional time to come up with a “believable” restructuring plan that incorporates further cost savings and contain more reasonable assumptions about auto sales.

  7. GM CEO Rick Wagoner to step down: source

    Sunday, Mar 29, 2009
    General Motors Corp Chief Executive Rick Wagoner will resign from the top job at the struggling automaker, a person familiar with the matter said Sunday

  8. Blame it on the followers of Keynes

    Friday, Mar 27, 2009
    As the United States, Canada and other countries unleash trillions of dollars of economic stimulus packages on the world’s teetering financial system, it may be helpful to recall that the last time governments tried to "fix" the economy with mountains of borrowed money, it ended up making the problem worse.

  9. Chrysler Canada talks await Obama statement

    Sunday, Mar 29, 2009
    More than 3,000 Canadian Auto Workers members turned out to a Chrysler membership meeting in Windsor, Ont. Sunday and voted to support their leadership’s use of a recent General Motors Corp. agreement as leverage in their negotiations with Chrysler LLC.

  10. Edible Arrangements blooms with fresh idea

    Sunday, Mar 29, 2009
    Call it resilient franchising: While some large franchise chains have been busy closing stores, cutting staff and otherwise suffering the effects of a drop in sales, there are others who are quietly doubling sales and expanding franchise locations by 15% or more.

Pescod says...



Where's the bull?:Contemplating oil which dropped today...$4-billion in aid for Canadian car makers

Where's the bull?

RTGAM



Any confidence that had come creeping back into the stock market over the past few weeks was shredded on Monday, after renewed concerns about the financial sector and the rising possibility of bankruptcy in the auto sector sent investors scrambling for cover.


The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 7522.02, down 254.16 points, or 3.3 per cent. The broader S&P 500 closed at 787.53, down 28.41 points or 3.5 per cent. Both declines were the biggest one-day setbacks for the indexes since they began a three-week rebound that sent the S&P 500 up as much as 24.7 per cent from its intraday low - the steepest rise since the 1930s.


General Motors Corp. fell 25.4 per cent after the Obama administration rejected the auto maker's plan to stay viable, sacked its chief executive over the weekend and then floated the idea that it prefers a bankruptcy filing to reorganize the ailing company.


Although GM has withered to a relatively minor part of the stock market, given that it trades at just $2.70 (U.S.) a share, investors are clearly concerned about widespread layoffs, not to mention the impact on parts suppliers. Still, despite the threat of bankruptcy hanging over the stock, it is still trading more than 110 per cent above its low point in early March.


Financials were also weak on Monday, after the U.S. Treasury Secretary said in a weekend interview that, despite some optimism in the sector, some banks are going to need considerable government assistance. At the same time, a draft communique from the G20 dashed hopes for a recovery in the second half of this year, instead suggesting that the global economic slowdown could persist until the end of 2010.


Citigroup Inc. fell 11.8 per cent and Bank of America Corp. fell 17.9 per cent. General Electric Co., which has a large and struggling financial arm, fell 7.9 per cent - taking the stock back below $10, to $9.93.


In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index closed at 8596.22, down 224.84 points, or 2.6 per cent. The index, which had poked into positive territory last week for the year to date, has now fallen 4.4 per cent in 2009.


Among financials, Manulife Financial Corp. fell 8.5 per cent, Royal Bank of Canada fell 3.2 per cent and Toronto-Dominion Bank fell 4.2 per cent.


Energy stocks were down after the price of crude oil fell below the threshold of $50 a barrel again, to $48.41, down $3.97. Suncor Energy Inc. fell 3.8 per cent, Talisman Energy Inc. fell 1.5 per cent and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. fell 5.3 per cent.


Gold producers were among the few winners, even though the price of gold fell to about $915 an ounce, down nearly $8. Barrick Gold Corp. rose 3 per cent and Goldcorp Inc. rose 2 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail


Contemplating oil

Print this article
Monday, March 30, 2009


The price of crude oil is well off its lows of $32.40 (U.S.) a barrel in mid-December, which has investors wondering whether there's more room to run.

Dina Cover of TD Securities noted that the rally in the price of crude oil to a high of $54 a barrel last week was based on increased optimism of a global economic recovery and data suggesting that fuel consumption rose during the previous week.

“However, crude oil fundamentals do not support a price in the mid-$50s, and this morning, prices have fallen back below $51 per barrel as renewed economic concerns filtered into the market,” she said in a note.

Patricia Mohr, an economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, remains more upbeat. She[amp]nbsp;argued that recent production cuts implemented by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have taken out 3.3 million barrels a day – and additional pledges for production cuts could bring that total to 4.2 million barrels a day. That is far greater than the 2.4 million barrels a day decline in year-over-year oil consumption in 2009, suggesting that supply is not out of whack with demand.

“While oil demand could retreat further in the second quarter of 2009, OPEC's cuts will go a long way towards rebalancing world markets, particularly if world demand levels out in the second half of 2009,” she said in a note, adding that non-OPEC supplies are declining. She believes that oil prices will rally to $65 a barrel in 2010 and over $75 in the medium term.[amp]nbsp;



$4-billion in aid for Canadian car makers

Print this article
Shawn McCarthy and Greg Keenan
Monday, March 30, 2009

Ottawa, Toronto — The federal and Ontario governments have committed to provide $4-billion in short-term loans to General Motors of Canada Ltd. and Chrysler LLC, but the two companies must negotiate deeper savings from their workers and suppliers before the governments agree to a long-term restructuring plan.

The governments are forcing General Motors to negotiate further reductions in retiree pension and benefit costs with its Canadian Auto Workers union, just weeks after the company and union agreed to a deal that GM said would make it competitive with foreign-owned car makers in North America.

On Monday afternoon, CAW chief Ken Lewenza said the union will not reopen talks with GM Canada.

“We have determined that further fundamental changes for both companies are needed,” Federal Industry Minister Tony Clement said in Ottawa on Monday.

Chrysler must achieve deep cost reductions in its now-stalled negotiations with the CAW and also conclude a strategic alliance with Italian auto maker Fiat SpA.

Following the lead of the U.S. administration, Ottawa has given General Motors two months to conclude its viability plan, and will lend it $3-billion until then.

Chrysler has one month to conclude its work, and can borrow $1-billion; the company was expected to draw down $250-million of that amount Monday.

The companies eventually hope to borrow $11.5-billion from the Canadian governments to finance their long-term restructuring plans.

Ottawa is also demanding that the companies restrict the compensation of their top Canadian executives, including no performance bonuses for 2008, no raises in 2009 and no “golden parachutes” for executives who leave the firms.

Mr. Clement and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, along with Ontario Economic Development Minister Michael Bryant, announced the decision at a news conference in Ottawa Monday.

In a television interview Sunday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said his government had “no choice” but to provide some assistance to see whether it could rescue the struggling car companies.

“If we're going to put taxpayer money in this, we have to make sure it works,” Mr. Harper told Fox News. “And I think, given the scope and the size of this industry, we have no choice.”

General Motors – which employs 15,000 people in Canada – has asked the federal and Ontario government to provide up to $7.5-billion in long-term funding to maintain its 20-per-cent share of North American production in Canada.

Chrysler – with 9,400 workers in Canada – has asked for $4-billion to maintain a 25-per-cent share of production here.

Mr. Clement has stressed the aid would not only save direct production jobs but protect the vast web of domestic suppliers that feed the Canadian plants.

The two Detroit companies reached this point because of “a failure of leadership from Washington to Detroit,” President Barack Obama said Monday in outlining the U.S. government's response.

“These companies and this industry must ultimately stand on their own and not as wards of the state,” Mr. Obama said.

The President raised the possibility that one or both Chrysler and GM may have to go into bankruptcy protection to win the concessions needed from stakeholders.

In fact, “given the magnitude of the concessions needed, the most effective way for Chrysler to emerge from this restructuring with a fresh start may be by using an expedited bankruptcy process as a tool to extinguish liabilities,” the U.S. government said in a document outlining ways that the two companies might repair themselves.

After consultations with U.S. officials, the Canadian governments determined GM was not viable under the restructuring plan it submitted in February, and needed to make a more realistic assessment of future car sales and its share of the market, and find deeper cost savings from workers, management, dealers and suppliers.

Chrysler is seen as not viable as a stand-alone company and needs to conclude a strategic alliance with Fiat to qualify for further taxpayer assistance.

Ottawa insists that, while the short-term loans are not “risk-free,” they are well secured by the Canadian assets of both companies. As well, the Canadian governments will receive warrants that can be converted to GM shares, and additional guarantees from Detroit-based, privately owned Chrysler.

Chrysler, which is battling the Canada Revenue Agency over $1-billion in back taxes, cannot use the loan proceeds to pay back taxes.

Chrysler president Tom LaSorda told a parliamentary committee that, in order to close its alliance with Fiat, the company needs a letter from Canada Revenue that the government will not seek more security on the tax liability. Government officials won't say whether Canada Revenue has agreed to provide that letter.

The U.S. government wants Chrysler to wring more concessions out of the United Auto Workers at its U.S. operations, a demand that is likely to further complicate the stalled talks between the auto maker and its Canadian workers.

“Chrysler, Fiat and the UAW need to reach an agreement that entails greater concessions than those outlined in the existing loan agreements,” the U.S. government's task force on the auto industry said in its analysis of the Chrysler viability plan released early Monday.

Chrysler and the CAW are at loggerheads over a cut of $19 in the auto maker's $76 hourly labour costs in Canada. The company insists it needs concessions that will generate a savings of that amount, while the CAW has countered that it will not provide more concessions to Chrysler than it gave to GM Canada in an earlier agreement.

Talks between the union and Chrysler were put on hold over the weekend while the two sides awaited the U.S. administration's verdict on whether Chrysler is viable.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Last chance for GM, Chrysler?



Last chance for GM, Chrysler?

John Crawley, Helen Massy-Beresford
Reuters

Mar 30, 2009

WASHINGTON/PARIS – The Obama administration seized the wheel of the failing U.S. auto industry on Monday, forcing out General Motors Corp's CEO, pushing Chrysler LLC toward a merger and threatening bankruptcy for both.

GM shares plunged around 20 per cent in Frankfurt after steps outlined by the White House autos panel marked a stunning reversal for management at both GM and private equity-owned Chrysler.

The moves came after Europe's second-biggest carmaker by sales – PSA Peugeot Citroen – ousted CEO Christian Streiff, replacing him with former Corus head Philippe Varin from June 1.

The Obama administration pledged only to fund GM's operations for the next 60 days while it develops a sweeping restructuring plan, instead of granting GM's request for up to a further $16 billion (dollar figures U.S.) in loans.

GM CEO Rick Wagoner, who had presided over the company's rapid decline in the past five years and had run the automaker since 2000, was forced out at the request of the autos panel headed by former investment banker Steve Rattner. A majority of GM's board will also be replaced.

"We are left to look back and say that Wagoner's appointment as both chairman and CEO in 2003 was little more than an act to ensure the dynasty of GM boardroom arrogance and failure continued," said Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at brokerage BGC Partners.

Wheeldon said Wagoner's departure had been all but inevitable since the automaker sought government funds and said he was disappointed the authorities had not insisted on an external replacement.

UNDER FIRE

Wagoner protégé and GM President and Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson was named as new CEO. Wagoner's departure came as the Obama administration came under fire for not blocking bonuses to executives at American International Group Inc.

The senior labour leader of GM's German brand Opel, being spun off with the UK's Vauxhall and seeking investors and government support, said the move was overdue.

In Europe, auto stocks fell on concerns about the broader industry impact of the failure of a major U.S. producer. The DJ Stoxx European autos index fell 6.4 per cent by mid morning, while PSA Peugeot Citroen fell 7.7 per cent.

In France PSA Chairman Thierry Peugeot said in a statement the exceptional difficulties faced by the industry warranted a change in management, but Streiff defended himself saying his policies had equipped the group to weather the storm.

Some analysts viewed the appointment of Philippe Varin as positive.

"It brings somebody in that can look at the problem with fresh eyes. The hope will be that he will have a similar impact here to the impact (Sergio) Marchionne had at Fiat, and indeed Varin had at Corus," said Credit Suisse analyst Stuart Pearson.

Elsewhere, Russia's Avtovaz bucked the trend, its shares surging after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged 20 billion roubles in aid, while Spain's plan to grant subsidies for green cars won approval from the European Commission.

Chrysler, controlled by Cerberus Capital Management, was given 30 days to complete an alliance with Italy's Fiat or face a cut-off of its government funding that could force its liquidation.

Fiat was not immediately available for comment.

The autos panel rejected a claim by Cerberus that Chrysler could be viable on its own, citing its relatively small size, weak product line-up and declining U.S. market share.

AGGRESSIVE RESTRUCTURING

If Chrysler can complete a tie-up with Fiat and cost-saving deals with creditors and its major union, the Treasury would consider investing up to another $6 billion, officials said.

U.S. officials said there had been progress in recent negotiations involving the task force. Fiat had agreed to take less than the 35 per cent stake in Chrysler the two companies had first negotiated, the senior official said.

Meanwhile, Henderson, a key architect of GM's now-rejected turnaround plan, was charged with working with U.S. officials and advisers to develop a more aggressive restructuring.

"We believe our approach to GM is starting with a clean sheet of paper," the senior official said.

GM bondholders, the official said, could have to take less than the 33-cent-on-the-dollar payout they have been offered and should abandon hope of a government guarantee.

The Obama administration had also not ruled out a quick bankruptcy process for either GM or Chrysler, he said.

Wagoner had been outspoken in his opposition to a Chapter 11 reorganization, saying it would drive away consumers and probably lead to GM's liquidation.

GM had asked for more than $16 billion in new government loans, while Chrysler wanted $5 billion to ride out the weakest market for new cars in almost 30 years.

GM has lost about $82 billion since 2005 when its problems began to mount in the U.S. market. GM stock has also lost about 95 per cent of its value since Wagoner took over as CEO. Although he inherited many of the company's deeper problems, his critics say he failed to act fast enough to resolve them.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Count me in on this golden stock buying opportunity


"There hasn't been a recession yet that hasn't ended."

Abby Joseph Cohen, a partner and chief U.S. investment strategist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. during the Squawk Financial Summit aired on CNBC March 24.

I was delighted to hear a practical observation from an economist because as a personal rule, I usually tune out the economists and their forecasts.

I find their little graphs displaying changes in retail sales, initial jobless claims, CPI, GDP, housing starts and so on to have no relevance to the stock market.

Cohen began her career as an economist in 1973 at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., serving until 1977.

She worked as an economist and quantitative research director for T. Rowe Price Associates.

She crossed over to the money management side, obtaining her chartered financial analyst charterholder designation in 1980.

She joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York City as a vice-president and co-chair of the firm's investment policy committee in 1990 and was named a managing director in 1996.

Cohen developed a reputation as a so-called "perpetual bull" and was ridiculed for her bullish predictions.

Her reputation was further damaged when she failed to foresee the great crash of 2008.

Aside from the bad calls, Cohen's "visionary" style is admirable. When Cohen says there is $4 trillion (U.S.) in sideline cash and this is "the investment opportunity for a generation," I am all ears.

Now before I find myself being drawn into another compelling story spun by a very clever personality on business television I have to understand that my investments are my sole decision and responsibility.

The reality is that followers of any business media program must understand the host, the guest and the network do not guarantee any specific profit or loss outcome of any recommendation.

Viewers should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any advice you hear on any business media show.

Clearly, we must do our homework before acting because we need to know if the great bear of 2007-2008 has run its course. There are two basic tests to be satisfied in order to determine if the time is right to invest.

We know that bear markets are the result of falling stock prices. Falling stock prices are technically in a down trend as set out in a series of lower highs and lower lows. We also know that new bull markets need leadership from the important sectors such as financial, energy and technology

I have never seen a new bull market get underway without leadership from at least two of these important stock groups.

Let us assume the lows of October through November 2008 to be significant because every stock sector (including the gold index) posted new 52-week lows during that period.

Let us also assume lows of March to be significant because many stock sectors such as consumer staples, energy, materials and technology did not violate their October through November lows.

Our chart this week is that of the daily closes of the iShares CDN S&P/TSX Energy Index Fund (TSX-XEG) plotted above the SPDR Technology Select Sector Fund (NYSE-XLK).

Note both of these important leaders have so far not violated their important October—November lows. Both the U.S. and Canadian financial indices are trading above their respective October — November lows.

Most bear markets post a new low about every 12 to 16 weeks – and so far all of the important stock sectors and major indices are trading above their lows of 20-plus weeks ago.

This is clearly a base building process which satisfies the condition required to make a technical call for the end of the bear market in global equities.

Abby you got me, count me in on "the investment opportunity for a generation."

Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Pescod says...

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Holy bull!

Holy bull!

RTGAM


Investors who believe that the North American stocks are merely caught up in a bear market rally, taking a temporary breather from their long-term decline, must have felt a peculiar pain in their stomachs on Thursday: For the second day running, major indexes shrugged off midday jitters to post sizable gains in the afternoon, raising eyebrows as they blew past technical hurdles.


The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 7924.56, up 174.75 points, or 2.3 per cent. The broader S&P 500 closed at 832.86, up 18.98 points, or 2.3 per cent. The index has now risen nearly 25 per cent from its intraday low in early March, hinting at a new bull market. As well, the index has risen well above its 50-day moving average, once seen as a point of resistance. Meanwhile, the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index surged 3.8 per cent, putting it up for the year by 0.6 per cent.


The latest moves came as investors grew increasingly confident that the U.S. economy is showing tentative signs of bottoming out, despite yet another nasty report on weekly jobless claims.


On Thursday, better-than-expected quarterly results from Best Buy Co. Inc. added to the impression that consumer spending isn't dead. As well, a government bond auction went according to plan, easing concerns that arose on Wednesday when bonds were sold at higher-than-expected yields, suggesting that the market's appetite for government debt was waning.


The rally was widespread: 28 of the 30 stocks in the Dow rose, as did 87 per cent of the stocks in the S&P 500.


Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., which had enjoyed outsized gains in much of the recent trading activity, were left on the sidelines on Thursday, falling 1.6 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively.


Still, many of the big movers appeared to signify more confidence in companies that stand to benefit from an improving economy. General Motors Corp. rose 14.1 per cent, American Express Co. rose 7.2 per cent, Hewlett-Packard Co. rose 7.1 per cent and Caterpillar Inc. rose 6.5 per cent.


The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 8995.50, up 198.06 points, or 2.3 per cent - putting the benchmark index up for the year, by about 0.1 per cent, after being under water since January. Financials did okay, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce up 1.2 per cent and Toronto-Dominion Bank up 0.8 per cent.


However, the real stars of the day were companies that tend to be more economically cyclical. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. led the way, rising 7.3 per cent. Canadian National Railway Co. rose 7 per cent, Research In Motion Ltd. rose 5.9 per cent and Suncor Energy Inc. rose 5.2 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Interesting Day



Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Another day, another whipsaw


TLM After Hours HUGE Trades Ready To Run Thru $14.00 on the way to $18.00


What an hour

RTGAM






Another day, another whipsaw.


U.S. stocks emerged in positive territory on Wednesday after a remarkable retreat in afternoon trading sent major indexes down 4 per cent from their intraday highs before recovering in the final hour of trading. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 7749.81, up 89.84 points, or 1.2 per cent. The broader S&P 500 closed at 813.88, up 7.63 points, or 1 per cent.


Both indexes began the day strongly, with investors feeling upbeat about the better-than-expected rise in new-home sales and durable goods orders for February - interpreting both moves as early signs that the deterioration in the U.S. economy could be bottoming out.


However, investors were taken aback by a disappointing Treasuries auction, which saw five-year notes sold at lower prices - or higher yields - than expected, which fed doubts about the U.S. Federal Reserve's determination to bring down borrowing costs using so-called quantitative easing.


Those concerns eased in the late afternoon, sending stocks up again but nowhere near their highs earlier in the day. U.S. home building stocks surged nearly 14 per cent in the morning, after a report showed that new-homes sales rose 4.7 per cent, month-over-month, in February even as they remained near record lows. However, the stocks surrendered most of those gains by the afternoon, ending the day up 3.1 per cent.


Among financials, Bank of America Corp. rose 6.7 per cent, despite receiving a credit downgrade on its preferred shares to junk status. JPMorgan rose 8.2 per cent but Citigroup Inc. fell 2 per cent.


In other moves, McDonald's Corp. rose 2.7 per cent and Boeing Co. rose 2.7 per cent. General Motors Corp. fell 6.6 per cent.


In Canada, the benchmark index never fully recovered from its afternoon selloff. The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 8797.44, down 51.95 points, or 0.6 per cent - down 185 points from its intraday high.


Research In Motion Ltd. fell 4.4 per cent after the BlackBerry maker was downgraded to an "underweight" recommendation by an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who argued that the recession will slow subscriber growth over the next 18 months.


Financials were mixed. Manulife Financial Corp. fell 3.6 per cent and Royal Bank of Canada fell 0.8 per cent, but Toronto-Dominion Bank rose 0.3 per cent.


Energy stocks fell after the price of crude oil dipped to $52.77 (U.S.) a barrel, down $1.21. Suncor Energy Inc. fell 0.3 per cent and EnCana Corp. fell 2.5 per cent. Gold producers were strong, after the price of gold rose to $935.80 an ounce, up $12. Goldcorp Inc. rose 3.2 per cent and Barrick Gold Corp. rose 2.4 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Pescod says...


Tuesday, March 24, 2009

BNK and More



MARKET TALK: Don't Underestimate NAL Oil's Dealmaking Ability

MARKET TALK: Don't Underestimate NAL Oil's Dealmaking Ability

10:53 EDT Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Print this article
   Edited by John Shipman    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES     

10:53 (Dow Jones) NAL Oil (NAE.UN.T) is stronger than its bigger rivals might think when it comes to making acquisitions. Take for example, NAL's pact to acquire Alberta Clipper Energy (ACN.T). The deal calls for NAL's strategic partner Manulife (MFC) to buy a 50% working interest in ACN.T's assets and NAL will use these proceeds to reduce debt. CIBC says MFC's "financial flexibility and focused interest in direct ownership of oil and gas assets allows NAE.UN.T to fight above its weight" when targeting acquisition opportunities. In Toronto, NAE.UN.T recently down 3.8% at C$6.51. (BED)

10:44 (Dow Jones) T-3 Energy (TTES) shares tumble after the oilfield company says Chairman, CEO Gus Halas leaves "to pursue other interests." Pritchard Cap's Brian Uhlmer says investors are probably unhappy with lack of transition period for Halas, who's being replaced by former TTES director and Natl Oilwell Varco ( NOV) CFO Steven Krablin. Uhlmer says there could be uncertainty over direction since Krablin is known for being more aggressive than Halas in terms of acquisitions. TTES down 27% to $10.82. (JHT)

10:33 (Dow Jones) Kynikos Associates president Jim Chanos -- pivoting from his op-ed in today's WSJ urging preservation of mark-to-market or another "honest accounting" model -- tells CNBC his short-centric firm won't be party to Treasury's now-detailed plan for toxic-asset cleanup, though he likes its prospects. "We have thought about looking at it, but ... I think there are better opportunities elsewhere -- not because we don't think we could possibly make money, we just think the political risks are too high," says Chanos, who's wary of complaints about his ilk, even though hedgies bucked the finance industry trend of taking taxpayer bucks. "My God, if short-sellers made money doing this, think about the hue and outcry." (JB)

10:28 (Dow Jones) Yesterday's rally, a "big, big rally," pushed the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average, an important marker, UBS' Art Cashin notes. But it has just as quickly produced a heavily overbought market, so some pullback is in order, he says. But the bulls must take care to keep it orderly. "Back at the beginning of the year, we had a rally that took the S&P above the 50 DMA," he says. "That lasted a week." He sees resistance around 840-845, and support at 804. DJIA off 75; S&P 500 down 9. (PJV)

10:25 (Dow Jones) Goldman Sachs upgrades CBS to neutral from sell, saying its current valuation overestimates risk of financial distress at the media company. The firm remains cautious on the advertising-heavy company's prospects in the recession, lowering 2009, 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates 6%-25%. But Goldman notes CBS is the only network growing its ratings this year. Firm says "while the near-term dollar impact of likely share gains in network ads is small relative to declines in the local TV station ad market, the success fortifies the longer- term syndication pipeline." CBS up 0.9% at $4.46. (NAT)

10:21 (Dow Jones) Dundee Securities sees some irony after its analysis of CF Industries' (CF) rationale for rejecting Agrium's (AGU) takeover bid. CF makes the point that the timing of the offer is "opportunistic" because of the recent decline in valuations across the fertilizer sector. Analyst Richard Kelertas says it's hard to argue with that, but CF's own bid for Terra (TRA) isn't any different in that respect. "We believe that both companies are attempting to purchase at a cyclical low in the industry which, in our opinion, makes perfect business sense," Kelertas says. CF off a fraction; AGU down 0.9%. (AMG)

10:17 (Dow Jones) Existing home sales data show one bright spot: housing seems to be falling at a decelerating level, FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz writes on his blog. Even though year-over-year prices are still dropping at a double-digit pace, unit sales are falling at a slower pace, he says. "The second derivative improvement suggests that we may be nearing a point where the unit sales may stop dropping," Ritholtz writes. "But that does not mean we are at a bottom yet, and it certainly does not imply a turnaround is at hand." (SMR) (http:// www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/annual-existing-home-sales-errata/)

10:08 (Dow Jones) Banks open lower -- as could be expected after huge rally yesterday sparked by Treasury's plan to clean up toxic assets -- but recently paring declines. RBC says the program is a positive "but no silver bullet for weak bank fundamentals," and warns clients of continued credit deterioration led by commercial real estate and construction loans. Bank of America slides 3.5% to $7.52; Citi drops 3%; to $3.03; JPMorgan off 1.4% to $28.46; Wells Fargo loses 3.8% to $16.66. (DMK)

10:01 (Dow Jones) Williams-Sonoma (WSM) managed 4Q expenses and inventory well in a dismal environment for discretionary home furnishings, pushing EPS ex items to 31c vs 16c Street view. But unlike many retailers, its sales outlook suggests the 1Q hasn't seen a pickup in trend, and WSM has a long road ahead, JPMorgan says. "Given the recent move and the fact that earnings are not expected to be positive until 4Q, we think it will be difficult for the stock to hold current levels," firm says. WSM up 7.1% at $11.98 ahead of 10:00am conference call. ( MEL)

9:57 (Dow Jones) Closure of Outback Steakhouse Canada's locations in Ontario gives comfort to Octagon Capital's outlook for competitor Keg Royalties Income Fund (KEG.UN.T). "This eliminates another competitor and proves the theory put forward by Keg management that 'concept or fad restaurants' don't work in the long run," firm says; keeps buy rating for Keg and C$12.50 target price. (AMG)

9:55 (Dow Jones) Emerging-market stocks pull back after yesterday's rally. BoNY's EM ADR index retreats 2.4% at 194; Latin America index down 2.8%, while Asia index declines 2.6%. Brazil miner Vale (RIO) down 4% to $14.32, while Peru's Buenaventura (BVN) declines 4.7% to $22.76 as gold under pressure in New York. (CSS) 

Markets: Sober Tuesday

 Sober Tuesday

Print this article
Tuesday, March 24, 2009


North American stocks took a breather on Tuesday morning – a deep breather – following the stunning rally on Monday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 77 points, or 1 per cent, to 7,699. Boeing Co. and Johnson [amp]amp; Johnson were up marginally but all other stocks in the 30-member index were down at the start of trading.

Financials, which enjoyed by far the biggest gains during Monday's rally, slumped the most. Bank of America Corp. fell 7 per cent, American Express Co. fell 6 per cent and Citigroup Inc. fell 5 per cent. General Electric, which was downgraded by Moody's Investors Services, fell 2.5 per cent.

In Canada, the S[amp]amp;P/TSX composite index fell 151 points, or 1.7 per cent, to 8,808. Energy stocks were down, following euphoria on Tuesday when Suncor Energy Inc. announced a takeover deal with Petro-Canada. Suncor fell 3 per cent, Petro-Canada fell 2.2 per cent and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. fell 2.4 per cent.

Financials were down marginally. Bank of Montreal fell 1 per cent, Bank of Nova Scotia fell 0.8 per cent and Manulife Financial Corp. fell 2.7 per cent.

[amp]nbsp;

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Monday, March 23, 2009

Suncor buys PetroCan for $18B


OTTAWA – Suncor Energy is in advanced talks to acquire Petro-Canada in a stock-based deal worth $18 billion, people familiar with the talks said yesterday.

If successful, the merger would combine two of the largest operators in the Canadian oil sands, which have high production costs and have become a target of environmental groups. The deal could be announced as early as today.

Like many in the energy business, both companies have had to deal with falling prices and sagging demand for their oil.

The end of Petro-Canada as an independent company would eliminate the last vestige of an ambitious and highly controversial program, begun by prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau during the 1970s to assert Canadian control over the country's energy resources.

The $18 billion price would represent about a 30 per cent premium for Petro-Canada, which operates conventional and oil sands production sites, refineries and a nationwide chain of service stations.

A Petro-Canada spokesperson declined to comment. "I'm afraid we don't speculate on rumours," Victoria Barrington told the Star.

Suncor did not return calls.

A takeover of Petro-Canada, a former federal Crown corporation, could be tricky because of legislation barring any one investor from owning more than 20 per cent of the company.

The Petro-Canada Public Participation Act also forbids the company from "selling, transferring or otherwise disposing of all or substantially all of its assets in one transaction, or several related transactions, to any one person or group of associated persons, or to non-residents, other than by way of security only in connection with the financing of Petro-Canada,"

In a securities filing last month, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, which owns about 3.3 per cent of the company, said it had "held discussions with the management and board of Petro-Canada regarding the creation of shareholder value. Other investors have called on the firm to narrow its focus.

Oil Oil Oil Banks Banks Banks Rally Rally Rally



U.S. Plan for Mortgage Debt Gets Initial Support From Investors

U.S. Plan for Mortgage Debt Gets Initial Support From Investors


By Jason Kelly

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. plan to relieve banks of real estate debt won initial support from investors, who set aside for now questions about asset pricing and whether they will be demonized for profiting from the financial crisis.

“This is not a panacea; it is not a silver bullet,” Laurence Fink, chairman of BlackRock Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, said today in an interview. “But this will take some of the overhang out of the marketplace. It is incrementally a really good thing.”

The Obama administration said today it’s counting on investors such as New York-based BlackRock, hedge funds and private-equity firms to buy devalued real estate loans and mortgage-backed securities from banks so they can raise capital and resume lending. The government aims to spur as much as $1 trillion in purchases by providing $100 billion in capital, as well as financing from the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Financial markets rose on speculation the plan will help end the first global recession since World War II. Blackstone Group LP and Fortress Investment Group LLC, New York-based private-equity firms that have said they are interested in increasing their holdings of distressed debt, jumped 28 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. BlackRock gained 10 percent.

“This ambitious program is structured in a way to attract private capital and help banks sell distressed or toxic assets,” said David Marchick, head of government and regulatory affairs at Washington-based Carlyle Group, a closely held private-equity firm.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 3.9 percent to 802.43 at 1:51 p.m. in New York, and the S&P 500 Financials Index climbed 9.8 percent.

Enthusiasm Tempered

The initial enthusiasm was tempered by concern that the plan detailed today by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner still doesn’t address whether banks will be willing or able to unload securities at a loss.

“The big issue is whether the financial institutions will sell securities at below the current marks,” said Richard King, who oversees about $40 billion as head of U.S. fixed-income investments at Invesco Ltd., an Atlanta-based fund manager.

Banks could face another round of writedowns if assets are sold for less than the current value on their books. If that occurs some could need to raise more capital to absorb those losses.

Paulson’s Dilemma

“This is one of the details that sunk the plan initially, and it’s still an issue,” said Steven Persky, chief executive officer of Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based hedge- fund manager that invests in mortgages. He was referring to former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s reversal last October on using federal bailout money to buy troubled assets from banks.

“The structural issue is a real problem that they have to resolve,” he said.

Half of the $75 billion to $100 billion in Treasury’s funds will go to a “Legacy Loans Program” that will be overseen by the FDIC. The Treasury would provide half of the capital going to purchase a pool of mortgages from banks, with private fund managers putting up the rest. The FDIC will then guarantee financing for the investors, up to a maximum of six times the equity provided.

The FDIC will hold auctions for the pools of loans, which will be controlled and managed by the private investors with oversight by the FDIC.

Market Will Work

The second half of the Treasury’s contribution will go to the “Legacy Securities Program.” The objective of the initiative is to generate prices for securities backed by mortgages that are no longer traded because investors have little confidence about the underlying value of the home loans.

“The market will find a way to price these assets,” said Edward Gainor, a partner at law firm McKee Nelson LLP in Washington who advises funds on distressed investments.

BlackRock’s Fink said his company will raise money from investors such as pension funds and endowments for the new Treasury programs. The company might consider creating mutual funds so that individual investors can also participate.

Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer for bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co., said his Newport Beach, California-based firm also would participate in the bailout programs.

‘Win/Win/Win’

“This is perhaps the first win/win/win policy to be put on the table,” Gross said.

Other fund managers that may jump in include Legg Mason Inc. and State Street Corp.

Legg Mason’s Western Asset Management unit, which manages about $550 billion in bonds and money funds, will benefit from participating in government bailout programs, analysts at Jeffries & Co. in San Francisco wrote in a report earlier this month. Mary Athridge, a spokeswoman for Baltimore-based Legg Mason, declined to comment.

State Street spokeswoman Carolyn Cichon said the Boston- based firm is evaluating “what, if any opportunities” will come out of today’s plan. State Street manages about $1.4 trillion through its investment unit.

Lawrence Summers, the White House National Economic Council Director, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today that investors in the new debt plan wouldn’t be subject to compensation restrictions applied to banks rescued by the government.

AIG Factor

Still, questions remain over whether Congress and the administration will keep that promise in the face of mounting public pressure over bonuses paid to employees of American International Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.

“The biggest obstacle is whether the government is going to set limits on executive compensation at these funds,” said Steven Nadel, partner at Seward & Kissel LLP, a New York-based law firm whose clients include hedge funds. “If the government can give assurances that there won’t be limits, then the terms could potentially work out for all involved and create liquidity in these markets.”

The level of participation ultimately lies in the details, an area where the Obama administration has disappointed investors in previous attempts.

“We think there’s a fair amount of money on the sidelines that would be enticed back into the market,” said Andrew McCormick, head of securitized products at T. Rowe Price Group Inc., a Baltimore-based fund manager. “We would expect the program to provide clarity. We wouldn’t want to put our best investors into something where the rules are open to debate later.”

Why Not Nationalize?

Kenneth Windheim, chief investment officer of Strategic Fixed Income LLC in Arlington, Virginia, questioned the underlying premise of the Treasury’s plan: that getting private investors involved is the only way to set asset prices and unclog bank balance sheets.

“It would possibly be cheaper to nationalize the banks, get new management and sell the assets off, rather than heavily subsidize or bribe asset managers into taking part in this program,” said Windheim, whose firm manages $1.7 billion in assets. “It’s the same managers who got us into the financial mess who are now going to benefit.”

U.S. seeks to unfreeze credit markets



WASHINGTON – The Obama administration launched a new effort Monday to end a paralysis in lending, saying it will team with investors to initially buy up to a trillion dollars of bad assets from banks that have been reluctant to make loans to consumers and companies.

In announcing the program, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pleaded for patience, saying that work to rehabilitate an industry with such systemic problems must go forward despite "deep anger and outrage" over executive bonus payments.

Geithner's performance in President Barack Obama's cabinet has come under heavy criticism from some in Congress. The secretary announced the initiative in a Treasury Department room with no cameras allowed. He was with Obama later in the morning, however, when the president spoke briefly, saying he was "very confident" the latest plan will succeed.

Obama called it "one more critical element" in a multi-pronged effort to revive the economy and said the depressed housing market is beginning to show glimmers of hope.

Geithner said the new program will initially seek to harness government and private resources to purchase a half-trillion dollars of bad assets off the balance sheets of banks and said he expects that purchases eventually could grow to $1 trillion.

Wall Street seemed to feel rejuvenated, at least at the opening. In late morning, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 221 at 7,500. Reaction to an earlier administration bank rescue program on Feb. 10 was anything but enthusiastic, with dispirited investors sending the Dow Jones plummeting by 380 points.

The administration's newest toxic-asset repellent was another in a string of banking initiatives that have included efforts to deal directly with mortgage foreclosures, boost lending to small businesses and thaw out the credit markets for many types of consumer loans.

Administration officials said the plan put forth Monday will deploy $75 billion to $100 billion from the government's existing $700 billion bailout program for the purchase of bad assets – resources that will be supported by loans from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and a loan facility being operated by the Federal Reserve.

Under a typical transaction, for every $100 in soured mortgages being purchased from banks, the private sector would put up $7 and that would be matched by $7 from the government. The remaining $86 would be covered by a government loan provided in many cases by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Whereas Geithner suggested there was no alternative to the plan, Republicans said otherwise. House GOP Whip Eric Cantor said he hoped the administration would consider instead an earlier GOP proposal to set up a government-sponsored insurance program for mortgage-related securities.

Cantor called Obama's plan a "shell game" that hid the true cost.

"As described, the plan seems to offer little incentive for private investors to participate unless the subsidy is made so rich that it comes at the expense of the taxpayer," Cantor said in a statement.

Geithner was scheduled to testify on Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

The secretary defended the decision to have the government carry so much of the risk. He said the alternative would have been to do nothing and risk a more prolonged recession or have the government carry all of the risk.

Geithner also said there would be significant advantages from having private market participants bidding against each other to set prices for which the bad assets will be purchased.

"There is no doubt the government is taking risks," he told reporters. "You can't solve a financial crisis without the government taking risks."

Devising bailout plans has never been easy work, and the brouhaha surrounding millions in executive retention bonuses paid out by financially strapped American Insurance Group, Inc., hasn't improved the political atmosphere.

Officials said they expect participation by a broad array of investors ranging from pension funds and insurance companies to hedge funds. To achieve that goal, the program would be set up to entice private investors with low-cost loans provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve. The government itself would shoulder the bulk of the risk.

Geithner has said that the country cannot afford to simply wait for banks to work off these bad assets over time.

Christina Romer, who heads the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said: "It's absolutely about helping a system so that people can get their student loans, and that families can buy their house and buy their cars, and small businesses can get their loans."

The government has been struggling since the credit crisis hit last fall to figure out a way to sop up the bad assets, many of them involving home loans. Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson never did come up with a solution and the Obama team has been wrestling with the same thorny problems of how to price the assets and make sure the government's resources are up to the task.

The program surfaced after a week of Wall Street-bashing in Congress, where lawmakers were outraged with the action by troubled insurance company American International Group Inc. to distribute $165 million in bonuses after obtaining more than $170 billion in government bailouts to remain in business.

Some hedge funds and other investors have expressed reluctance to participate in the new program for fear that Congress will subject them to what they view as onerous restrictions on executive compensation.

But administration officials insisted that they believe they have found the right mix to attract private investors and make a dent in what, by some estimates, could be more than $2 trillion in troubled assets on banks' books.

They said the program has the capacity to purchase $500 billion and possibly as much as $1 trillion in troubled loans, which go back to the collapse of the housing boom and the subsequent tidal wave of foreclosures.

But private analysts believe that with the $700 billion bailout fund nearly tapped out by capital disbursements to banks and lifelines provided the auto companies and AIG, there are only enough resources left to get the asset purchase program launched.

Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody's Economy.com, estimated the government will need another $400 billion to make a sufficient dent in the bad asset problem.

Administration officials said they want to get the new program launched and see how successful it is before deciding whether to ask Congress for more resources.

The administration included a placeholder in its budget request to Congress last month for an additional $750 billion, more than doubling the financial rescue effort, but many lawmakers have said the current bailout fatigue among voters dims the prospect of getting further resources.

According to administration officials, the toxic asset program will include a public-private partnership to back private investors' purchases of bad assets, with government support coming from the $700 billion bailout fund. The government would match private investors dollar for dollar and share any profits equally.


Sunday, March 22, 2009

Eight Is Enough?



Canadian stocks fell yesterday, as investors took profits following eight straight days of gains. The S&P/TSX Composite index fell 184.14 points, or 2.12%, to close at 8506.35 as oil and gold prices slumped after sizable run-ups the day before. For the week, the country's top exchange climbed 2.4% from its previous week close of 8303.39. Meanwhile, the TSX Venture exchange was down 1.77 points, or 0.20%, yesterday, closing at 901.80. The Canadian dollar fell 12 basis points to US80.68¢.

"With commodities down, we didn't have much of a chance yesterday," said Michael Sprung, a portfolio manager at Sprung & Co. Investment Counsel in Toronto. "Particularly after the financials had taken such a run it isn't surprising that people decided to lock some of that in."

Losers outpaced gainers by more than two to one in Toronto, with nine of the exchange's 10 subindices ending the session in the red.

The materials group fell 3.23% as prices for base and precious metals retreated. Gold fell US$2.60 an ounce to US$956.20. Teck Cominco Ltd., (TCK. b/TSX) was among the most active stocks in the metals and mining space, with more than 17 million shares trading hands. After rising as much as 7% in early trading, the diversified miner ended the day down 0.68%, or 4¢, to $5.88 on news its credit rating was cut to junk by Standard & Poor's because low metal prices will make it harder to fund or refinance its debt.

Financial and energy stocks also dropped, giving up 2.05% and 1.13%, respectively. Light sweet crude oil was slightly lower at US$51.06 a barrel, down US55¢.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

`Ponzimonium' as scams come to light

`Ponzimonium' as scams come to light
Fraudsters being unmasked by soured markets: U.S. regulator
March 21, 2009

BOSTON–Hundreds of people are under investigation for financial scams, many involving Ponzi schemes, a U.S. regulator said, calling the phenomenon "rampant Ponzimonium."

While none are as mammoth as disgraced financier Bernard Madoff's $65 billion (U.S.) fraud, multimillion-dollar "mini Madoffs" are proliferating from New York to Hawaii, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

So far this year, the agency has uncovered 19 Ponzi schemes, which depend on an influx of new capital instead of investment profits to pay existing investors. That compares with just 13 for all of 2008.

"Because of the economy, people are seeking redemptions more than they ever have and that's making a lot of these scams go belly up," Bart Chilton, head of the commodities commission, said in an interview.

In the last month, his agency has pursued investment fraud in Pennsylvania, New York, North Carolina, Iowa, Idaho, Texas and Hawaii.

Chilton called the problem "rampant Ponzimonium" and "Ponzipalooza" – a play on the name of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Many scams are small but grew fast to support lavish lifestyles, like the suspected $40 million, five-year Ponzi scheme that came to light last month when a North Carolina man committed suicide.

Claiming to be an expert mathematician, Bruce Kramer persuaded 79 people to invest in a so-called foreign currency trading operation.

Instead, he funnelled money into a Maserati car, a $1 million horse farm, artwork and "extravagant" parties, according to a complaint.

As the economy soured, Kramer struggled to find new clients to keep the scheme going. In the days before his suicide, his investors demanded their money back and grew suspicious when they couldn't access their own funds, said Chilton.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also faces swelling Ponzi files, including charges Texas billionaire Allen Stanford bilked investors of $8.8 billion.

Reuters News Agency

Bear Rally Ends at 8 Days

Eight is enough

RTGAM




Well, that was a disappointing end to the week. North American indexes flopped in afternoon trading on Friday, capping the winning streak of Canada's benchmark index at eight days and renewing concerns that U.S. indexes are by no means in the clear just yet.


The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 7,278.38, down 122.42 points or 1.7 per cent. Still, for the week, the 30-stock index rose 55 points or 0.8 per cent - marking the second consecutive week of gains. The broader S&P 500 closed at 768.54, down 15.5 points or 2 per cent.


The VIX volatility index, a widely followed index that is seen as a reflection of investor anxiety, rose to 46 - putting it in the middle of its recent range and well above the lows of previous years.


General Motors Corp. rose 10.8 per cent and Ford Motor Co. rose 9.6 per cent on signals from the U.S. government that it won't let the automotive sector fail. As well Merck & Co. Inc. rose 2.6 per cent and Johnson & Johnson rose 3.2 per cent.


However, one of the key sources of the recent rally worked against the market on Friday, when financials switched back into laggard mode after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said that bank failures over the next five years would cost the agency $65-billion - suggesting that the financial sector isn't on safe ground just yet.


Bank of America Corp. fell 10.7 per cent and JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 7.2 per cent. General Electric Co., which tends to move in the same direction as financial stocks, due to its large but troubled financial arm, fell 5.8 per cent.


In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index closed at 8,506.35, down 184.14 points or 2.1 per cent - although it rose 2.4 per cent for the week.


Energy stocks were big drags on the index, a day after they rallied, even though the price of crude oil held steady, at about $52 a barrel. Suncor Energy Inc. fell 7.5 per cent and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. fell 3.7 per cent.


Financials were also weak, following the lead of their U.S. counterparts, with Bank of Nova Scotia down 1.8 per cent and Manulife Financial Corp. down 4.7 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Oil levels off after week of gains

The Associated Press

VIENNA — Oil prices levelled off Friday after the effects of OPEC production cuts and a massive U.S. government buying spree led to a weeklong rally.

Benchmark crude for April delivery fell 55 cents to settle at $51.06 (U.S.) a barrel in light trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The April contract expires Friday and traders shifted their attention to the May contract, which rose three cents to settle at $52.07.

It was the first time crude has ended the week above $50 since last year.

“It really seems like the market is taking a breather after a wild week,” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodity analyst at brokerage OptionsXpress Inc.

 Oil prices rose 11 per cent over the week. Prices spiked after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced plans Wednesday to buy $1.25 trillion of U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Investors pumped money into commodities like oil as the U.S. dollar went into a tailspin.

Also this week, for the first time in months, supply concerns came to the forefront as researchers that monitor seagoing oil tankers said traffic dropped considerably.

Investors since late last summer have brushed off OPEC's plan to slash crude production, focusing instead on the global recession and a massive surplus of crude in U.S. inventories.

But six months after OPEC members agreed to tighten their spigots, analysts said the group has started to balance a plunge in global consumption with supply. Most analysts believe the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut about 80 per cent of the 4.2 million barrels of crude per day that it promised last year.

OPEC ministers said Sunday they would push even harder to make all member states comply with quotas.

Crude prices rose again on Friday as traders learned that two U.S. Navy vessels collided in the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, a crucial passageway for supertankers.

The collision would not block the waterway, but any incident in that area can spook markets.

The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet said the collision occurred at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday between the USS Hartford, a submarine, and the USS New Orleans, an amphibious assault ship.

Fifteen soldiers aboard the Hartford were slightly injured but able to return to duty.

“Whenever we see something going on in that area, we always see an uptick in prices,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy. “It's a very narrow area. It's choked with ships. And it's in a volatile region.”

About 17 million barrels of oil moved through the narrow straight in the first half of last year, roughly 40 per cent of the crude that's traded at sea, according to the Energy Information Administration. At its narrowest, the strait measures 34-kilometres across and forms a bottleneck for ships trying to get in and out of the Persian Gulf.

Also on Friday, analysts with Morgan Stanley said a sharp drop-off in deep water drilling projects could cut crude supplies by another 2.4 million barrels a day in 2011.

Retail gas prices in the United States climbed for the third straight day. Prices at the pump rose overnight to a new national average of $1.942 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Gas is 1.5 cents a gallon cheaper than a month ago and $1.33 a gallon cheaper than it was last year.

In Canada, the price at the pump averaged 88.7 cents Canadian per litre, according to price-watching website GasBuddy.com.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery rose almost 2 cents to settle at $1.457 a gallon. Heating oil also rose 2.7 cents to settle at 1.3834 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery rose 5.3 cents to settle at $4.227 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent prices rose 55 cents to settle at $51.22 on the ICE Futures exchange.

greedy bankers are ugly symptoms of an age of inequality

When wealth became a character flaw

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

As we examine the entrails of Wall Street's still rotting corpse, it doesn't take the gifts of an augur to foretell our postcrash future. It will, at least temporarily, be one of asceticism. Conspicuous consumption is the new smoking. Wealth, and the desire for it, have become character flaws.

The bankers we want to see pilloried, imprisoned or disembowelled — a sentiment whose intensity, judging from the tabloids, appears to be inversely related to our incomes — have outdone themselves in their ability to make us hate them. And they just keep on outdoing themselves, as demonstrated by the $165-million (U.S.) that American International Group Inc., now a ward of the state, just paid out in retention bonuses to many of the same top executives who drove the insurance giant, and the rest of financial system, into the ground.

Even the most measured among us nod at headlines such as: "Not So Fast You Greedy Bastards." This outrage, like this financial crisis, is global. In Britain, it has found its whipping boy in Sir Fred Goodwin, who "retired" at 50 as the head of the Royal Bank of Scotland in November, claiming a full pension worth more than £700,000 a year. This is the same Sir Fred whose disastrous deal-making drove the bank to a £24-billion loss in 2008 — the biggest in British corporate history — forcing Gordon Brown's government to put up billions in bailout money. "Off with his Fred," The Mirror blared.

In Canada, where our banks' legendary lethargy has turned out to be their saving grace, the chief executives at the Big Six had the good sense to voluntarily forgo bonuses for 2008 lest they get us hankering for the return of capital punishment. Perhaps sensing the mob's appetite for blood, they also agreed — not all of them willingly, mind you — to submit executive compensation to non-binding shareholder votes. Giving investors a "say on pay" is, by the standards of Canadian banking, a revolution in itself.

A PRETEXT TO SOAK THE RICH

If U.S. President Barack Obama needed a pretext to soak the rich, the AIG executives and their ilk have certainly given him one. It hardly seems coincidental that such a progressive politician as Mr. Obama was elected on the heels of the most protracted rise in income inequality in the United States since the one that began with the Gilded Age in the late 19th century. That boom ended with the Depression, a cataclysm brought on in part by the same kind of financial speculation that created the current mess. Those who are still wondering why they didn't see this crash coming were probably just not looking at the right data. Instead of wondering whether stocks were overvalued, derivatives were ticking time bombs, or housing was in a bubble, they should have just looked at how skewed income distribution had become.

Just as the New Deal would likely not have been possible without the Depression as its catalyst, Mr. Obama's attack on income inequality would face a much tougher row to hoe were it not for AIG and all it represents. The era that spanned from Franklin Roosevelt to Lyndon Johnson was one of rising real wages that culminated in the most equal distribution of wealth in U.S. history. Is that history about to repeat itself?

"There's nothing wrong with making money, but there is something wrong when we allow the playing field to be tilted so far in the favour of so few," states Mr. Obama's proposed budget, tabled last month. "We need to remember that throughout our history, the United States has grown and prospered when all Americans have shared in the opportunities created by our economy … The past eight years have discredited once and for all the philosophy of trickle-down economics — that tax breaks, income gains and wealth creation among the wealthy will eventually work their way down to the middle class. In its place, we need economic opportunity to trickle up."

Mr. Obama proposes to raise the top two marginal rates on personal income, now 33 per cent and 35 per cent, to 36 per cent and 39.6 per cent, respectively, starting in 2011. The new rates would kick in at a household income of $250,000. The "rich" would also lose their ability to deduct interest on their mortgages. Dividends and capital gains would be taxed at 20 per cent instead of 15 per cent. Mr. Obama would keep the estate tax that the previous Republican administration had proposed to eliminate next year. The Wall Street weekly Barron's called the budget "bad news for investors and affluent individuals." Given the times, it will probably only make Mr. Obama more popular.

Mr. Obama's budget paints an ugly picture of what Ronald Reagan started and George W. Bush finished. Between 1980 and 2004, the portion of national income earned by the top 1 per cent of U. S. households doubled from 10 to 22 per cent. The combined net worth of the top 1 per cent was higher than the total for the bottom 90 per cent. In constant dollars, the average income of the top 400 U.S. taxpayers quadrupled between 1992 and 2004. The middle class in particular lost ground.

Canadians should save their indignation for their own governments. Income inequality, on both a pre- and after-tax basis, actually rose faster in Canada than in the United States in the decade between 1995 and 2005, according to an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development study released in October. The growth differential was considerable in the latter part of the decade, a period characterized by large income-tax cuts by Ottawa and most provinces, declining real welfare benefits and tighter eligibility rules for employment insurance payments.

Still, overall, Canada has a somewhat more equal distribution of income, with a Gini coefficient (a statistical measure of income inequality) of 0.32 compared to 0.38 in the United States. We're not exactly Denmark, which registers a 0.23 on the Gini index. But we have proportionately fewer of the obscenely rich, and outside Alberta, a more progressive tax system.

If the Reagan-Bush tax cuts entrenched income inequality in the United States, how did the rich accumulate so much more pretax income in the first place? Two words: Wall Street. Much of the focus of activist shareholders' and anti-poverty advocates' wrath has been on CEO pay — noting that the average big boss now earns more than 350 times the salary of the average worker, up from 45 times three decades ago. But the real drivers of wealth accumulation in recent years have been the massive bonuses earned in the financial industry, according to a study by two University of Chicago professors, Steven Kaplan and Joshua Rauh.

Forget bank CEOs. Most of them were making whole lot less than the underlings who traded all those newfangled financial instruments. But even they were paupers compared to private-equity and hedge-fund managers, the top 50 of whom earned an average $588-million in 2007, according to the Institute for Policy Studies, a left-leaning U.S. think tank.

The bankers who underwrote subprime mortgages, packaged and peddled asset-backed securities and bought and sold credit default swaps might just be the modern-day incarnation of what the 19th- and early 20th-century economic essayist Thorstein Veblen called the "leisure class." Their "work" consisted of shifting around wealth, rather than creating it, much like the original leveraged buyout barbarians of the 1980s.

Barbarians don't produce anything. They just take things away from others. Then they show off their booty. That makes others envious. So, they try to emulate the barbarians, or at least try to look as rich as they are.

Veblen also reminds us of why any return of the pendulum, characterized by Mr. Obama's redistributive mission, is likely to be just that. Pendulums are always moving. Once the excesses are purged, and the United States feels sufficiently cleansed, the pursuit of happiness — a euphemism for property ownership — will resume. Conspicuous consumption, a term coined by Veblen, is not dead. It's just taking a breather.

"Ownership began and grew into a human institution on grounds unrelated to the subsistence minimum," he wrote. "The dominant incentive was from the outset the invidious distinction attaching to wealth, and, save temporarily and by exception, no other motive has usurped the primacy at any later stage of development."

OUR PREDATORY INSTINCTS

Our urge to keep up with the Joneses is almost primal. "The motive that lies at the root of ownership is emulation," Veblen asserted. "Property set out with being booty held as trophies of a successful raid. … As industrial activity displaced predatory activity, accumulated property more and more replaces trophies of predatory exploit as the conventional exponent of prepotence and success."

We can try to tame our predatory instincts, as Mr. Obama no doubt will do with his tax changes, but it will always be a bit like tilting at windmills. Veblen, who wrote during the Gilded Age, observed that the urge to redistribute wealth is not particularly a human trait. Or, at the very least, it is not a strong enough one to overcome "the desire of every one to excel every one else in the accumulation of goods."

Not me, you say?

Ask yourself that the next time, likely in 2010 or so, that you splurge on a new-generation wafer-thin organic light-emitting diode television, whose million-to-one contrast is wholly undetectable to the human eye. Ask yourself that the next time you salivate over that Miele W2839 washing machine. It's not because it will make your clothes any cleaner.

Mad at the bankers? Don't be. They are us.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Bill taxing AIG bonuses passes

Bill taxing AIG bonuses passes

STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
Thursday, March 19, 2009
WASHINGTON — Acting with lightning speed, the Democratic-led House has approved a bill to slap punishing taxes on big employee bonuses from firms bailed out by taxpayers.

The vote was 328-93.

Said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “We want our money back and we want our money back now for the taxpayers.”

Republicans called it a legally questionable ploy to paper over Obama administration missteps.

Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said the bill was “a political circus” diverting attention from why the administration hadn't done more to block the bonuses before they were paid.

The bonuses, totalling $165-million (U.S.), were paid to employees of troubled insurer American International Group, including to traders in the unit that nearly brought about the company's collapse.

Boomers-With the biggest demographic bulge saying no to stocks, can there possibly be a bull market recovery?

The boomer threat

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Here's something to worry about: Baby Boomers, who have seen their collective savings go nowhere over the past decade thanks to volatility in the stock market, decide that they've had it up to here with stocks and stay out of the market as their retirement nears. With the biggest demographic bulge saying no to stocks, can there possibly be a bull market recovery?

Tobias Levkovich, a Citigroup strategist, addressed this issue in a note to clients this week. He said that boomers did indeed contribute to the bull market that began in the early 1980s, because it was then that they began to sock away money for retirement, putting a lot of it in stocks. And yes, there must be a replacement for them if they exit the market.

Some academics have pointed to foreign investors as possible fill-ins. However, Mr. Levkovich believes that the generation of youngsters born in the 1970s, most of them to boomer parents, could be even better suited.

The population of this generation is almost as large as the baby boomers, and many of them are now entering their prime savings years, ranging between 35 and 39 years of age.

“Most critically, from an investor perspective, this highly innovative generation will enter its savings years in 2012-2013, potentially setting up the next period of savings growth,” he said.

As well, he quibbles with the idea that boomers will give up on stocks in a big way just because it has been a lousy decade for them.

“Keep in mind that baby boomers are living longer and thus may work many more years than their parents did,” he said. “Thus, age 62½ does not mean retirement as it once may have. In addition, they need to see their investments appreciate in price, especially after recent developments, rather than just generate paltry fixed income returns from ‘safe' Treasuries to help sustain themselves for many more years.”

[amp]nbsp;

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

BNK Houses 3:40PM




Wednesday, March 18, 2009

MARKET TALK: Go Long Canadian Lifecos, Short Banks

MARKET TALK: Go Long Canadian Lifecos, Short Banks


10:06 EDT Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Edited by Paul Vigna
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT


10:06 (Dow Jones) Martin Roberge at Dundee Securities has an idea for a pair trade based on valuation: go long Canadian life-insurance companies and short Canadian banks. Lifecos have deeply underperformed banks, he notes, and are trading at a 30% discount on a P/BV basis. Also, in a historic first, lifeco dividend yields are above those of banks. Meanwhile, Canadian banks have rallied back to their 100-day moving average, while lifecos are still 19% below theirs. "If our view of an 'above-average' bear-market rally materializes, lifecos have more room or torque on the upside," he says. (MAG)

9:59 (Dow Jones) BMO Capital Markets starts coverage of Canada's Biovail (BVF) at market perform, saying new management has made "solid progress" in turning the company around. However, the stock is up 70% from its recent lows and a lot of the hard work remains ahead. "Additional licensing should occur, but we need to better recognize the asset and price paid to gain more enthusiasm," firm says. In New York, BVF up 1.3% at $11.98. (AMG)

9:49 (Dow Jones) Eli Lilly's (LLY) anti-clotting drug Effient is on track for a 2Q launch, Citigroup says, and it should command a premium price over Bristol- Myer's (BMY) Plavix due to an apparent lower chance of stent blood clots versus Plavix. Citigroup says Effient's progress is a leading indicator for LLY stock and upgrades it to buy from hold - firm expects Effient to be priced at $5 to $ 5.15/day and to contribute $2B in risk adjusted global sales by 2015. Firm raises LLY's target price to $41 from $36. LLY up 2.3% to $32.47. (EBW)

9:43 (Dow Jones) Meritage (MTH) is well positioned to weather the current downturn and emerge stronger, UBS says, citing liquidity, asset-light operating strategy and geographic exposure, especially in Texas. MTH expects to generate free cash flow this year, enhancing financial flexibility and allowing it to take advantage of the growing number of opportunities to acquire distressed lots at attractive prices. MTH down 2.8% at $11.20. (DWH)

9:39 (Dow Jones) Bringing Sun Microsystems (JAVA) under the IBM umbrella would be a challenge, analyst Shannon Cross of Cross Research says. "Sun is undergoing a significant restructuring and you are going to have to finish that restucturing and then likely do some pretty significant cuts as well," Cross says. She compares the integration of JAVA into IBM to the deal between H-P ( HPQ) and Compaq, in that the JAVA acquisition means meshing many similar product lines, such as servers. JAVA up 64% to $8.16; IBM down 2.2% to $90.84. (JDC)

9:34 (Dow Jones) Merck (MRK) CEO Richard Clark says drug maker hasn't made final decision on what will become of its 50% stake in animal-health joint venture with Sanofi (SNY), in light of planned acquisition of Schering-Plough ( SGP), which has its own animal-health assets. He tells Cowen conference that based on early discussions with SNY, there was "misunderstanding" in recent media report that MRK might sell its stake to SNY. (PDL)

9:31 (Dow Jones) Warren Buffett is "is known for piquant and unsparing criticism of his own performance, as well as the institutional flaws of Wall Street," says New York Times' DealBook. "But on the subject of the conflict of interest built into the rating agencies' business model, Mr. Buffett has been uncharacteristically silent - even though that conflict is especially glaring in his case because one of the companies that Moody's rates is Berkshire." Buffett owns a stake of roughly 20% in Moody's, parent of one of the three rating agencies that grade debt issued by corporations and banks looking to raise money, blog notes. (KNN) (http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/18/buffett- is-unusually-silent-on-rating-agencies/)

9:28 (Dow Jones) Thomas Weisel raises Leap Wireless (LEAP) to overweight from market weight, noting prepaid wireless carriers appear to be prime beneficiaries of the severe economic conditions. Firm says LEAP has forecast continued growth and appears on track with the successful launches in the Chicago and Philadelphia markets. LEAP's flexpay programs exhibit solid prepaid net additions, attracting customers drawn to the affordability of the plans and the short contracts. LEAP up 1% premarket at $35.49. (AMC)

9:22 (Dow Jones) Credit Suisse notes General Mills' (GIS) adjusted 3Q EPS of 79c was below its expectation of 85c and below consensus of 88c. The company raising fiscal-year forecast is a positive sign, firm says, even if it is still below consensus. The company's US retail results were not bad, relative to peers, firm says. The problem, firm says, was in the "volatile" bakeries and foodservice divisions. GIS down 6.9% premarket at $49.95. (AAC)

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http:// www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd=YP4aEomnnr3fVmx9HToUdQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-18-09 1006ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

BNK Houses Weisel Accumulation=$$$4U








Tuesday, March 17, 2009

73 AIG execs received million-dollar bonuses

“These payments were all made to individuals in the subsidiary whose performance led to crushing losses and the near failure of AIG,” Mr. Cuomo wrote. “Thus, last week, AIG made more than 73 millionaires in the unit which lost so much money that it brought the firm to its knees, forcing a taxpayer bailout. Something is deeply wrong with this outcome.”

According to the attorney general's office, the top individual bonus was more than $6.4-million, and the top seven received more than $4-million each.


73 AIG execs received million-dollar bonuses

Print this article
MICHAEL VIRTANEN
Tuesday, March 17, 2009

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York Attorney-General Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday that troubled insurance giant American International Group paid bonuses of $1-million (U.S.) or more to 73 employees, including 11 who no longer work for the company.

Mr. Cuomo subpoenaed information from AIG on Monday to determine whether the payments made over the past weekend constitute fraud under state law. He says contracts written in March 2008 guaranteed employees 100 per cent of their 2007 pay for 2008, regardless of their performance.

President Barack Obama and Washington lawmakers have blasted AIG for paying more than $160-million in bonuses to employees of its Financial Products division, the unit primarily responsible for the meltdown that led to a federal bailout of the company. Mr. Cuomo said AIG mailed the bonus cheques Friday.

The company and some federal regulators have said it was obligated by contract to make the payments, prompting Mr. Cuomo to request copies of the contracts. He said the bonuses might have been fraudulent if AIG officials knew the company couldn't afford them.

“You could argue if the taxpayers didn't bail out AIG, those contracts wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on,” he said Monday.

AIG spokeswoman Christina Pretto said Monday the company was in ongoing contact with Mr. Cuomo's office and would respond to his requests for information and the subpoena. There was no immediate AIG comment following Mr. Cuomo's disclosure Tuesday of the bonus amounts. Mr. Cuomo did not release the names of the recipients.

In a letter Tuesday to Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services, Mr. Cuomo outlined the bonus and contract information and asked the panel to take up the issue at a hearing scheduled for Wednesday.

“These payments were all made to individuals in the subsidiary whose performance led to crushing losses and the near failure of AIG,” Mr. Cuomo wrote. “Thus, last week, AIG made more than 73 millionaires in the unit which lost so much money that it brought the firm to its knees, forcing a taxpayer bailout. Something is deeply wrong with this outcome.”

According to the attorney general's office, the top individual bonus was more than $6.4-million, and the top seven received more than $4-million each.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Thomas Weisel Accumulating BNK-T 96% Buy To 2.00+






Happy St. Patty's Day







“We are becoming our grandparents; we're starting to think in terms of savings,” CIBC World Markets economist Benjamin Tal said. “I think this is going to be a profound change in the way we are viewing the economy and spending.”

There may be a darker side to the steep decline in net worth. Economists fear it could mean the current recession will be longer and deeper than others in recent decades.



From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

OTTAWA — Canadians are retrenching as their net worth erodes rapidly amid the current market turmoil, boosting their savings and growing increasingly conservative with their finances.

Household net worth fell 4.4 per cent in the fourth quarter last year, marking the largest quarterly drop since Statistics Canada began collecting such data in 1990, the agency said Monday. Net worth is a measure of household assets including property and investments versus liabilities such as credit card debt and mortgages.

Canadians have now seen their net worth drop by $14,000 over two consecutive quarters from $179,300 per capita at the end of June to $165,300 by Dec. 31.

Economists say declining wealth is prompting more Canadians to save money, marking a profound shift in the psyche of a generation that has never seen a such major market correction.

“We are becoming our grandparents; we're starting to think in terms of savings,” CIBC World Markets economist Benjamin Tal said. “I think this is going to be a profound change in the way we are viewing the economy and spending.”

There may be a darker side to the steep decline in net worth. Economists fear it could mean the current recession will be longer and deeper than others in recent decades.

The concern is that consumers will hamper growth as they cut spending because of worries about their declining property or investment portfolio values, a phenomenon known as the wealth effect.

From what he calls his position “on the front lines” of the market turmoil, Kurt Rosentreter, a certified financial planner at Manulife Securities, says he is seeing nervous clients take an extremely conservative approach to managing their money because of the declines they've faced in their investment portfolios.

Many are opting to sit on the sidelines and conserve their cash even if the “textbook” approach in a downturn is to buy securities at bargain prices, he said. Most of his clients come to him asking for low-risk savings vehicles.

“When you follow the news and see what your friends are doing and when it becomes the talk of the day at the water cooler, you get scared,” he said.

“The emotional side [overtakes] the textbook analysis, and you say, ‘Right about now, I sleep better at night knowing I bought a GIC or a term deposit or a bond mutual fund.”

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said consumer spending numbers already show Canadians were scaling back their consumption by the fourth quarter of last year, and it is now clear they were reacting quickly to their wealth decline, especially since jobless levels only began to rise sharply in early 2009.

“Clearly, consumers were responding quite quickly to something beyond just what was facing them in terms of their jobs or their mortgage payments,” he said. “They were clearly responding to the hit to their wealth as quickly as the fourth quarter.”

Mr. Porter argues the current downturn could exceed other recent recessions because of the heavier hit to household wealth this time around.

“This downturn will easily rival what we saw in the early 1990s and even potentially the early 1980s because the consumer is taking such a heavy one-two punch from the big losses in employment and an extraordinarily large drop in household wealth,” he said.

The Bank of Canada has also recently begun to signal it is watching the impact of the wealth effect on the economy.

In a March 3 release, the central bank noted that delays in stabilizing the global financial system “along with larger-than-anticipated confidence and wealth effects on domestic demand” now point to a “sharper decline” in Canadian economic activity than initially forecast.

Economists also believe household wealth is likely to decline even further in the first quarter of this year as investors face further stock market declines as well as an accelerating drop in house values.

New data Monday from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed that while the number of existing home sales improved slightly in February, average prices were down 9.2 per cent from the same month last year, with a majority of major markets reporting price declines in the month.

While Canadians' wealth is declining, however, the numbers are dwarfed by the cuts experienced in the United States, where households have faced six consecutive quarters of declines. In the past two quarters of 2008, Americans saw their household net worth drop by $66,000 compared with $14,000 in Canada.

Mr. Tal, meanwhile, said he remains deeply concerned about the increasing debt levels of Canadian consumers, which rose further still in the final quarter of last year. 

Monday, March 16, 2009

Pescod's Views



House Buy And Sells TLM,BNK,OPC,PDP





Warren Buffett settles for $100,000 Salary The level it's been for more than 25 years.

Buffett settles for $100,000
Billionaire's salary static even as his net worth falls
March 14, 2009

Associated Press

NEW YORK–The world's second-richest man, Warren Buffett, wasn't even the highest paid employee at Berkshire Hathaway's 19-person headquarters again last year.

Buffett, chair and chief executive of the Omaha, Neb.-based company, received a total of $175,000 (U.S.) in compensation in 2008, the same amount he received a year earlier, according to a regulatory filing made yesterday.

Berkshire's chief financial officer, Marc Hamburg, earned the highest-paid distinction at company headquarters.

Buffett's base salary remained at $100,000, the level it's been for more than 25 years. He picked up an additional $75,000 for director's fees from some outside companies in which Berkshire has significant investments. That pay did not change from 2007, either.

Buffett, one of the most successful investors in history, has been an outspoken critic of lavish executive compensation packages at other companies. In keeping with that philosophy, his own company doesn't award large pay packages or give out perks or stock options.

While Buffett's pay remained unchanged, his net worth tumbled and he fell from his perch as the world's richest person, according to Forbes magazine.

Forbes valued Buffett's net worth at $37 billion, $25 billion less than a year earlier, when the magazine estimated he was worth $62 billion.

Berkshire Hathaway's profit slid as well in 2008. For the full year, Berkshire's net income fell to $4.99 billion, from $13.21 billion in 2007.

Berkshire owns more than 60 companies, including insurance, furniture, jewellery, and utilities. 

60 Minutes:Recession could end this year: Bernanke


Recession could end this year: Bernanke

March 15, 2009


WASHINGTON–The United States' recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.

In carefully hedged remarks in a taped interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Bernanke seemed to express a bit more optimism that this could be done.

Still, Bernanke stressed – as he did to Congress last month – that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.

"We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely," Bernanke said. "But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not going to see recovery.

"But we do have a plan. We're working on it. And, I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year."

Even if the recession, which began in December 2007, ends this year, the unemployment rate will keep climbing past the current quarter-century high of 8.1 per cent, Bernanke said.

A growing number of economists think the jobless rate will hit 10 per cent by the end of this year.

Asked about the biggest potential dangers now, Bernanke suggested a lack of "political will" to solve the financial crisis.

He said, though, that the United States has averted the risk of plunging into a depression.

"I think we've gotten past that," he said.

It's rare for a sitting Fed chief to grant an interview, whether for broadcast or print. Bernanke said he chose to do so because it's an "extraordinary time" for the country, and it gave him a chance to speak directly to the American public.

Bernanke spoke at a time of rising public anger over financial bailouts using taxpayer money. Battling the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, the government has put hundreds of billions of those dollars at risk to prop up troubled institutions and stabilize the banking system.

Institutions that have been thrown lifelines include American International Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and others.

Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill have questioned the effectiveness of the rescue efforts and have demanded more information about how taxpayers' money is being used.

Bernanke's TV interview seemed to be part of a government public relations offensive. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner appeared on PBS' "The Charlie Rose Show" last week, discussing the financial crisis and the Obama's administration's relief efforts.

The Fed chief on Sunday's broadcast repeated his ire over the AIG bailout, saying that over the past 18 months, that was the case that angered him the most. He recalled "slamming the phone more than a few times on discussing AIG."

The government's four efforts to save the troubled insurance giant total more than US$170 billion. A collapse of AIG would have wreaked havoc on the global economy, the Fed has said.

AIG ignited fresh outrage over the weekend with news that it's making $165 million in bonus payments to executives on Sunday, most of them in the unit that sold risky financial contracts that caused huge losses for AIG.

When the financial crisis intensified last fall, Bernanke and President George W. Bush's Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rushed to Capitol Hill for help. That led to the swift enactment of a $700 billion bailout package in October. Since then, banks have received billions in capital injections in return for government ownership stakes in them.

Looking back, Bernanke said the world came close to a financial meltdown. Asked how close, Bernanke responded: "It was very close."

Bernanke admitted that the Fed could have done a better job of overseeing banks. Critics say lax regulatory oversight contributed to the crisis.

Bernanke said he believes all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent. Big banks won't fail under his watch, Bernanke said – though, if necessary, the government should try to "wind it down in a safe way."

Sunday, March 15, 2009

AIG bonuses spark outrage in Washington

TheStar.com - Business - 


AIG bonuses spark outrage in Washington
March 15, 2009
ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON–Leaders of the White House economic team and the Senate's top Republican bellowed about bonuses at a bailed-out insurance giant and pledged to prevent such payments in the future.

From one Sunday talk show to the next, they tore into the contracts that American International Group asserted had to be honoured, to the tune of about $165 million (U.S.) and payable to executives by Sunday, even as the company has benefited from more than $170 billion in a federal rescue.

AIG has agreed to Obama administration requests to restrain future payments. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pressed the president's case with AIG's chairman, Edward Liddy, last week.

"He stepped in and berated them, got them to reduce the bonuses following every legal means he has to do this," said Austan Goolsbee, staff director of President Barack Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

"I don't know why they would follow a policy that's really not sensible, is obviously going to ignite the ire of millions of people, and we've done exactly what we can do to prevent this kind of thing from happening again," Goolsbee said.

Added Lawrence Summers, Obama's top economic adviser: "The easy thing would be to just say ... off with their heads, violate the contracts. But you have to think about the consequences of breaking contracts for the overall system of law, for the overall financial system."

Summers said Geithner used all his power, "both legal and moral, to reduce the level of these bonus payments."

The Democratic administration's argument about the sanctity of contracts was more than Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky could bear.

"For them to simply sit there and blame it on the previous administration or claim contract – we all know that contracts are valid in this country, but they need to be looked at," McConnell said. "Did they enter into these contracts knowing full well that, as a practical matter, the taxpayers of the United States were going to be reimbursing their employees? Particularly employees who got them into this mess in the first place? I think it's an outrage."

AIG reported this month that it had lost $61.7 billion for the fourth quarter of last year, the largest corporate loss in history.

In a letter to Geithner dated Saturday, Liddy said outside lawyers had informed the company that AIG had contractual obligations to make the bonus payments and could face lawsuits if it did not do so.

Liddy said in his letter that "quite frankly, AIG's hands are tied," although he said that in light of the company's current situation he found it "distasteful and difficult" to recommend going forward with the payments.

Liddy said the company had entered into the bonus agreements in early 2008 before AIG got into severe financial straits and was forced to obtain a government bailout last fall.

The bulk of the payments at issue cover AIG Financial Products, the unit of the company that sold credit default swaps, the risky contracts that caused massive losses for the insurer.

Goolsbee acknowledged the AIG example could make it harder to sell the administration's financial plan to Congress.

"Yes, you worry about that backlash. But you're also angry that this would happen at an institution that has been so troubled and you're trying to save. So I think that's perfectly fair," he said.

Goolsbee appeared on Fox News Sunday, and Summers was on CBS' Face the Nation and ABC's This Week, where McConnell also was interviewed.


Saturday, March 14, 2009

Memo of the week: Bear market bounce

The beginning of the end? Could it be? Sorry, shareholders. No. When the Dow Jones industrial average rose for four consecutive days, world-weary investors pounced optimistically on the rare good news. But their joy at the prospect of a market rally was ephemeral – after analyst after analyst told them this "bear market bounce" would be too. U.S. financial companies, which led the unexpected reprieve, remain dubious to desperate, and economic fundamentals remain poor; the rally, as it were, appeared to be triggered by a "leaked" memo from the chief executive of Citigroup in which he claimed the company made a profit in the first two months of 2009. Not the most solid of foundations on which to base overwhelming confidence. "Before investors truly commit to bank stocks," the Associated Press wrote, "they want official results, not just chief executives' letters to their staff."

– Daniel Dale

Friday, March 13, 2009

Pescod Talks To CEO Bankers Pet. BNK-T


QEC,BNK,TLM Buy And Sells Today







From sizzle to fizzle

From sizzle to fizzle

Friday, March 13, 2009

It was all going so well – until analysts at SunTrust Banks just had to go and bring investors back to reality, arguing that credit card companies will announce delinquencies and defaults next week, renewing concerns that there is another shoe to drop as the U.S. financial sector struggles to find stability.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 35 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 7135 – threatening to cap the index's winning streak at three days. The broader S[amp]amp;P 500 was down 5 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 746.

Financials were the biggest drags, falling 2.6 per cent after turning in double-digit gains during two of the past five days. Industrials fell 1.7 per cent and consumer discretionary stocks fell 0.6 per cent. However, health care stocks remained hot, rising 1.4 per cent, this time with Merck [amp]amp; Co. Inc. in the driver's seat.

In Canada, the S[amp]amp;P/TSX composite index was down 61 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 8221. Information technology stocks were the big laggards, falling 3.5 per cent after analysts at ThinkEquity issued a “sell” recommendation on Research In Motion Ltd., arguing that the stock faces pressures amid growing competition from the likes of Palm Inc.

Financials fell 0.9 per cent after a promising rise at the start of trading. Energy stocks fell 1.6 per cent after early gains in the price of oil evaporated.


© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Bellwether market sectors pass higher lows test


If you Google "Elliott the recognition point" you will find an item asking; "Have you reached the point of recognition?"

According to Elliott wave theory we reach the point of recognition when investors can see that the stock market is moving strongly in one direction, be it up or down.

Elliott wave sets out a bull market structure to be three impulse waves (or up-legs) separated by two corrective waves or down-legs. The recognition point is the peak of the first up-leg advance and when exceeded by the second up-leg advance can introduce a buying panic as the crowd recognizes the new bullish trend

The recognition point is typically flashed about one-third into the second up-leg advance. The last bull market recognition point occurred in May 2003

Let us go back and assume the first bull market advance of the broader North American stock indexes had its origins in the lows of last October-November 2008. Let us now assume the advance from those lows to the peaks of early January 2009 was an Elliott wave 1, or a first up-leg advance.

If so, the corrective period from the January 2009 peak to the lows of March 2009 was the corrective period we needed to introduce a new second up-leg advance.

In a bull market an Elliott wave 3 (or the second up-leg) is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates.

Once we pass the recognition point, prices rise quickly and corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to get in on a pullback will likely miss the boat.

The problem now is to decide if this week's market activity satisfies the origins of an Elliott wave 3 or new second up-leg advance.

Last Tuesday's broad advance in the North American equity markets was technically impressive.

The financials on both sides of the border led the way with the S&P/TSX financial index and the SPDR financial sector jumping 12 per cent and 15 per cent.

Other double-digit gainers were the S&P/TSX diversified metals and mining index, the U.S. REITs and the U.S. broker dealer index.

Notable big-cap winners were General Electric Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Intel Corp. and Research In Motion Ltd., all with double-digit gains.

Our chart this week is that of the daily closes of the TSX composite index spanning the October 2008 to March 2009 trading window.

There are two significant junctures to focus on – the lows of November 2008 and the current lows of March 2009.

Keep in mind that if a new second up-leg advance is to get underway, it should begin from a low equal to or above the important October-November 2008 lows.

Note that while the recent March lows dipped slightly under the November lows, many important stock sectors such as consumer staples, energy and materials posted higher March lows.

In the U.S., important groups such as the SPDR technology and SPDR oil and gas producers also passed the higher low test.

Now refer to the price peak of January 2009; this is the recognition point.

Now in order for us to have an "official" bull market on our hands there is an important test to be satisfied.

The current advance must, within eight weeks, have the legs to carry most of the broader stock indexes above their respective January 2009 price peaks in order to exceed the recognition point.

In 2003 this was accomplished in nine weeks following the March 14, 2003 lows.

This will not be a slam dunk because the TSX must add on another 20 per cent from here and the S&P 500 must rebound 30 per cent

Don't write this off as a pipe dream. During the Barack Obama honeymoon rally of November 2008 through January 2009, the S&P 500 tacked on 27 per cent in eight weeks.

Meet you soon, at the recognition point.

Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst with a Canadian Investment Manager designation. 

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Gas Trend Is Down - Gold Is Up + But Markets Are Up

Markets soar as financial, energy stocks jump

A powerful stock-market buying spree has continued for a third day, yielding triple-digit index gains in Toronto and New York driven by ongoing advances in financial and energy shares.

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index jumped 271.25 points, or 3.4 per cent, to 8,282.207 yesterday – its highest close in three weeks – as six stocks rose for each that fell.

Toronto's key index has rallied 9.5 per cent over the past three sessions and some analysts said that even if it does retreat soon, it will not pierce the more than five-year low it touched late last week.

"So we're fairly close to a top here for the next day or two, but even if we do have a pullback in the next week or so, the lows should be a little higher," said Levente Mady, broker at MF Global Canada, in Vancouver.

The TSX Venture Exchange added 19.52 points to 843.42, while the Canadian dollar advanced 0.43 of a cent (U.S.) to 78.18 cents.

New York's Dow Jones industrial average moved ahead 239.66 points to 7,170.06, netting 9.5 per cent over three days.

The Nasdaq composite index in New York was up 54.46 points to 1,426.1 while the S&P 500 rose 29.38 to 750.74.

The turnaround in sentiment on the banking sector started with reports this week that U.S. financial giants Citigroup and JP Morgan had an operating profit in the first two months of the year.

Yesterday, Bank of America Corp. became the latest U.S. lender to say it started the year with a profit, adding to the market momentum.

Market gains have spread across most sectors, particularly energy as oil prices have firmed above $45 a barrel.

Analysts say the rally has also been fed by short covering, which occurs when investors are forced to buy stock to replace shares they borrowed and then sold on expectations of a decline.

Some say those reasons aren't enough for a sustainable revival in the market.

"Right now I just call this rally speculative," said Jennifer Dowty, portfolio manager at MFC Global Investment Management.

"We're having parabolic moves – stocks are up 8, 9 per cent in one day; I would rather see some stabilization and a slow re-acceleration justified with positive economic data," she said.

Eight of the TSX's 10 sectors ended the session higher, led by a 5.56 per cent rally in the financials index, up almost 21 per cent since Monday's close.

Energy stocks rose 5 per cent as the April crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange moved ahead $4.70 to $47.03 a barrel.

The April bullion contract was up $13.30 to $924 an ounce on the Nymex, and the TSX gold sector rose 3.25 per cent.

Industrials were also supportive and there were small declines in telecom and utilities stocks.

From the Star's wire services






Plus Pescod On Gold




Banks Say- Recession Will Be Long + OPC,TLM-BNK-QEC Houses

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has sharply downgraded its economic forecast for Canada and expects more than 500,000 jobs to disappear by the end of the year compared with the peak of the job market, casting more doubt on the prospects for a painful but short-lived recession.

"There is no doubt that 2009 will go down in the history books as one of the most difficult economic years for Canadians," wrote Beata Caranci, TD's director of economic forecasting.

The bank sees Canada's economy shrinking by 2.4 per cent this year, with the first three quarters in negative territory, before posting sluggish growth of 1.3 per cent in 2010. It had previously forecast a contraction of 1.4 per cent this year and growth of 2.4 per cent in 2010.

That gloomy forecast suggests the recession will be deeper and longer than the Bank of Canada has predicted.

In January, the central bank said real gross domestic product would decline by 1.2 per cent this year and rebound by 3.8 per cent in 2010, a far rosier view than most private-sector economists. But when it cut its key policy rate earlier this month to 0.5 per cent, it noted that the outlook for the global economy had continued to deteriorate, a sign that it may be preparing to lower its forecast.

Caranci emphasized that "this is not a made-in-Canada recession, but the country has certainly imported all the problems surrounding financial market uncertainty, a weakened export market and the plunge in commodity prices that comes with a global recession." As a result, Canada's economy won't recover until conditions in the global economy, particularly in the United States, stabilize, she said.

"We feel that too many issues related to the health of the global financial system remain unresolved for a speedy economy recovery," Caranci added.

Canada's job market will be particularly hard-hit as the recession and plummeting commodity prices eat into national income. The bank expects that 583,000 jobs will be lost by the end of this year compared with the peak of the job market, more than the total employment losses in the recession of the early 1990s. Those losses will push the country's unemployment rate to nearly 10 per cent by the last quarter of 2009, a level that will persist through much of next year, the bank said.

In its forecast, the bank said corporate profits, which dropped sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008, will continue to tumble this year. It also expects nominal gross domestic product, a rough measure of the over-all tax base, to contract by 4.5 per cent in 2009, a factor that will "come to bear on employment, wages, capital investment and government revenues as the year rolls forward."

TD's forecast calls into question the planning assumptions of the federal government, which based its January budget on a more modest drop of 2.7 per cent in nominal GDP this year.

Also yesterday, the Royal Bank of Canada lowered its 2009 economic forecast. It now sees real GDP contracting by 1.4 per cent, compared with its previous forecast for a decline of 0.5 per cent. It maintained its 2010 forecast for growth of 2.6 per cent.

The downgrades came a day after the International Monetary Fund warned that Canada's economic output "is likely to contract significantly in the near term" before recovering as government stimulus starts to gain traction. The international body said that Canada is better positioned than many countries to weather the economic storm, but warned that "downside risks predominate, including negative spillovers if the global environment worsens more than expected."


TLM-T





Stewart, Cramer get ready to rumble

Stewart, Cramer get ready to rumble

Print this article
BARRIE McKENNA
Thursday, March 12, 2009

WASHINGTON — It was a rant worthy of actor Peter Finch's famous "I'm as mad as hell" outburst in the movie Network.

Standing in the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CNBC correspondent Rick Santelli openly mocked "the losers" who can't pay their mortgages and exhorted traders around him to dump on U.S. President Barack Obama's homeowner rescue plan.


It might have ended there. But the theatrics proved too much for late-night comedian Jon Stewart of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, who mocked the ubiquitous cable business network with a clever montage of wildly off-base predictions by some of its leading stars, including high-strung stock picker Jim Cramer.

"If I had only followed CNBC's advice, I'd have a million dollars today," Mr. Stewart deadpanned last week, "provided I'd started with $100-million."

In what is being dubbed the "Anchor War," Mr. Stewart and Mr. Cramer have been going at each other almost daily on their respective networks. And tonight, the two will square off on The Daily Show in what promises to be must-watch late-night TV.

"Two men will enter! Only two men will leave!" previewed the Comedy Central network, which airs the popular satire.

The sometimes nasty and often hilarious feud, dubbed Cramer vs. Not Cramer by The Daily Show, has dredged up long-standing criticism of CNBC, including allegations of excessive cheerleading in good times, scaremongering on the way down, uncritical interviewing of business leaders and the theatrics of its star performers, such as Mr. Cramer, host of Mad Money.

With the stock market in the tank, the blame game has become increasingly political, too. An outspoken critic of the Obama administration, Mr. Cramer has even attracted the ire of White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.

"You can go back and look at any number of statements he's made in the past about the economy and wonder where some of the backup for those are," Mr. Gibbs said.

CNBC spokesman Brian Steel vigorously defended the network's record, pointing out that it typically does 850 interviews a week, from every point of view imaginable.

"Our viewers like a point of view and we do commentary from both sides of every issue," he said, adding, nonetheless, that the network is "unabashedly a pro-capitalist, pro-business network."

He would not comment on which side initiated tonight's appearance on The Daily Show.

All kidding aside, CNBC is serious business. It's the undisputed king of U.S. business news in a crowded cable field. The network is a fixture on trading floors and brokerage offices. When chief executives, politicians and other key decision makers have something to say, they typically go to CNBC first. And the rest of the business crowd, including fund managers and analysts, crave its limelight.

In the other corner is Mr. Stewart, the edgiest of the late-night comics, with a sharp satirist's eye for news and a loyal following among educated young viewers.

His half-hour show, which typically draws four times as many viewers as CNBC's top rated shows, apparently boasts influence of its own. In 2004, Mr. Stewart, a frequent critic of news-as-entertainment, attacked CNN shows such as Crossfire as shout-fests that distort the news. Within months, Crossfire was gone.

So when Mr. Stewart lambasted Mr. Cramer for supposedly touting the merits of investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers not long before they crashed, the former hedge fund manager went on the attack.

 

 

 

In appearances on various NBC news shows, Mr. Cramer accused Mr. Stewart of perpetuating an "urban legend" that he recommended Bear Stearns and accused the show of taking his recommendations out of context. And he portrayed himself as a defender of small investors.

Mr. Stewart was back at it on Tuesday night, poking fun at Mr. Cramer and CNBC parent NBC by using other Viacom properties (Viacom owns Comedy Central) - appearing to talk about his situation on shows from Nickelodeon's Dora the Explorer to MTV's The Hills.

And Mr. Stewart took a swipe at CNBC for promoting their star as if he was the god of stock-picking with its "In Cramer We Trust" ads.

"I don't know about the markets. That's why I don't make claim to any authority," Mr. Stewart told his audience. "Now, of course, I probably wouldn't have a problem with CNBC if Cramer's slogan was 'Cramer: He's Right Sometimes' or 'He's Like a Dartboard That Talks' or 'You Feel Lucky, Punk? Do You?' "

Then, he showed several clips of Mr. Cramer touting Bear Stearns.

"Jim Cramer, you said it here. Buy Bear. [Expletive] you," Mr. Stewart said.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Buy and hold investing guru 34 yr old sells all he has


TOBIN GRIMSHAW/STAR FILE PHOTO
Derek Foster, author of 'Stop Working, Here’s How You Can' and 'Money for Nothing and Your Stocks for Free' holds son Kennedy as he poses with his wife Hyeeun Park and Connery Foster near their home in Wasaga Beach.
'I don't think we're close to bottom'
March 12, 2009

Business Columnist

Thanks to a healthy stock portfolio, Derek Foster retired when he was 34 years old.

He later wrote and self-published three books about buying and holding stocks for the long term.

Despite heavy losses in his retirement portfolio, Foster believed that stock markets would recover soon.

Today, he's more pessimistic.

In early February, he sold everything he owned in his online brokerage account – $472,000 worth of stocks and income trusts – and moved into cash.

"I think we're in for more pain," he says when explaining his abrupt about-face.

"My strategy was to buy quality dividend-paying stocks and hold them through thick and thin.

"I held on all last year, but I've been doing lots of research and I don't think we're close to the bottom yet."

Foster admits he bit the bullet and disposed of some holdings at a loss.

"I bought Rogers at around $40 in the summer and sold it for a little more than $34 last month," he says.

"I bought Algonquin Power (an income trust) at $8 to $9 a share years ago. The distribution was cut and the price fell to under $2.50.

"I bought over 30,000 shares at this price and sold them in early February for $2.68 a share."

What caused his change of heart? Why did the poster boy for holding stocks turn so gloomy?

Foster, an engineer by training, has lived on annual income of about $36,000 from his stocks since he retired four years ago. This will not be a short recession, in his view.

"There is massive debt that has to be repaid and boomers are at the stage where they shift from spending to saving," he says.

"The economy will be very slow for quite some time."

Valuations were lower when the stock markets crashed in the 1930s and later in 1973 to 1974, he points out.

The dividend yield on the Dow Jones industrial average fell to 6 per cent before, but is at 4 per cent today.

The total market value of stocks fell to 50 per cent of the gross domestic product before, but is at 70 per cent today.

The price-to-earnings ratio of stocks fell to the single-digit range before, but is still in double digits now.

Will he go back to work to support his four children and stay-at-home wife?

No way, he swears.

He's selling put options on stocks he'd like to own – essentially, bidding to buy companies as their share price sinks.

This strategy – outlined in his latest book, Money for Nothing and Your Stocks for Free – gives him an extra margin of safety and higher dividend yields because of lower stock prices.

He's not trying to make bets about the stock market's direction, but is just hoping to preserve his nest egg.

"The move into cash saved me a little over $70,000 as of last Monday – though probably less with the rebound in the last two days."

The stock market boom from 2003 to 2008 was overdone, he now admits.

"How can a guy retire at age 34? I'm the biggest contrary indicator. It shouldn't happen that way."

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Pocklington arrested in California




BRENT JANG

Globe and Mail Update

March 11, 2009 at 4:22 PM EDT

Former Edmonton Oilers owner Peter Pocklington has been arrested on bankruptcy fraud charges in California, U.S. court filings show.

Mr. Pocklington will be formally charged Wednesday afternoon with filing false bankruptcy declarations, as well as making false oaths and accounts in bankruptcy.

He faces up to 10 years in a federal prison, U.S. Attorney spokesman Thom Mrozek said in an interview.

FBI agents took Mr. Pocklington, 67, into custody after executing search warrants at his residence in the Palm Springs region.
Peter Pocklington
Related Articles

From the archives

* Peter Puck's last stand
* Alberta targets old adversary
* The lure of the rings

Photogallery

* Items from the Pocklington collection

The Globe and Mail

He filed for personal bankruptcy in California last August, just two days after a raid on his previous residence, initiated by a plaintiff in a civil lawsuit. His net worth is listed in his bankruptcy filing at $2,900 (U.S.) and personal liabilities at $19.7-million.

In his declaration, he submitted that his net worth included $200 in his wallet, a $500 watch, a $500 set of golf clubs, $300 of clothing and shoes, $450 in appliances and furnishings, $450 worth of personal goods seized and $500 worth of memorabilia, trophies and art.

Mr. Mrozek said the discrepancy between the assets and liabilities listed raised concerns that Mr. Pocklington wasn't disclosing all of his assets.

“Court documents also allege that Pocklington, in an effort to partially satisfy a court judgment against him, gave a creditor a piece of art, a rug and a desk that were collectively worth approximately $80,000 and were located in one of his storage lockers,” according to a statement issued by the U.S. Attorney's office.

Mr. Pocklington and his wife, Eva, vacated their exclusive Vintage Club condo in Indian Wells, Calif., last fall. They decided instead to rent half of a bungalow duplex at a golf development, the Lakes Country Club, in nearby Palm Desert.

“The indictment alleges that Pocklington failed to disclose to the bankruptcy court two bank accounts at Palm Desert National Bank [PDNB] for which he has sole signature authority, as well as the contents of the two storage units in Palm Desert. In the seven months immediately preceding a September 2008 hearing in his bankruptcy case, Pocklington allegedly wrote a series of checks on a PDNB account in the name of ‘Dempsey Investment Corp.,' an entity that he failed to mention in the bankruptcy petition,” the U.S. Attorney's office said.

Court filings in a civil case show that a bankruptcy trustee is seeking to recover money from Mr. Pocklington and potentially seize whatever is still in his possession, notably five Stanley Cup rings.

Born in London, Ont., he gained national prominence when he signed Wayne Gretzky, then 17 years old, to the Edmonton Oilers in 1978. The Oilers, in the World Hockey Association at the time, joined the National Hockey League one year later.

But Edmontonians were angered in 1988, when Mr. Pocklington sold Mr. Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings.

Government-owned Alberta Treasury Branches forced Mr. Pocklington to sell the Oilers in 1998, and the rest of his business empire later crumbled.

The Pocklingtons settled year-round in California in 2002.

Mortgage penalty can be a shocker

TheStar.com - Business -

Mortgage penalty can be a shocker
March 11, 2009
Ellen Roseman

As interest rates fall to record lows, you may want to break your mortgage and negotiate a lower rate.

But the penalty charges can be prohibitive if you're in the early years of a long-term mortgage at a fixed rate.

Take Marilyn, who recently sold her house because she couldn't afford to keep it. She had a $308,000 mortgage, with three years left on a five-year term at 5.74 per cent.

She was shocked when told by the bank that the penalty cost would be about $20,000.

"That means I only pay off the bank, the real estate agent and the lawyer," she says.

"I was hoping to have enough cash in my pocket to cover my basic survival needs while searching for my next position."

Another customer, Michael, sold his condo just a year after taking out a $208,000 mortgage at 5.85 per cent.

He was charged $11,000 to break the mortgage, despite having applied for financing on another property he bought.

Both customers assumed they would pay a penalty of three months' interest. That used to be the case many years ago.

Today, most lenders charge a penalty based on the gap between current and past interest rates, the outstanding balance and the number of months left in the mortgage term.

Called the interest rate differential (or IRD), the penalty is higher now than in the past because of how far interest rates have fallen in the past six months.

There's no standard way for lenders to calculate the IRD, says Isabelle Rodrigue, acting team leader of consumer education at the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.

"It's not an easy thing to understand and most people can't do it on their own. We advise them to shop around and talk to lenders about the benefits of renewing early."

If you're faced with a stiff penalty, you may have some leverage by negotiating with other lenders first.

"Then, go back to your current lender and say: `I'm planning to leave. Can you do something about the penalty if I stay?'" says Robert McLister, a mortgage planner with Mortgage Architects, who edits a popular blog, CanadianMortgageTrends.com.

Another tip is to make a lump-sum payment before renegotiating.

Many mortgages allow you to pay up to 20 per cent of the balance in any given year.

This lets you lower the penalty, which is calculated on the balance after you have made your prepayment.

Some mortgage brokers find that people are changing their minds about floating rate mortgages.

"There's a significant trend toward variable-rate clients moving into longer term fixed-rate loans," says Calum Ross, senior vice-president at The Mortgage Centre.

"Yes, they're paying a higher rate. But with the current economic uncertainty, they don't feel comfortable taking on additional risk."

With variable-rate mortgages at 3.3 per cent to 4 per cent and five-year closed mortgages at 4.99 per cent to 5.25 per cent, the price gap has narrowed.

In an influential study in 2001, finance professor Moshe Milevsky said that most of the time, people pay less interest over the long run by choosing a variable-rate mortgage.

But in an interview last month at the Canadian Mortgage Trends blog, he said it pays to be in a fixed-rate mortgage 10 to 12 per cent of the time – and this might be one of those times.

Not only has the premium of fixed rates over variable rates largely disappeared, but there are added risks from falling home prices, reduced availability of credit and employment instability.

An environment like we're seeing today brings into question any type of historical study, Milevsky added.

Ellen Roseman's column appears Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

There is only one question on the minds of investors right now: Will it last?

Market News: After the Bell


The close: What was that?

RTGAM






There is only one question on the minds of investors right now: Will it last?


Investors have seen these sorts of upward moves too many times recently to be convinced that Tuesday's stock market rally was anything but fleeting. Still, there's the hope.


The problem with answering the question is that the yes and no camps make so much sense. Yes, the rally could last because stocks are cheap based on historical comparisons. Then again, history also shows that stocks tend to get even cheaper when they get caught in these sorts of mind-blowing downturns.


Of course, this impressive rally barely registers as an uptick if you look at a stock market graph over the past year. Indeed, the rally merely takes the S&P 500 back to where it was at the end of February (seven whole trading days), and remains down more than 20 per cent for the year.


Still, it's not hard to appreciate the day for what it was. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 6,926.49, up 379.44 points or 5.8 per cent. The broader S&P 500 closed at 719.60, up 43.07 points or 6.4 per cent. It was not only the biggest rally of 2009; it was the biggest since Nov. 24.


The other notable point about this rally is that there was no dip toward the end of the day. For the Dow and the S&P 500, both indexes finished the day at their highest levels.


Financials led the way, after Citigroup Inc.'s chief executive said in a memo to employees that the bank of profitable in the first two months of the year. The bank's shares surged 38.1 per cent and dragged others with it. Bank of America Corp. rose 27.7 per cent. As well, General Electric Co. - which has been hobbled by its financial arm - rose 19.7 per cent.


On the other hand, typically defensive stocks registered far less impressive gains. Procter & Gamble Co. rose 2.2 per cent, Coca-Cola Co. rose 1.1 per cent and McDonald's Corp. rose just 0.5 per cent.


In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index closed at 7,880.41, up 313.47 points or 4.1 per cent - its biggest rally since Nov. 28.


There, the Big Banks were the leaders, following the rally among financials in the United States. Royal Bank of Canada rose 14.4 per cent and Toronto-Dominion Bank rose 11.1 per cent. As well, Manulife Financial Corp. - which has tended lately to over-describe moves in the broader market, on the way up and on the way down - surged 18.3 per cent.


Energy stocks were non-starters after an upward move in the price of crude oil fizzled in afternoon trading, ending the day at $45.71 (U.S.) a barrel, down $1.36. Suncor Energy Inc. rose 0.4 per cent and EnCana Corp. rose 1.2 per cent.


Meanwhile, no one wanted the safety of gold, or gold producers, when stocks turned suddenly hot. Goldcorp Inc. fell 7 per cent and Barrick Gold Corp. fell 8.1 per cent after the price of gold fell below $900 an ounce, down about $22.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

David Pescod speaks

THOUSAND SPLENDID SUNS:

It was over a year ago, we had booked a vacation to
Mexico, so here we are, but the first thing we learned is
that you can’t get away from the market malaise. Go for a
dip in the hot tub and everyone is talking about Japan just
hitting a 26-year low. Go for a walk on the beach and eve-
ryone is talking about, how low can the Dow Jones go. All
of a sudden, people are talking about how lucky people
are with government jobs.


Yes, you can’t get away from it and here in Puerto Val-
larta, real estate for some of the tourist area is down 20%,
vacationing and tourists is down about 20% and you can
tell that the world has changed. Everyone’s question is,
when is it over?
To get away from it all, there is nothing like a good
book and I might be one of the last people that hadn’t read
“A Thousand Splendid Suns” by Khaled Hosseini, the Af-
ghani-American author who also wrote the Kite Runner.
While the Kite Runner might have been a look at Afghan
history through the eyes of men, 

A thousand splendid
suns is a look at the terrible history of Afghanistan
through some of its women and it’s just not a pleasant
story and so many ethnic groups have had a history of
beating up on each other for so long, one just wonders if
there is ever a pleasant exit.
Maybe having an ugly market is bearable in compari-
son to reading through this book. “Men-wielding pick
axes swarmed the dilapidated Kabul Museum and
smashed pre-Islamic statues to rubble—that is those that
hadn’t already been looted by the Mujahideen.

 The Uni-versity was shut down and its students sent home. Paint-
ing were ripped from walls, shredded with blades. Televi-
sion screens were kicked in, books except the Koran were
burned in heaps, the stores that sold them, closed down.”

The poems of Kajlili, Pajwak...and more went up in
smoke...everywhere the beard-patrol roamed the streets in
Toyota trucks on the lookout for clean-shaven faces to
bloody.”

An amazing book and what a sad time for that country

QEC+ BNK + TLM Houses







Monday, March 9, 2009

Brien Lundin says hold Bankers Petroleum

Lundin says hold Bankers Petroleum

2009-03-02 20:45 EST - In the News

Brien Lundin, in the February, 2009, edition of the Gold Newsletter, says hold Bankers Petroleum Ltd., recently 90 cents. Mr. Lundin said buy Bankers in October, 2005, at 56 cents, and in March, 2005, at $1.30. He then said sell -- half, perhaps -- in April, 2005, at $1.80.


 Assuming a $1,000 investment for each of the two buys, selling half of the total $2,000 investment would have yielded a profit of $1,241. He said buy again four times between August, 2005, and June, 2008, at prices ranging from 52 cents to $2.14. 

(The stock consolidated 1:3 on July 30, 2008.) Assuming a $1,000 investment for each postsale buy, and considering the remaining $1,000 investment after the previous half sale, the total $5,000 investment is now worth $1,635. 

Despite a "cratering" market for oil, the company's exit production rate in 2008 was 31 per cent better than its exit rate in 2007 at its Albanian Patos Marinza oil field. The oil field averaged 6,563 barrels of oil per day in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with 5,880 barrels of oil per day in its third quarter of 2008. 

Mr. Lundin says that although oil is not currently trading well, his guess is the oil market will make a substantial recovery sooner than later.

U.S. economy has 'fallen off cliff', Buffett says

MARIO ANZUONI/REUTERS
Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, addresses The Women's Conference 2008 in Long Beach, Calif. in this Oct. 22, 2008 file photo.
March 09, 2009

Reuters

NEW YORK – Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy had "fallen off a cliff" and eventually would recover, although a rebound could rekindle inflation worse than experienced in the late 1970s.

Speaking on CNBC television, the 78-year-old billionaire also said the economy was mere hours away from collapse in September, when credit markets seized up, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc went bankrupt and insurer American International Group Inc got its first bailout. "The world almost did come to a stop," he said.

Buffett also called on banks to "get back to banking" and said an overwhelmingly number would "earn their way out" of the recession, even if stockholders don't go along for the ride.

"A bank that's going to go broke should be allowed to go broke," but customers should not worry about their insured deposits, he said. Buffett said there was a "paralysis of confidence" in banks, which he called "silly" because of safeguards such as deposit insurance.

Buffett spoke nine days after telling shareholders of his Omaha, Nebraska-based insurance and investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc that the economy was in a "shambles" likely to persist beyond 2009.

On Monday, Buffett said the economy was experiencing "close to the worst-case" scenario, with business activity declining and unemployment rising, and that the economy "can't turn around on a dime."

He said Americans, including himself, did not predict the severity of the decline in the housing prices, which then led to problems with securitizations, complex debt and other instruments whose value depended on home prices continuing to rise, or at least not plummet.

"It was like some kids saying the emperor has no clothes, and then after he says that, he says now that the emperor doesn't have any underwear either," Buffett said.

Maintaining his long-term optimism, Buffett said that "five years from now, I can guarantee you that the machine will be running fine," although he hoped it would not take that long.

"We do have the greatest economic machine that man has ever created," he said.

But he said an economic rebound could trigger higher inflation once demand rebounds. "In economics there is no free lunch," he said. "We are going to attempt to have a lunch that to some extent we're going to pay for later."

Buffett also urged Democrats and Republicans in Washington to work better together, and to communicate bipartisan efforts to fix the economy to voters. "You can't expect people to unite behind you if you're trying to jam a whole bunch of things down their throat," he said.

Buffett also said the ailing Citigroup Inc, which Berkshire does not own, would probably keep shrinking, but that depositors should not be worried.


Sunday, March 8, 2009

Stein: Fear-Mongers Keep Us In Recession


(CBS)  Are you up to here with all the grim economic forecasts? Contributor Ben Stein happens to be an economist, among other things, and has the hat to prove it ... 

Okay. Let me put on my weather-beaten economist's hat again and try to explain something important. 

As we all know, we are in a recession that is bad and getting worse. So, basic question: How do we get out of it? 

Well, look at it this way. The economy grows because of two factors: M, which is the quantity of money in the economy, which is controlled mostly by the Federal Reserve; and V, the velocity of money, or the rate at which it changes hands - or, as one might say, the speed with which it is borrowed, invested and spent. 

Mr. Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve, has been doing a fine job of keeping the supply of money pumped up. Score one for him. 

But the velocity of money has slowed dramatically. 

People at every level are afraid to spend because they fear conditions will get worse and they're going to need the money in the future just to survive. So they don't spend it. 

One of the big contributors to fear is the big goombahs in the society saying how bad things are. When Mr. Obama or his economists tell us how terrible things are and how they're going to get worse, they're shooting fear into the economic bloodstream, and that hurts velocity and kills stocks. 

Notice that recently Ben Bernanke said the recession might end this year, and the stock market rocketed up that day. 

What we need, as Bill Clinton aptly pointed out recently, is more cheerleading and less fear-mongering. We elected Mr. Obama to be National Spirit Leader, not National Scary Storyteller. 

If Mr. Obama and Mr. Geithner, his Treasury Secretary, and Mr. Volcker, his well-respected advisor, and some real superstars like Warren Buffett and Jack Welch all came out and said, "The recession will end within 12 months. We are sure of it," the recession WOULD end within 12 months. 

It's all about confidence, and the confidence of the heavy-hitters means a lot. 

After all, no one is bombing our cities right now or poisoning our rivers. This whole thing is about confidence. Ninety-two percent of us are still employed. Roughly 90+ percent are not behind on our mortgages. If we had some confidence, we could get this ball rolling again. 

Let's roll! 

Dec 2008 Ben Said...

Well, look at it this way. The economy grows because of two factors: M, which is the quantity of money in the economy, which is controlled mostly by the Federal Reserve; and V, the velocity of money, or the rate at which it changes hands - or, as one might say, the speed with which it is borrowed, invested and spent.

Mr. Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve, has been doing a fine job of keeping the supply of money pumped up. Score one for him.

But the velocity of money has slowed dramatically.

People at every level are afraid to spend because they fear conditions will get worse and they're going to need the money in the future just to survive. So they don't spend it.

One of the big contributors to fear is the big goombahs in the society saying how bad things are. When Mr. Obama or his economists tell us how terrible things are and how they're going to get worse, they're shooting fear into the economic bloodstream, and that hurts velocity and kills stocks.

Notice that recently Ben Bernanke said the recession might end this year, and the stock market rocketed up that day.

Canada's banks are finally getting some respect.


Canada's banks are finally getting some respect.

Derided for years as meek and mild while banks around the world expanded wildly, suddenly the reputation of Canada's big lenders as prudent and sometimes downright boring has become an asset instead of a liability.

U.S. President Barack Obama has heaped praise on the management of this country's financial system. Ireland is considering overhauling its system to look more like Canada's. Financial papers around the world are running headlines such as “Canada banks prove envy of the world.”
Bay Street

Since the credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, the Big Five banks have booked a total of $18.9-billion in profits.
Royal Bank of Canada

TD Bank

Bank of Nova Scotia

CIBC

Bank of Montreal

Related Articles

Recent

* Don't pass up a good opportunity over dividend jitters

The Globe and Mail

Whether measured by market value, balance sheet strength or profitability, Canada's banks are rising to the top. Since the credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, the Big Five banks have booked a total of $18.9-billion in profits.

In roughly the same period, the five biggest U.S. banks have lost more than $37-billion (U.S.). One, Wachovia Corp., was forced to sell out to avoid failing. Another, Citigroup Inc., long the world's largest bank, may have to be nationalized and this week became a penny stock. The picture is similar in Britain.

The U.S. has spent most of the $700-billion the government earmarked for bank bailouts, and there are estimates that the final tally could be more in the trillions of dollars. The head of the Bank of England said last month that it's “impossible” to know how much money it will take to fix his country's banks.

Canada, by contrast, has not had to inject capital directly into banks, other than starting a program to buy from banks $125-billion (Canadian) of insured mortgages – any losses from which the government was already on the hook for anyway.

The reason comes down to a fundamental conservatism. From lending practices to bets on trading to financial reserves and takeovers, the Big Five banks have long tended to be more careful than their global peers. And when they did want to get aggressive, government and regulators held them in check.

“The Canadian banks were under a significant amount of pressure from both the analysts and the marketplace in general to be more aggressive in expanding into international markets, particularly the United States, and I think to some degree resisted partially because of a more conservative approach,” says RBC chief executive officer Gordon Nixon.

Still, the industry has had stumbles, most notably Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's misadventure in derivatives, which led to a $2.1-billion loss for 2008.

And shareholders in Canadian banks have been battered. As a group, the banks' shares are down almost 50 per cent since Aug. 1, 2007, with most of the decline in the past six months as the economy worsened.

The concern weighing on these bank shares, for starters, is that profit growth in general is a thing of the past until the economy picks up. Most analysts say the banks' profits will shrink in coming quarters as more loans go sour and margins on lending tighten up. There's also nagging doubts that dividend payments are unsustainable and that something bad is still lurking on balance sheets.

More writedowns are likely in store for banks such as Toronto-Dominion Bank and Royal Bank of Canada, both of which made big acquisitions in recent years that now look overpriced.

Still, bank bosses such as Rick Waugh, CEO of Bank of Nova Scotia, say the banks are insulated from lingering problems because they have profits rolling in from many sources.

“We have made mistakes,” he says, “but we made sure that we were well diversified.”

That's a result of a conservatism not just among executives. That same approach extends to consumers, helping the banks sail along on the strength of their domestic lending businesses.

“You've got a more balanced cultural approach towards consumption and savings than we do in this country,” says Charles Dallara, head of the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Much of that stems from the pain of the last recession. While the downturn of the early 1990s was short and sharp in the U.S., it was drawn out in Canada, leading to more of a social evolution, says CIBC chief executive officer Gerry McCaughey.

Former central bank governor David Dodge agrees. Canadian bank executives keenly remember that period, “and there was therefore perhaps a degree of prudence, a lack of aggressiveness, in comparison with major banks around the world,” he said.

And he gives top marks to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada's banking regulator, for being more conservative than those in the U.S. or Britain. “I think that, from a regulatory point of view, you can say that the Canadian banks were more appropriately regulated.”

The final key is the structure of the mortgage market.

While U.S. banks sold a large proportion of their mortgages, Canadian banks held the bulk of theirs on their balance sheets, giving them an incentive to make sure they were good loans. Riskier ones are backed by government insurance. And the law here makes it tough for consumers to walk away from a mortgage because banks can go after other assets.

Still, the banks are wary of getting cocky when a careful approach has worked well.

“It's a good thing for us to recognize the things we do very well, but maybe do it in what is appropriately a Canadian way – with modesty,” said Bank of Montreal CEO Bill Downe.

______

Royal Bank of Canada

First quarter profit: $1.05-billion, down from $1.25-billion.

What's working: The bank's securities arm makes big bucks, and its huge retail bank in Canada generates steady earnings. RBC benefits from strong loan growth and expense control, notes UBS analyst Peter Rozenberg.

What's worrying: A foray into the U.S. leaves it exposed to the sagging American economy. Investors never like to see too much of a bank's earnings come from capital markets, because it's a volatile business. And while the securities division is doing well, it's also booking big writedowns. “RBC's Achilles heel, in Moody's view, is its U.S. operation,” the rating agency says.

What the CEO says: “As a Canadian bank with global operations, RBC does have a competitive advantage relative to many of our global peers. The fundamentals of our domestic economy, while stressed, appear stronger than in Europe and the United States, having benefited from a public policy agenda that for many years valued prudent fiscal management.”

Total assets: $713-billion

Tier 1 capital ratio (Jan. 31): 10.6 per cent

Provision for credit losses: $747-million, up from $293-million

______

Toronto-Dominion Bank

First-quarter profit: $712-million, down from $970-million.

What's working: Retail arm TD Canada Trust is a dominant force across the country. “The bank's sizable capital cushion, combined with the recurring earnings from its Canadian franchise, leave it well positioned to manage through a period of economic headwinds,” says Moody's Investors Service.

What's worrying: TD expanded in the U.S. just as things were getting really bad. Now, the bank has the biggest U.S. retail banking presence of any Canadian bank – half of all the bank's branches are in the U.S. Plus, TD owns a big U.S. wealth management operation that may suffer as markets plunge. The consensus among analysts is that the bank's securities and trading side isn't big enough to make up for declining performance in other areas of the bank.

What the CEO says: “We are living in unprecedented times. So what we consider solid performance in the current environment is certainly not what we would be happy with in the long term. … We are going to take some bruises if the situation gets worse, but we're still going to be able to deliver solid earnings.”

Total assets: $585-billion

Tier 1 capital ratio (Jan. 31): 10.1 per cent

Provision for credit losses: $537-million, up from $255-million

______

Bank of Nova Scotia

First-quarter profit: $842-million, up from $835-million.

What's working: The bank's international business – the largest of the Canadian banks – posted a record quarter, and Scotiabank's reputation for risk management remains intact. The bank's securities and trading arm, Scotia Capital, had a near-record quarter.

What's worrying: Investors are leery of exposure to car loans and the auto industry. They are also keeping an eye on the bank's corporate loan book, the biggest of any Canadian bank.The bank's large international division, with a big presence in Latin America, was much more profitable than anticipated in the latest quarter, but the macro environment in Latin America has deteriorated in recent months, notes RBC Dominion Securities analyst André-Philippe Hardy.

What the CEO says: “The banking sector in Canada is still in good shape. Some say the best in the world. As a group, we are all very well capitalized by global standards. And Scotiabank clearly demonstrated this by the fact that we were able to raise more capital this quarter, all of it from the market, from private sources.”

Total assets : $510-billion

Tier 1 capital ratio at Jan. 31: 9.5 per cent

Provision for credit losses: $281-million, up from $111-million

______

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

First-quarter profit: $147-million, up from a loss of $1.46-billion.

What's working: Most of the big problems relating to exposure to subprime-linked investments are behind the bank, and its balance sheet is rock solid after raising another $1.6-billion of capital this week. Analysts and investors like the fact that its Canadian-focused business means bad U.S. loans aren't a big issue.

What's worrying: The bank is getting out of or cutting back in so many business lines to avoid problems that it's unclear where growth will come from. Investors worry that the bank is becoming so risk-averse that it won't be able to compete.

Its core consumer lending segment saw earnings decline 14 per cent in the latest quarter, due in large part to rising provisions for bad credit card, manufacturing and real estate loans, notes Blackmont Capital analyst Brad Smith.

What the CEO says: “Market conditions worldwide for banks remain difficult. Yet arguably one of the better places to be right now is in Canada. At CIBC, the majority of our revenue is derived from retail markets, where we enjoy strong market positions in a broad range of products and services.”

Total assets: $354-billion

Tier 1 capital ratio at Jan. 31: 9.8 per cent (it's now a whopping 11.5 per cent)

Provision for credit losses: $284-million, up from $172-million

______

Bank of Montreal

First-quarter profit: $225-million, down from $255-million.

What's working: The bank's trading operations are buoying profit, and its retail operations are rebounding after lagging for years. A switch toward more profitable products, such as lines of credit, is helping the core operations churn out strong earnings.

What's worrying: Investors are concerned that trading profits can disappear fast, and the bank has a U.S. loan portfolio by virtue of its presence in the U.S. Midwest. There's also a nagging worry that the bank will cut its dividend that won't go away no matter how many times CEO Bill Downe says the payout is safe.

Credit Suisse analyst James Bantis is watching for rising credit losses in the $42-billion (U.S.) U.S. loan portfolio. He sees a large drop-off in the quality of the U.S. portfolio, which accounts for 27 per cent of BMO's loan book, compared to the Canadian portfolio.

What the CEO says: “Financial institutions everywhere continue to face headwinds in credit markets and the capital markets environment. BMO is well positioned to meet these challenges, having accessed markets to bolster our capital position and having further strengthened our strong liquidity in the period, albeit at a higher cost.”

Tier 1 capital ratio at Jan. 31: 10.21 per cent

Total assets: $443-billion

Provisions for credit losses: $428-million, up from $230-million

Is today's rampant pessimism about the stock market justified?


Although the future looks pretty bleak economically, there are those who aren't passing this opportunity to add some great stock deals to their portfolios
March 08, 2009
DAVID OLIVE
BUSINESS COLUMNIST
Is today's rampant pessimism about the stock market justified?

Of course it is, in the short term. Every day brings news of more layoffs, falling corporate profits, dividend cuts, and, in the U.S. and Europe, government bailouts of financial institutions. It's enough to give the most stoic investor the shivers.

But the long-term outlook – say, the next five to 10 years – is much brighter. And that's the minimum time frame a nest egg-building investor should be concerned with.

Granted, there's no overstating the speed and severity of the current downturn. In just 16 months, the benchmark Dow Jones industrial average has lost a little more than half its value from the all-time peak set in October 2007.

Economic downturns are drearily similar, but each has its unique twist. This time it's the effective failure of the global financial system, which is heavily complicit in the stock market collapse. It has deprived households and businesses of life-sustaining credit. And there is no sign of when banking stability will return.

Making matters worse, stocks were overpriced prior to a market meltdown that has done most of its damage since late last summer, when the magnitude of the banking crisis first became widely apparent. Stocks were more expensive, in fact, than at almost any time over the past century, save the Great Depression and the dot-com and tech bubble of the late 1990s.

Stocks were overvalued because money was so cheap earlier this decade. That drove investors out of fixed-income securities, with their paltry returns. Punters instead crowded into equities, forcing up stock prices to unsustainable levels.

Even blue-chip stocks had lots of room to drop. That they have fallen so hard, so quickly, surprised even Warren Buffett. The world's most successful stockpicker last weekend released his widely read chair's letter to shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. conglomerate. He described a "free fall in business activity ... accelerating at a pace that I have never before witnessed. The U.S. – and much of the world – became trapped in a vicious negative feedback cycle. Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear."

It makes one nostalgic for investors who once advised to "buy on dips." Where are they in our hour of need?

Actually, while thinner on the ground than usual, they're out there. Buffett, who's sticking by his investing adage that "pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy," has been bargain shopping at a rather ferocious pace. He has snapped up stakes in everything from Tiffany & Co. to General Electric Co. (down a stunning 82 per cent from its five-year high).

It's tough to argue with a stockpicker who has suffered just two modest declines in per-share book value since launching Berkshire in 1965. Over 44 years, Berkshire has increased its value by 362,319 per cent, against a 4,276 per cent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500.

If you accept that we are enduring a Wall Street crisis, not a Main Street meltdown, it's easier to feel confident about long-term share values. One could even argue that a resolution to the global banking crisis, given its huge complicity in the current woes, could trigger a surprisingly swift recovery.

In contrast to the overvaluation prior to the market implosion, stocks now are reasonably priced. The 10-year average price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has slid to about 12.3, below its average of 16 over the past century. Warning that the ratio fell as low as six or seven in the super-bear markets of the Great Depression and the 1970s period of stagflation, veteran market analyst David Leonhardt of the New York Times says stocks may continue to drop, perhaps by a considerable amount.

"But long-term investors – and that describes most of us – should start to feel perfectly fine about buying stocks," he wrote earlier this week.

There are other comforters.

With the collapse in stock prices, yields have soared. For blue-chips with a record of maintaining dividends through thick and thin – Bank of Montreal just marked its 180th year of uninterrupted dividend payouts – yields often exceed, say the 4 per cent return on U.S. Treasury bonds. Even after GE slashed its dividend by 68 per cent late last month, its stock still sports a 4.7 per cent yield. Stock in Buffalo-based M&T Bank Corp., a Buffett favourite, yields 8 per cent. So do shares in Caterpillar Inc. Cat is sure to benefit from the coming hike in government-funded infrastructure spending in the U.S. and abroad.

Most blue chips came into this recession with healthier balance sheets than is usually the case. And many have been loading up on cash by slashing expenses to ride out the storm. GE has a $48 billion (U.S.) cash hoard. DuPont Corp., IBM Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., Google Inc. and Apple Inc. also boast swollen treasuries.

For those not yet brave enough to venture into a still uncertain market, there are some firms you might at least not want to part with. Just avert your eyes as they shed a bit more value before a North American economic recovery expected next year at the latest.

At a time when corporate losses or sharp declines in profit appear to be the norm, these 15 companies I arbitrarily selected posted an average increase in profits last year of 27 per cent: Cisco, Loblaw Cos., Bank of Montreal, Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson, Bombardier Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., EnCana Corp., Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., United Technologies Corp., Kraft Foods Inc., Shoppers Drug Mart Corp., CVS Caremark Corp. and Kellogg Co.

As a group, these well-run companies with sectoral dominance – as close as one gets to stocks you can buy and safely neglect – are trading at a whopping 46 per cent average discount to their five-year highs.

And here are 15 masters of top-line growth that have managed to increase sales in each of the past four years: Cisco, Kellogg, Shoppers Drug Mart, Caterpillar, EnCana, Kraft Foods, CVS, Loblaw, GE, P&G, Chevron, J&J, Finning Equipment Inc., Suncor Energy Inc., and PepsiCo Inc. This group trades at an average discount of 51 per cent to the firms' five-year highs.

No responsible investment adviser would counsel you to file your financial statements unopened, as so many of us do. But if Martha Stewart, who knows a thing or two about comebacks, can adopt a casual regard for her net worth in the short term, so might you. She has a business to run.

And you have kids waiting to be read their bedtime stories.


Full disclosure: The writer holds shares in Exxon Mobil.

Friday, March 6, 2009

QEC: spud the St. Edouard #1 well in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec.

Questerre Energy Corporation: St. Edouard #1 Spuds in St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec


00:18 EST Friday, March 06, 2009

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 6, 2009) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION ON U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Questerre Energy Corporation ("Questerre" or the "Company") (TSX:QEC) (OSLO:QEC) reported that the operator, Talisman Energy, has spud the St. Edouard #1 well in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec.

St. Edouard #1 is the fourth well in a four-well farm-in program. The well will test multiple horizons including the Trenton Black-River plus the Utica and Lorraine shale sequences.

Testing operations for several prospective shale intervals are underway on the La Visitation #1 well. Preliminary results are expected in the second quarter of 2009.

Questerre is a Calgary-based independent resource company actively engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of high-impact exploration and development oil and gas projects in Canada.

This news release contains forward-looking information. Implicit in this information are assumptions regarding commodity pricing, production, royalties and expenses, that, although considered reasonable by the Company at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect. These forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results could differ materially as a result of changes in the Company's plans, commodity prices, equipment availability, general economic, market, regulatory and business conditions as well as production, development and operating performance and other risks associated with oil and gas operations. There is no guarantee made by the Company that the actual results achieved will be the same as those forecasted herein.

Barrel of oil equivalent ("boe") amounts may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio has been calculated using a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil and is based on an energy equivalent conversion method application at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent an economic value equivalent at the wellhead.

This news release does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. These securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an available exemption from registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Questerre Energy Corporation
Anela Dido
Investor Relations
(403) 777-1185
(403) 777-1578 (FAX)
Email: info@questerre.com

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Talisman Energy earns $3.51-billion in 2008




Talisman Energy Inc
Symbol TLM
Shares Issued 1,018,770,249
Close 2009-03-04 C$ 11.48
Recent Sedar Documents

Talisman Energy earns $3.51-billion in 2008

2009-03-05 08:45 EST - News Release

David Mann

TALISMAN ENERGY GENERATES A RECORD $6.2 BILLION IN CASH FLOW AND A RECORD $3.5 BILLION IN NET INCOME FOR 2008

Talisman Energy Inc. has released its operating and financial results for 2008. Highlights for the year include:

* Cash flow was a record $6.2-billion, up 42 per cent from a year ago due to higher commodity prices; cash flow in the fourth quarter was $1.6-billion, up 54 per cent from a year earlier, due primarily to realized gains on derivative contracts;
* Net income was $3.5-billion, an increase of 69 per cent from a year earlier, and $1.2-billion for the quarter, almost double a year ago;
* Earnings from continuing operations were $2.5-billion, an increase of 167 per cent. The total for the quarter was $537-million, more than four times higher than the previous year, despite a significant decline in oil prices;
* Production averaged 432,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a decrease of 4 per cent relative to 2007; however, excluding discontinued operations, production was 3 per cent higher than the previous year;
* Net debt at year-end was $3.9-billion, down from $4.3-billion a year earlier;
* Total exploration and development spending was $5.1-billion;
* The company spent $1.8-billion on unconventional programs in North America, adding substantial amounts of acreage and progressing development of the Montney and Marcellus plays;
* Development projects were brought on stream in Southeast Asia (Song Doc, Northern Fields gas), and the Rev Field (Norway) started production in January, 2009;
* The company acquired exploration acreage in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, expanded its exploration holdings in Colombia and entered into two joint study agreements offshore Indonesia;
* Talisman continued to focus its operations, completing sales of 12,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of non-core assets for approximately $1-billion, including properties in Denmark and the Netherlands;
* Yesterday, the company announced it has entered into an agreement to sell non-core assets in southeast Saskatchewan for proceeds of approximately $720-million;
* The company replaced 75 per cent of 2008 production with proved reserves (excluding price-related revisions).

"Two thousand eight was a year of change for Talisman," said John A. Manzoni, president and chief executive officer. "We set the company in a new strategic direction and realigned major parts of the organization in support of the new strategy. We've also successfully navigated a very dynamic economic environment, posting record financial results despite the collapse in oil and natural gas prices in the fourth quarter.

"Talisman paid down a significant amount of long-term debt last year and we are in excellent financial shape. The company entered into a number of derivative contracts last year to protect its capital programs against a drop in prices and this contributed to very strong fourth quarter results. The 2009 capital program has been designed for a volatile and uncertain economic environment and low commodity prices.

"Talisman generated a record $3.5-billion in net income for the year, a 69-per-cent increase over 2007 despite writedowns associated with year-end pricing and reserves. Earnings from continuing operations were $2.5-billion, 167 per cent higher than the prior year.

"Cash flow was $6.2-billion, up 42 per cent year over year, and $1.6-billion in the fourth quarter. Talisman paid down $935-million of long-term debt, net of cash, last year. However, the impact on our year-end numbers was less than this because of the currency effect of the weaker Canadian dollar.

"Production from continuing operations averaged 419,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the year, an increase of 3 per cent, with production gains from Corridor (Indonesia), Tweedsmuir (U.K.) and new wells in North America (Monkman, Foothills, Bigstone). Including assets, which were sold during the year or slated for sale, production was 432,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This was slightly above our last guidance provided at the end of the third quarter.

"Talisman replaced 75 per cent of its production through drilling and non-price revisions last year. The company wrote down 159 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves, almost all in the United Kingdom North Sea, due to low year-end prices. However, using average 2008 prices, these price-related revisions would have been positive instead of negative.

"We replaced 106 per cent of production in North America, with approximately half of our proved reserve additions coming from unconventional drilling programs. Proved reserves in unconventional areas account for about 11 per cent of our North American total, which means there is a lot of running room.

"International reserve additions can be lumpy, depending on both project approvals and drilling results, and this was the case in 2008. For example, we have a number of development projects moving towards approval in Southeast Asia. Talisman's new strategy will improve reserve replacement and finding and development costs over time.

"Since the introduction of the strategy last May, we have made significant progress towards our objectives of profitable long-term growth, high-impact exploration and focusing the portfolio.

"We continued to dispose of non-core assets, selling assets in Denmark, the United Kingdom and Canada last year and completing a sale in the Netherlands early this year. Proceeds totalled $1-billion and the impact on production was 12,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Yesterday, we announced the sale of non-core southeast Saskatchewan properties for approximately $720-million.

"The company is positioned for profitable long-term growth from its unconventional natural gas portfolio in North America and development projects in Southeast Asia and Norway.

"Talisman spent $1.8-billion on its unconventional portfolio last year, adding a significant amount of land. We have moved into development of the Marcellus shale play in Pennsylvania, with excellent drilling results so far. We are moving from piloting to development in our Montney core area and seeing some very encouraging pilot results in the Montney shale play. In Quebec, we will complete our fourth well in the evaluation phase and are excited by the long-term potential.

"Outside of North America, we brought on production from the Northern Fields and Song Doc in Southeast Asia and commissioned Rev in Norway early in 2009. This year, we expect to see first production from the Northern Fields oil development and will progress work on the Yme oil redevelopment in Norway.

"We are also repositioning our international exploration program to focus on larger, material prospects. As an example, last year, the company acquired interests in two blocks in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. This is a region with world-scale, unexplored oil opportunities.

"Talisman also added to its offshore exploration portfolio in Southeast Asia and continued the appraisal of oil discoveries in Vietnam. In South America, we added additional acreage in Colombia and have started evaluating our light oil discovery in Peru.

"We have made a lot of progress towards implementing the strategy in a short period of time. Talisman is in a strong financial position and can react quickly in this volatile environment. We have set our plans for the year to be robust to low commodity prices, while still investing into our strategic priorities. We will remain flexible through the year and we are confident that our new strategic direction will result in sustainable and profitable growth into the longer term."

Financial results

Talisman plans to file its audited financial statements for the year ended Dec. 31, 2008, along with the related management's discussion and analysis, with Canadian and United States securities authorities on March 5, 2009. The company will file its annual information form and annual report on Form 40-F on March 9, 2009.

Cash flow for 2008 was $6.2-billion, up 42 per cent from a year earlier. This was primarily due to higher average commodity prices and a $365-million aftertax cash gain on held-for-trading commodity derivatives. Cash flow from continuing operations was $6-billion. Despite falling commodity prices in the fourth quarter, cash flow from continuing operations increased 54 per cent to $1,530-million compared with a year ago, with a realized aftertax cash gain of $461-million on derivative contracts.

Net income was also a record $3.5-billion, an increase of 69 per cent from a year earlier, reflecting a $1.2-billion aftertax gain on held-for-trading commodity derivative contracts and higher commodity prices.

Total depreciation, depletion and amortization expense was almost $3-billion for the year, an increase of $800-million compared with 2007. Of this increase, $585-million (73 per cent) was the result of writing down proved reserves due to low year-end prices. These writedowns had a $225-million aftertax impact on net income.

Earnings from continuing operations were $2.5-billion, versus $952-million last year, primarily the result of higher commodity prices and higher production volumes. However, these were offset by increased operating expenses and higher depletion, depreciation and amortizatio. Earnings from continuing operations adjust for significant one-time events and non-operational items such as the mark-to-market effect of changes in share prices on stock-based compensation expense, unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses on commodity derivatives, changes to tax rates, and additional depletion, depreciation and amortization related to properties that had no proved reserves at year-end prices. The company strengthened its balance sheet, reducing net debt to $3.9-billion, down from $4.3-billion in 2007, principally due to cash flow in excess of capital expenditures. In total, the company repaid $935-million of long-term debt net of cash, which was partially offset by a $581-million currency translation effect.

Talisman spent a record $5.1-billion on exploration and development in 2008, an increase from the $4.4-billion capital budget in 2007. North America accounted for 48 per cent of spending, North Sea development 25 per cent, Southeast Asia development 9 per cent and international exploration was 17 per cent.

Production from continuing operations averaged 419,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 3 per cent above 2007, in part due to increased production at Tweedsmuir (U.K.), Corridor (Indonesia) and first gas from the Northern Fields development in Malaysia/Vietnam. Total production for the year was down 4 per cent to 432,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, as a result of asset sales, as well as maintenance at the PM-3 CAA field.

In 2008, the company's average netback was $47.33 per barrel of oil equivalent per day, 30 per cent higher than 2007, with the effect of higher commodity prices partially offset by increases in royalties and operating costs.

As discussed previously, commodity prices were extremely volatile in 2008 and both oil and natural gas prices fell significantly in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter netbacks were down 34 per cent from the same quarter last year, averaging $25.98 per barrel of oil equivalent per day, 54 per cent below the third quarter of 2008.

Higher average prices translated into a higher corporate royalty expense of $2,091-million, a 34-per-cent increase over 2007. The company's average royalty expense remained relatively unchanged at 18 per cent.

Unit operating costs increased 12 per cent to $13.57 per barrel of oil equivalent per day over the previous year. Unit operating costs in North America rose by 14 per cent due to increased processing fees and maintenance costs. Pricing pressure in the United Kingdom resulted in unit costs increasing 21 per cent as the cost of labour, fuel, repairs and well operations rose with commodity prices. In Scandinavia, increased production volumes resulted in a 9-per-cent reduction in unit operating expenses.

The company may choose to designate derivative instruments as hedges for accounting purposes. To date, the company has elected not to designate any commodity price derivative contracts entered into since Jan. 1, 2007, as hedges.

The company added 118 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved gross reserves last year through drilling and positive revisions (non-price), replacing the equivalent of 75 per cent of annual production.

Under existing SEC rules, the company wrote down 159 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved gross reserves, almost all of which were in the U.K. North Sea, due to low year-end prices. The SEC has announced new reserves disclosure requirements, including an average annual pricing methodology, which is expected to be applied to 2009 year-end reports. Using average 2008 prices, the effect on Talisman would have been the addition of 19 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved gross reserves, rather than writing off 159 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Using year-end pricing, Talisman's proved gross reserves totalled 1,434 million barrels of oil equivalent, down 14 per cent from a year earlier. Using average 2008 prices, proved gross reserves were down 3 per cent to 1,612 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Drilling results in North America were encouraging. The company replaced 106 per cent of production with proved gross reserves through drilling. About half of Talisman's proved North American reserve additions came from unconventional areas. At year-end, proved gross unconventional reserves in new areas accounted for only about 11 per cent of the company's total in North America.

International reserve additions can be highly variable because they depend on development approval before discoveries can be moved to the proved reserves category. Development plans are under way for a number of Talisman projects, including offshore development in Vietnam and expansion of the Corridor gas project in Indonesia.

The new strategy, with the emphasis on unconventional gas in North America, low-cost, long-life reserves in Southeast Asia and the addition of new core areas from high-impact exploration, is expected to improve Talisman's reserve replacement ratios and finding and development costs in the future.

North America

Talisman has identified significant potential within its unconventional North American landholdings and has targeted this part of its portfolio for long-term growth. In 2008, the company focused on piloting and started development on a number of new unconventional plays.

Production from continuing operations averaged approximately 1.1 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2008, a 4-per-cent increase over 2007. Natural gas production from continuing operations averaged 838 million cubic feet per day, with increases in the Northern Foothills, Monkman and Bigstone/Wild River areas.

Talisman spent $1.8-billion on unconventional natural gas programs in North America, including land, development, infrastructure and drilling. The company drilled 169 gross wells on its new unconventional areas. Talisman also added significantly to its unconventional land base in 2008 (320,000 net acres added in new areas) bringing total unconventional holdings to three million net acres.

In New York and Pennsylvania, Talisman holds 800,000 net acres. During the year, the company shifted its focus toward Pennsylvania from New York, where pilot programs have been delayed due to regulatory and environmental reviews. In Pennsylvania, Talisman has 140,000 net acres of undeveloped land, including the addition of highly prospective state land last year. The 2008 pilot program consisted of one operated rig with a total of six gross wells (five net) drilled.

Results of the Pennsylvania pilot program have been encouraging, with recent production rates upward of 3.5 million cubic feet per day per well. Based on this early success, Talisman is preparing to move to development in Pennsylvania by mid-2009, with plans to drill 36 gross horizontal wells. The company currently has two rigs drilling, with plans for up to five rigs by the third quarter.

Talisman continued to expand its Montney land base in British Columbia and Alberta in 2008, which now totals 600,000 net acres (380,000 Montney core, 220,000 Montney shale). The region has numerous opportunities at different stages of maturity and Talisman made significant progress in its piloting programs in preparation for development in 2009.

Within the Montney core, the company completed 39 gross (31.1 net) development wells in 2008 in addition to 13 gross pilot wells to test drilling, completion techniques and the quality of the reservoir. Initial production rates have been encouraging, ranging from 1.6 million cubic feet per day to 3.6 million cubic feet per day (sales gas) per well. Talisman expects to drill 35 gross (26 net) wells in 2009, with a focus on horizontal wells from pad locations to reduce costs and improve efficiencies.

The company started pilot operations in the Montney shale area of northeastern British Columbia in mid-2008, drilling nine gross (3.2 net) wells last year. At Farrell Creek, the company successfully tested a vertical well with rates up to five million cubic feet per day (raw gas). A total of 14 gross pilot wells are planned in the Montney shale in 2009, in addition to construction of processing facilities.

The company has the ability to accelerate drilling, depending upon economic conditions and drilling results in both the Marcellus and Montney plays.

Talisman is continuing its pilot program in Quebec where the company holds rights to 770,000 net acres. In September, the company completed a successful test well from the Utica shale in the Gentilly well. This well flowed at 800,000 cubic feet per day (raw gas) from one completed interval during the test period. Talisman expects to complete the earning phase of its drilling program in Quebec in 2009.

In the Bakken core, Talisman drilled 43 gross (36 net) wells, achieving top-tier performance in drilling costs and production rates. However, the company has decided to exit southeast Saskatchewan to focus on more material assets in North America. Yesterday, Talisman entered into an agreement to sell these assets for proceeds of approximately $720-million. Current production is approximately 8,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (net).

In the Outer Foothills, Talisman was successful at Hinton and Ojay. In total, 21 gross (15.8 net) wells were drilled and Talisman now holds 430,000 net acres in the area with the addition of new land in the Hinton area.

Production from Talisman's conventional areas was 730 million cubic feet equivalent per day. In total, 129 gross (74.3 net) wells were drilled in 2008, with excellent results in the Foothills and at Monkman.

Talisman's midstream operations averaged throughput of 635 million cubic feet per day. The company will use its expertise in infrastructure development to support its unconventional natural gas programs. In line with the objective to focus operations and exit non-strategic areas, Talisman completed the sale of its Lac La Biche assets for proceeds of $247-million.

United Kingdom

Talisman is repositioning its high-quality U.K. assets as a source of free cash flow from a sustainable long-term production base. Production from continuing operations in the United Kingdom averaged 95,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day, relatively unchanged from 2007.

Production increases from drilling and development projects, including Tweedsmuir and Blane (on stream in 2007), offset natural declines and maintenance shutdowns at Monarb and Claymore. At Tweedsmuir, production averaged 22,459 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The company progressed the Burghley and Auk North subsea developments and has started engineering work for the Auk South redevelopment project.

Talisman completed the sale of the Beatrice oil field licence interests in 2008. In January, 2009, the company also completed the sale of its assets in the Netherlands, with proceeds of approximately $600-million.

Scandinavia

Norway is seen as an area of growth from continuing development projects in the short-term and exploration activity in the long-term. Production from continuing operations in Scandinavia averaged 34,866 barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2008, a 15-per-cent increase from 2007, mainly due to increased production from new wells at Varg and Brage and a full year of production at Blane.

In the Southern North Sea area, including the Blane and Gyda fields, Talisman drilled two development wells and one exploration well. The long-reach development well at Gyda had an initial gross production rate of 3,500 barrels per day. Production from the Southern North Sea area averaged 11,437 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

In the Mid North Sea area, the Rev field commenced production in January, 2009. The field is expected to produce at a rate of approximately 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to Talisman from two subsea wells. A third producer, the Rev East well, is expected to be brought on stream later in 2009. Talisman also drilled seven development wells in the Mid North Sea area in 2008.

Development of the Yme field in the Norwegian continental shelf continued throughout 2008 and seven development wells are planned at Yme for 2009.

Talisman sold its producing interests in Denmark in 2008. In February, 2009, Talisman entered into an agreement to sell a 10-per-cent interest in the Yme field.

Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is a low-cost area with opportunities for sustainable long-term growth. Production from continuing operations in Southeast Asia averaged 91,363 barrels of oil equivalent per day, approximately the same as in 2007. Production increases came from first gas production from Northern Fields, the start-up of the Song Doc field and additional Corridor sales in Indonesia, which were largely offset by natural declines in Malaysia.

Talisman's interests in block PM-3 CAA offshore Malaysia/Vietnam are split between the Southern Fields and the Northern Fields. In the Southern Fields, compression upgrades on the Bunga Raya platform were fully commissioned in 2008, adding 17 million cubic feet per day of gross sales gas.

Following successful platform installations and drilling 19 development wells, first gas from the Northern Fields commenced on schedule in July, 2008, at 30 million cubic feet per day net sales gas. Oil production is expected from Northern Fields toward the end of the first quarter of 2009 and dry gas is expected in mid-2009.

In January, 2008, Talisman announced its second oil discovery offshore Vietnam at Hai Su Den in block 15-2/01, following up on the Hai Su Trang discovery in 2007. Development sanction for the Hai Su Trang field and for the Hai Su Den early production scheme is expected in 2009, with first production anticipated in 2012.

In late November, 2008, oil production commenced at the Song Doc field in block 46/02. Gross production from five predrilled wells is expected to reach approximately 20,000 barrels per day in early 2009. An additional three development wells are currently being drilled.

In Indonesia, natural gas production increased by 16 per cent to 266 million cubic feet per day, mainly due to the West Java pipeline being on stream for the entire year.

Other areas

In Talisman's other areas, production from continuing operations during the year averaged 16,031 barrels per day, an increase of 12 per cent over 2007. In Algeria, production averaged 15,100 barrels per day, up from 13,200 barrels per day.

In line with its strategy to focus on core assets, Talisman has announced the intention to sell its assets in Trinidad and Tobago.

International exploration

Southeast Asia

In September, 2008, Talisman entered into a farm-in agreement in blocks 133 and blocks 134 offshore Vietnam with a 38-per-cent working interest. This agreement was approved by the Vietnamese government in February, 2009, and represents the company's first step into the Nam Con Son basin.

In July, 2008, Talisman was awarded 100-per-cent and 60-per-cent interests in two joint study agreements in the Makassar Strait, offshore Indonesia. The company is currently evaluating the blocks and recently completed the seismic across both blocks. Talisman can elect to include these blocks in a future bid round.

In early 2008, Talisman participated in the successful Kitan-1 exploration well in PSC 06-105 offshore Australia resulting in an oil discovery, which tested at 6,100 barrels per day. A subsequent appraisal well delineated the discovery. A field development plan is currently being prepared and is scheduled to be submitted later in the year.

North Sea

In the United Kingdom, Talisman added to its acreage position in the Central Graben area of the North Sea with three blocks awarded in the 25th licensing round. In addition, the company participated in the APA 2008 bid round in Norway, with two licences awarded in February, 2009. Talisman also submitted a bid in the 20th licence round in Norway for blocks in the Barents Sea and expects the results in spring of 2009.

In Norway, Talisman drilled one successful well in the Southern North Sea area.

South America

Talisman has built a significant presence in Peru and now has interests in four blocks covering 4.5 million net acres. In 2008, the company began evaluating an earlier Talisman discovery at Situche on block 64 and expects to complete drilling of the well in 2009.

In Colombia, Talisman has added sizable amounts of acreage. The company now has interests in 11 blocks covering approximately five million net acres. Talisman plans to complete drilling of the Huron exploration well in 2009.

Kurdistan region of northern Iraq

In 2008, Talisman entered into an agreement with the Kurdistan regional government within northern Iraq for interests in block K44 and K39. The company has acquired seismic across block K39 in order to define drilling prospects for future drilling consideration. The Sarqala-1 well on block K44 was drilling over the year-end, with a second well planned for later in 2009.

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
(in millions of dollars, except per-share amounts)

For the three months For the year
ended Dec. 31, ended Dec. 31,
2008 2007 2008 2007
Revenue

Gross sales $ 2,200 $ 2,393 $ 11,779 $ 8,861
Hedging gain/(loss) - 3 (28) 104
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Gross sales, net of hedging 2,200 2,396 11,751 8,965
Less royalties 380 440 2,091 1,558
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Net sales 1,820 1,956 9,660 7,407
Other 33 37 146 145
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Total revenue 1,853 1,993 9,806 7,552
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Expenses

Operating 538 502 2,025 1,854
Transportation 44 48 208 205
General and administrative 98 57 295 223
Depreciation, depletion and
amortization 1,207 544 2,979 2,177
Dry hole 220 298 492 607
Exploration 158 91 431 315
Interest on long-term debt 43 55 168 207
Stock-based compensation
(recovery) (36) (53) (73) (15)
Gain)/loss on held-for-trading
financial instruments (1,695) 41 (1,664) 25
Other, net (52) 55 (183) 34
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Total expenses 525 1,638 4,678 5,632
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Income from continuing operations
before taxes 1,328 355 5,128 1,920
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Taxes

Current income tax 277 236 1,497 700
Future income tax (162) (238) 119 (58)
Petroleum revenue tax 16 60 176 258
--------- --------- --------- ---------
131 58 1,792 900
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Net income from continuing
operations 1,197 297 3,336 1,020
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Net income from discontinued
operations 5 359 183 1,058
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Net income 1,202 656 3,519 2,078
========= ========= ========= =========
Per common share

Net income from continuing
operations 1.18 0.29 3.28 0.99
Diluted net income from
continuing operations 1.17 0.29 3.23 0.97
Net income from discontinued
operations - 0.35 0.18 1.02
Diluted net income from
discontinued operations - 0.34 0.17 1.00
Net income 1.18 0.64 3.46 2.01
Diluted net income 1.17 0.63 3.40 1.97

We seek Safe Harbor.

Canadian Arrow announces extension of loan

Canadian Arrow announces extension of loan


07:30 EST Thursday, March 05, 2009

SUDBURY, ON, March 5 /CNW/ - Canadian Arrow Mines, Ltd. (CRO: TSX-V) (the "Company"), is pleased to announce that it has reached an agreement with an arms-length third party lender to extend the term of its $1,500,000 loan to January 31, 2011.

The loan which was announced by press release on May 26, 2008 is secured by a charge against all of the Company's assets, bears interest at a variable rate per annum equal to prime plus 2% calculated daily and compounded monthly and matures on the earlier of (i) the date on which an event of default occurs under the loan or the security, (ii) the date on which Canadian Arrow completes any equity or debt financing after the date hereof for net proceeds of at least $5,000,000, and (iii) January 31, 2011.

In connection with the extension, the Company also agreed that the lender would have an option to have all or a portion of the loan repaid in common shares of the Company any time after the completion of an equity financing by the Company, with the deemed issue price of such shares being equal to the issue price under the financing. Furthermore, the Company was provided with an option of repaying the loan through the transfer of an interest in its Kenbridge property.

The revised note as well as the ability to repay in either common shares of the Company or the transfer of the property interest will be subject to the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals including the TSX Venture Exchange.

Investors are invited to visit Canadian Arrow's IR hub at http://www.agoracom/IR/CanadianArrow where they can post questions and receive answers within the same day, or simply review questions and answers posted by other investors. Alternately, investors are able to e-mail all questions and correspondence to CRO@agoracom.com where they can also request addition to the investor e-mail list to receive future press releases and updates in real time.

Take it to the bank: A new bull market is here


Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst.

As of mid-week our new bull market seems to be alive and well after passing some important stress tests. I know this doesn't feel like a new bull but that is quite normal because new bulls are always accompanied by fear and loathing.

Why a new bull market?

Because bear markets usually trade to new lows about every 12 to 18 weeks in a series of lower highs and lower lows. We technicians call that a down trend.

In the U.S., as of mid-week, only three of the 10 Standard & Poor's stock sectors have violated their 2008 October through November lows of more than 20 weeks ago and so far, the large cap benchmark S&P 500 and the small cap Russell 2000 have not violated their 2008 October through November lows.

In our local market the TSX composite, the TSX mid cap and the TSX small-cap indexes have all held at or above their 2008 October through November lows.

At this time the only technical argument the bears can table is the new lows posted by the Canadian and U.S. financial sectors. There is no doubt that if we have a new bull we need the participation of the financials and we need it now.

This observation creates a money management problem in that we need to manage risk exposure by the careful selection of non-correlated stock groups or sectors

My best low-risk returns tend to occur when I take large positions in the early stages of a rising stock sector and hold for about six to nine months. When this position is sold the proceeds are "rotated" into a new and different emerging stock sector.

At this time to two stock sectors with the greatest inverse correlation are the gold stocks and the financial stocks. It could be the next big trade would be to get the timing right on the switch from those hot gold stocks into those cold bank stocks.

Believe it or not, there is growing evidence that reducing exposure to some of the gold stocks and increasing exposure to some of the financial stocks may be a prudent decision.

Technically, at mid-week, many gold stocks over extended on the upside and many financial stocks over extended on the downside. For example, Eldorado Gold (TSX-ELD) is sitting about 35 per cent above its 200-day moving average and Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS) is sitting about 35 per cent below its 200-day moving average.

These are at historical extremes.

As an Eldorado shareholder I did not welcome the Feb. 23, 2009 news that Eldorado Gold was intending to raise approximately $275 million through a public offering of common shares. The offering was cancelled the next day but the damage was done. If the management thinks the time is right to sell maybe I should also be a seller.

Now, let's consider a bullish case for the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Most investors know that the TSX financial group has lost about 55 per cent in value since its price peak in May 2007. Over the same period the U.S. SPDR financial sector has lost a stunning 80 per cent of its value.

CNBC host Jim Cramer claims that the UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (NYSE-SKF) is the culprit. The fund is supposed to be a play on the financials' decline. As the Dow Jones U.S. financials index goes down, the two-times levered SKF shares go up. Cramer argues that what this ultra-short fund really offers is the chance to sidestep the SEC's margin restrictions.

Short sellers are now double the threat they once were, and their exchange-traded fund-enabled positions are hammering down the financials, hurting common-stock shareholders and the markets as a result. In Cramer's words, "it is a manipulator's dream come true."

On the flip side, any recovery in the U.S. financials could trigger a bearish stampede out of the SKF resulting in a stunning rally in the North American financial stocks.

Our chart this week is that of the daily closes of the Bank of Nova Scotia plotted above the daily closes of Eldorado Gold. The inverse correlation is obvious.

Some exposure to both stocks would be a prudent way to reduce the volatility in your portfolio.

 

Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst.

 

Talisman Energy Inc. Earns Net 1.2 Billion Dollars

The Canadian Press

March 5, 2009 at 6:23 AM EST

CALGARY — — Talisman Energy Inc. [TLM-T] said Thursday it managed to book strong profits for both the final quarter and full fiscal year of 2008, despite plunging commodity prices that marked the final months of the year.

The Calgary-based oil and gas company reported net earnings of $1.2-billion, or $1.18 per share, for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2008, up sharply from a year-earlier profit of $656-million, or 64 cents per share.

Talisman's quarterly cash flow jumped to $1.6-billion from $1-billion reported during the same period in 2007.

The increases came despite a drop in oil and gas production, which fell to an average of 432,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from the 446,000 barrels being produced a year earlier.
Talisman Energy

Related Articles

Recent

* Talisman sells Bakken assets for $720-million

The Globe and Mail

Talisman said it benefited from the high oil prices that prevailed throughout much of the year, reporting a 69 per cent surge in 2008 profit to $3.5-billion, or $3.46 per share, from year-earlier net earnings of $2-billion, or $2.01 per share.

The company said oil and gas prices, coupled with a $365-million gain on commodity derivatives, helped push full-year cash flow up to $6.2-billion from $4.3-billion reported the year before.

Average production fell to 432,000 barrels a day from a 2007 average of 452,000 barrels.

Talisman also said it paid down $935-million in long-term debt for the year, bringing net debt down to $3.9-billion.

“2008 was a year of change for Talisman,” chief executive John Manzoni said in a statement.

“We set the company in a new strategic direction and realigned major parts of the organization in support of the new strategy. We've also successfully navigated a very dynamic economic environment, posting record financial results despite the collapse in oil and natural gas prices in the fourth quarter.”

Talisman, a Calgary-based energy company with operations around the world, has been paring down its portfolio in order to focus on a few key strategic areas: the U.K. North Sea, North American unconventional natural gas and Southeast Asia.

On Wednesday Talisman announced a $720-million deal to sell assets in Saskatchewan's Bakken oil play to Tristar Oil and Gas Ltd. and Crescent Point Energy Trust.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

What Will Markets Do Today???

Help from Asia

RTGAM






Another day, another attempt by stock markets to break out of their demoralizing losing streak, which has sent major U.S. indexes to 12 year lows amid an unending stream of bleak economic news, bankruptcies and slashed dividends.


Unfortunately, the news wasn't a whole lot brighter on Wednesday morning. The ADP employment report for private payrolls showed that U.S. employers cut their payrolls by 697,000 in February, considerably worse than the 630,000 job cuts that economists had expected. The reports are a prelude to the official numbers, to be released on Friday.


"Every indicator we know tells us that employment is tanking right across the economy, and we doubt any of the numbers have hit bottom yet," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, in a note.


Despite the gloomy employment picture, U.S. stock index futures were higher with about an hour before markets open, suggesting that stocks will rise at the start of trading - part of a global bounce that is being attributed to talk of big new stimulus measures in China, where the government has already pledged $585-billion (U.S.) in spending.


Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average rose 91 points, to 6760. Futures for the broader S&P 500 rose 10 points, to 700.


In Europe, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 was up 1.5 per cent and Germany's DAX index was up 2.6 per cent. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9 per cent and China's Shanghai stock exchange composite index shot up 6.1 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail



CHRIS WATTIE/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney admitted yesterday his forecast for economic growth of 3.8 per cent in 2010 was overly optimistic. (Jan. 22, 2009)
Central bank cuts key interest rate to nearly zero to spur lending, but economist sees limited impact
March 04, 2009

Star Reporters

The man responsible for keeping the economy humming pushed the panic button yesterday, reducing the Bank of Canada's key interest rate to nearly zero in hopes of getting consumers buying again.

Governor Mark Carney cut the central bank's trend-setting overnight rate by a half-point to a record low of 0.5 per cent. The move is intended to help revive the struggling economy by encouraging borrowing, spending and investment.

Following the Bank of Canada's lead, the Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Toronto Dominion Bank, CIBC and the Bank of Nova Scotia cut their prime rates – the borrowing rate charged to their most creditworthy customers – by one-half of a percentage point to 2.5 per cent.

Amid a crippling global economic downturn, the Bank of Canada has made a series of rate cuts since December 2007 in an effort to restart the stalled economy.

Now it has little room for further cuts. Some analysts expect Carney to halve the current rate to .25 per cent, as the United States has done. But going all the way to zero would disrupt short-term lending markets for technical reasons, economists say.

"The tank is getting empty," said Toronto economic consultant Dale Orr.

The Bank of Canada's decision came a day after news that Canada's economy contracted at an annual rate of 3.4 per cent in the last three months of 2008, the worst performance since 1991.

That was the latest in a stream of grim economic news from December, including a record loss of 129,000 jobs, a 47 per cent spike in bankruptcies and a trade deficit of $458 million, the first since 1976.

In a statement yesterday, Carney acknowledged he had been overly optimistic when he predicted in January the Canadian economy would start to recover in mid-2009 and turn in growth of 3.8 per cent next year.

"National accounts data for the fourth quarter of 2008 and other indicators of aggregate demand point to a sharper decline in Canadian economic activity'' in the first half of 2009 than the Bank projected in January, Carney said.

"Potential delays in stabilizing the global financial system'' and a larger-than-expected erosion of business and consumer confidence could delay a recovery until early 2010, he said.

"I think it's quite obvious, even though they didn't put a number on it, that they've scaled back their growth forecast for the economy this year, and likely in 2010 as well,'' said BMO Capital Markets deputy chief economist Doug Porter.

While economists doubt Carney had little choice but to slash rates further, some question whether this traditional central banker's tool for expanding the amount of money circulating in the economy is very useful in the current slump.

"If financial institutions are reluctant to lend and consumers and businesses are reluctant to borrow, then lowering interest rates may not do much to stimulate the economy," said United Steelworkers economist Erin Weir.

Scotiabank CEO Rick Waugh said at his bank's annual meeting in Halifax that the lower interest rate is "a step forward'' for the economy but insisted the No. 1 priority is to stabilize the world financial system.

The central bank said the key overnight rate "can be expected to remain at this level or lower" until there are "clear signs" that the economy is beginning to perform closer to its normal capacity. The next rate-setting is April 21.

But, with its interest-rate ammunition all but spent, the central bank said it will be looking at other measures to ease the credit crunch that caused the Canadian economy to slow so drastically.

With files from the Star's wire services




Kill Spyware Instantly!

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Wow, new lows OUCH!

RTGAM






For a short time on Tuesday afternoon, major North American stock market indexes poked their heads into positive territory, posting their first gains in a long, long time. Alas, that didn't hold: The S&P 500 registered its 11th loss in 12 trading sessions, falling deeper into multi-year lows on waning hopes for an economic recovery any time soon.


Still, perhaps investors can take consolation from the fact that Tuesday's losses were among the slightest of the lengthy losing streak. The S&P 500 closed at 696.33, down 4.49 points, or 0.6 per cent - closing below the 700-point level for the first time since 1996. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 6726.02, down 37.27 points, or 0.6 per cent.


General Electric Co. fell 7.8 per cent, closing just a penny above $7 (U.S.). Home Depot Inc. fell 5.2 per cent and Coca-Cola Co. - widely considered a defensive stock for being able to weather economic storms - fell 2.2 per cent and touched a new 52-week low.


General Motors Corp. fell 1 per cent after it reported that U.S. auto sales plunged 53 per cent year-over-year in February - though at this point the share price is really just a bet on whether the auto maker survives. Ford Motor Co. fell 3.7 per cent after its February sales fell 48 per cent.


There was some hope that the U.S. administration's release of more details on its plan to buy up distressed assets would remove some uncertainty lingering over the financial sector. It did, sort of: Citigroup Inc. rose 1.7 per cent.


However, investors put greater emphasis on the latest appearance by Ben Bernanke, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, at the Senate banking committee, where he said that the impact of the U.S. administration's stimulus package is subject to "considerable uncertainty, reflecting both the state of economic knowledge and the unusual economic circumstances that we face."


Ugh. As Bob O'Brien, author of Barron's Stocks To Watch Today, put it, saying that the economy won't recover until the banking system improves is "like two drunks locked at the shoulders trying to hold each other up."


In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index closed at 7631.62, down 55.89 points, or 0.7 per cent, despite aggressive moves by the Bank of Canada to stimulate the economy by cutting its key interest rate to just 0.5 per cent.


An early rally among financial stocks, following upbeat earnings reports from Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal, fizzled later in the day. BMO rose 2.4 per cent but Scotiabank ended the day flat; Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce fell 4.9 per cent and Manulife Financial Corp. plunged 11 per cent, briefly falling below $10 a share.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Canada banks cut prime rates by 50 basis points

UPDATE 1-Canada banks cut prime rates by 50 basis points
Tue Mar 3, 2009 10:35am EST

*BMO leads the pack, cuts prime to 2.5 percent

*Other banks also match Bank of Canada rate cut

March 3 (Reuters) - Canadian banks cut their prime lending rates on Tuesday after the Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, cut its key interest rate by a half-point to a record low of 0.5 percent.

The banks showed no reluctance to pass along the full 50- basis-point reduction in the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, in contrast to their more cautious approach in the autumn.

Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) led the pack in lowering its prime rate to 2.5 percent from 3.0 percent.

The other larger players -- Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), TD Canada Trust (TD.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and National Bank of Canada (NA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) -- also cut their prime rates to 2.5 percent.

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate as expected, and signaled for the first time that it may resort to quantitative easing in the future.

The central bank also acknowledged that its latest projections for the Canadian economy now look optimistic in the light of the latest economic data, showing that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The prime rate determines what banks charge on a host of loans and credit products, including some mortgages.

Canadian bank stocks rose in early trade on Tuesday but some of them later turned lower following a drop in Toronto's main stock index .GSPTSE.

(Reporting by Chakradhar Adusumilli in Bangalore, Editing by Dinesh Nair)

© Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Serenity now! Serenity now! Serenity now!

Serenity now!

RTGAM


Stocks took a beating on Monday, and while there were few clear reasons why investors scrambled for an exit - beside the usual assortment of dismal economic news, government bailouts and fears of shareholder dilution - the damage was clear: Major indexes plunged to new lows in an all-out rout that hit just about everything.


The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 6763.29, down 299.64 points, or 4.2 per cent, carving out a new 12-year low. All 30 stocks fell. The broader S&P 500 closed at 700.82, down 34.27 points, or 4.7 per cent, to its lowest level since 1996. In both cases, the one-day declines were the worst since Feb. 10.


Defensive stocks were a mixed blessing: Yes, they outperformed the broader index, but they, too, suffered. McDonald's Corp. fell 0.8 per cent, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. fell 2.4 per cent and Procter & Gamble fell 2.7 per cent. Remember, those were the best performers on the Dow.


Meanwhile, some of the more economically sensitive stocks were hammered out of impatience that the U.S. economy - and the global economy, for that matter - was showing no signs of recovering from deep gloom. Citigroup Inc. fell 20 per cent, Alcoa Inc. fell 11.9 per cent, General Electric Co. fell 10.7 per cent and Boeing Co. fell 6.1 per cent.


In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index suffered even steeper losses than its U.S. counterpart due to its heavier exposure to weak energy stocks. The index closed at 7687.51, down 435.51 points, or 5.4 per cent - blasting through its Nov. 20 low and ending back where it was in late 2003. It was its biggest one-day setback since Dec. 1.


Financials did not fare well, following meltdowns in the sector around the world. Royal Bank of Canada fell 3.1 per cent, Bank of Nova Scotia fell 5.9 per cent and Manulife Financial Corp. fell 10.2 per cent.
However, energy stocks were the biggest drags after the price of crude oil fell to $40.15 (U.S.) a barrel, down $4.61. Suncor Energy Inc. fell 10.2 per cent and EnCana Corp. fell 6.2 per cent.



Even gold producers were unloved, a shift from their usual pattern of moving in the opposite direction to the broader market. Barrick Gold Corp. fell 5.6 per cent and Goldcorp Inc. fell 5.7 per cent even though gold dipped only slightly, to $940 an ounce. In other commodity moves, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. fell 9.4 per cent.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

PDP-T Initiates process to sell Argentinean assets

WebBroker Select Company News Alert
========================
Petrolifera Petroleum reports lower reserves and pre-tax present values for year ended December 31, 2008; Initiates process to sell Argentinean assets

cnw

CALGARY, March 2 /CNW/ - Petrolifera Petroleum Limited (PDP - TSX) announces today it has received the estimates of the company's 1P ("Total Proved"), 2P ("Total Proved plus Probable") and 3P (Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible) reserves, as prepared by GLJ Petroleum Consultants of Calgary, Alberta ("GLJ") in a report with an effective date of December 31, 2008 ("GLJ 2008 Report"). The company's reserves declined on a year over year basis, reflecting 2008 production and sales, technical revisions primarily arising from some current complications with the efficiency of the company's waterflood at Puesto Morales Norte in the Neuquen Basin, Argentina, offset positively by modest recognition of reserve additions through exploration and improved recovery in Argentina and by the initial recognition of reserves for the company in Colombia.

The GLJ 2008 Report and the estimates provided herein were prepared using assumptions and methodology guidelines outlined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook") and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101"). Comparisons provided herein with respect to Petrolifera's reserves are to estimates contained in a report prepared by GLJ with an effective date of December 31, 2007 ("GLJ 2007 Report"). The GLJ 2008 Report was prepared utilizing the GLJ January 1, 2009 price forecast, effective December 31, 2008 and adjusted to Petrolifera's asset mix and specific pricing circumstances in Argentina and in Colombia. In the GLJ 2008 Report, future net revenue is calculated after deduction of forecast royalties, operating expenses, capital expenditures and well abandonment costs but before corporate overhead or other indirect costs, including interest and income taxes. The pre-tax present value of future net revenue ("present value") is calculated by GLJ using various discount rates; this release will provide undiscounted future net revenue and the 10 percent present value thereof.


All references to barrels of oil equivalent ("boe") are calculated on the basis of 6 mcf: 1 bbl. Readers are cautioned that the conversion used in calculating barrels of oil equivalent is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Furthermore, boe may be misleading if used in isolation. Future net revenues disclosed herein do not represent fair market value. Also, estimations of reserves and future net revenue to be discussed in this press release constitute forward-looking information. See "Forward Looking Information" below.

Reserve Volumes and Values

The GLJ 2008 Report estimated that, after production of approximately 2.4 million barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids, Petrolifera's 1P crude oil and natural gas liquids ("NGL") reserves decreased 25 percent to 11.3 million barrels as at December 31, 2008, compared to 15.1 million barrels at December 31, 2007. The decrease primarily reflects production and technical revisions, associated with recovery factors related to waterflood performance and offset by new discoveries of proved reserves, the majority of which are in the proved producing category. As 1P reserves declined, there is no basis for calculating reserve replacement ratios.

Petrolifera's 1P natural gas reserves also declined by almost 6 Bcf or 36 percent to 10.5 Bcf after deduction of record production in 2008 of 1.9 Bcf and the impact of technical revisions, offset by exploration discoveries.

Petrolifera's 2P crude oil and NGL reserves decreased 20 percent to 17.2 million barrels, reflecting the impact of production and waterflood related technical revisions, offset by exploration success and improved recovery at certain wells. At December 31, 2007, 2P crude oil and NGL reserves were 21.5 million barrels.

On an equivalent basis, Petrolifera's 1P reserves totaled 13.0 million boe at year end 2008 compared to 17.8 million boe in 2007, for a decrease of 27 percent. These reserves were forecast to generate $284 million of future net revenue, with an estimated pre-tax 10 percent present value ("10% PV") of $212 million.


On an equivalent basis, Petrolifera's 2P reserves were estimated to total 20.0 million boe at December 31, 2008 compared to 25.6 million boe in 2007 after production of 2.8 million boe and negative technical revisions, partially offset by new discoveries. GLJ estimates these reserves will generate $493 million of future net revenue, with an estimated pre-tax 10% PV of $328 million. The company's calculated reserve life index, calculated by dividing remaining 2P reserves at December 31, 2008 by 2008 total boe production, was approximately 7.1 years.

Petrolifera also commissioned GLJ to provide an estimate of possible reserves, which were last estimated effective December 31, 2007. GLJ estimated the company's 3P crude oil and NGL reserves to be 25.3 million barrels, with 3P natural gas reserves estimated at 24.8 Bcf and 3P equivalent reserves were estimated at 29.5 million boe. These reserves are estimated to generate $830 million of future net revenue with an estimated pre-tax 10% PV of $505 million.


The volume of possible reserves estimated at 9.4 million boe underscores continuing recognition of the development potential for both crude oil and natural gas of the lands reviewed in the GLJ 2007 Report, which included the La Pinta prospect in Colombia and the Puesto Morales/Rinconada concessions in Argentina. These estimates did not include a review of the company's undeveloped exploratory concessions at Vaca Mahuida, Puesto Guevara and Gobernador Ayalla II, all in Argentina nor of Petrolifera's exploratory holdings outside of the La Pinta prospect in Colombia and none of the company's extensive holdings in Peru.

The following tables summarize the information contained in this press release. Tables may not add due to rounding.

<<>>

Sale Process

Petrolifera also announces that its Board of Directors has authorized the company to enter in to an engagement agreement with Tristone Capital ("Tristone") of Calgary, Houston, Buenos Aires and London, whereby Tristone would immediately commence to establish a data room, which will be made available to qualifying companies. Tristone will assist Petrolifera in the sale of Petrolifera's interests in Argentina, which are primarily indirectly held by a wholly-owned Barbadian subsidiary. It would be Petrolifera's intention to sell its interests in a tax effective manner and to redeploy the proceeds in its high-potential exploration activities in Colombia and Peru, after discharging related outstanding long-term indebtedness. While Petrolifera recognizes continuing potential associated with its extensive Argentinean assets, both from an exploratory and exploitation perspective, it is the opinion of management and the company's Board of Directors that the company's holdings in Colombia and Peru have greater identified growth potential. Petrolifera's desire is to sell its Barbadian subsidiary and related assets as a going concern, with view to the purchaser providing continuing employment to the company's managerial, technical and operating staff to the fullest extent possible. Arrangements are contemplated to ensure fair and appropriate treatment under prevailing employment law to both continuing and redundant employees and contractors, should the prospective purchaser not require all of Petrolifera's current Argentinean employees and contractors on a continuing basis.

Forward Looking Information

Sunday, March 1, 2009

The fight has begun. Which side are you on?

Obama's $3.55 trillion budget proposal represents a gamble that the American people are ready for the sort of change they embraced when they elected him last November.

His goals are ambitious and it appears the only thing bigger than his ambitions are the obstacles they must clear.

Barrack AddressThat's why President Obama warned on Saturday he was bracing for a fight against powerful lobbyists and special interests who sought to pick apart the $3.55 trillion budget he wants to advance his agenda of reform. "I know these steps will not sit well with the special interests and lobbyists who are invested in the old way of doing business, and I know they are gearing up for a fight as we speak. My message to them is this: so am I," he said.

And a fight he will have. Already waves of opposition are pouring in. In a radio response, the Republicans stuck with their campaign remarks from last year, warning that Democratic spending priorities threaten to destroy the American dream that hard work can build a better life for each successive generation of citizens.

"This week, the president submitted to Congress the single largest increase in federal spending in the history of the United States, while driving the deficit to levels that were once thought impossible," said Senator of North Carolina Richard Burr.

He said Obama's budget commits the government to a billion dollars a day in interest on the debt over the next decade. "Now, instead of working hard so our children can have a better life tomorrow, we are asking our children to work hard so that we don't have to make tough choices today," Burr said. The White House predicts the United States will enter the new fiscal year with a budget deficit of $1.75 trillion - the largest since World War II, and four times the size of this year's deficit.

But Obama has pledged to cut it in half by the end of his first term. Specifically, administration officials say the annual gap between federal spending and tax collections will fall from something north of $1.4 trillion this year -- the highest since World War II -- to $533 billion in 2013. He said a page-by-page examination of the federal budget had already identified $2 trillion in potential savings over 10 years.

But when you look at it from a technical standpoint, this year's budget deficit has already been bloated by major spending in the stimulus package and various financial-sector bailouts which include expenses unlikely to be repeated in future years.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently predicted that the deficit could be halved by 2013 merely by winding down the war in Iraq and allowing some of the tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration to expire in 2011, as Obama proposed. That alone would cut the deficit to $715 billion, according to the CBO.

As Senior Republican on the Senate Budget Committee Judd Gregg (who recently withdrew as Obama's nominee to head the Commerce Department) said, "You're not getting savings if you're assuming spending that isn't actually going to occur."

Mr. John KeyLast week, we interviewed the American CEO of Canadian-listed gold junior Gryphon Gold regarding their recent Q3 results plus Obama's stimulus and his over-zealous spending. Click on the clip to the right (you may have to log in).

It's tough to side with President Obama when you're an investor and I know most of you are. But I have to admit that his stance and his utmost confidence in his proposal almost make me feel at ease despite all of the loopholes, wordplay and shortcomings of his proposed budgets. Almost.

Google Secrets

123 Chat